On December 24, 2016, Ukraine Rebels Agreed to a New Indefinite Truce. It is the latest in many truces that neither side has honored since the Minsk Protocol, was signed on 5 September 2014.
The Minsk ceasefire agreement completely collapsed in January 2015, with renewed heavy fighting across the conflict zone, including Donetsk International Airport and Debaltsovo. A new ceasefire, called Minsk II, was agreed to on 12 February 2015.
Minsk II largely held if you don’t count near-daily artillery fire and periodic small-unit actions that have killed many hundreds on each side. However, there are numerous signs another major outbreak might be at hand.
Speculation on a renewed major outbreak comes from an April 9 Website Post by Alexander Khodakovsky.
That poster, from the preceding link, is reminiscent of a WWII call to arms. The message on the poster translates as “Join the Peoples’ Militia!”
Wikipedia notes Alexander Khodakovsky is the commander of the pro-Russian Vostok Battalion formed in early May 2014 during the 2014 insurgency in the Donbass. Khodakovsky is a former commander of the Alpha special unit of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). During the 2014 insurgency in the Donbass, he left Ukrainian state service and became the leader of the pro-Russian “Patriotic Forces of Donbass” in Donetsk Oblast, and later (until July 16, 2014 when he was replaced by Vladimir Antyufeyev) the Security Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
Reader Jacob Dreizin emailed that other warning signs of a potential offensive include an intense barrage of warlike statements from Ukrainian officials including the Interior Minister and the National Security Council chief, as well as social media chatter from individuals claiming to be local residents, about unusually intense Ukrainian military aircraft activity to/from the Kramatorsk airfield (about 30 miles from the frontline) and other locations in the Ukraine-controlled part of the Donbass.
In other posts, Khodakovsky speaks of unusually heavy concentrations of Ukrainian material near the front, and warns that Ukraine is likely to launch an offensive soon, with an eye to victory before or around May 9th, a day which has symbolic significance as it is not only the start of the Eurovision contest (hosted in Kiev this year) but also “Victory Day” in Russia and the former USSR, such that deciding the war on Kiev’s terms around this date would deliver a major psychological blow to the Russian government and to all pro-Russians in Ukraine.
An April 10 Khodakovsky Article is even more ominous. Here are a few paragraphs translated by Jacob Dreizin.
What is humane? To remain silent or to talk about the coming war?
There are many more important signs that allow me to make a preliminary conclusion: War is on the doorstep. Do I have the right to say this? I must.
I think that before Easter the enemy will not go on the offensive – Not everything that can kill us has yet been dragged up to the front. But the process is ongoing. In Kramatorsk, combat airplanes and helicopters are landing at the military airfield almost every day. High-caliber weapons, such as Tochka-U’s [short-range ballistic missiles, of the sort Ukraine already used in 2014], are also arriving. In Lugansk, even the well-heeled moles of the OSCE [European monitors] have confirmed the redeployment from permanent stations of almost 100 heavy combat vehicles, which have crawled closer to the front. I think they want to organize a celebration for us for May 9th, so that we won’t have a third parade [Donetsk held May 9th parades in 2015 and 2016].
Be a little concerned, remembering that the war is not somewhere far away, but on the borders of the city. If full-scale battles commence, then this time it won’t be like in 2014. Most likely, not one border crossing to Ukraine will be able to function. The south will be set aflame, and that direction will be closed. There will be only one way left – to Torez and Snezhnoe, or maybe to Amvroseevka as well, to the border, to which civilians will be scrambling. And they will get stuck, becoming easy targets for random fire.
Think with your head and take care of yourself.
Igor Strelkov Comments
More definitive comments come from Igor Strelkov, who initiated the military phase of the Donbass revolt by claiming Slaviansk with a platoon-sized force on April 12th, 2014, then kept half of Ukraine’s combat-capable forces pinned down there until early July 2014, providing critical time for the rebels and their Russian advisors to secure the border and organize additional militia units in other parts of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Although Strelkov was forced to return to Russia by his own side in August 2014 (likely due to conflicts with Khodakovsky among others), he is a hero to Russia’s hard-nationalist camp and claims to maintain good contacts in Donetsk according to Jacob Dreizin.
On April 4th, Strelkov posted on his social media page, as translated by Dreizin: “In the course of the coming month, I anticipate very serious events with a totally unpredictable outcome. I have sufficiently firm grounds on this. There will be no additional comments.”
On April 13th, without referring to his April 4th post, Strelkov wrote the following as translated by Dreizin: “Near Donetsk—a savage artillery battle with losses on both sides. The concentration of Ukrainian forces and material in the immediate rear is either complete or close to completion. On the front line, in all the main sectors, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been replaced with National Guard. Aviation is concentrated on near-frontline airfields. Both sides await Easter. There are a lot of rumors about the start of large-scale battles either during the holiday or immediately after.”
If truly large-scale fighting breaks out (for the first time since the winter of 2014-2015) it would likely be contained within the former provincial borders of Donetsk and Lugansk, since going beyond those borders would —as Strelkov stated on YouTube — require large-scale, Russian Federation involvement, including a call-up of Russian reserves that we have not yet seen.
A postponement is possible if someone in Washington or Europe put their foot down on Kiev, as Chancellor Merkel did in August 2015. Otherwise, it’s pretty clear both sides are preparing for war.
From the point of view of Kiev, there may be no better time than the present because the West is already cooling towards Russia.
Correction
The translation of the April 10 Khodakovsky Article has been revised from everyone will be scrambling to civilians will be scrambling.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“Ukraine is likely to launch an offensive soon, with an eye to victory before or around May 9th…”
Despite the insistence of the West, there were no Russian regular forces helping the Donetsk ‘republics’ during the last outbreak of major violence. However, if Ukraine does start a major offensive now, it is quite likely Russia will intervene militarily as they did in S. Ossetia in 2008. Russia has put its name on the cease fire, as they did in S. Ossetia, and that would be the pretext. Russia might also formally recognize the ‘republics’.
Moreover, even Poroshenko has admitted there was a coup against Yanukovich in 2014 which means Yanukovich could declare himself the legitimate President of Ukraine and ask the Russians to come in and fully restore him. It could all be over quickly.
Recently, Rex Tillerson asked the European leaders why the US should care about Ukraine. I am not sure he was satisfied with the answer.
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This is one for Britain to keep a very low profile on too if we have any sense, which is doubtful.
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I wish our leaders would mind our own business a bit more.
McMaster is trouble, big mistake Trump hiring him.
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If they do go for another offensive, it will probably be strike 3. The only thing encouraging them go for a third offensive after the “success” of the last two is if they are being advised and supported by outside puppet masters.
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“if they are being advised and supported by outside puppet masters”
Gosh, ya’ think? Welcome to Cold War v2.0 aka The Battle of Competing Oligarchies.
Why Russia Resents Us
May 2, 2016 – Patrick Buchanan (representing what “conservative” used to mean)
http://buchanan.org/blog/russia-resents-us-125183
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Prophetic:
NATO Expansion: A Dangerous Folly
July 8, 1997 – Patrick Buchanan
http://buchanan.org/blog/pjb-nato-expansion-a-dangerous-folly-376
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NATO Expansion: Unnecessary and Provocative
April 30, 1998 – Patrick Buchanan
http://buchanan.org/blog/pjb-nato-expansion-unnecessary-and-provocative-273
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We’ve got our dirty little finger in every international conflict throughout the globe. And it’s not a secondary finger. It’s a primary finger.
I’m very disappointed with Trump on meddling in all this foreign acrimony. When I attended his rally he gave the audience the distinct impression that he intended to get us out of these global hotbeds and concentrate on matters domestic. Regardless whether it involves the ME, Korea, China, Africa, Ukraine, Russia (and on and on and on) we’re always the first ones in and the last ones out. Let some other nations take the lead for once. Let them fight and kill themselves. Why do we always have to play the part of John Wayne?
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“Let them fight and kill themselves.”
This is always the sentiment Americans show, as if the people there are the problem, always at war with one another in millenia old sectarian and ethnic conflict. Nothing is further from the truth. Sunni’s and Shia have co-existed with Christians, Armenians, Kurds, Druze, Sufi’s, Yezidi’s, Assyrians, etc etc for millenia, despite the waxing and waning of empires and their wars of conquest. The Jewish community in Baghdad survived for 2600 years before being forced out in this century. All these wars are carefully nursed into flames by outside forces that supply tinder, oxygen, encouragement, and ammunition hoping to score elusive geo-political points and influence. Ukrainians and Russians are the same people, albeit that various factions have different cultural and political ideals, as is the case everywhere and always. Without interference from the EU, NATO, the CIA and the state department, the Ukraine would not be in its curent straits. The US is not playing the part of John Wayne, riding to the rescue. The US is playing the role of Richard III.
Although Americans like to think of themselves in terms of freedom and the first Amendment, the truth is that the US has continually intervened in its own back yard (starting in Haïti when George Washington and Jefferson sided with the side of oppression, afraid of contagion as they were), always siding with the wealthy and powerful and narrow business interests against popular dissent. After WW2 they started doing this around the world: Saudi is a perfect example, where a backwards medieval monarchy with the same judicial style as ISIS is kept in the saddle with American support and has spread terror and Islamic fundamentalism around the globe. Within the country itself, there have been numerous paroxysms (such as the McCarthy period) when people have been villifed, imprisoned, and executed as traitors for voicing their thoughts about the social-economic order within American society. America is not a shining light on a hill, but a Mordor-like empire headed by flaming hypocrites.
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Thank you for your opinion but I think it’s a little over the top.
Humans were killing each other off by the millions long before America showed up on the scene. You give the impression that the world would be a beacon of peace and harmony if not for the Americans. I disagree. Go check out a world history text from the library on some lazy Sunday afternoon and read all about man’s inhumanity to man. That’s what half the book would be about.
America is far from being a nation of peace activists. I’ll grant you that. I abhor our widespread intervention into the private affairs of other countries. And I agree it’s only grown worse in recent years. My grade school teachers used to tell me that we had to stop the Soviets because they were engaged in nation building. And if we didn’t stop them we’d be next. I fast forward 6 decades and we have become them. The ‘domino theory’ is alive and well in our own backyard.
But if we weren’t around there would still be wars and people massacring other people. It’s the nature of the beast. We just add to the chaos – and lately more than most.
One of these days we’ll get knocked off the hill and another big dog will take our place.
History repeats. It’s not us. It’s the beast.
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I never said only Americans engage in violence. Fact is thought tha many of these communities have survived 2 millenia and are only now being eliminated. That should make you think. Americans may not be doing all the violence themselves, but their interference creates chaos and imbalances and leads to really really bad outcomes. This is at odds with the public projection of humanitarian intervention and bringing democracy. The Roman Empire insisted for 1000 years that they were waging (pre-emptive) defensive wars; that seems rather at odds with the perception of other peoples. I certainly don’t think there would be peace and harmony without Americans, but in most cases the geo-political games, regime change, and other attempts to influence the course of history has lead to disaster, whether intentional or not.
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“Why do we always have to play the part of John Wayne?”
America is the current version of the Roman Empire. The names are millennia removed, but the plot line remains the same.
When the Soviet Union crashed and burned, the U.S. reached the pinnacle of its life as an empire, the world’s only super power. Once at the top of the mountain, the only direction is down, as is the case with any cycle that has reached the 90 degree mark. Russia is resurgent, having hit its post soviet trough. China is an ascending empire. The competition to the U.S. empire is now increasing.
Since Baker told Gorbechev NATO would not take one step east, the push has been to move NATO to the Russian border, which Ukraine sits next to. Thus the U.S. is being John Wayne, in an attempt to isolate Russia from Europe. it’s all about empire.
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Militia tends not to be overly effective versus front line combat troops. Its mostly useful for garrisoning captured territory. They need to train their troops well, and equip them properly, if they want to win.
Ukraine is turning into a long war of attrition. Eventually the people on one or both sides will say enough. Bring our children home. The Russian people learned during the Mongol holocaust that they must win no matter what, but Ukraine is not the Mongol horde. No one will follow them back to their cities if they withdraw.
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“No one will follow them back to their cities if they withdraw.”
Really?
WW2 ended 72 years ago and the Cold War ended 26 years ago but the US & NATO continue to up the ante on Russia.
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EU now has about 1Bn euros per annum for foreign affairs.
It ignored Dutch vote against EU-UKRAINE arrangement.
Let them sort it out, their baby.
https://rusi.org/event/David-Owen-EU-Referendum
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It is a very important starting point to remember Ukraine was and is a failed state. Sadly, neocons in Washington are trying to repaint that picture and ignoring reality. The best way for the West and Kiev to prove they are on the right path is by letting the eastern part of the country seceded and then making Kiev a center of economic and democratic success. The article below argues throwing arms into the area will only bring about more death.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/02/ukraine-was-and-is-failed-state.html
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You can bet there is a Trump calculation behind this. They see Trump being forced to show a strong hand against Russian interests and are betting they can show images of dead children with the fingerprints of Russian hands and it will be enough to get the US involved far more deeply.
There is a dangerous game going on. We may succeed, right or wrong, but if we fail it will be deadly for everyone.
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What would Victoria Nuland advise Trump to do?
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Another massive obama mess left for Trump to sort out.
You would think the Noble Peace Prize winning obama would not have started so many bitter conflicts . …
Or maybe even would have tried to leave the world or more peaceful place…
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Trump to sort out: 20% probability, Trump to continue and expand: 80% probability.
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The stakes are high. My thought is to increase the rate of my PM stacking.
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Mish, please drop the “pro-Russia” neologism. Of course they are pro-Russian — they are Russian. Nobody calls the French pro-French or the Dutch pro-Dutch. These are the same kind of Ministry of Truth neologisms the Western press introduced (and dropped instantaneously after the Dayton accords) with respect to Bosnian Serbs and Serbian Croats, etc., when you could hear the people themselves using shorthand on TV news: Turk, Chetnik, Fascist. Pro-Russia sounds like this is some kind of geo-political ideological war, when in fact the ethnic Russian population is simply defending their right to their own language, culture, and destiny.
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Have you been sleeping? The whole point of globalism is to eliminate our rights to ANY culture and our destiny is determined by THEM not the people actually affected. This worldwide chaos is a deliberate “blender” forcing disparate cultures together in an effort to eliminate individual identity. Sure, they claim to promote all these different cultures as “multiculturalism” but it real effect is to destroy traditional cultures and replacing them with a new construct defined by a centralized government.
There is a reason why this is happening, and it is NOT in pursuit of cultural rights or identity beyond introducing more conflict to create more chaos.
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Have you considered that maybe 10-12 thousand years ago, when agriculture and settlements were developing, that those settlements were relieved of the population limits of forager tribes and because of survival pressures, had to incorporate nearby predatory forager tribes and eventually expand their area of control by incorporating nearby competing/predatory settlements?
That because of marauding hunter-gatherers and like-minded nearby expansionist settlements, man embarked on a path to the greatest of all his evils: a world government?
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“Nobody calls the French pro-French or the Dutch pro-Dutch.”
They are EUers, not really French or Dutch anymore.
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“Bring our children home”??
For the people of the Donbass, they are already home.
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ANOTHER war?
Will McCain be able to contain his pleasure?
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McCain is still “hot-shotting” his mouth off like he did many decades ago when he repeatedly crashed and became a war HERO. He still wants to get it on with the USSR, even if they don’t exist anymore.
It is rather odd that so many are defining Russia’s supposed attempt to reacquire their prestige as a world power as inherently evil, when the US seems intent on dominating the world, even if leading from behind. Many have bemoaned Obama’s pursuit of America decline in world domination, our lack of “assertion” militarily around the world, his “leading from behind”, but what is failed to recognize is that his methods created more destabilization than a full on military conflict agenda would have done. The world is in chaos and it is not an accident. Obama “lead from behind” in the same way as our intelligence agencies do…indirectly so as to minimize THEIR fingerprints….pushing their agenda while pretending it is someone else’s.
This world chaos is a deliberate means to an end….control. There is NO chaos in the world that America’s government has not played a role in creating. War does not create chaos in it’s conclusion. Germany and Japan seemed to do just fine, but create conflict without end that can span decades, and it fulfills so many needs that it is no wonder that no war has concluded in sixty years.
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I hope he gets excited enough to blow out some blood vessels in his head.
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Holodomor, repopulation of Ukraine with Russians, and extermination of Tatars was popular with Russians. Russians think they own Donetsk, Lugansk, and Crimea. All three regions are consequently scorched earth without electricity, industry, water, coal, schools, and jobs. The price of oil consequently collapsed and all Russians are not eating well until they leave Ukraine. Russians do not need to understand the linkage between their poverty and military incursions of their neighbors. The world is content to laugh at Russians.
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Russians do not need to understand the linkage between their poverty and military incursions of their neighbors. The world is content to laugh at Russians.
What a Fing hoot
The US f*d up Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Overthrew an elected Shah of Iran to impose a US puppet and steal oil, and you write nonsense like that. Mind you, the US reneged on a commitment to not put Ukraine in NATO. The US fomented the civil war in Ukraine, and idiots like you bitch about Russia. Note that instead of meddling half-way around the world as the US does, Russia ventures very little. Finally, the people in those regions of Ukraine identify far more with Russia than Kiev if given a choice. Crimea is proof.
Please get a grip on reality before spouting nonsense.
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I detect a great skill for writing fiction in your post.
Maybe you should take up writing romance novels.
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I thought Ukraine was broke? Are the Rothschilds lending money to the goyim slavs to eradicate each other?
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