The markets appear giddy today over the election prospects of Emanuel Macron in France.
Equities are up along with bond yields. Gold is down. The day is still young though.
Macron won round one of the French election yesterday and will square off against Marine Le Pen in round two on May 7. He is widely expected to win round two, becoming the next president of France.
Policy Advancement
Can Macron Save the World? Save France?
Let’s phrase this a different way. Can Macron advance his policies?
I would ask the same question if Marine Le Pen were expected to win. Macron will not have a mandate. Neither would Le Pen if she were to win.
Certainly, the EU would prefer working with Macron. With Le Pen at the helm, France could throw Brexit negotiations for a loop.
internally, Macron has his work cut out for him. Here are their policies as described by the Guardian.
Macron Policies
Remake the “failed” and “vacuous” French political system; relax labor laws; cut business taxes; reform unemployment system; encourage social mobility; cut public spending (but boost investment); shrink public sector; reduce the number of MPs; establish eurozone government; hire 10,000 more police and gendarmes.
He says: “I will work over the coming fortnight so that together we can gather as many people as possible around my candidacy. The strength of this coming together will be decisive for the government. The challenge this evening is not to vote against a person, but to decide to break completely with a system that has been incapable of responding to our country’s problems for 30 years.
Le Pen Policies
Policies: Priority for French nationals in jobs, housing, welfare; extra tax on foreign workers and imports; proportional representation in parliament; negotiate with EU for return of “full sovereignty” including the franc; in-out referendum on EU membership; cut immigration to 10,000 a year; restrict nationality rights; hire 15,000 police; create 40,000 more prison places.
She says: “The French people now have a very simple choice: either we continue on the path to complete deregulation, or you choose France.
Questions
- Would the French parliament go along with relaxing labor laws? Cut business taxes?
- Would the parliament allow a referendum on the Euro?
If the answers are no and no, then what’s changed?
The real battle over the survival of the eurozone will take place in Italy, not France.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Couldn’t agree more – Italy’s banking system is a disaster!
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Another tiny kick of the can …
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Yes, what Europe really needs is another Bankster/Politician! As Martin Armstrong points out, only Le Pen can force reform in the EU and save France. The slimy Macron will usher in the catastrophe, while pocketing a fortune.
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What we may be looking at is a smooth talking pretty face who will get kicked about by the entrenched bureaucracies. Very little will change and the place continues a death spiral in the EU.
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Funny how the elites run the markets on a primary. Any reason they can to juice their assets. I bet that the EU central bank is the biggest buyer today to support their criminal organization.
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“Funny how the elites”
I hate that term. “Elites” is too flattering. I wish everyone would call it what it is is – an oligarchy.
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I wish everyone would call it …
—————-
Remember, it’s not only the cream that rises to the top! Scum does too!
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Thank god for the elites. Someone has to make up for all the dead-weight out there.
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Even more accurately, a plutocracy.
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A pop in US equities was expected after a triangle formed over the last 5-6 weeks in the S&P futures market. Markets are so close to a major top as if to say traders are “afraid” of a LePen win.
My spectral analysis tool indicates the larger/slower of two dominant cycles is past top and entering the hard down phase. The smaller/faster cycle is losing momentum quickly approaching its top. When they both align to the hard downside next year, it will be obvious the market is in a major crash.
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Outside of policies, Macron needs a bogey man. He will find that in the UK and it will be used to pronote his policies and deflect attention anytime there is a hiccup.
Can he change France – yes. They have no choice as they otherwise become ever more irrelevant. My quesiton is – wIll Macron be bad for the UK? I suspect yes, he will, unless he fails.
At 39, faced with the French status quo, does he have the experience needed and the stamina?
He wants to attract the brightest and the best to France. He might succeed. Taxes will have to fall and hiring/firing become more acceptable – an Anglo-Saxon model.
Nothing changed yet.
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Won’t work.
Nobody is afraid of the UK.
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Won’t work.
Nobody is afraid of the UK.
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Never said anythig about being afraid of the UK.
Where did you get that from?
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The bogeyman UK Fish refers too is by describing UK as xenophobic, non solidarity, non paying or exploitative etc.
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“establish eurozone government; hire 10,000 more police and gendarmes”
Naturally one needs more officers of law to keep the peasants in order…
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Macron is a fraud. He is the continuation of the Hollande government. It was a brilliant maneuver- run him as an outsider, take down Fillon with a scandal investigation, and then sit back as all the other parties unite against Le Pen in the 2nd round.
It will be a pyrrhic victory- Macron will end with the same approval rating that Hollande enjoys today because he will have the exact same policies, and Le Pen’s will be the only opposition party going into future elections.
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In other words, Macron is the French Hillary Clinton…….
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“It was a brilliant maneuver- run him as an outsider”
“In other words, Macron is the French Hillary Clinton…….”
No, more like the post election “reality version” of Donald Trump.
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Hmm! I see that funny little cross-eyed French President feller is starting to spread scare stories about MLP already. Surely anything HE says carries about as much gravitas as Mickey Mouse, and is likely to backfire. I suspect Macron (actually his wife in all but name) will sneak home as President, but I think it will be a much closer race than the MSM is willing to acknowledge. Would love to see the EUrocrats get a good for once and for all kicking this time around.
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“I will work over the coming fortnight so that together we can gather as many people as possible around my candidacy. ”
http://www.fdesouche.com/845649-des-journalistes-temoignent-des-pressions-quils-recoivent-de-lequipe-macron
http://galliawatch.blogspot.in/2017/04/with-macron-unlimited-migrations.html
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/frances-muslim-demographic-future
http://www.youscribe.com/BookReader/Index/2827798?documentId=3060784
The French carry out a lot of politics at street level.
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Seems most all EU parties are banded around Macron, from Brussels to Madrid
http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/24/inenglish/1493030857_442149.html
is an example… and the two photos aren’t same person, one is the French upstart, the other Spain’s centrist liberal upstart… should make you wonder as Spain’s traditional parties are endorsing the French version of their own new competition…
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How much more road is there left to kick the can? Surely it can’t be much?
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Can Trump save America or the World? heh.
After what we’ve seen in the last 100 days the answer to that question should be as obvious as the nose on your face.
France is no different. Macron will turn into a puppet. They all do eventually.
I’d like Macron to turn France into a guinea pig with a massive roll out of self-driving cars so we could learn from their mistakes.
But the USA will take the lead and fall flat on our faces.
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“Can Trump save America or the World? heh.”
Why, of course, now that the neoCONs who hated him when the Hildabeast was their favorite now love him.
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if he does succeed it could save the EU, not necessarily the Euro. Expect and acceleration of integration of the Franco-German axis irrespective of other members of the EU.
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“Whatever it Takes.” Don’t forget that.
Fighting CB’s can be expensive. Especially considering the World’s GDP is entirely denominated in their currencies.
Meanwhile, the band plays on. Housing has “Recovered,” the Dow is at records, gold has gone from 1900 back to the mid 1200’s, interest rates are at record lows, got some nice expensive wars brewing to get the money flowing.
Next up, a raising of the Debt Ceiling, big Infrastructure Boondoggles, a showering of “Money” upon Main Street and voila,,,, Reset!
Got cash? Waiting for Armageddon to present you with “Deals of a Lifetime?” Any Central Banker worthy of his/her/it’s salt might tell you, that’s like waiting for Godot.
Aside, by the time the inevitable finally arrives, cash will be worthless. Unless one figures Bolivars are on sale.
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“Next up, a raising of the Debt Ceiling, big Infrastructure Boondoggles, a showering of “Money” upon Main Street and voila,,,, Reset!”
…
The business cycle has not been repealed.
“Expansion” in its 94th month … long by historical standards.
When the debt ceiling raised (last go round debt level held steady for 4 months … then exploded higher by $500 billion within a few months) … now just under $19.850 trillion … it will QUICKLY shoot over $20 trillion as backfilling gets done. Just don’t see much stomach for a Republican controlled Congress for large spending measures (outside of War) as the Twenty Trillion gets bandied about by the MSM.
Now when the recession hits I fully expect ARRA.2 … along with NIRP and QE.4(?) … as a recession will provide political cover for Rs to spend … and cut taxes.
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Wow Mish
First things first — the strength of the far right is far less than any serious commentator would suggest just a week ago; le Pen is done at 25/35 for the second round. Already that France walked back from the precipice that was Le Pen is a huge achievement.
Like you have serious reservation about the Euro (not Europe) the drama is that Europe’s politicians have expanded the Union with new (even less qualified members) without attacking the fundamental requirement for a “closer union” via a true Federation.
European politicians did the second best — they grew the European union without strengthening its institutions . As for Marco’s policy platform you are absolutely right, pie in the sky stuff that will never be approved by the Chamber of Deputy or even the Senate; France has made a pact with the devil, and now its up to Italy to take it apart!
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One way or another the EU will muddle through but the price paid will be the total commoditisation of their peoples. By the time the sheep wake up to the threat it will be too late.
Marcron is the new Blair, perhaps without the wars. If he doesn’t deliver then LePen gets another bite of the cherry in a few years or her party has a new leader able to sell the message vs Macron types.
A battle won but not necessarily the war.
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“Macron supports the open-door policy toward immigrants and refugees pursued by Angela Merkel in Germany.” Good for the economy, says Macron. But what about French culture?
He is a staunch supporter of the European Union, supports Israel and doesn’t agree with the BDS movement against Israel.
He graduates with a philosophy/civil service degree, works for government for four years, then abruptly pays $50,000 Euros to get released from his contract with the government so that he can work for the ROTHSCHILD bank (with no finance experience at all), makes millions of dollars after working four years at the bank, and then decides to go back to his $70,000.00/year job with the government, advising Hollande.
So eight years in the government; four years at the bank. Then he quickly decides he’s an independent, announces his candidacy just a few months ago (August, 2016), writes a book in November of 2016 (sound familiar?), amasses a huge volunteer organization (someone big has to be helping him with that!), and voila – here he is!
Don’t get fooled again, people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron
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Wouldn’t a monetary union of ‘just’ Germany, France, Benelux + Austria still be quite viable? Let Greece, Italy and Spain do whatever they want. IMO they are not vital to the core of the project, so no need to baby them if they don’t want to conform to the rules. Doesn’t mean the Euro would need to disappear completely.
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Wouldn’t a monetary union of ‘just’ Germany, France, Benelux + Austria still be quite viable?
What happens to German banks and the creditors if Italy, Greece, and Spain pay back in local currencies or default outright.
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I believe already the central bank, contrary to the articles governing it, is already considering a Trillion euro buy out of all the debts, so no one will be left with the debts. The money just appears from nowhere [like bank money today] but not as a liability [unlike bank money]. No one has to default. As siad . here elsewhere “whatever it takes” and bugger the rule book!
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The french will make their own beds on May 7.
Macron will absolutely destroy whatever culture the french have left. He’s walking to the marching tunes of the globalists.
This is your final chance, France.
Screw this one up and your semi-sovereign country is toast.
Collectively, you were never that bright anyway.
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Sgt Bilko, uncanny resemblance to Hollande.
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I kept thinking Hamon was Matthew Rhys
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Off to the Haute Marne tomorrow, a land heavily for Le Pen. What to make of the possible outcomes? If you thought government under Hollande was bad, just wait for Macron to make it worse. If the French actually wanted change they would vote Le Pen in office. In two weeks we shall see.
Unfortunately the French like their socialism, the free shit. Out in the villages the farmers and a few other “Handy Man” type cut wood in the communal forest and sell it for case. Not one will take a credit card or a check. A lot of business gets done on the black market. funny thing is that the French will accept the higher prices, they will accept the government handouts, even demand an increase to them, and talk about to glory of france. Diogenes would burn his allotment of oil in a day searching for an honest man in France. May promises to be a fun month.
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Wait until they go cashless. Fun and games.
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They can’t, the “little” people would rise up in a minute. the black market is alive and well. When over half your country homes are still heated with firewood it is unlikely that you will want to pay higher prices for “officially” processed wood. Most villages and even some of the smaller towns have their own forests where each inhabitant is allowed an allotment of wood. They either cut the wood themselves or pay to have it cut and split for them. Well, so much for carbon trading schemes.
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Macron is the jeb bush of our last election. Unfortunately the French are evidently quite content with the status quo if they elect The shadow candidate Macron. No one comes out of nowhere with tons of money like he did unless he is the establishments alternative when their main guy crashed and burned before the election.
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Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage
The entire global establishment are backing Macron in France. That should tell you everything you need to know.
9:06 AM – 24 Apr 2017
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Macron allows the establishment to ignore reality / reform a while longer, setting up a much harder landing. La Pen, like Trump, should cushion the blow caused by govt corruption. As Winston and Farage correctly point out, when the establishment throws their support behind anyone, run as fast as possible in the opposite direction. Either way, or if Italy beats Germany as the last straw, the euro and EU are history, which means dollar-based assets continue to rise, regardless of fundamentals.
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Today’s stock market rally was just absurd. Macron (if he wins, which is hardly a certainty) cannot govern. He cannot implement at least half the ideas he is proposing within France, and equally important he cannot save the EU and cannot impact Brexit negotiations (unless he is trying to make the terms even better for England).
If Le Pen wins, she won’t be able to govern either.
Macron wants to continue the same policies that didn’t work under Hollande. Le Pen wants to go back to the policies that didn’t work in the 1960s and 1970s.
Neither has a credible way to address the growing groups of domestic / Algerian / Syrian terror groups. Neither can maintain basic law and order within Paris ( Macron’s policies are exactly what Hollande has been doing and is currently doing).
All I could think of is that a LOT of people had bought puts in case the sky started falling, and the sell side hedges for those puts got taken off in a panic. Not sure that is what happened — but any other scenario is just herd mentality buying.
I am sticking with my prediction that Le Pen wins (she wasn’t that far behind Macron, even in establishment polls). Le Pen won’t be able to govern (and neither will Macron if he wins). The British economy is going to be the real victor
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Patrick Buchanan, interesting conclusion to superb article.
http://buchanan.org/blog/macron-eus-last-best-hope-126852
Second-generation Muslims who have lived all their lives in Europe are turning up among the suicide bombers and terrorists. Fifteen years ago, al-Qaida seemed confined to Afghanistan. Now it is all over the Middle East, as is ISIS, and calls for Islamists in Europe to murder Europeans inundate social media. As the numbers of native-born Europeans begin to fall, with their anemic fertility rates, will the aging Europeans become more magnanimous toward destitute newcomers who do not speak the national language or assimilate into the national culture, but consume its benefits? If a referendum were held across Europe today, asking whether the mass migrations from the former colonies of Africa and the Middle East have on balance made Europe a happier and better place to live in recent decades, what would that secret ballot reveal? Does Macron really represent the future of France, or is he perhaps one of the last men of yesterday?
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Russian hackers target French presidential candidate
Emmanuel Macron’s campaign said its staff received phishing emails meant to steal their passwords.
https://www.cnet.com/news/french-presidential-election-targeted-by-russian-hackers-emmanuel-macron/
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At least 70% of the French are against Macron: Melanchon 20%, Fillon 21%, Le Pen 21% and Hamon 7%. Macron is Hollande’s baby. He will plug the same economic and geo-politic policies that up tp 92% of the French hate. A total disaster and an impossibility to get a parliamentary consensus. Another 5 years wasted. Funny that nobody has suggested that the Fench voting system needs reform. Or put another way: why are the French so dumm?
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