A week ago, French polls had tightened to the point where any combination of candidates could make it to the final round.
The polls are now so tight that at least one upset is arguably likely.
A mere two points separate Marine Le Pen from both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the most recent poll. Only three point separates all of them.
Average of 6 Most Recent Polls
- Macron: 23%
- Le Pen: 22.5%
- Mélenchon: 19%
- Fillon: 19.4%
On April 4 Le Pen was polling at 24.5% vs 23.5% for Macron. As recently as April 10-12 Le Pen polled at 24%.
Attacks on Le Pen by all the candidates did not help Macron. He is flat to down a half point while Le Pen is down two points.
More recently, French President François Hollande has explicitly warned about Mélenchon. At a minimum, that anti-Mélenchon attack has not hurt Mélenchon in the least.
Hollande is so unpopular, one can make a case that Hollande inadvertently helped Mélenchon.
Abstentions, Spoiled Ballots
In the for most recent polls, the average of “abstention or protest votes” is 27.25%.
I suspect the vote for Le Pen is understated, but it is also possible her seemingly solid base support is crumbling at the edges.
I am not going to predict the outcome. It is even possible for Fillon to square off against Mélenchon.
At least one surprise in the final pairing should not be a surprise at all.
- French Candidate Mélenchon Launches “Fiscal Kombat”: Free Video Game on Sharing Wealth
- Wild French Polls: Spread Between Top Four Candidates Shrinks to 4 Percentage Points
That 4-point spread is now down to 3, and the spread between the second and fourth candidates is down to 2. These numbers are easily with the margin of error on all the polls.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Longshanks (@Longshanks55362) said:
I’d wager that LePen will be in the run off.
Here’s a stellar example of accuracy in media:
Ron R (@avgamerican32) said:
Polls may be irrelevant if this is true….500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.
If I were Le Pen, I’d make a public request, of voters who received two ballots, to only use one regardless of which candidate they prefer, including Le Pen.
The article is not correct, the 500 000 are people living in France and they received a additional voting card at one of their previous address.
When you are living abroad it is the embassy that are responsible to track all expats addresses and it is very square for security reasons such as potential evacuation.
So it is not true lepen might be cheated and rather unlikely anybody will vote twice as people will need to get their card at their previous address and vote at both places on same day. Moreover they will be for sure prosecuted after the elections.
This election is the worse ever, people have no clue who to vote for since no candidates are decent.
The best one is actually melanchon…though communist so not an option for anybody reasonable.
So… in the case of a LePen win, does it become tje Russian’s fault too?
chris m said:
Latest issue of Private Eye.
Putin pledges not to meddle in the French Election.
picture of Putin;
quote:”May the best woman win”
Firstname Lastname said:
So nobody noticed an extra 500,000 ballots were printed for no reason? Or if they were printed on-demand, nobody noticed a thousand reams of ballot paper were demanded, or hundreds of toner refills were unexpectedly required? Or the postal franking process needed to accommodate a half-million more pieces? Or bags and bags (tons) of extra mail (exactly twice what had been expected) had to be taken to the post office?
Then not one of the 500,000 extra ballot recipients contacted their home country or embassy to call attention to the matter? And nobody back in France noticed duplicate ballots coming back? And France has no way (computer or manual) to verify if returning ballots are/not counterfeit copies (which would catch any duplicates)?
I know critical thinking skills are lacking in France (the Maginot Line being my favorite example), but this alleged situation is impossible. It’s also impossible that — since the alleged problem has been detected — there is no way to sort mailed-back foreign ballots in some order and manually pull the duplicates (for prosecution).
I’m not buying it.
I’ll take the opposite side just for purpose of debate:
They send 500 000 automatically, but to an old address database out of error.
They repeat but to the correct database and hope no one makes a fuss.
They send voting cards automatically. The process is that when you move you go register to the new mayor office and they are supposed to tell the previous town to erase you from the database…. And the previous town must actually erase you from the list….
French decentralised stupidity… We have more than 38k commune responsible to keep the list up to date, most are very small village with unprofessional staff.
So no ballot just a small paper voting card. And yes many french people notified their mayor office and many articles have been written in the french press about it!
Whole show sucks. Le Pen isn’t viable as she cannot escape her family origin… next best is Fillon but Macron is so screwed up people might vote for him out of sympathy.
chris m said:
looking at Macron just reminds of the Millibands in the UK
(big Dimwit Dave, and his slightly dimmer brother little Ed)
Yancey Ward said:
I will predict LePen finishes with 30% and in first place in the first round of voting, and that Macron finishes second with 25%.
In the second round, Le Pen will lose, but it will be much closer than people think, and Macron wins 51-49. It will be pyrrhic victory for Macron and the elite who support him and will, in fact, be the nail in the coffin for the establishment parties of France. The future belongs to Le Pen- her party will absorb the right and right center opposition as they will have sold their souls to get Macron over the finish line.
The UMP/Republican party don’t have much to offer, establishment/no change/not left. I find it hard to picture Macron as president, if it weren’t for EU and migration it would be ‘so what’ as he would dissapear into the day to day. FN will either build a wider identity or lose it depending on how they play the tensions, MLP is moderate ( more so than the other candidates even) but people are wary of the meaning behind her party, how far right it might be. Trump, Syria/Russia must have had an effect on voters, also day before vote there are likely to be some clashes at AFD meeting in Germany… all small influences that effect voters. Have to leave it to the French… you never know, they might decide on Le Pen this time after all.
France is a nation of tired poor huddled masses seething to leach free stuff off the working class. Several of my neighbors are prosperous French expatriates who vow never to return. Add three million illiterate Muslim Negroes.
If France like USA were asking all expats to declare and pay french tax if their local tax is below national level (100% guaranteed as this is one area french are leading) I guess your neighbours might have less reasons never to come back.
I was expats for 20 years and l loved it but am happy to be back as my parents are getting older.
Haven’t people learned anything? Go with the candidate that the establishment hates (fears). http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/le-pen-faces-disaster-election-after-monumental-computer-error
Like its working out for the USA that voted Trump and got Clinton.
The candidates falling in popularity generally lose to the candidates rising in popularity heading into the polls.
Another typical dysfunctional political system regardless of which government is finally formed from this collection of wannabes.
Mankind is slowly learning that you should keep child molesters away from children but is still clueless about keeping control freaks away from control.
Que sera, sera.
Mankind is slowly learning that he should keep child molesters away from children but is still clueless about keeping control freaks away from control.
Que sera, sera.
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chris m said:
Marine Le Pen Seems to be slipping in the polls a little, unfortunately.
looking at recent photo of Melenchon et al (Communists)
and seeing that French Prison Guards recently
went on a riot over wages or something or other
i thought that they should have an election slogan of
“give us your wallet…..or else”
Second round could be Macron (the current leader) and Melenchon (the one with the momentum). Now that would be interesting. Who would Le Pen voters support in that case?
This might urge a few people to look for a harder line before 1st round though
…but then it occurs to me that in the west empathy kisses are the Marx of self reduction to a cultured tolerant state…