Citizens in the Netherlands will vote on Wednesday for a new government.
It’s going to be a mess forming a coalition.
The above from Dutch Opinion Polls.
Political Party Explanation
- VVD is the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy. VVD is led by prime minister Mark Rutte.
- PvdA is the Labour party. PvdA is in a current coalition with VVD.
- PVV is Partij voor de Vrijheid, Geet Wilders’ annti-immigraton eurosceptic Party for Freedom.
- SP is the Socialist party. SP is in opposition against the Second Rutte cabinet.
- CDA is the Christian Democratic Appeal party. From 2010 to 2012 the CDA was a junior coalition partner in a right-wing minority cabinet with the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), supported in parliament by the Party for Freedom (PVV).
- D66 is the Democrats 66 party whose main objective is to democratize the political system. It seeks to create an American-style presidential system.
- CU is the Christian Union. The CU holds socially conservative positions on issues such as same-sex marriage, abortion, and euthanasia. It is Eurosceptic while maintaining progressive stances on economic, immigration and environmental issues.
- GL is the GroenLinks (green) party. GroenLinks describes itself as “green”, “social” and “tolerant”
- SGP is the Reformed Political Party. The term Reformed is not a reference to political reform but is a synonym for Calvinism. The party favors the re-introduction of the death penalty in the Netherlands. They base this on the Bible, specifically on Genesis 9:6, “Whoso sheddeth man’s blood, by man shall his blood be shed: for in the image of God made he man.” The SGP opposes feminism, and concludes, on Biblical grounds, that men and women are of equal value (gelijkwaardig) but not equal.
- PvdD, Partij voor de Dieren, is the Party for the Animals. Among its main goals are animal rights and animal welfare, though it claims not to be a single-issue party. The party does consider itself to be a testimonial party, which does not seek to gain political power, but only to testify to its beliefs and thereby influence other parties.
- 50+, 50 Plus, is a pensioners’ interests political party.
- It takes 76 seats to form a coalition.
- All of the parties have ruled out entering a coalition that contains Geet Wilders’ PVV.
- Take away Wilders’ 24 PVV seats and another 14 seats from SP and it gets rather problematic coming up with 76 seats given the varying views.
- VVD+PvdA+D66+GL = 27+9+16+19=71
- VVD+PvdA+D66+CDA = 27+9+16+21=73
In regards to point number 3, is the CU or SGP likely to agree with the socially tolerant GL Green party?
At Least Four to Tango
In a Bellwether to European Populism, Bloomberg reports that it will take at least 4 to tango.
A coalition of 5 looks even more likely, and if PVV hits the high 20s, I wonder if it takes a coalition of 6.
Don’t Hold Your Breath
“Since World War II, it’s taken an average of 72 days to form a government. The speed record, dating from 1958, is 10 days. But be warned: A total of 208 days were required in 1977 to establish a coalition that consisted of only two parties.”
Please consider Dutch Prime Minister Denies Playing Politics Over Turkey.
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, insisted he was not trying to play politics when his government refused to let the Turkish foreign minister into the country to attend a rally over the weekend, triggering a diplomatic dispute between the two Nato members and violent protests in Rotterdam.
The dispute with Turkey escalated after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan labeled the Dutch government “fascists” and threatened sanctions. This appears to have turned what could have provided a platform for Mr. Wilders into an occasion for the Dutch government — which includes Mr. Rutte’s party and the centre-left Labour party — to show it could act firmly.
86 percent of people supported the government’s handling of the situation, according to Dutch pollster Maurice de Hond — a huge margin in a country where no party is forecast to get more than 16 percent of the vote in Wednesday’s election.
Mr. Wilders reveled in the crisis, labeling protesters a “fifth column” and calling for the deportation of those who support Mr. Erdogan.
To the right of Mr. Rutte, the leader of Christian Democratic Appeal called for the EU’s association agreement with Turkey — in place for more than a half a century — to be scrapped.
Liberal parties have made no secret of their efforts to court disaffected VVD voters, who have blanched at some of Mr. Rutte’s recent comments on immigration aimed at shoring up his party’s right flank. At the start of campaigning, Mr. Rutte took a full-page advert in a newspaper telling people who do not abide by Dutch values to “act normal or leave”.
“These elections are crucial: let us stop the domino effect, right here, this week, this Wednesday. The domino effect of the wrong sort of populism winning in this world,” he said.
Regardless of the outcome, Erdogan got precisely what he wanted: Ability to label the winning party as racists while shoring up support at home. The latter is his real goal for now.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Shows the weakness and fragility of the crumbling EU. First Brexit. Now the EU alliance admits that it is so fragile that it cannot handle visits from a few Turkish politicians on get-out-the-vote missions among their nationals. Really pitiful performance by the EU. Turkey is smart to align with the UK and Russia rather than these pathetic EU clowns. I suspect UKIP and others would agree with Erdogan on the nature of the EU.
Also shows that NATO is an outdated institution, as Trump says. Can anybody really expect Turkey’s NATO forces to come to the aid of EU countries openly hostile to Turkey? Europe is falling apart, and ready to go to war against itself once again. EU/NATO/USA have already destroyed Libya, Iraq and a good portion of the Middle East. Having accomplished that mission, what’s left nearby to destroy other than Russia and Europe itself. North Korea knows what it is doing to arm itself well and keep the EU and USA out, lest they go the way of Libya.
D’66 used to be a party that seeked to democratize the political system until 10 years ago. Led by Alexander Pechtold it advertises itself as a pro-EU fundamentalist cosmopolitical party ever since.
The previous role of D’66 has been assumed these elections by a new conservative party, FvD (Forum voor Democratie) led by legal philosopher and writer Thierry Baudet, that wants Swiss-style referenda and will probably gain a few seats already.
Nevertheless, the most likely coalition will be centred around VVD, CDA and D’66 and perhaps these three parties will rule via a minority coalition that seeks majorities with a bunch of centre and right-wing parties like the CU, 50+, SGP, FvD and VNL.
Do you suspect this coalition set-up was done on purpose so the people of a state can no longer speak with once voice?
All the time is spent arguing internally rather than looking outwards to what’s best for their nation state.
Some sort of internationlist, globalist plan to divide and rule & neuter national parliaments
So much easier thereafter to control a nation state from outside.
Sounds good, but their long history of creating coalitions makes me bet on business as usual.
Medex Man said:
Something tells me this discussion will drag on until the outcome of German elections is more clear…. its difficult to imagine Netherlands distancing itself from whatever Germany does.
By itself, the Netherlands seems to have had it with Brussels and immigration (see Geet Wilders having the biggest support, even if it falls short of majority). But the two economies (Dutch and German) are too intertwined.
If Germany leaves the EU, so will Netherlands. If Germany has a “grand coalition” and scales back its EU involvement, so will the Netherlands.
Officially German elections are not until September. But behind the scenes German political parties and voters are clearly making some serious changes. Don’t know if that means Merkel gets a pink slip, but it does seem clear that things will not continue status quo.
Merkel has already been forced to compromise (really capitulate) on immigration, crime and economic issues. This will only continue. Its the economy stupid.
If the SPD replaces the CDU as the “main party” (still part of a coalition) — they might say in papers that they are pro-EU…. but they would face the same problems Merkel does. Not enough money to prop up Brussels, too much voter anger about illegals and crime.
I don’t see the AfD forming a coalition, but they will clearly influence whomever does. Brussels will not have carte blanche in Berlin any longer.
And back to the Netherlands… the Dutch economy is heavily intertwined with Germany. IN however many months, a ruling Dutch coalition (4, 5, 6 parties?!?!?) will end up towing the German line.
(BTW — think the influence between Netherlands and Germany goes both directions, its just that the German economy is bigger)
Germans are not being offered a choice at the ballot box.
There is no real alternative being offered.
Change from Merkel will fall into the hands of Schulz and that’s more of the same, on steroids.
Medex Man said:
Its not just about the Chancellor… de facto gridlock in the Bundestag is almost a certainty, and for allocating taxpayer money that is far more relevant than debating which Brussels puppet is in the Chancellor’s office.
I wouldn’t rule out Merkel getting reelected as the least stinky jock strap in the laundry hamper… but whomever “wins” Chancellor is going to face a legislature that is not happy with the status quo.
The EU needs billions in new taxpayer money to prop itself up, and they can’t get it from France or Italy or Spain… and German courts already ruled that Germany can’t give more than EUR160 billion already allocated “without Bundestag approval”. No one in any party has been crazy enough to even ask for more funds, not even the most pro-EU politicians. Its more likely they would vote to cancel Octoberfest, I wouldn’t hold one’s breath
Looks like they found Maduros hidden Bolivars, not in the U.S. or Germany, but in the slums of Rio.
“Of 1.8 million passports requested last year, as few as 300,000 were supplied, according to Anthony Daquin, a former adviser to the Interior Ministry. Luis Florido, an opposition congressman, puts the current deficit at 3 million.”
Trader Joe said:
Rutte has the right idea…as do most nationalists. When I go to Greece, I want to see Greek culture, when I go to France I want to see French culture, etc, etc…not some mish-mosh rainbow nonsense. There is nothing wrong with embracing your history and culture — global elites think otherwise of course as it causes headaches when trying to import slavery to drive down wages.
Every european country should send ALL somalis that do not yet have citizenship back to Somalia because this is possible according to international treaties because Somalia has safe areas.
Every european country should send ALL iraqis that do not yet have citizenship back to Iraq because this is possible according to international treaties because Iraq has safe areas.
Every european country should send ALL afganistanis that do not yet have citizenship back to Afganistan because this is possible according to international treaties because Afganistan has safe areas.
Asylum has been given much too LOOSELY since stupid EU-directives on asylum processing and family re-unification made Europe much more LURING and there is in practice AUTOMATIC RENEWAL of asylum based and subsidiary protection based residence permits despite international treaties and EU-directives making it possible to NOT TO RENEW residence permits when there are safe areas in the countries the asylum seekers fled.
EASO modules and EASO training (originally developed in Sweden) should be CANCELLED and making asylum decisions should be based on the Geneve Convention and not to swedish inspired EASO (European Asylum Support Office) modules and trainings.
Asylums should be given to only GENUINELY PERSONALLY PERSECUTED people who have PROOF of persecution (to catch LIARS and CHEATS all social media and phones should be inspected by asylum bureaucrats before making a decision) and the maximum residence permit should be the EU-directive minimum of 3 years all over Europe and on every renewal the need for further protection should be examined.
The only protection to general asylum seekers with some facts that they are fleeing war like syrians should be SUBSIDIARY PROTECTION and the residence permits should be the MINIMUM of 12 months enabled by EU asylum directive and on EVERY RENEWAL the need for protection should be examined.
European welfare countries are LURING people to come with generous welfare money, free apartments, family re-unifications straight to welfare and large acceptance rates and incompetent asylum bureaucrats who believe lies and grant FAKE asylum seekers permanent residence permit based on just a facebook circulated stories that tick boxes on the EASO modules.
Then european welfare countries start worrying that people who were LURED by the welfare live on the welfare and since they have either NO skills or skills that can only get them jobs where the pay would be the same as welfare gives them they stay on welfare and get marinated on their unemployment and entitlement thinking preached by the left and start hating the country that gave them FREE LIFE and the 2nd and 3rd generations become even worse with mass school dropouts and hate of the west where they live and hate of the local people.
The immigration system and especially the asylum processing part and family re-unification part of it need to be TIGHTENED quickly and people who can not support themselves need to be sent back home instead of renewing their residence permits even when there is no justification for the renewal because there are SAFE areas int heir home country now
Giving citizenships to people on welfare needs to be STOPPED and the Denmark model where Denmark demands 4 and half years of working during the previous 5 years before one is able to apply for danish citizenship needs to bee copied by every european country.
ALL the problems Europe has with immigration and asylum seekers are caused by INCOMPETENT POLITICAL CHOICES.
European politicians need to make better political choices instead of spouting politically correct nonsense and making stupid political choices and running awway from their responsibility.
Mission Accomplished said:
INCOMPETENT POLITICAL CHOICES?
You should know that Hanlons Razor gets dull pretty quick in politics. Look up Barbara Lerner Spectre sometime.
The Dutch are as fragmented as the Italians. Talk about herding cats. At least in America we have two main parties with a bunch of coalitions. The Dutch make each coalition a party.
this one is easy…lolol The Blonde wins Big..!
Pro-government newspaper Yeni Akit stated: “The Netherlands has 48,000 soldiers while there are 400,000 Turks living there”. Islam will never integrate and the Dutch are on notice.
With that many needed in a coalition to keep the undesirable out it’s not rocket science to see its no recipe for political stability.
Next election date?
Drugshond Waf said:
Dutch politics is like playing the Ouija Board.
The outcome will be weird, but i know (for sure) it works.
I thing every Dutch politician understands (now) that the old normal guidelines or set of rules (does not apply, anymore).
It’s just a trade off in the end. And who is holding the garbage (for now = PVDA).
Irrespective of the party’s charter, the next PM needs to be a Partij voor de Dieren person. Oh, Wilbur…..
PvdA will not support your #4 and #5, as they have stated several times in the past few weeks. Hence the only four party coalition that has a small chance of being realised, seems to be VVD+CDA+D66+GL. But don’t hold your breath, I don’t see GL stepping into this. Another option is CDA+D66+GL+PvdA+SP. Here the CDA is the focal point, but its leader has said, he will not support such a left coalition.
Drugshond Waf said:
It’s just like gambling on ponies on a racetrack. 🙂
Another point: the PvdA might be decimated from 38 seats to 10-13, which will be a historic defeat. Therefore they might be inclined to lick their wounds and step aside for 4 years. Without them, many options will fall apart. I guess we could break the record of the longest coalition formation. I don’t mind: the longer it lasts, the better for our economy.
Drugshond Waf said:
And there’s no solid forecast this time (don’t care about the Poll’s). I guess 15-30 %+ is still floating (as we speak).
Maximus Minimus said:
With so many parties and particles, do the Dutch have a booklet “Politics for dummies”?