I keep asking the same question on Brexit and keep coming up with the same answer: Why bother?
There is absolutely no reason the UK should start a negotiation given the repeated EU demands. Once again, on Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated the EU’s “not reversible” position.
Please consider German Chancellor Rules Out Talk of Future EU-UK Relationship Before Clarified Brexit Conditions.
In a statement to German federal parliament on Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she supported the EU’s proposed line of negotiations to not address future relations between the EU and Britain before the Brexit conditions are clarified.
Ahead of the first European Union (EU) Brexit summit on April 29, Merkel outlined the conditions for Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. One such condition is the issue of pending financial obligations by Britain towards the EU which has to be resolved before any other framework for future relations can be discussed. The order in which these important issues need to be settled is “not reversible,” Merkel said.
Merkel also stated that she feels many people in Britain are “under the illusion” that Britain, as third party, would retain the rights of a member state. British Brexit supporters have advertised the withdrawal from the EU, suggesting it would be possible to remove obligations while still profiting from the union.
The 27 heads of state and government of the remaining EU member states will decide on a regulatory guideline concerning the Brexit negotiations this Saturday. This will be used as a basis for the negotiating mandate that the 27 states will give the European Commission, according to Merkel.
Britons Expect Too Much From Brexit Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Merkel Says Some Britons Expect Too Much From Brexit Talks.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the U.K. risked “wasted time” because some people in the country suffered illusions over how well Britain could fare in talks about the country’s exit from the European Union.
“A third country—and that is what Great Britain will be—cannot and will not have the same rights, or perhaps even be better off, than a member of the European Union,” Ms. Merkel said in a speech Thursday to Germany’s lower house of parliament outlining her position on Brexit. “I must unfortunately say this so clearly here because I have the feeling that some in Great Britain still have illusions about this. But this would be wasted time.”
She also echoed the stance of EU officials and capitals that there would need to be an agreement in principle on the U.K. accepting its financial obligations to the bloc—the so-called divorce bill—before the EU could start discussing a future trade agreement with the U.K.
Optimism? Why?
I have read many articles in the Financial Times and on Eurointelligence expressing optimism on these talks. I fail to see why.
Sure, we have been through countless 11th-hour deals with Greece. But the UK is not Greece.
In regards to NAFTA, a reader on my blog commented the other day “You would be surprised at how often parties could have reached a win-win agreement only to part ways fighting instead.”
I responded “I agree with you fully. A critical Brexit opportunity is coming up and I expect it to fail. There is an easy win-win compromise but the desire to punish the UK and set rules in the name of solidarity is too great.”
The EU’s first position is the UK has more to lose. The EU’s second position is that the time factor is on the EU’s side. Both are Fantasyland positions.
This is not a divorce where a one-sided judge sets alimony. This is a treaty that can be canceled at any time by walking away. Unless and until Theresa May lets it be known she will walk away, the EU has the upper hand.
The proper response from UK prime minister Theresa May is to inform the EU there will be no discussion as long as the EU insists on a divorce bill negotiated first.
Related Posts
- March 5: Brexit Reality: “Paying Any Exit Fee is absurd”
- February 19: Brexit Fast-Track Dead: EU Insists Upon Divorce Settlement Before Trade Talks
- December 2: Brexit is a Religious Battle (And You Can’t Negotiate Religion)
- November 29: Brexit Stacked Deck? Which Way? Don’t Negotiate, Just Leave!
- October 17: EU Doesn’t Want Brexit “Negotiations”, the EU Wants “Blood Revenge”
Only by walking away – showing a willingness to let time expire – does the UK have a chance at reasonable negotiations. Even then, I am not sure what the chance is because the “EU’s desire to punish the UK and set rules in the name of solidarity” likely exceeds the desire to walk away with a win-win situation.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The problem is simply that EU cannot allow UK to look like a winner. It has too many horses waiting to bolt. The only reason why people still want the Euro is because the politicians in EU had made the currency worthless in the past and thus still prefer the Euro. The day this mindset changes is likely to be the beginning of the end of euro. This should happen when the cross of euro is more to bear than the pain of having their own currency.
Too Late!
Britian to EU.
We are leaving.
We are also initiating a free trade agreement with Russia and America.
We are not taking one more migrant.
We are cutting corporate taxes to zero.
Your move….
Just so!
EU to Scotland & Wales – welcome
England to Scotland
All dole payments are cut off.
They were pretty generous, you are maasive net “taker” of government largess and the EU will not make it up.
Your move.
PS. The hardy and independent Scots peasants you see in the movie “Braveheart” don’t exist anymore.
Scotland to England – Brussels over Whitehall any day thank you very much
Wales – ditto
said as Scotland breaths out its death rattle……..
Vooch, you don’t have a clue. Wales voted to LEAVE !
Scotland would suffer as no transfers from England would occur, it has no reliable revenue base and it is known – they won’t be able to use GBP as a currency.
It would be very stressful indeed to Scotland, very!
Good luck to the Scots if they want to go that way.
but..but..but.. If Scotland leaves. The GB Davis Cup team loses the Murray Brothers.
And EU answers, who gives a ****, goodbye and good luck.
Yeah the US-GB free trade zone would be great! Why isn’t that done already?
Right. It should get on with becoming Airstrip One.
Maybe England can apply for statehood? Still space on our flag for a 51st star. 🙂
You’re asking for a good spangling again there Sal’ .
…which just happened to be the iconic 51st comment.
@2Banana. It’s my understanding that no member of the EU is at liberty to negotiate bi-lateral trade deals. Any such deals have to negotiated by the EU as a block on behalf of the member countries. It’s perhaps just another reason why exiting the EU is so challenging; and is certainly designed thus intentionally. So while the UK can meet foreign governments and seek ‘Expressions of interest’, no deals can be entered into.
Edit/clarification: Apologies, my comment was intended as @ stevetravel04, rather than @2Banana.
What does ‘have to’ mean? What is the penalty, and how would eu collect it?
Say Britain negotiates with Japan, agreeing to import Japan cars to replace German ones that now are a major part of britains trade deficit with eu. Would eu punish Japan in retaliation? Or china, or the us?
No more French wine? No more brits vacationing in Spain? Pity, have to go to Carib, or morocco, instead?
Maybe trade with Russia looks more attractive now…
@JohnK – re: restriction on negotiating trade deals pre-BREXIT. See for example:
—–
‘EU states cede their right to sign trade deals to the European commission in Brussels and are formally prohibited from pursuing their own agreements.
Citigroup plans new operations away from London after Brexit
Read more
“Under EU law, no member state discussions on trade agreements – as opposed to commercial deals, like selling planes – with non-EU countries are possible at all,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at the University of Essex.
However, Peers said it could be argued that “since it is leaving the EU, the UK is not fully bound by that rule at long as it does not actually conclude any treaties before Brexit day. The legal position is not certain.”
It is understood that the government’s private legal advice is that no agreements may be signed while the UK remains an EU member, but it is free to start talks as soon as Britain begins the legal process of leaving the union, which May has said it will do by triggering article 50 by the end of March.
That appears to be at odds with the EU position. “There is nothing in the treaties that prohibits you from discussing trade,” commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas stressed this week, “but you can only negotiate a trade agreement after you leave the European Union.”
Joseph Muscat, the prime minister of Malta, which holds the rotating EU presidency, said it was “very clear that in order to sign and have a bilateral agreement with third countries, the UK first needs to reach a settlement with the EU”.
The commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has said that for EU members trade talks are “exclusively a matter of the EU”, and trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström reiterated in Davos last week that trade negotiations before Britain leaves the bloc – expected to be by March 2019 – were not permitted.’ [continues]
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/brexit-deal-uk-eu-trade-pacts
and
‘Under current EU treaties, Britain can neither strike nor even begin to negotiate any trade agreement with countries outside of the Union until it has formally terminated its membership, which is expected to occur in March 2019.
This was made clear by the EU’s foreign affairs commissioner Federica Mogherini, who used a meeting with UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and his European counterparts to issue a stern reminder to Britain.
“It’s absolutely clear on the EU side that as long as a country is a member state of the EU, which is something the UK is at the moment, there are no negotiations bilaterally on any trade agreement with third parties. This is in the treaties and this is valid for all member states as long as they remain member states, until the very last day.’ [continues]
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-warns-theresa-may-about-post-brexit-trade-deal-with-trump-usa-2017-1
I haven’t read the two articles in full again, those are just excerpts, so can’t tell you precisely what the EU would do. That’s typical of the EU though, make a lot of loud threats but provide little legal basis for their validity. As the issue has not been tested before perhaps it would have to be decided by the European Court of Justice… where naturally it would get bogged down for years…
Not just US/UK trade agreement but the whole ‘Anglo-world’, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc.
Strictly speaking Canada is not an Anglo country. It has a large French speaking minority along with a substantial Irish presence who were absorbed into the French culture. Together they account for over 30% of the population. Now that Canada has locked into the EU and is conducting negotiations with China, GB ranks behind Canada’s relationship with Mexico (NAFTA) where there are now major concerns about disruption to Canadian manufacturing due to Trump’s grandstanding on NAFTA. It remains to be seen whether whether trade agreements with the US become political footballs subject to the whims of Washington.
With Trumps proposed 15% corporate tax rate that aligns with Ireland’s, there seams to be an unwritten agreement to stage economic war against Germany.
Ireland’s corporate tax rate is 12.5% except for transfers of profit of MNC subsidaries into Ireland which can be as low as 1%.
Pity you can’t get through to those responsible!!!
Just another example of why governments are a huge waste of time.
Better to let corporations rule,eh?
Theresa May called snap elections, which will give her a much stronger hand in Parliament (and the snowflakes a much weaker hand).
Brussels will be ignored after those elections happen / EU supporters are removed from office.
Le Pen will ensure that Brussels gets ignored in France too. She stands a good chance of winning (despite media propaganda), and Macron will be forced into early elections if he tries to implement more EU rubbish.
Italy is leaning toward an anti-EU government as well.
I don’t know if voters will dump the EU in France and Italy this election or next … but the ridiculous fatwahs from Brussels are over
I am not that easy about the UK elections Medex. I follow the line of thought you propose there, but my senses are telling me otherwise, and that combined is not a happy feeling. For the negotiations, seeing as there is no clear path, the most obvious is to put in place minimums before or alongside or outside of anything else. This used to take place on a bilateral basis between countries, but is not possible this way under EU stewardship, even though many different laws and attitudes found in different countries remain, and it is not feasible to expect EU to handle them as it is both ineffective, biased towards its own gain, and in no position to handle countries that are barely able to handle themselves. Most EU countries are so mired in the workings of the union that they are barely aware anymore what it means to take independent decisions. I suppose if it has to go into open resentment it will, the UK being in a better position to handle that, and if EU goes to pieces we are better off well outside of it also. I don’t mind EU complaining about its dues, but the British should be ( and I think will be) careful not to give other countries or EU anything much else by way of target to use for own benefit.
So are ya fer it or aggin it? 🙂
I think PM May will get a strengthened hand in telling Brussels to just go away. I suspect (but its a toss up) that Greece, Spain, France and Italy have just about exited the EU **mentally** even if they are officially still members.
I don’t see any point in England bothering to negotiate with Brussels. England has bigger priorities, and the infants running Brussels obviously need a diaper change
🙂
Wonder if Theresa May will pull a Trump ” Was going to walk away from the EU (hey I would never haver been in this job if I didn’t support Brexit) – but now I am Prime Minister in my own right – decided its better to negotiate how we can work together to build a stronger EU”
Fully agree with this. This is blackmail pure and simple. EU and solidarity? Ha! Germany now tries to achieve what it couldn’t in the WWII through financial means. Finance is a gun and politics is to know when to pull the trigger.
It is not up to Merkel, so she can f*ck off.
Britain is a third country? To what ? If she places EU as a first country Germany is no country.
Brits have illusions over how well they might fare from EU ? Welfare ? Aaaaah, welcome signs and teddy bears…
Merkel should be removed, there is no space for this kind of sham in international relations, all that is needed is to set and preserve the most basic of a framework … like actually being able to cross borders outwards , or process paperwork of whatever kind, EU is going back in time… but what would politicians do without an agenda???
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/04/25/elections-today-the-predictable-rigging-suspects-in-pursuit-of-the-unpredictable-electorates/
has a hyper-critical look, and who would deny him that opinion? Certainly sounder than some others we are presented.
Well, Mish, it is a good question, and my answer would be that the Bremainers haven’t yet given up, and that a good portion of those are the Tories.
May called for the snap elections solely because the opposition has imploded and she is giving it as little time as possible to right the ship before greatly expanding her majority in Parliament. In other words, the snap elections have nothing to do with Brexit. The British government will negotiate because it delays Brexit indefinitely, especially until a second referendum can be called to overturn the first one.
Yes, mine is the cynical view, but cynicism in today’s world has gotten a bit too successful.
Similar, I will believe it when I see it. In theory, now that Article 50 is signed and delivered, any failure in negotiation will simply lead to hard exit. If we consider that the actual exit of UK from EU would have taken place at the same time as the next general election, I think it is clear also that there would have been all kinds of pressure on UK government to deliver according to whatever mood and its interpretation gave at that time, which would have left a lot of room for outside influence, and not necessarily in the direction of making sure the follow through of Brexit was thorouh. Still, should not stop anyone from questioning where events are now headed.
it increasingly ćlear that the EU is a German-dominated construct with France submitting to this domination. There are many in France starting to realise this, not Macron who is a starry-eyed liberal globalist, but if elected it will soon be obvious he is a poodle. How this all works out, who knows? But the UK will not suffer German domination, that’s for sure. And this will be self-evidently so as Brexit negotiations proceed. There is a lot of EU-UK trade and business at stake. The polticians and eurocrats can talk but businessmen act.
” EU is a German-dominated construct..” Touche!
The UK should whistle in the dark and remind herself of her strengths:
#1, the trade deficit of what, 50 bn pounds? (Mostly with Germany).
#2, millions of EU workers m o r e than Britis working in the EU.
Bad things will happen when the EU’s fiscal union negotiations begin. As a German, I’m dreading the future for German taxpayers…
Slam on 10% tariffs – and see who cries first. A: the Krauts!
Germans do as they are told. You’ll be OK. Keep working!
Germans are lucky they have jobs, just look at Greece, Italy. Pay tax, give it to the Southerners or transfer jobs down there.
Your call, you have a ballot box?
“#2, millions of EU workers m o r e than Britis working in the EU.”
There is a reason for that: Not enough qualified people native to the UK to fill vacancies. The EU workers leaving the UK hurts the UK not EU. Output from the UK will drop.
Err – might it also be because they don’t have jobs in the EU?
If they return to no jobs expect problems at their home nations when they vote against their sclerosis status quo.
UK became employer of LAST RESORT Carlos.
Wake-up! Change is coming wherever you are.
Dr Richard North, author of the excellent but very long book called The Great Deception has a blog http://www.eureferendum.com. He has spent a life time studying the EU and how it functions and he has outlined a sensible plan for UK leaving the EU project (Flexcit). As I understand it the plan will involve trading infrastructure remaining intact but will mean that the UK leaves the political ‘hub’. This plan which has been well thought out by people who fully understand the directives and workings etc of the EU has NEVER, as far as I am aware, been discussed or aired in the mainstream. Either the politicians are unaware of it or they wish to give the impression that BREXIT is going to be so difficult and damaging that it should be rethought.
Thanks
The Department for the Exit of the EU (DEXEU) are fully aware of Flexcit.
It has been analysed and considered.
There has been a group of well educated people in Law, Commerce and The City working on various aspects for a number of years just in case the opportunity to exit ever arose.
The below applies to both sides.
“Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.” – Mike Tyson
DExEU -https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union
Mish,
Your analysis is spot on.
I would go further to say that even Remain camp must now support a hard exit, as any negotiated deal will be so one-sided as to inflict the maximum punishment, for which everyone in the UK will have to pay – in perpetuity.
Yes, walking away will have very negative consequences, but only in the short term. But UK can rebuild from there. Better that than the alternative.
In any event, I have been watching and listening to the Brexit Minister, David Davies. He is woefully weak (Brussels cannot have failed to notice) and judging by his rhetoric, his team will be just as bad. If UK decides to enter this lion’s den for talks, UK will get slaughtered.
frau merkel will not be chancellor of germany in a few months – so her credibility is de minimis for stating any policy position. indeed, the fact is that neither the UK nor EU politicians have any credible negotiating position to put forward, until general elections in all countries are held. this leaves the unelected EU commission and unelected UK civil servants to do what they can until political direction and influence can be brought to bear.
note that almost 2/3 of the MP’s in the UK parliament are EU apologists and will likely be voted out of office (tories, labour, lib/dems, SNP, Ulster Unionists, Plaid Cymru, Greens etc) at the next election unless they have something to stand for that FOCUSSES ON THE UK.
Britains quarterly deficit with the EU is 25 billion pounds (100 billion a year) – see TABLE 1, here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/feb2017
the UK election will likely be a lot closer than the polls suggest IF political parties select candidates that put the UK first.
the EU is now a third country to the UK – in fact, until the UK negotiates trade and mutual migration pacts – all countries are third countries as far as the UK is concerned.
the UK needs to promote countries such as the US, Canada, India, China, Australia, NZ, Brazil, Russia to “first countries”
IMHO the UK needs to begin illegal negatiations immediately after the UK general election on June 8th in order to do its bit to make the world a safer place. the UK needs to turn its back on the warmongers of Europe that seek to inflame the middle east (again) and demonize russia. the UK also needs to expel all EU and non-EU migrants here without a work permit and allow only those on tourist visas to remain. promoting coutnries to fisrt countries should involve recprocal exchanges of people between the UK and the third country.
lastly, the UK needs to sack all those MP’s that support a fixed 0.7% of GDP to be spent on international aid – around 15 billion a year. this money needs to be spent on those legal immigrants – EU/non-EU – who are in the UK that need it to become housesd, healthed and educated in English. right now, a large proportion of that 15 billio is being spent on supporting the infrastructure of terrorism in places like Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other (mainly african) countries – it even is spent in India to allow India to develop its space program whilst turning its back on its own Indian people.
Agree with you there. For some reason politicians have taken to spending into influence abroad. This is not how it used to happen, not to this degree anyway. The British are outgoing and capable and have always forged a presence ( usually helpful) for themselves abroad, usually by simply involving themselves where it is needed, at ground level. They are using the slogan of Global Britain, if they want something along those lines they would put in a much more interactive form of support for citizens and businesses abroad, instead of occupying the higher ground. This means handling or recognising the dirt that is encountered at everyday level and making sure the diplomatic missions are able to handle it. This is where the real influence is, this is where integration, learning, good relations, are forged, not on TV or by vast spending. That way appreciation would largely replace the credit/blame show that is underway. UK cannot organise the world, cannot buy that, only set a real functioning example.
Crysangle, agreed. Development is also better for poorer countries than hand outs and it comes through trade and business investment.
There are already details of an African deal. Various African states gave up on dealing with the EU as it was too protectionist against the one main thing outside of minerals they had to offer – agricultural products.
Behind closed doors the British politicians do not want to leave the EU. Stated by many and this will drag out as long as possible.
Notice how Germany is now speaking for all members of the EU without any other member country having a say? Gotta love the German republic of Europe without a shot being fired. The only reason is because the Germans use the same valued currency as everyone else in the Euro.
Why it’s the Fourth Reich!
Fully agree. Negotiations are a waste of time because the EU has to make an example of UK to keep others from leaving. Will be interesting to watch.
May will have an increased majority.
Macron will win.
Merkel will win.
UK will come out from under ECJ jurisdiction and implement a work permit system.
That’s it, May will then go soft and with a majority be able to get whatever deal signed off by Parliament.
Various Brexit groups will be aggrieved but with UKIP in a shambles have no way to express dissatisfaction.
She says she wants a bigger majority to strengthen her hand but it’s also to force through any compromise deal at the UK end too.
“…Brexit groups will be aggrieved but with UKIP in a shambles have no way to express dissatisfaction.”
Disagree here… the ‘dissent’ genie is out of the bottle. I pity the politician/system that directly contradicts the still-latent-but-enormous populist/nationalist movement. Both May & Trump are tempting fate & failure by crossing the very electorate that put them in power.
you are right about systems that contradict the will of the people, but I don’t view current upswelling as “populism/naitonalism”. rather, i view that feture as the increasing return of “common sense”. again, IMO, we have indulged libtard socialism and corrupt globalism (that evades taxes and wage costs via transfer pricing of goods/services to the lowest tax domicile or labour costs) for more than five decades – encouraged by flawed dogmas/mantras taught at business schools the world over.
In other words – it is the fifty year old libtard socialism that is “populist”. Common sense is transmitted into policy via elections. People are not stupid, though they are tolerant. To be negative (though common sensical) it is lying, cheating, stealing and ignorant politicians of all parties here and abroad, that consider the tax payers trough as their private domain via the constant fiscal deficits that they run and which turn into mountains of government debt, that in turn steal the future from our children.
lastly, in the UK, with its central payer system for health, common sense says that it should not need 700,000 medical professionals (and another 600,000 ancillary statff) or cost 120 billon pounds a year for the national health service (around 2,000 pounds a year for every man woman and child and one medical professional plus am ancillary worker for every 90 people in the UK.
see here: http://www.nhsconfed.org/resources/key-statistics-on-the-nhs
the NHS claims to treat 1million people a day, so its medical professional to patient ratio is 666,666 per day and it means that each person is seen by (slightly more tha) one medical professional – common sense says that this ought be enough, but somehow the NHS is experiencing a funding and staffing crisis that wil be exacerbated following Brexit. never ind that 666,666 patients a day means that 63 million people are not being seen! I have my theory that of those 666,666 a day, 300,000 are repeat patients that should not be treated inhosiptals at all.
Don’t worry, the EU has plenty of time to increase their demands much farther. And May has yet to say that she agrees with the Swedish iirc position that the UK as opposed to the EU is not subject to the WTO, so complaints to the WTO about what the British will be doing to the Germans are meaningless.
Uk was founding member of WTO and wants to be an independent in WTO.
The claim of parts of the EU is that when the UK joined the EU its independent membership in the WTO ceased to exist, so they will have to negotiate to get in again.
UK already erased, February 2017. What bills to pay if already gone from the EU?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/04/27/20170429_brexit.png