UK prime minister Theresa May shocked the UK by calling for snap elections after stating just last month she would not do so.
In response, the British Pound soared.
The Labour Party is going to get smacked hard in the June election, and May will have free rein to do whatever she wants in the Brexit negotiations.
Snap Election Speech
Flash Crash to the Upside
The Wall Street Journal reports Sterling Soars After U.K.’s Theresa May Calls Early Election.
Deutsche Bank, analysts at which were among the most negative on the pound, referred to Ms. May’s announcement as a game-changer for sterling and dropped its two-year recommendation for clients to sell the currency. The pound had slumped before Mrs. May’s surprise announcement Tuesday morning in London, then rose sharply and leapt again in the evening.
Alan Ruskin, co-head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, described the late sudden move as a “flash crash to the upside,” with the pound surging higher “and briefly nobody on the other side.”
U-Turn
The Guardian reports General election 2017: poll suggests voters back Theresa May U-turn.
Theresa May has stunned her colleagues, commentators and the country by announcing that there will be a general election on 8 June. This means the public will be asked to take part in a major poll less than a year after the EU referendum. The next seven weeks will allow May, who became prime minister without winning an election and whose premiership until now has been dominated by Brexit, to set out in full her vision for the domestic policy. The campaign and the result are likely to have far-reaching consequences not just for government policy over the next five years, but for Brexit, for the Labour party and for the union with Scotland too.
Potential Landslide
The Conservatives go into the general election riding high in the polls and confident of returning with an overwhelming majority. The latest clutch of opinion polls have put the Tories more than 20 points ahead of Labour suggesting they could be on course for a landslide.
General Election is ‘Foregone Conclusion’
Here is one poll you can believe: General Election is ‘Foregone Conclusion’.
A Times/YouGov poll published on Monday put the Conservatives on 44% and Labour on 23%, giving May a 21-point lead – the same as a weekend Comres survey and the highest for the Tories in government since May 1992.
The first poll published after the election announcement confirms the picture. The Guardian/ICM poll put the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 26%, Ukip on 11, the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 4%.
The outright Tory victory in the 2015 general election led to a mixture of anger and contempt showered on the polling companies which had spent six weeks indicating that a second coalition was the most likely outcome. No polling organization came close to the seven-point lead in the share of the vote that the Conservatives actually achieved and there were calls for them to be placed under state regulation.
Coral’s Latest Odds for Most Seats
A UK General Election 2017 Telegraph Poll Tracker indicates Theresa May could win a huge Tory majority in Parliament. Here are the latest odds.
- Conservative – 1/12
- Labour – 10/1
- Lib Dems – 28/1
- Ukip – 100/1
- Greens – 500/1
The Telegraph offers a word of caution “the race could change dramatically once the party manifestos have been launched and the campaign starts in earnest.”
Here’s a hint. The polls won’t change dramatically, but even if they do, the Tories are guaranteed to pick up far more seats than they have now.
Duty to Stop Theresa May!?
The most ridiculous idea of the day in regards to the snap election comes from Guardian writer Anne Perkins who says This is no general election, it’s a coup – MPs have a duty to stop Theresa May
Theresa May has turned democracy against itself. She has been seduced by the siren evidence of the 20-point lead in the polls, and she will have a general election, the one she said again and again that she would not call. And it will almost certainly return her with a thumping majority that will allow her to run the Brexit negotiations just as she wants.
There will be no obligation on her to reflect the views of the minority position. She will leave the remainers of England disempowered. She has made a Scottish referendum inevitable, and a border poll in Northern Ireland infinitely more likely. She is resetting politics in a way that will entrench division. We will all rue this day.
Amazing Comeupance
Perkins does not like the Brexit vote. That is her prerogative. But to equate giving people a chance to vote to a “coup” is ridiculous, depending of course on the definition one uses.
Given the above paragraphs, especially Perkins’ preposterous statement “We will all rue this day,” it is contextually clear she refers to definition one, clearly a preposterous idea.
Along similar lines, let’s discuss her idea that a “border poll in Northern Ireland is infinitely more likely”. For that to be the case the odds had to be 0% before and any positive number now. One in a quadrillion will suffice.
I suggest Perkins needs both a math lesson and an English lesson. The irony of her post is that she is the one symbolically calling for a coup that would ignore voter intentions.
Perfect Timing
It’s perfectly clear what this is all about.
Theresa May has a chance to smash Labour and she will do just that. At the same time, she can toss the Liberal Democrats under the bus for good, and that’s where they belong.
Instead of having to deal with bickering from the Left and Right while holding a tiny majority, May has a chance to stop the infighting and has taken it.
How the snap elections turn out in practice is up to May herself. I suggest May deserves a chance.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The pound soared but the FTSE tanked. It looks like a good move as long as the voters really do see it at least partly as a move to strengthen Britain’s position in the Brexit negotiations and not just an opportunistic attempt to cement May’s role as PM – a position she was not elected to. But it could backfire horribly if stock markets world-wide decide this is the time to take an overdue dive.
Screw stockmarkets. The average UK voter doesn’t watch the markets. FTSE 100 slipped as it’s heavily weighted to earners in foreign currencies. So be it.
Anyone worried about the impact on the markets shouldn’t be in the markets concerned.
UK isn’t that important anyway. Move on. My concern is for UK manufacturers but a high per centage of raw materials are imported anyway.
The people bitching about a stronger GBP are the same ones bitching when it fell.
2 considerations.
1) Will pro-brexit Labour MP seats remain Labour?
2) How will the Lib Dems perform?
It’s the Lib Dems that need to be totally destroyed. They are anti-democratic.
May has little choice as the EU do not take her seriously as her majority is so slim and there are many pro-EU Tory backbenchers able to stab her in the back.
She needs a strong mandate to be strong at the negotiating table and stamp authority on any arrangements.
From pure anecdote, there is a sense the UK needs a quiet revolution. More autonomy for the regions, a Federal set-up replacing the House of Lords, a vision for where we want to be.
As the EU centralises and harmonises we may head the opposite way.
Some of the changes are of the type that could have helped maintain the North American colonies as part of a Commonwealth. Sometimes less control equates to stronger ties when people of goodwill are able to share in a better give take relationship.
I also expect this to lead to a harder Brexit. No deal. Walk and adapt to the shock to the economy thereafter.
It’s time to pull together or we wither away.
“It’s the Lib Dems that need to be totally destroyed.”
This is a bit off-topic, but recently, some Lib Dems have sent a letter to the Home Secretary asking that Syrian 1st Lady Asma Assad’s citizenship be revoked. Asma, who is Assad’s wife and a Sunni (he is an Alawite) is British and highly educated with degrees in computer science and French literature. She has worked as an investment banker and had been accepted in an MBA program at Harvard before marrying Assad. The Assads could live comfortably in many countries as both speak several languages.
Who cares when we can’t remove foreign criminals from our own soil under ECHR – European Court of Human Rights?
Assads wife? Has she murdered anyone?
What about Blair? Should he have citizenship removed and/or be on trial? I think so.
Farron, Lib Dems leader, refuses to say homosexuality is not a sin in order to appease UK Islamists. Who is the Ass Hole?
Lib Dems as they currently are are pro-EU, anti democratic and pro-Islamic in my book.
They need to be trounced to help the country sort itself out.
She asks now for a clear Brexit mandate.
But she got her mandate! It was called the referendum.
This does not pass the smell test. It is a globalist set-up.
“But she got her mandate! It was called the referendum.”
May was Home Secretary and a soft supporter of remaining in the EU when the Brexit vote was taken. She became PM after Cameron resigned. This would be her first election as PM. The polls (from what I have read) show much more support for Brexit now than during the referendum so this should help Brexit, not hurt it (assuming she wins).
No, it’s needed. If she loses there will be chaos but the current status quo won’t work. A risk either way.
The House of Lords and BBC need root and branch reform – for starters.
Many, many other changes needed.
Imagine the UK having the strongest popular mandate in Gov vs outcome of German and French elections. It might set an example or at least give the UK a more unified voice at the table and the chance to walk away with the populace on side.
There is another possible dynamic across the channel. French elections are being held this Spring. UK elections will draw attention to leaving the EU, so LePen’s candidacy benefits.
Things are really starting to line up against Germany.
The aim is to consolidate her party going into negotiations and further legitimise her own position. This is a clear advantage UK has over the EU framework, that does not even try to pretend democratic process is possible amongst dozens of states. The UK has flexibility and adaptation to circumstance as part of its maneuverability, this snap election is within due process.
To call an election is a gamble all the same with regards to Brexit. The campaign will likely be dominated by the opposition fielding it as a new and last opportunity at remaining in EU, so we are likely to see the previous tensions revived.
Globalist set-up? Hard put not to find globalist influence in the politics of any country, but personally I hope the main aim is to secure national integrity and strengthen the concensus needed to deal with the rest of the world – we won’t know how that will be applied, hopefully with a certain reserve and reason, but since when did anyone think those in power did not need watching?
For a critical perspective try :
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/04/19/snap-election-new-shocker-as-england-scotland-on-verge-of-becoming-one-party-states/
Everything is politics and May is making a political move when the time is best. I believe she is planning on making the EU dance to her music instead of the other way around. If she gets her majority expect few compromises from Britain during Brexit negotiations.
Wrong. The bitch has been bought, Bye Bye Brexit.
Politics. Meet the new boss…..Same as the old boss.
Bold move, Normally a politician having 3 years to go will try to manage to hold on to power. That she was ready to take the risk for a better hand in dealing with the job at hand (brexit) shows the stuff she is made of. I hope she wins and wins BIG. Who knows she may end up as a great PM of the UK. I hope she does. At least she seems to be cut from a different cloth. Till now despite all the opposition she has been true to the referendum.
Very true. Let’s hope she’s as authentic as appears.
Spoke to a few local British folk yesterday about this development. Everyone expressed exhaustion over the continual state national elections/referendums here. It simply does not stop.
But I think this is about Scotland. No doubt May’s party has been assessing the strength of feeling for Nicola Sturgeon and believe that this election will diminish her status. I’ve been contending for some time that history will not treat Sturgeon well. The SNP has complete dominance of Scotland yet Sturgeon has done nothing with it.
Nonetheless I believe that this is a very dangerous gamble. Sure, as things appear Mish you will no doubt be correct in your expectations. But if something in Korea goes awry, say a fishing vessel with a nuclear device etc then nothing is predictable – and May will regret the day she made this announcement. May is also again giving Europe a position of primacy in the national British political debate – just when it should be quietly allowed to wither. I am worried about it.
What we could be witnessing is Maggie MkII.
The United Kingdom is crying out for root and branch reforms. I hope this term does not get totally dominated by BREXIT. One of her first moves could be to sell off the BBC to private enterprise, Rioting in France for the past week in Paris and not one video shot from the BBC because the EU is awesome.
Absolutely. God only knows who is really pulling the strings with information release. I could point to a few “coincidences” between MSM, George Osbourne and – not wishing to be thought of as a complete loon – the European discussion in the Bilderberg meetings.
Who should be at meetings with Europe as an agenda point in the past – Osbourne, BBC and some US MSM outlets.
There are those saying United States of Europe is inevitable and the UK will be crushed by that momentum.
Yes, the info agenda is hard to figure. Hard to discern what is meant to focus attention, what is used to displace other stories, what is trivial choice, what is concerted campaign, and add to that that the various opposing offerings often have their own filtered agendas or provide news by reaction and not authenticity. Maybe they are all so disconected they have run out of ideas, but more likely it is figured that the loudest megaphone will be the winner… and all we want to do is have a quiet sensible discussion amongst ourselves using some trusted facts.
Very simple text message goes into moderatiom???
you are a known troublemaker.
http://www.whome.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/bird-560×330.jpg
point proven!
Just talked to a friend in Edinburgh, who is a big Labour supporter and has no love for the SNP./the Wee Fish Sturgeon and her minions. She was out yesterday campaigning for Labour but tells me they are finished in Scotland, it was really not worth the effort. Crysangle I always love your posts, especially the photo you just posted — that’s a keeper! We need more troublemakers in the world, mavericks, et al…in politics, art, social issues, taxes, political (mis)management, state run media (BBC propaganda) and the MSM, both in the UK and the USA. I’m sick and tired of having my family’s lives, safety and financial assets undermined by the PTB, without any politicians or the social do-gooders, etc., taking responsibility for their actions.
Appreciated Eileen… there is limited, or no, consultation going on with individuals on many topics in the world today. People notice when they get decided over without consideration – whether to ‘help them’ or otherwise. I don’t fuss about other people’s choices as long as I don’t feel they are being imposed on me, but I think ‘social management ‘ is being taken to a new level nowadays. New forces in politics and government used to be grassroot, or reactionary, and generally had to pass something of a litmus test at ground level. What we seem to have today is highly engineered and pre-decided, working via the force of existing accepted establishment, be it media finance, education, government. It isn’t that it (still fortunately) remains a battle ground , it is the sheer unaccountable deceptions that are tried that is disconcerting. For me it only takes someone in authority to be careless or inconsiderate towards me to spin my opinion 180 °, as to me that is what counts first – people’s sincerity and manner… if it is acceptable then discussion, instead of argument, is possible. Most times argument is a waste of energy, so I tend to limit myself to just stating my point of view and leave it at that…hopefully we all have something or people more deserving of our good attention around us, but it is always good to converse a little and know that we are not alone in our perceptions.
No-one with an ounce of sense reads or pays any attention to what is written in the Guardian…..
Th Guardian has many good articles
That was not one of them
Recall that Glen Greenwald was once with the Guardian
Sorry Phil, but compared to most of the other UK rags (Daily Mail, Sun, even The Times), the Guardian is the only serious newspaper – and it’s read predominantly by ABC1 consumers.
You must be from the US – I suggest you stick with USA Today, a colourful comic.
Sorry germ: I think you should say the Guardian is the only left-wing, communist mentality newspaper. Serious newspaper,? I think not. Who exactly are ABC1 consumers? Would that be the London/Labour /Corbyn/cognoscenti crowd? The Guardian by its own admission is losing readers, are those the ABC1 consumers you refer to? Currently the Guardian has moved to an online website subscription basis, (ditto the Independent)’ apparently these ABC1 consumers are not buying their paper at the check-out counters….currently the Guardian is pleading for ‘eyeballs on the page’ on their website. I subscribe to the WSJ online, but hardly read it anymore. I take it you don’t consider the Telegraph a UK rag, the Scotsman, the Glasgow Herald? There are way too many newspapers in the UK, some very trashy in their content. The latter seem to be selling very well compared to the Guardian, Independent, Times, Telegraph, Financial Times, etc. I’ve deduced your acronym…ABC1 means; ALREADY BEEN CHOSEN and we’re #1. Very elitist I think. And yes, I am from the USA, Scottish born. Bottom line the newspaper/magazine industry is dead in the water. Sic transit gloria mundi!!!
It is an astute move on Ms May’s part. If the Parliament votes against her proposal then there is the risk of a vote of no confidence which essentially does the same thing. The worst that could happen is a continuation of the status quo. On the other hand, I have heard talk that her party might lose a couple of seats while destroying Labor. It would also give the Scots enough political change to finally vote independence, another can of worms. The world is awash in change and we shall see what those changes bring.
It may be a very good move for Ms May, considering that it would give “her” a mandate as prime minister, which she lacks right now — a mandate of the people. However, its not so clear cut what mandate she wants, and what the electors will give.
Since John Major the polls in the UK have been poor indicators of success, with wide variances in actual voting day results.
Still a 20 point margin will be hard to obliterate, especially since Labor is still in-fighting and that the Liberals are still fitting windmills.
Considering that Ms May was dead against an election just a month ago!
Wow! I can’t believe the odds makers are giving the Green party generous odds of 500 to 1 for winning the election. That’s better than Leicester was given when they won the Premiership (5000 to 1).
Do odds makers really think the Greens have a better chance of winning the election than Leicester did in winning the football title?
The bitch has been bought.