In the wake of the Dutch election yesterday, let’s review coalition math and possibilities.
The above chart from Dutch Voters Crush Hopes of Populist Wilders.
For starters, that headline is a bit over the top. Support for Rutte picked up when he adopted a much stricter stance towards immigration.
The election represented a huge shift to the Right. In Rutte Victorious in Netherlands Election: Wrong Kind of Populism? Who Really Won? I noted that Geert Wilders got nearly everything he wanted.
Today it is confirmed Wilders is the largest opposition party, the best he could have hoped for. Rutte picked up votes from Wilders when he adopted a much tougher stance towards immigration.
Clear Signal
German chancellor Angela Merkel called the result “a good day for democracy” and added that she “was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result, a clear signal”.
Indeed, there was a clear signal. Voters are fed up with immigration. The Left got trounced.
“VVD is PVV-Lite”
The D66 leader has some interesting things to say about Rutte.
Alexander Pechtold, D66’s leader. “We are getting them from all over the spectrum,” he said in The Hague. “I am aiming at the real liberal voters.” Mr. Pechtold added it was “out of the question” that Mr. Wilders could be in government, suggesting instead that a moderate coalition will emerge after months of talks involving centrist, leftwing and centre-right parties. He is scathing about Mark Rutte, the prime minister who leads the Netherlands’ current coalition government and whose People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is vying wit. Mr. Wilders’ PVV to be the largest party after the March 15 poll. The VVD is now “PVV-lite”, said Mr Pechtold.
Investigating the Coalition Math
It takes 76 to form a coalition. VVD + CDA + D66 = 71.
The Financial Times says “The centre-right CDA, which benefited from a late surge in support, spurred by populist policies such as making children sing the national anthem in schools, came third with 19 seats and will probably play a crucial role in any coalition.”
Let’s assume for a moment that the pro-EU D66 party can coexist quite nicely with the CDA, a party that wants to make school kids sing the national anthem.
Let’s also assume that D66, a party that accuses Rute of being “Wilders-Lite”, is indeed willing to be part of a grand coalition with VVD and CDA.
Another party is still needed to form that coalition!
You can rule out Wilders’ PVV. You can also rule out PvdA (labour) as it got hammered precisely because it went along with Rutte in the last coalition.
So Who Will It Be?
- CU is the Christian Union. The CU holds socially conservative positions on issues such as same-sex marriage, abortion, and euthanasia. It is Eurosceptic while maintaining progressive stances on economic, immigration and environmental issues.
- SP is the Socialist party. SP is in opposition against the Second Rutte cabinet. Is that about to change?
- GL is the GroenLinks (green) party. GroenLinks describes itself as “green”, “social” and “tolerant”
Will a eurosceptic CU party be willing to enter the coalition?
If so, and all the other parties are willing to let CU in, that hits the magic 76 on the nose. If not, the last remaining hope for a coalition is GL.
If indeed there is an agreement to form a “grand coalition” don’t expect it to be stable.
Merkel calls this mess a “clear signal”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Merkel sees a clear signal from this election the same way the democrats see a clear signal from Trumps victory last November.
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That doesn’t even make sense.
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The democrats still don’t understand why they lost nor does Merkel understand what the Dutch election results mean.
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It makes no difference, nothing has or will change.
The fact that Merkel comments on elections in another supposedly sovereign state is wrong, except for the fact EVERYTHING in EU states has to be run past Germany to check if they approve of it.
LePen is toast. “This too will pass” is the thinking at all levels.
You can take it to the bank, change doesn’t happen in EU land, more of the same. They will out wait Wilders and LePen.
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Merkel no longer matters. She should find a rock and climb under it with as much dignity as the indigenous German people will allow.
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To be replaced by a more intense version of herself, Schulz.
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Notice the letter bombs. Is this the new expression of frustration?
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“A huge shift to the right”??
It should now be patently obvious that “right” and “left” mean nothing (witness the allegedly “anti-establishment” Mr. Tsipras and his Syriza vehicle…).
The correct distinction is between degrees of ‘authoritarian’ and ‘libertarian’. The Dutch elections showed no change on this score.
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It is obvious that the CU will be involved, but it seems likely that Mark Rutte will seek additional support from other parties because a 4 party coalition consisting of VVD, CDA, D66 and CU will only have a very small majority (76 seats out of 150). That is a bit risky considering that in Dutch politics now and then disgrundled members of parliament go their own way and break away from their parties.
Rutte may for example seek extra support from the SGP (3 seats). These are even more fundamentalist protestants than the CU, but are on good terms with Rutte and have an interest in creating an centre-right policy course.
Alternatively, VVD, CDA and D66 will form a minority coalition of 71 seats supported by the CU and SGP or by the CU and the animal rights party (both 5 seats) or some combination. The last option will probbaly be preferred by D66.
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Worth a Read – https://mobile.twitter.com/Kata_basis/status/842328978283220994/photo/1
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There are also the “Other” parties who are together the fifth largest.
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German chancellor Angela Merkel called the result “a good day for democracy”
Brexit was a good day for democracy.
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And do not forget the Senate in this formation. Also, In 2 years we have an election for the Senate again. It is an indirect election but (except for a local) the same parties. The last elections, the cabinet lost its majority in the Senate. If the formation of a new cabinet takes a bit longer, and/or maybe something happens to the economy/europe, they have 1,5 / 2 years to govern before having troubles in the Senate again.
The Senate currently consists of 12 fractions/ 75 members.
VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and democracy, 13 seats)
CDA (Christian Democratic Appeal, 12 seats)
D66 (Democrats 66, 10 seats)
PVV (Party for Freedom, 9 seats)
SP (The Socialist Party, 9 seats)
PvdA (Labour Party, 8 seats)
GroenLinks (GreenLeft, 4 seats)
ChristenUnie (ChristianUnion, 3 seats)
SGP (Reformed Political Party, 2 seats)
50PLUS (50PLUS, 2 seats)
PvdD (Party for the Animals, 2 seats)
OSF (Independent Senate Group, 1 seat)
https://www.eerstekamer.nl/begrip/english_2
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I know this was posted yesterday so not many will see this comment but Merkel made the top story on Drudge this morning with this photo:
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Leave the PVV out at all costs is one quote. Any coalition will be unstable will be another. Sounds like one way or another (terrorist attack, Turkish antagonism, shariah, crime, etc) the coalition will fall apart and when it does either a new election will be forced or PVV will be invited into the fold. Merkel is as blindly utopian about the dutch elections as she is about the Islamic migrants in her country. She cares nothing for the german people. Merkel only cares about what all politicians care about..holding onto power.
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