The most recent French election polls remain very tight. Four candidates have a genuine shot at making it to the final round.
The first round vote is on April 23. Yet, a huge percentage of voters still have not made up their minds who to vote for.
Another 32% to 37% plan on sitting the election out or purposely spoiling their ballot.
4.5 Percentage Points Separate Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon
Round One Confidence
How confident should Le Pen and Macron be regarding round one? Take a guess before reading further.
Support for Le Pen is relatively solid. So is support for Fillon. Hamon, Mélenchon, and Macron have issues.
33% of Macron’s alleged base may not even vote for him!
If Mélenchon can manage to hold his base while capturing support for Macron, we could see something virtually no one but me has even discussed: Le Pen vs Mélenchon in round two.
Which Way Are Undecideds Likely to Break?
To ascertain who voters are likely to switch to, assuming they switch, let’s investigate round two intent.
Macron is the clear winner in second round intent, but results vary widely.
Those intending to vote for Hamon are highly likely to support Macron in round two, assuming, of course, Macron does make it to round two. However, Hamon is only polling 8.5% now as his base has largely abandoned him already.
Despite the fact that the positions of Le Pen and Mélenchon are very similar, Le Pen presumably would pick up very little support from Mélenchon while a whopping 40% would choose to sit the election out in protest.
This looks like a lukewarm hold your nose vote for Macron.
If Fillon is knocked out of round one, his support would be much more evenly split, but Macron still rates better than Le Pen.
Does Any of This Make Much Sense?
On the surface, not much.
Le Pen and Mélenchon both eject EU institutions, free trade, and NATO. Both are in favor closer ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Fillon is pro-Europe as is Macron and Hamon. But Le Pen, who is vehemently anti-Europe, rates to pick up 31% of Fillon’s vote if he is knocked out, assuming you believe the polls.
Neither Le Pen nor Mélenchon is likely to get their anti-Euro legislation passed in French parliament and that assessment may help both of them at the expense of Macron.
Le Pen vs Macron
Here’s another chart to ponder.
Given round two intentions stated above, this should have been a massive landslide Macron. But it isn’t.
The above chart is yet another sign of doubt about Macron.
Macron better not make any serious blunders in the final 12 days of round one campaigning.
Those wishing to play the game can do so at FiscalKombat.Fr.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock