EC vs EC
Donald Tusk, president of the European Council went after Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission for Juncker’s leak of his dinner meeting with UK prime minister Theresa May.
Following ill-fated dinner meeting, Juncker phoned Angela Merkel “Theresa May Lives in a Different Galaxy”. Someone, presumably Juncker’s chief of staff, Martin Selmayr, leaked the results of the dinner meeting and Juncker’s phone call to the German press.
Since then, Juncker stated, “Brexit will never be a success”. In a Speech on Friday, delivered in French, Juncker also stated the “English language is losing importance”. Finally, Juncker stated he will not spend more than 30 minutes a week dealing with Brexit.
As a result of his antics, Tusk and Merkel both laid into Juncker.
Brexit Will Never be a Success
Politico reports Brexit will never be a success: Juncker’s top aide.
Striding into the war-of-words between London and Brussels over the coming negotiations between Britain and the EU, Selmayr — the powerful German bureaucrat who runs the European Commission — said at a POLITICO event that “Brexit will never become a success. It is a sad and sorry event.”
Commission president Juncker will not spend more than 30 minutes a week dealing with Brexit, added Selmayr.
‘English is Losing Importance’
Also consider ‘English is Losing Importance’.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, opted to deliver a speech in French on Friday morning because he said “English is losing importance” in Europe.
He gave the comments, which are unlikely to mend fences after a war of words between Brussels and London over Brexit negotiations, at the “State of the Union” conference in Florence’s Palazzo Vecchio — an annual event for European dignitaries.
Tusk Attacks Juncker
The European Commission is now under fire from the European Council for the incompetent handling of the private dinner between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May. Frankfurter Allgemeine has talked to Donald Tusk and his people and hears criticism of Juncker – and, we presume, Juncker’s chief of staff Martin Selmayr – who leaked the information to a German newspaper. The view from the council is that the leak had gone too far and did not help anybody. The negotiations are going to be difficult enough as they are. And Tusk himself is quoted as saying that if we start to quarrel at the beginning of the negotiations, we will never come to conclude a deal.
The Commission yesterday doubled down on with an assertion that they will only spend 30 minutes a week on Brexit – which is another way of saying that Juncker is not supporting a Brexit agreement.
The implication from all this is fairly clear. The Commission is trying to sabotage the process, not very intelligently, while the European Council at least lives in the hope that a deal could be possible. We find it very hard to understand what other purpose this leak could have had than to achieve maximum provocation.
The hostilities will now accelerate work on a plan B within the UK, that would allow the UK to exit the EU without an Article 50 agreement. We still think that an agreement should be possible – but not along the lines of the EU’s hastily updated negotiating mandate. The draft mandates that had been leaked previously at least constituted a viable basis for negotiations. This has now become more of a gamble.
The above is from Eurointelligence by email.
Merkel Attacks Juncker
In addition to Tusk blasting Juncker, The Independent reports Angela Merkel ‘angry with Jean-Claude Juncker’ over leak of Theresa May’s disastrous Brexit dinner.
Angela Merkel is angry with Jean-Claude Juncker over the leaking of details of a tense dinner meeting with Theresa May about Brexit, it has been claimed.
Der Spiegel reports the German Chancellor reacted angrily to the leak. Donald Tusk, the president of the EU’s ruling council, was forced to step in to call for “mutual respect” after Ms. May’s aggressive speech outside Number 10.
In her speech, Ms. May said: “The events of the last few days have shown that – whatever our wishes, and however reasonable the positions of Europe’s other leaders – there are some in Brussels who do not want these talks to succeed, who do not want Britain to prosper.
“So now more than ever we need to be led by a Prime Minister and a Government that is strong and stable.”
Juncker Sabotage
For icing on the cake, recall the EU upped its Brexit divorce bill from €60 billion to €100 billion. I commented on that ploy in EU Buffoonery: Brexit Divorce Bill Upped to €100 Billion.
Juncker does not want Brexit negotiations to succeed. I fail to see how there can possibly be any other conclusion. Even the most ardent deal believers, such as the folks at Eurointelligence, should face the facts.
Just Leave
My position has been clear all along: Just Leave.
- March 29: Bad Brexit Deal Better Than No Deal? Mathematical Idiocy! Odds of No Deal?
- March 5: Brexit Reality: “Paying Any Exit Fee is absurd”
- February 19: Brexit Fast-Track Dead: EU Insists Upon Divorce Settlement Before Trade Talks
- December 2: Brexit is a Religious Battle (And You Can’t Negotiate Religion)
- November 29: Brexit Stacked Deck? Which Way? Don’t Negotiate, Just Leave!
- October 17: EU Doesn’t Want Brexit “Negotiations”, the EU Wants “Blood Revenge”
On April 28, I wrote Brexit Negotiations: Why Bother?
Only by walking away – showing a willingness to let time expire – does the UK have a chance at reasonable negotiations. Even then, I am not sure what the chance is because the “EU’s desire to punish the UK and set rules in the name of solidarity” likely exceeds the desire to walk away with a win-win situation.
Plan B
Thanks to Junker’s Buffoonery, Theresa May has no choice but to start Plan B: Exit without agreement.
Only by walking away – showing a willingness to let time expire – does the UK have a chance at reasonable negotiations. Even then, I am not sure what the chance is because the “EU’s desire to punish the UK and set rules in the name of solidarity” likely exceeds the desire to walk away with a win-win situation.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Surely you’d think there is some upper bound on the pigheaded arrogant mendacity of unelected EU officials like Junker. Nope.
Agreed 100%.
Mish is Right. UK can just walk away and deep-six all the negotiations B.S.
All the Psycho EU is doing is trying to torment the U.K. with the E.U.’s
psycho ways with the negotiations.
UK must learn:
“The more E.U. you cut off, the taller you grow!”
Indeed, just leave is the only option. UK has the whip hand here, as Germany would be plunged into a depression without British high end consumers, and France would be equally badly off without British tourists.
Some as posted in the past:
A) Separation will be painful to UK, economically. Not a free lunch at all.
B) Junker will be out of his role on health grounds before the end.
C) UK is planning on the basis there will be no deal.
D) Legitimate financial demands will be settled on the balance of liabilities vs assets.
E) All shared resources under UK jurisdiction will return to full UK control – fishing.
F) Repatriation of EU prisoners in UK prisons will commenced on exit day + 1.
G) Great repeal bill will execute and no ECJ jurisdiction at exit day + 1.
H) Work visa system in place at exit day + 1.
I) Northern Ireland likely to return to conflict of some type.
J) Gibraltar garrison to be bolstered.
I could go on.
UK will finish the job of federalising and undergo massive House of Lords reform.
BBC to be part privatised, broken up imho.
UK defence priorities will be changed. Some won’t like it at all.
Re the BBC, we can only dream. To too many in the UK it has become like the NHS, a sacred cow that defines Britishness itself.
Preposterous. Read my comment above. The EU is looking at a depression without British trade and tourists.
Guess I have to test if comments are still working.
Oh, good. Maybe the witheld comments will appear eventually. Must have been the links, but didn’t even say ‘being moderated’.
The problem I have withe the site is, my like votes are not counted. I suspect other like votes are not counted. Rarely I see a name next to a like vote. I have never been so lucky here. I am truly not a Geek.
Many have mentioned here that they cannot get the ‘like’ button to work. People suggest putting +1 as a comment but that is messy if everyone does so. I stopped trying to use the like button because it would always ask me to fully sign in etc. Shame really because it adds to the discussion to see people voted, as well as encouraging people too. Just the choice of commenting system, ones Mish used previously generally worked well with respect.
If you click and hold the click ( long click) on ‘person’ on a touch screen usually a name pops up on the screen somewhere ( thanks George 🙂 ). Not sure if that works on all browsers, or on a pc.
If local elections hold for Tories, May will be on a strong wicket after June 8. I hope she lays into the EU after the elections, showing them up for what they are… a bunch of buffoons.
Can’t think of any good reason for England to waste time negotiating with Brussels at all.
Worst case scenario, Germany will want to continue exporting to England. French farmers will rebel against Paris when they lose market share to Latin America.
Even if they were dumb enough to stay under Brussels thumb, England has a lot to gain from expanding trade to commonwealth countries, south america, africa, southeast Asia.
Why focus on the stagnant past (the EU), when the best opportunities are elsewhere?
Poor Spanish fishermen will miss access to British fisheries… 200 mile limit.
Danes screwed too. UK so pissed off expect order to UK dockyards for fleet of fishery patrol vessels. Good for Scotland and Tories in Scotland.
If EU does not allow clearing to continue in UK, this seems like the case by default, this would hit major EU banks… in the worst case, OTC derivatives would need to be terminated and collateral sold on the open market…
This would result in huge volatility and potential defaults of financial institutions…
Sooner or later it will get to bureaucrats in Brussels and then they will start running around…
Funny that this has not been leaked to press yet…
Let’s see when it hits EU what removal of UK actually means…
May through UK government actions (and maybe a little help from “the City”) could probably financially destroy Merkel’s (EU’s) Fourth Reich.
About time……….
Victor, they know what Jenga pieces to pull out to encourage severe EU bank stress.
There are some cold blooded patriotic pro-Brexit types high up in The City.
😡
Thanks be to God!
Lets hope the fools in Brussels continue their drunken temper tantrums.
Great for British and Swiss based financial institutions. Not sure what bankers want to pay transaction taxes anyway.
Great for Heathrow and Geneva airports. Not so great for Frankfurt.
Great for South American agricultural exporters; not so great for French farmers.
A few translations to help understand what the quotes mean:
EU mumbo: “Finally, Juncker stated he will not spend more than 30 minutes a week dealing with Brexit.”
Plain language: Brexit planning seriously cuts into the time Juncker prefers to spend “sipping” his brandy.
EU mumbo: “English is losing importance” in Europe.
Plain language: “Continental Europe is losing relevance everywhere outside continental Europe”
EU mumbo: “Angela Merkel is angry with Jean-Claude Juncker over the leaking of details of a tense dinner meeting with Theresa May about Brexit”
Plain language: “Germany is an export economy, and Merkel’s survival and relevance depend on uninterrupted exports to paying customers like the UK. Push comes to shove, Germany’s tax base will chose exports over Brussels”
? Mish ?: “Theresa May has no choice but to start Plan B: Exit without agreement.”
Participating in silly negotiations with a drunk Belgian was always political theater and nothing more. Everyone knows there won’t be an agreement. Everyone knows the German tax base will chose exports over Brussels, so trade with England will continue with or without an agreement. French farmers know there are a half dozen south american countries that would love to take British market share away. And BP has already explained to London that Russia is more important than Brussels.
England’s Plan A was always to go through the motions of negotiating with Brussels, but focus efforts on trade agreements with the former commonwealth countries, plus USA and Asia. Not being entangled with Brussels bureaucracy is an advantage.
“Plan B: Exit without agreement.”….the most economical solution….
Well… this depends…if EU acts silly, both EU and UK will lose, the question is if EU system is flexible enough to do what is the best for EU people, business, economy rather some some institutional elite.. I am not sure…
WTO rules are not that bad if GBP devalues even more than now…
What May should be doing is preparing some trade treaties with non-EU countries…
Like BRICS…Australia… Canada..
The trade deals can switch UK consumers to alternative markets hitting EU hard…Merkel understand it…
The problem with Brexit process is time… 2 years are too short to develop not only legislature but also implement anything… The only thing they can do is STOP something. So the negotiations will be WHAT to stop since STOPPING ALL will be the most painful option.
In that case UK has a strong position as WHAT to stop is really defined by referendum. Now EU must select what they want to stop without hurting themselves and at the same time hurting UK the most… not that many options really…
May and/or her deputies have already been negotiating trade deals with Canada, Aussi, and BRIC. Central American (and some African) countries have been sending fruit baskets to UK food marketers with not very subtle hints that French farmers can be replaced with a phone call.
UK already has a legislature; they don’t need two years or even two seconds.
The EU has nothing to offer. Germany needs to keep its export markets in UK. Rotterdam wants to remain an oil trading center (so they need both BP and Shell). EU member states really don’t have the option of cutting off England.
If there is no agreement, then independent Scotland, Wales, & Ulster will be joining the EU within the year. Rump England will be lonely.
Rump England will be a bit of a joke. One can expect Rump England to be kicked out of the UNSCR and Brussels to take its place. At least Rump England will be able to be Washington’s poodle if Whiteland swallows.
LOL – the Eurocrats hold all the cards
LOL – the Eurocrats hold all the cards
Ridiculous
But yes, they think they do
Hard Brexit hurts EU far more than UK – Far more
Totally agree with Mish.
An EU that sets out to punish the U.K. ultimately punishes itself.
True both in the short term through an economic hit, and medium-long term through boosting anti-EU attitude on the continent.
Since the European Council are unelected by the public they are able to mantain such an idiotic position.
And when I say ‘medium-long term’ I really do mean exactly that because although the continent is getting a little bit anti-EU, it will continue to develop once citizens see the bickering, posturing, and ultimately the radically new budget contributions required for each EU27 member after our departure.
The Drunker is from Luxembourg, not Belgium.
To clarify…. the EU (including the drunk) are from Brussels.
As you said, the drunk’s country of origin is Lux
The Drunckers behaviour and that of the Nazi War Criminal grandson was a disgrace and it shows why there is no point whatsoever in trying to deal with these people. Interestingly there is a possibility we don’t need to do so -:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/britain-does-not-need-to-trigger-article-50-to-leave-the-eu-2016-11?r=US&IR=T
Article 50, and all EU nonsense, only matters to countries that want to stay.
England already left the EU, and there is nothing Brussels can do about it.
Trade terms are up for negotiation, but ultimately trade deals will be decided by the EU member state with the most to lose from cutting off England. That country will do a deal with England, with or without Brussels ok. And it seems there are quite a few member countries in that position. The only question is which one cracks first (and gets the better deal) and which one waits (and suffers)…
Article 50 is for lawyers and media talking heads to bicker over. It has no teeth and no relevance.
Juncker is fast becoming persona non grata in Britain.
He needs to be reminded that Britain is a nuclear power along with France, and the two of us are the keystone of Europe’s security.
How we trade is one thing but it doesn’t match up to how many battalions you have.
Britain does not need to negotiate, nor France, for that matter. Juncker is all bluster at this point, and he knows it. (so does Merkel, which is why she is so annoyed with Juncker’s big mouth). .
No country has to stay in the European Union if it chooses not to.
Behind all this the usual diplomatic channels are being used. The degree of UK anger has been expressed.
Attempts to interfere in the UK election were beyond the pale, blatant, totally unacceptable.
The EU establishment has massively disrespected a good ally and are no longer trusted at all by the UK Gov. No one should trust them – globally. They have shown what they truly are. Out in the open for all to see.
May said the UK position was misrepresented.
Might be Junker has now used his English language skills (or any lack of) as excuse to get himself out of hot water, explaining his denegrating English and using French etc.
He’s best never stepping on UK soil again, along with Muttly
C’est vrai, Jean Claude. Le english is loosing to le chinese and le arabique in Europe.
If a buck snorts in the forest does anyone hear it? The answer is no, no one heard it and no one really cares if they didn’t hear it. And of course that depends on whether Junker can actually do a buck snort in the forest. I think not. Merkel is a supercilious boor and who cares what she thinks? It should be noted that both Merkel and Junker are former communist party members in good standing, hence their collective snorting is of little consequence to the average individual who inhabits Europe.
What are we to surmise from this position of collective idiocy from Junker and Merkel? Drunkenness is a virtue for former members of the communist party and there is no mountain of BS high enough to keep her away from stupidity. This is a non news story.
Everybody missed Junckers collateral damage. The statement “English is losing its importance.” completely offends the Irish and Scots who wish to stay in the EU so much they would secede from the UK. Speaking in French may be construed as interfering with French elections, which I’m sure is an EU no-no.
Mish is so wrong on BREXIT but that’s ok. Everybody has his/her own belief system…
The dynamics with BREXIT are troublingly similar to the Greek-Troika negotiations, in which Greece badly overestimated its negotiating leverage, playing a game of chicken and assuming that the Europeans and the IMF would find it necessary to relent from some of their demands to avoid a Greek default. But the ECB held the whip by virtue of it already bending its rules beyond the breaking point in keeping the Greek banking system on life support. All the ECB had to do was withdraw it and it would bring the Greek economy to its knees. It did that in July 2015 and Greece capitulated in less than three weeks.
The UK had already burned so many bridges with Europe even before the Brexit vote that it effectively has no trust and no good back channels for defusing confrontational and uninformed-looking statements. So what might normally be shrugged off braggadocio and posturing instead looked an awful lot like official positions. And not only is that increasingly the case, both sides are digging in when the gap between them was already so large as to appear unsurmountable.
May has repeatedly taken aggressive anti-EU positions in public. There was a brief period where it seemed as if she recognized how weak the British bargaining position actually was, shortly after filing the formal Article 50 notice, when she softened some of her rhetoric while on an official trip to the Middle East. But having decided on snap elections to deliver a crushing blow to Labour, give her her own mandate, and push out the day of Tory reckoning for Brexit from 2020 to 2022, she’s gone back to her old high bluster to content approach.
There are several reports in the German press – written by non-Germans and with mostly British background – which are extremely negative on Mrs. May’s approach:
Poland was seen as the only strong supporter of UK – not anymore after May went after the Polish workers.
May misread that her behaviour would unite EU members as never has seen before – that crushed her BREXIT dream – get everything and pay for nothing LOL
“the Europeans were unusually fast, unified, and firm in their responses to the Brexit announcement, staking out positions from the day after the Brexit vote, such as “No access to the single market without accepting the four freedoms” which includes the free movement of people. Importantly, Merkel backed these statements, as well as other important ones, such as “No cherry picking,” “No negotiations until Article 50 is triggered,” and “No negotiation of a trade deal until exit arrangements have been finalized”. And some of these tough positions weren’t due to the Europeans seeking to be difficult; they came about as the result of treaty requirements.”
That Mrs. Merkel came out so strong is very unusual, she likes to move quietly but powerful behind the scenes. It was written that Mrs. May was hoping that her ‘sister’ would be much more accomodating…
Then there is the issue with the UK pensioners in Spain, which are NOT paying into the Spanish health insurance system but use it for FREE to their full advantage.. That will be a bad awakening for these ca. 1mn British people…
true – Whitehall has no leverage
Exactly. Greeks had the same delusional hope that they have enough leverage to both have the cake and eat it. The same hard awakening in sight for Brexit as well – hitting the wall of reality will be rude.
Busy day here in France, people lining up to vote massively against another delusion of Mish: any chance of MLP to win in a mature and reasonable society where Brexit and Trump have further opened the eyes on the sheer irresponsibility of populist promises.
Difference is UK has its own currency.
Control the currency, control the country.
That’s why Euro members can’t leave and are trapped even if it crushes their population employment opportunities.
Without the safety valve of emigration to work in UK pressure will build back at home and trouble will ensue in time.
I think major global breakdown 2019/20 just post Brexit date when we all come crashing down. Many weaknesses come together around then including even greater collapse in trade as UK goes off line.
No winners.
Potentially, the big losers are the British that are settled in Europe – but the worst scenario is that they will be given the opportunity to adopt local nationality – they won’t be kicked out.
One cannot compare the Brexit to the exit of a member that has adopted the Euro. Euro currency members will have to reinstitute their own currency – for the small and weak ones – like Greece, this is an almost impossible political decision.
Brexit is about the future, not the past. Europe’s future prospects are bleak, and her army of faceless, unelected, unaccountable bureaucratic overlords will drag Europe down into a deep hole until the system collapses or explodes. The trajectory is set, the precise timing is not.
This is destination is inevitable. History teaches that such institutions simply do not reform themselves, they do not relinquish power willingly and they have to be dissolved.
Britain, apart from other Euro members, never severed its international ties, its Embassies, its currencies, its financial influence (this was expanded) whilst a member of Europe. All the infrastructure of global trade still remain. It is just a matter of telling potential customers that Britain is open for business again.
Germany must choose between their $60 billion trade surplus with Britain, or EU membership. Germany will Greave.
“Angela Merkel is angry with Jean-Claude Juncker over the leaking of details of a tense dinner meeting with Theresa May about Brexit…”
LOL. It was back in 2014 that Merkel supported Juncker for president of the European Commission over objections from former UK PM David Cameron:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-juncker-idUSKBN0EL0TO20140610
European Comission = unelected by public, gravy train.
European Council = elected heads of state.
-Is it any wonder the unelected twits are behaving like this?!
As far as I can see the EU does not do negotiation, nor democracy. These concepts are totally alien to these automata programmed with the mantra – MORE EUROPE. This dogma has been there since its conception but it appears that successive British politicians have been oblivious to this. What is quite frightening is that even at this critical stage the penny has still not dropped.
Junker has now taken full responsibility for the future failure.
The 30 minutes statement was very silly.
All fingers now point at him and dereliction of his duty, along with his team.
You have to wonder how such a man found himself as top honcho.
The EU is obviously to blame along with its procedures.
Not good.
The EU needs to hire a good PR agency …
EU’S own lawyers say 100Bn euro leaving bill is not legally enforceable.
Junker takes responsibility for negotiations failing over next 2 years by not spending more than 30 mins per month on it.
He won’t spend time because he knows it will only help UK if he does.
Article 50 is a farce according to Junkers position and attitude. Why take note of any other Article when the President decides what to spend time on?
Does he realise what he is saying and doing or is his brain raddled by booze?
No winners in this mess.
UK planning on basis of no deal, straight out the door 2019, approaching various to onshore work to avoid tariffs into UK. Food suppliers being approached from Commonwealth, South and North America, Africa.
What a mess.
What happens if UK and/or others take the Commission to court for not appropriately prioritising Article 50 leading to excess economic stress to all concerned?
Dereliction of duty? Sounds like Junker is acting negligently with his attitude.
Is that possible?
My guess is that any disputed amounts will end up in arbitration. My experience is that this will take a good 10 years or more after Brexit to conclude.
Probably will be friction over fishing rights. British fishermen previously had a reputation for aggressively defending their rights. Again this will end up in court – probably the Hague. Again this will take teams of lawyers 10 years or so.
The lawyers will be the winners (aren’t they always). Let’s hope that they are all British lawyers in London, who specialize in this sort of thing; although the Americans and French are also very good at it.
All rights resort back to source on leaving, including fishing.
Nothing to negotiate unless there is something in it for the UK to gain from a negotiation but that has to be offered by the EU.
I see the dispute over fishing rights to be the most serious issue where there will be actual conflict. British fishermen are a very proud and courageous group who are deeply resentful of EU restrictions, and they will expect to take back their traditional fishing grounds in 2 years time. The only way this can happen is for them to push their way into currently occupied regions; something the other fishermen are not going to tolerate.
It would not surprise me to see a naval presence of some sort to keep the various sides apart until a solution is negotiated.
Like the Cod war with Iceland. 1970’s.
Happened before.
They cannot ‘occupy’ another country’s territorial waters without conflict being the likely result.
Getting serious now.
“Government hires expert negotiator who helped avert nuclear war to advise on Brexit talks
William Ury previously acted as a mediator in conflicts in the Middle East, Indonesia, and the Balkans
The Government has hired a negotiator who specialises in military conflict resolution to advise on Brexit talks, as tensions escalate between Theresa May’s team and the European Union.
On Saturday, a spokesman for the Department for Exiting the European Union confirmed that officials held a meeting with William Ury, a Harvard Fellow who has acted as a mediator in a number of conflicts in the Middle East, Indonesia, and the Balkans.
Most recently he was part of a team which helped end the bloody civil war in Colombia, where the Government had been fighting the Farc insurgency since the 1960s.
And his website says he helped the US and Soviet governments create crisis centres during the 1980s designed to avert an accidental nuclear war
Read more ….”
Date: 7 May 2017
Source: http://www.independent.co.uk
So this is now on par with military conflict and bloody civil war.
Looks like the British government has judged this to be a possibility. Junker must have really p*ssed off PM May.
William Ury has a 2010 Ted Talk here:
https://www.ted.com/talks/william_ury
Juncker certainly has become a penny Hitler.
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Juncker needs to be removed from office before there is civil unrest in many Eu countries ,as citizens want professional and appointed politicians banned , and the EU leaders made accountable in a court of law . The non application of the rule of law concerning illegal migrants has made people realise that the current politicians and political parties are responsible for all the problems in the EU and that without massive change the EU will fail , with all the consequences to the European and world financial and business sectors . If this happens people like Junkers should be investigated and punished in a court of law