Trump is giddy as are many Republicans over a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare that took place moments ago in the House.

Before anyone gets too excited, the bill may be dead on arrival in the Senate.

Either way, the consequences are not pretty.

Reuters reports U.S. House Passes Healthcare Bill in Big Win for Trump

“The Republican bill, known formally as the American Health Care Act, aims to repeal most Obamacare taxes, including a penalty for not buying health insurance. It would slash funding for Medicaid, the program that provides insurance for the poor, and roll back much of Medicaid’s expansion.”

Dead in the Senate?

Next consider In Senate, Pessimism Over ObamaCare Repeal

A senior GOP senator said the chances of getting 51 votes for legislation based on the House healthcare bill are less than 1 in 5. The senator also put the chances that the House bill will meet Senate budgetary rules preventing a filibuster at less than 1 in 5, meaning portions of the legislation would have to be removed.

Republican senators say the House bill will have to undergo substantial revisions and they have serious doubts about whether the House will accept those changes.

Prematurely Cheering

A pair of tweets by Caroline Baum explain how I feel as well.

Trumpcare

Let’s assume that months from now (and that’s about how long it will take) some sort of compromise bill passes the Senate. Let’s also assume the House votes to go along.

Then there will be winners and losers, but far more losers than winners. The losers will be upset. Even those unaffected may be upset if they blame the bill for increasing their costs.

For What?

This folly could cost the Republicans their majority in the 2018 midterm election.

For what? The bill nibbles around the edges and provides no incentives to lower costs.

This is a disaster on-deck with virtually no chance of an upside. Republicans now own healthcare (Trumpcare)  whether a compromise bill passes or not.

Hooray?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock