The search for 216 votes in the House to repeal and replace Obamacare is underway. Odds appear the search will fall short, perhaps very short.

The problem for Republicans is not a single Democrat supports the bill. All 216 votes will need to come from Republicans, of which there are 237. That means there can only be 21 Republican dissents.

The New York Times has an interesting graphic on Omabacare Replacement Intentions. Let’s take a look.

If accurate, that’s all you need to know.

If you give Paul Ryan the benefit of the doubt and all the undecideds, all the concerned, and all the supporters end up voting to repeal and replace, you reach 210 votes. That is six short. So at least six of the no votes need to change their minds.

How Likely is That?

Perhaps Salil Mehta at Statistical Ideas has a quick assessment but here’s mine:

There is a far greater chance the replacement vote is delayed, postponed, or never happens at all than it passes. We will find out soon enough, as in tomorrow. That’s when Ryan has scheduled a vote.

Off the top of my head, I suggest odds of passage tomorrow are well under 5%. The odds the vote is scrapped are about even.

I suspect I overstate the scrappage odds because I rely on common sense, that Ryan will not want to have his bill go down in massive flames by a huge margin. However, relying on common sense from arrogant politicians could be asking for too much.

Poll

Regardless, the vote is moot. If by some miracle the vote passes the House, it is likely doomed in the Senate.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock