The most recent French election polls remain very tight. Four candidates have a genuine shot at making it to the final round.
The first round vote is on April 23. Yet, a huge percentage of voters still have not made up their minds who to vote for.
Another 32% to 37% plan on sitting the election out or purposely spoiling their ballot.
4.5 Percentage Points Separate Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon
Round One Confidence
How confident should Le Pen and Macron be regarding round one? Take a guess before reading further.
Support for Le Pen is relatively solid. So is support for Fillon. Hamon, Mélenchon, and Macron have issues.
33% of Macron’s alleged base may not even vote for him!
If Mélenchon can manage to hold his base while capturing support for Macron, we could see something virtually no one but me has even discussed: Le Pen vs Mélenchon in round two.
Which Way Are Undecideds Likely to Break?
To ascertain who voters are likely to switch to, assuming they switch, let’s investigate round two intent.
Macron is the clear winner in second round intent, but results vary widely.
Those intending to vote for Hamon are highly likely to support Macron in round two, assuming, of course, Macron does make it to round two. However, Hamon is only polling 8.5% now as his base has largely abandoned him already.
Despite the fact that the positions of Le Pen and Mélenchon are very similar, Le Pen presumably would pick up very little support from Mélenchon while a whopping 40% would choose to sit the election out in protest.
This looks like a lukewarm hold your nose vote for Macron.
If Fillon is knocked out of round one, his support would be much more evenly split, but Macron still rates better than Le Pen.
Does Any of This Make Much Sense?
On the surface, not much.
Le Pen and Mélenchon both eject EU institutions, free trade, and NATO. Both are in favor closer ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Fillon is pro-Europe as is Macron and Hamon. But Le Pen, who is vehemently anti-Europe, rates to pick up 31% of Fillon’s vote if he is knocked out, assuming you believe the polls.
Neither Le Pen nor Mélenchon is likely to get their anti-Euro legislation passed in French parliament and that assessment may help both of them at the expense of Macron.
Le Pen vs Macron
Here’s another chart to ponder.
Given round two intentions stated above, this should have been a massive landslide Macron. But it isn’t.
The above chart is yet another sign of doubt about Macron.
Macron better not make any serious blunders in the final 12 days of round one campaigning.
Also consider French Candidate Mélenchon Launches “Fiscal Kombat”: Free Video Game on Sharing Wealth.
Those wishing to play the game can do so at FiscalKombat.Fr.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I will be at my town house near Langres on the 26th of this month so it will be interesting to see what the locals have to say. The village and most of the surrounding villages have voted for Sarkozy in the past with a fair amount of sympathy for Le Pen. It the rural areas the people are less socialist than in the larger cities. I suspect that Langres, being about 25k in population may be split in half for Le Pen and who knows for the rest. It shall be interesting.
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thanks for that reply.
It is always more interesting to see what the citizens think than what the media wants them to think.
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Having lost a good part of my Jewish family in France to the Vichy traitors, I have trouble seeing Le Pen as anything except a Nazi apologist. She will well deserve her loss.
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It is a strange mixture nowadays. You might be right with your label, and personally I don’t trust anything of modern politics – the other contenders are? Soros worked with the Nazis, Merkel had similar socialist ties, EU is non representative, some consider migration an existential threat, establishment leaders are understood to be symbolic at best….on and on and on. There is no good choice there really, so people I suppose will vote in protest, not a very good way to decide the future of a country. Trouble is various countries are headed down the drain in one way or another, which is more likely to lead to some kind of repeat of events we thought we had learnt from. Too bad, I say that in the sincere sense, Europe and ME were widely set up ok and with a positive future till @ nineties IMO, then new presence felt. We won’t get anywhere arguing this all, pretty much out of our hands anyway.
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I think her point that the Republic of France was in exile in England, and Petain’s collaborationist government was illegitimate, was very well taken. The French people, as a whole, should not have to bear the blame for the actions of the Vichy proto-nazis. Sure, some French turned in Jews. Some Americans voted for 0bama and Hillary.
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The French did not vote to end the 3rd Republic, so you cannot blame the French by majority for the Vichy government.
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Thanks Mish. Am sharing because i am french and i live in France and i know it is appreciated.
I meet more and more people who consider to vote melanchon for the first time in their life… He is the best speaker with a “sound” program. Fillon and Macron are both lukewarm next to him.
For me there is a good chance that it will be Macron / Le pen or melanchon / le pen because I think fillon can no longer convince anyone who is not already supporting him.
On the other hand, the more melanchon goes up in the polls, the more likely it might play against him in fine, because for a lot of people it’s a protest vote, and those who are republican will think of their taxes bill when they vote.
I do not believe Le pen can become president this election because the majority will rally against her to avoid racial social tensions.
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“Macron better not make any serious blunders in the final 12 days of round one campaigning.”
He’s got now so many supporters coming from all political sides that he does no more even have to blunder himself.
He won the support of Hollande today, poor boy was horrified by Melenchon’s score.
The kind of good news you do not want to hear everyday for two weeks.
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Maybe Hollande decided he would do at least one good deed before leaving office.
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Gov-app is an up and coming real-time, French vote intent tracking app. based on social media measurements. It successfully predicted Trump, Brexit and a slew of other races. Currently it gives Fillon the eventual winner with (from memory) about 70% of the votes in the second round. One thing that has not been much discussed is that Fillon is the only candidate with a parliamentary majority. Many French are likely to focus on that soon.
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