French voters go to the voting booths tomorrow. No campaigning can take place today, nor can any election polling.
The final polls show a small bounce for Marine Le Pen. One of the polls has Le Pen back into a tie with Macron.
In the wake of the terrorist gun ambush on April 20 that killed one policeman and injured two others, one has to wonder if and how the attack might impact the elections.
From Eurointelligence, by email:
Will project fear work, and if so for whom?
The gunman on the Champs-Elysées, killing one policeman and wounding two others, forced the presidential candidates last night to change their discourse on live television. Will it be a defining moment for the elections? The underlying question is whether project fear works under these circumstances. And, if so, which of the candidates will benefit?
The shooting had all the signs of a terrorist attack. It happened one hour into a live TV emission where each of the candidates had 15 minutes to explain their presidential bid. Emmanuel Macron was the first one to comment as the news came in, declaring in a solemn voice his solidarity with the victims. But he was also quick to argue against fear-mongering, saying that this is a trap by the attackers.
François Fillon, by contrast, went full-on, calling off his campaign meetings for today. Later he even suggested for the whole election campaign to be suspended on this last day of campaigning. Le Pen canceled her meetings too, Macron followed their move later in the night.
Fillon’s speech followed the one of Marine Le Pen, focusing on terrorism, security, French identity, and education. By calling for campaign suspension, Fillon bet on the emotional aspect of the attack. With this move he made it to the most cited on social media, followed by Marine Le Pen. Will this be enough to propel him into the second round?
Before the attack, however, there was clear momentum for Emmanuel Macron. The polls show him leading, ahead of Marine Le Pen. Dominique de Villepin backed Macron officially, and Nicolas Sarkozy will instruct his people to vote for him if he reaches the second round. In the news kiosks, pictures of Macron were on many magazine front pages. The media talked about his telephone conversation with Barack Obama. Many commentators see in him the only one who can muster a majority to prevent Marine Le Pen from winning. After all, who can guarantee that the left would come to vote for the much-hated Fillon, or the right for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, if they end up facing Le Pen in the second round?
The campaign officially ends at midnight tonight. No more polls or declarations until 20h on Sunday.
Final Polls
Assuming one believes the polls, there was a small but noticeable shift towards Le Pen and away from Fillon in the two most recent polls compared to two polls taken April 18-20. This could be noise or it could be real.
Media Backs Macron
The French media is clearly behind Macron. Does that help?
Project fear did not help in Brexit nor did a pro-Hillary media deliver the blue ribbon to her.
The four polls are all within the margin of error. It should not be a shock to see any individual candidate bumped out.
We find out on Sunday, perhaps Monday if the results are extremely close.
Prediction Poll
Related Article
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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LePen, Macron in that order. Polling proves skewed.
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LePen is mightier than “the Sword!”
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Witty and I do hope is true for France.
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False flag ops often prove successful. The Reichstag fire of 1930s Germany and Erdogan’s recent “coup” are just two examples. The key is to figure out who is behind the manipulation and what they want and then do the opposite. Unfortunately, that is almost always easier said than done. There may be subtle clues, often times little things that “just don’t make sense” and would give the game away to the observant. But such events are usually followed by huge discharges of emotion which generate more heat than light, which was likely the planner’s point. But I have to wonder who has the most to gain here? Would ISIS wish to provoke a reaction that would likely lead to a more hard-line politician taking over in France than one who is less so? That would depend on what they are really trying to accomplish, continued immigration or a violent reaction that would create more divisions they could exploit. It is not easy to figure out, but it is certainly worth attempting.
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Not every event represents a false flag. Some terrorists are not deep thinkers and just want to annihilate happiness in others because they don’t have it. Look at where they attack-beautiful cities, museums, nightclubs, shopping venues, restaurants, , ,-almost anyplace where people are gathered to have a good time.
I think you might be giving some terrorists more credit for rational behavior than they deserve
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Per their own stated ideology (at least early on when they were “wining”) ISIS specifically wanted to provoke an epochal confrontation with the West. As this was how they envisioned the Caliphate would come to reign supreme.
Many/most of their adherents most likely commit the same error most ideological firebrands do: Historical Time Compression. When we read of the fall of the Roman Empire, it almost seems like a distinct event. Something a band of warriors managed to pull off, by bravery and dedication alone. While in reality, it was a multi century rot. With no distinct “fall.”
The rise of the Caliphate, should it come to bear, will in hindsight look to have occurred the same way. A slow shift in power from the once Christian, now secular, West, towards nominal adherents of Islam.
And then, just like Rome, and now the West, chances are the power concentration required for an Empire, will lead first the rulers, then more and more of society, to attempt tossing off the shackles of moral strictures and limits imposed by their chosen scripture. So by the time the Caliphate reaches it’s Zenith, it will be secularized and ran largely by a bunch of money lenders and asset pump racketeers. Just like Empires before them. So, even though currently ascendant, the Muzzies should be careful what they wish for…
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If the French don’t vote for LePen now, there is no hope for them…
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I didn’t know where that video was going at first, but the same thing happened here in the US. Benefits went to foreigners over native born and people hot fed up. As an example they installed water lines and the area residents had to pay between 1500 and 2500 (lot size dependent) and immigrants in a majority town nearby had to pay 75 dollars, subsidized by the government did to their “poverty”. That angers citizens when they find out.
Enough to vote for a non -politician in the hope that things will change- and I believe they will. There are more help wanted signs in our are for what it is worth here in central Florida
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This attack may help LePen perhaps a little since for the most part it seems like at least to me right wing conservatives are usually always less intimidated and ready to take a strong stand against terrorists more than their opponents on the left who favor a process of appeasement who even sometimes seem to defend the terrorists due to their hopeless environment or lack of love or understanding.
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A Rothschild banker has a chance in France!? Sacre bleu!
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Le Pen is a crazy nut-job, but she has already “won”. There is decent chance she gets the majority, and a 100% chance the other three are forced to address her criticisms even if they were to win. The crazy lady went from lunatic fringe to top 2 (assuming the polls are somewhat accurate) — anything above 10% for Le Pen is a victory.
If Macaroni or noodles or whichever media approved liar somehow wins, they won’t be able to govern without addressing Le Pen’s talking points. Winning the election is the easy part, governing is a lot more difficult.
The French government has made “promises” it cannot keep, plus it hitched itself to the unelected fools in Brussels –the status quo cannot stand and therefor won’t, no matter who supposedly wins tomorrow’s election.
That means countries like UK and Switzerland will be the true winners, as they offer relative stability and certainty.
My forecast: Le Pen wins the election, UK wins the economy.
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a duplicate… or maybe it got stuck in “awaiting moderation” queue
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1) Winning the election is the easy part, governing is a lot more difficult. Le Pen, if she doesn’t win the election outright, will clearly influence whomever does
2) The difficulty governing a country that has over-promised and under-delivered already means continued chaos in France… both from rebel groups (terrorism is a tool used by…) and from economic uncertainty
My forecast: Le Pen wins the election, UK wins the economy.
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Heh. As someone said in a back thread England doesn’t need to outrun the angry bear of terrorism. It only needs to outrun the slow, wobbly EU bureaucracy.
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30% of French voters had not decided until Friday. LePen could win it all in the first round.
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The last country exiting the European Union will likely get stuck with the rest of the refugees. possibly Germany since they don’t even really have a choice in their next election at this time.
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