The US economy is so good it’s beyond full employment and above potential says John Williams, the San Francisco Fed president.
Williams Stands by his outlook for Three or Four Hikes This Year.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said his outlook for three or four rate increases in 2017 hasn’t shifted, as the labor market shows signs of expanding beyond its sustainable rate and the economy is operating above potential.
“I haven’t changed, again, my views on what appropriate policy is” for the remainder of the year, Williams told reporters on Friday after a speech in New York, referring to his comments last month that three or four hikes would be required.
On Saturday, at an event in California, Williams said the economy “is operating above potential.”
“It’s nice to see further confirmation that that first quarter GDP number was an aberration,” Williams said of the [jobs] report. He previously said in response to questions from the audience that the U.S. “is at full employment, or maybe even a little bit beyond.”
Three more hikes coming? June is clearly on the table. By the way, is it possible to be above potential and above full employment? If so, why is wage growth so anemic?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If they actually hike, you can probably guess that the Fed is out to derail the Trump Administration. On the other hand, maybe they are talking about California hiking their taxes. That’s inevitable.
greg, a classic cult member, “if Trump fails the Fed derailed him” and I if Trump succeeds “he managed the Fed well”. Dumb and dumber I say.
Mish is correct in identifying the absurdity of Williams statements. But at the end of the day most any point of view by those with agenda’s of greed can be rationalized within the framework of the vagueness built into the English language. I think Mish understands that Williams wants a compliant workforce with minimal wages for the corporatocracy such that full employment occurs BEFORE wage increase pressures. That is the perfect definition for TPTB.
They’ll have to get Trump on the rails before they can derail him.
The Federal statisticians count people working 10 hours a week as “employed.” So one person could have 3 jobs, and the Feds admit they count them all……Sickening indifference to the American public.
Living in the Harold MacMillan economy “You’ve never had it so good!”
excellent point.
and this is just further proof that the Federal Reserve never served a useful function in the United States.
they only had two mandates all along-full employment and low inflation, and abject failures at both.
Yeah, wage growth flat, importation of foreign workers in both low and mid skill jobs, and conversion to robotics just screams full employment.
I think most people will stipulate that .Gov is fundamentally lying. At issue, and this was especially apparent around the election, is the question: “How much?”
Productivity growth back at levels last seen in 1979.
This is a recipe for “stagflation”.
Due to the enormous debt overhang and other deflationary factors (automation, offshoring, collapsing monetary velocity) we are only experiencing the “stag” part right now.
Shrinkflation too – everything seems to be getting smaller while more expensive.
How much of the commercial/industrial/consumer “debt-berg” is variable rate?
Answer: A lot. An awful lot.
If the economy isn’t already headed into recession, then these these charlatans will send it into one (or worse) with their idiotic rate hikes.
There is never anything idiotic about hiking, whenever interest rates are artificially depressed, as they are now. They could hike to 10% tomorrow, and “the economy”, and the world, would be a better place.
Doesn’t mean they’re not charlatans. Anyone plappering on about “what interests should be”, “full employment” and the rest of the macro jargon is, no matter what they end up setting rates at.
But in a high debt, high risk, overvalued everything environment, if you took away the Fed and all it’s distortions, rates would be much higher. And that is the rate that ought to prevail. Which makes increasing rates a good thing, as even if there is no chance these yahoos will ever get the rates high enough, at least by hiking, they may get a little closer. Hence a little less distorted. Hence a little better.
Rate hikes are never idiotic, whenever the current rate is lower than the rate that wold prevail absent the existence of the Fed and all its attendant distortions.
Which, although I’m no more of a “rate sage” than anyone else, is, in a high risk, high debt, overvalued everything, waay above where it is today. 10% tomorrow would be a nice place to start.
Doesn’t mean the clowns aren’t charlatans. Anyone plappering on about “setting interest rates,” “full employment,” and the rest of the mindless macro jargon, inevitably is. But even a broken clock…..etc.
Under full employment nobody would draw welfare except quadriplegics.
Under ‘full employment’ top STEM grads would actually get call-backs to their resume submissions.
Let’s just say that John Williams of Shadowstats, has different metrics and opinions on the employment numbers than the Fed and their minions…
Beyond full employment? Above Potential?
Sounds Beyond belief…
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-uyWAe0NhQ&w=560&h=315%5D
14,594,999 views, so if you act fast, you can be #14,595,000!
It says a lot about the Obama “recovery” that normalizing interest rates to equal CPI is causing complete panic.
As for the Fed sabotaging Trump…. lets be clear that Obamacare premium increases are sucking up all consumer discretionary spending, and that is causing an on-going recession. 70% of the economy is being taxed to death to pretend like insurance and care are somehow the same thing. Obamacare penalizes the healthy to pay for people who chose to live unhealthy lifestyles (smoking, obesity, etc) — and commits this fraud in a way that kills the middle class.
Janet Yellen, like BS Bernanke before her, has bet her entire academic career on neo-keynesian rubbish. She isn’t raising rates because she wants to, she doesn’t really have a choice.
Robbing savers to delay necessary economic adjustment is stupid policy no matter how many PhDs have staked their careers otherwise
Medex Man eat your meds now! Obamacare tax/premium increases r not “sucking up all descretionary spending” dumbo! The wealthy are doing well and spending big money on luxury brands. Look at Apple, Tesla, Tiffany, and the GLUX ETF for evidence of such. Yes hate radio Repugs claim those seeking actual health care from the health care system are “not living healthy lives”. Odd that these assholes don’t simply deny coverage to such abusers as smokers and instead enact policies that punish people who need healthcare, such as victims of cerebral palsy. The entire concept of insurance is distorted by capitalism, and while I am a huge proponent of capitalism, it does not serve medical care and other social services such as prison systems well. Apply the best system to serve the need. Capitalism to produce the best product for the buck. But allowing this efficient system to provide “healthcare” by simply competing to provide insurance care for healthy people that lead “good lives” is an insane endpoint. The healthcare system is supposed to take care of sick people and not just give healthy people checkups and plastic surgery.
Here come the Soros trolls…
just go into Walmart and look at all the obese people in their electric wheelchairs buying junk food with their WIC cards etc, how many young people are just too damn fat to even hold a job , they must all be diabetic and high BP so the government medicates them for obesity while they fatten them up with WIC funded poison.
You mean SNAP. One can only buy real food with WIC. SNAP (food stamps) should be eliminated and rolled into WIC.
A career academic with zero entrepreneurial skills who has never held a job outside a government job pontificating about the economy in the private sector. Fucking great.
He’s obviously never spent a day in his life inside a typical American corporate HR office, where they’re throwing out mountains of job applications without even bothering to look at them.
He’s never spent time at an on-campus career center where the career counsellors are pulling their hair out trying to help STEM grads find jobs.
He’s obviously never looked at the student loan numbers and seen that non-performing student loan debt is at record highs.
How do people with such obvious mental health issues get into positions of public office like this?
Could be it’s a feature and not a bug.
Here is a picture of the success socialism brings to the masses:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xrwFdW77uc
Makes you wonder just how much the Bernie Sanders crowd is smoking while demonstrating their intolerance all over Berkley.
Awful situation. In the old days they’d get machine-gunned. Maybe petrol is cheaper than bullets in Venezuela.
must be a muslim driver
National SOCIALISM.
Union of Soviet SOCIALIST Republics.
After 100 million odd murders you’d think people would get a clue by now but no.
Amazing how good marketing can rescue bad ideas.
Socialism: You wait in queues for bread.
Capitalism: Bread waits in queues for you.
“Here I am, crawling through barbed wire, over land mines, through rivers and mountains to escape the evils of free market capitalism… said no one… ever!” – anon
….Nice quote.
But unfortunately, “Here I am, cheering on the junta to rob others via debasement, to pump up my ‘assets.’ And banning my neighbors from knitting a sweater or a building a house to keep from freezing to death, since that would ‘lower the vaijue’ of my moth eaten sweater and roach infested shack, which they would otherwise be desperate enough to do anything for” is what is being passed of as “free market capitalism” by illiterate dittoheads these days.
Which is realistically what the Sanders groupies are protesting. Of course, their “solution” is, if even possible, worse still. But then again, what else is new in Idiotopia? It’s not as is the “Fox News” version of totalitarianism has anything to do with “free” anything, either. Heck, Afghanistan under the Taliban was a better ran place than this dump. As at least the people were properly armed in relation to “their” government. Hence had some semblance of a realistic veto on policies whose outright idiocy went too far beyond acceptable.
so if everything is so good here, why did the 6.5 month debt extension call for $1.167 trillion in new debt? Buehler, anybody? What have they done to our money?
Coming soon: 50 year duration.
If everybody’s working why are 45,000,000 still on food stamps?
Because Bernanke’s neo-keynesian policies prevented a true recovery. And Yellen has put her academic pedigree above the US economy.
Bad businesses were propped up; good ideas for future businesses were prevented from starting.
C’mon Janet, blow up the economy with 3 rate hikes this year….
Keeping interest rates at zero for too long already made the economy into a still birth
No no Mish, you didn’t understand the realm of his statement. ‘Take a hike’ Williams is clearly talking in philosophical terms, of the existential phenomenon faced by a society that is beyond being fully employed . He is acknowledging, for the first time in history, that pouring money into the pockets of citizens was not a great idea and that it is quite a nice time to remind them of that. I don’t suppose he has thought much about what happens afterwards as they will still be beyond full employment, but I’m sure that he will use that as empirical evidence that such low rates were no longer nescessary.
If taken in a full spectrum context, they are successful. They have employed the vast majority of those WILLING to work. And it is not deceit that allows them to claim this success. They KNOW that there are massive numbers not working, and for their designs THAT is a success as well. The fact that so many of these jobs are low wage, forcing many to work more than one job simply to survive, is a success as well, as they too will soon be part of the growing army of nonworking, entitled and dependent class who will be the occupying force that ensures the collectivist, redistributionist government retains control.
Why is it that we pretend that all of what constitutes our world today is an accident, an unintended consequence of both the demons and the saints battling for our “souls”. They want us to believe that our economic woes are the result of nature, of natural cycles in our economy, and further, that only THEY can tame them.They want us to believe that they only represent the solutions, the PROTECTION, but NOT the problem. I believe that ALL of this is by design, and with few exceptions, will continue.
I do not fear economic collapse, a cause for reset and reconsiderations. That would NOT be in their best interest. They intend to set the pot to boiling, but not over the top so that it might put out the fire heating it. Trump is the froth at the pot’s brim, which is WHY they have reacted such as they have. They will continue to try and put a lid on him, and if history is any clue, they probably will be successful.
They tell each and every one of us EXACTLY what it is we EACH need to hear.
The Great Depression saw a huge shift in structural employment from rural agriculture to urban manufacturing/service labour. We are now in the grip of another huge structural shift from human to robotic labour.
Will increasing rates slow down the march of robots? Maybe. But Pandora’s box has already been opened, and I consider it to be unstoppable now.
45 million? That is peanuts compared to the threat robotics poses to the workforce.
I cannot see any solution to this, apart from sledge hammers and crow bars.
The wise frog knows when it is being cooked, and will go in search of a swamp, from where it will sing day and night with others of its kind.
“That would NOT be in their best interest. They intend to set the pot to boiling, but not over the top so that it might put out the fire heating it.”
Doesn’t matter, they’re trapped. Put very simply, a system where money is created through the issuance of debt which does not at the same time create the money to pay the interest on that debt (how could it?) requires continuous debt growth to create the money for interest payments on previous debt. Unfortunately, that generates an exponential debt growth curve. Eventually the slope of that curve becomes unmaintainable at which point bankruptcies eliminates debt, a natural safety valve which resets the slope to a lower value… unless central banks and governments don’t allow that… which, to a large extent, they haven’t for 30 years.
We’re at the end of the debt super-cycle. There’s nothing they can do. There is no way out without huge economic consequences.
Note the debt growth slope reduction due to the GFC… but not nearly enough:
http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/Debt-to-GDP-2-17-2017.jpg
‘How could it?’
They issue new debt without interest (ZIRP), but they are messing with time preferences then, which might only be handled by dictate/rationing/socialism (whichever suits your ideology). Nature of fiat – ‘it shall be done’ – command economy and social engineering… for now the bounds are being tested, those in command can still tweak the framework a bit and point out that there is natural play in the system, but I think eventually either social chaos/revolt because of lack of natural hierarchy, economic failure, or state dictatorship, will be in order. The latter may not look like a dictatorship, people will find decisions made for them simply by being formed into lines of thought and possibility, poverty may not exist, but they will be trapped as there will be no good way to imagine anything other without it being considered a threat to the existing organisation upon which they depend. Maybe that is human destiny, to form an efficient and absolutist unit that is able to conquer and expand… or maybe not, maybe we should appreciate that we are still able to fully consider our predicament, and that we individually still hold the choices. It is even possible that in the larger picture this is the next evolution of human consciousness – understanding fully the place of the individual in the societal whole, not by academic means but by trial and error of will… was never this complicated before though!
Was reminiscing the salaries I enjoyed during 1980’s and 1990’s and income today is nowhere the same per hour. Not to forget that I had long summer holidays due to being a teacher. We had some preparing of the future year and summer courses but otherwise we had plenty of time to enjoy. Nowadays it seems no-one is hired full time and so one struggles during the summer months since they basicly lay you off when the teaching is over and rehire when autumn comes. Nice – for them.
Those days have long passed and everyone I know is struggling with income. Just recently had a word with my brother and talked about how to increase our incomes. There is a constant feeling that when one reaches the retirement, there will be not enough income to survive solely on the pension.
I suppose me and my brother are ‘lucky’ in the sense that both have saved enough for rental properties so maybe we will be okay. Not guaranteed since the property taxes have been hiked every year. In 5 years period there has been 20% increase per annum. If this continues, we’ll be the tenants for the government.
Forgot to add that from rental income you pay 30% tax after deducting the related costs. At the moment, income from property is not a great investment. Buying a new property one can expect 2-3% income per year on capital. Not great and even worse if the tenant destroys the place or something unexpected happens or there is nobody willing to rent.
For these reasons I have bought older houses (not apartments that have service fees etc.) and renovated them myself. I get around 5-7% but that does not count anything for my own work that is hundreds of hours. If hired someone to do the job it would probably mean the similar level gains as from new flats.
Yep. Hike the taxes. We still get some income…
Look at how government works….or doesn’t. Government forces businesses to do their tax collection for them. And Businesses do not profit from this, they actually pay….and sometimes dearly if they screw up in some way.
So yes, you are the government’s property manager. You collect the rents and pay for repairs, but the real profit…the easy money that they must expend NO work to obtain, goes to government.
I have done the same, buying rental properties in hopes that it might sustain me in retirement. The problem is that the government is BROKE and increasingly so, and real estate is an immobile and easy target for taxation. Sure, they will show a little compassion for the home owners, but the landlords….dear no. They will be considered as evil as any capitalist and taxed mercilessly (tax the rich, the greedy landlord) seemingly completely oblivious to the fact that taxes will be passed on to the tenant when possible, and the media will be silent as always, instead creating news stories of poor renters faced with exorbitant rent increases and worsening conditions imposed on them by greedy landlords..
Call me a pessimist.They WILL come for their money, and income taxes alone will not do it. They will have to tax WEALTH, no matter how small, no matter what form.
All property “owners” are just renting from the state governments. If you do not believe that, try not paying your “rent” (property taxes) and see how long it takes for the real landlord to kick you out. Of course some government landlords have higher “rents” than others. This lists the highest property taxes:
http://www.tax-rates.org/taxtables/property-tax-by-state
But you have to take into account that some of those states have no or very low state income tax and they try to make up for that with higher property taxes. The states with high property tax, sales tax and income tax are the WORST:
https://www.thebalance.com/where-you-ll-pay-the-most-in-state-and-local-taxes-3193259
In Texas we get hit pretty hard, but what catches my notice is that we have a “homestead” tax rate versus non primary residence, so I’m fully expecting the gap between the two rates to grow. Landlords are an easy target…always have been
The difference between the best and the worst is 3%… I would worry more about the job market, the weather, and the general asshole quotient of the people around me.
I hope these tough talkers raise rates three more times. And not just these puny 25 point increases. Let’s see some 50 point increases. They think the economy is strong, inflation is roaring and we have full employment. Let them put their money where their mouths are because all they do is talk. They all deserve to be hanging from street lamps like Mussolini. Me? I am betting that they are wrong, dead wrong about everything they believe to be true.
I am not going to defend the fed or central bankers John, but show me when any of them have recently said we now have “roaring inflation”.
Maybe the central banks have reached an endpoint; maybe they have concluded the that ZIRP buyers are now exhausted and they have to raise rates regardless of economic requirements? A ‘he who moves first moves best’ strategy?
I am not sure where everyone who posts here lives, but in Michigan we are at full employment and beyond. There are help wanted signs everywhere and I have numerous ancedotal stories about business’ that are constrained because of lack of labor. It is becoming inflationary. We were just discussing about how people could go to work for the automakers and make good money just working in production. Now the auto co’s start people out at low wages and quite often as a contractor. It takes years to come up to full wages. Even if they make full UAW non skilled production wages, about $25 hr, who can raise a family on that. It used to go a long way. Now because of the fake govt. CPI numbers housing is unaffordable to even a single wage earner making a good wage like this. We may have full employment but nominal good wages have much less purchasing power. Also factor in all the lazy snowflakes, drug users who can’t pass a drug test and the useless SOB”s living off the government and we have a bifurcated economy. Parasites, working poor even if they are making good nominal wages and then those who have skills making a good living. Something
is going to go wrong and it will end badly. I am not sure of the fix. I laugh when Trump says he is the jobs president because we have no one that wants work. He is going to have to use illegal Mexicans as they are the only ones who have a work ethic left.
How much money does Michigan spend a year on entitlements? Has it gone down with your full employment? What is wage inflationary is what the alternatives to work pay, and from what many of us see, even if you could find those WILLING to work, how many of them actually can be productive. Automation has made is easy to stuff warm bodies into slots, but this same automation is also providing employers with better options.
We need more Republicans before we can replace welfare with workfare.
$25/hour is too high for unskilled labor. The world rate is $2/day. Our labor is not better than their labor.
Having a pulse does not give you a right to raise a family.
Worth repeating:
“Having a pulse does not give you a right to raise a family.”
I have relatives in Grand Rapids. I asked my aunt about this “full employment” in Michigan. She said yes, if you want a minimum wage job, there are lots of them on offer. Good jobs, however, are not.
No one want to start at minimum wage it is so degrading. Its better to feed off the taxpayer as a parasite. There are plenty of good paying jobs but it involves showing up passing drug tests and actually working. I worked at plenty of minimum wage jobs knowing it was temporary. No one wants to put in the legwork to work their way up the food chain.
Wow is it ever scary that someone that delusional could actually get into power.
Silicon Valley tech companies are still receiving thousands of applicants per position. Throwing most of them out. Far from “full employment”, there’s an unemployment crisis in the tech sector.
They have to reject applicants as “unqualified” so the can use that as an excuse to hire H1b visa immigrants at a lower wage.
We’ve seen stories for years now where companies like Microsoft lay off thousands while simultaneously lobbying congress for more immigrants.
“thousands of applicants per position”
ha ha very funny, show me your evidence, Mark. I am not the least interested in your opinion.
“Operating above potential” says what exactly? that the bar is so low 48 million can stay on food stamps without hope of a good job? That robots etc have taken over so many jobs yet the economy is sound? That inflation is stable with 10% unemployment [NAIRU figure].
Seriously deluded it would seem. Deflation is just around the corner yet the economy is doing great! He says. Wow.
US money growth?
http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2017/5/5/is-us-money-growth-reviving.html
If you’re going to San Francisco, be sure to wear a flower in your ear. Operating above potential, groovy, man.
LOL. Silicon Valley is the new Laurel Canyon.
“A little beyond full employment”
Let me rephrase that ….
“A little beyond full of Sh**”
If you are beyond potential, you have by definition redefined potential. Potential is like possible. If you’ve done it, it is possible.
What has happened to the output gap (?) and the difference between potential utilization of capital goods and actual utilization? If true, scarcity for labour is not pushing up wages for the first time ever. The economy is limited by the fact that nobody has money to spend, but at the same time working people have no pricing power.
Theoretically, this guy is a looney.
Practically, only a person who never comes outside and meets people could possibly think we are past maximum employment.
“By the way, is it possible to be above potential and above full employment? If so, why is wage growth so anemic?”
Wages for skilled workers are growing in my area. The more skill, the more they are growing. But a lot of our economy is low-skill work: retail, tourism, restaurants and the like.
Central Florida is generally high growth. But businessmen are smart. They would rather slow down than raise pay. Once you hand out pay increases, it is hard to take it back. Slow and steady is the name of the game. We do need to cut welfare to get more labor in the game. That will help keep wages low.
I can only speak for my country, but here, if you have the necessary skills and a proper work ethic then you are employed. It may not always be full-time or your dream job, but you are employed.
Unemployment statistics here are similarly low, as in the US, but no one says they are made up to fool the masses. I have never in my life heard anyone in my country complain about some global conspiracy to keep the masses poor and under control. If anything, people generally believe that politicians are ineffective, or incompetent, not Machiavellian geniuses.
I look at those who do struggle to get by in my country. They typically do not have the skills needed, or the ability to acquire the skills (unfortunately). As in the US, some are challenged, either physically or mentally. There will always be a percentage of the population in this situation. The charity I work for has managed to help improve the skills of a lot of these people, but we cannot raise everyone’s skill level as high as we would like, and we only have the resources to help small numbers at any given time. Still, we do what we can.
I truly believe that the big problem that has been identified by many others on Mish’s blog is that many jobs that used to pay a lot, now pay much less. And that some jobs no longer exist. This is not a global conspiracy. It is simply the result of competition and automation, and it has been going on for the last hundred years, and it isn’t going to stop.
If you own a business, you are competing against similar businesses. You will take advantage of whatever you can to improve your business. Good old human ingenuity. If the competition automates something, then you do as well, in order to compete. If a new competitor opens up, and pays lower wages, then you figure out a way to lower your wages. This is the “free market capitalism” that so many here seem to believe in. Until it affects them personally.
If you think that Trump is going to open up the coal mines, and fire up the old steel Mills and outdated factories, and give everyone back their high paying jobs from 50 years ago, then you are going to be disappointed. Sadly, politicians lie to the people to get elected. Worse still, the voters want to believe the politicians lies.
But once in power, the politician cannot turn back the clock. They cannot fight market forces. If they try to fight market forces, they will only make things worse, causing more businesses to fail.
Sorry, but the answer is to embrace the future, not fight it. It’s been like that for a hundred years, and it’s not going to change. Encourage your children to get the skills they need. Encourage your businesses to invest in the technology that will give them the competitive edge. That’s how everyone wins.
Best Regards
what country are you from or referring to?
I live in a democratic, industrialized country much like the US. It doesn’t really matter which one. I prefer not to say for purposes of anonymity.
The point, is that free market forces are not something that can be stopped. And the typical worker will sometimes get run over.
By way of example, I have worked with hundreds of men and women, over the age of 50, who have lost their “good job”, typically because of these market forces, whether it be the business closed because it could no longer compete, or it automated in order to compete. The story is almost always the same. They were hoping to make it to retirement at their good job and prayed they would never have to learn about computers or any other technology.
Yet here they are now, trying to acquire the skills that they have avoided all their lives. Many never finished high school. They have never touched a computer keyboard, mouse, or touch screen. They don’t have an email address. And so on.
I’m sure that it is similar in the US.
We try to work with these people to help them acquire more of these skills so they can become employable again, but it isn’t easy for them.
The vast majority of them realize that they will probably not be able to get as good a job as they had before. But I don’t see them complaining about the global conspiracy which screwed them over on purpose. In general, they are very thankful that they have found a free service that will help them get some of the skills they need.
As I say, market forces are unstoppable. 100 years ago, 80% of people worked on farms. Today it is 2%. 50 years ago, 40% of people worked in factories. Today it is 20% and falling fast. New jobs are created faster than old jobs are destroyed. The good new jobs require the highest skill levels. The workers who are displaced, are the casualties of these market forces.
I’m not saying it’s right. I’m just saying, this is the reality. The winners will be those countries and people who embrace it, rather than fight it.
I get it creative destruction. In the US we are at full employment but also have a fair amount of people who could work but will not because of govt freebees.
“The vast majority of them realize that they will probably not be able to get as good a job as they had before. But I don’t see them complaining about the global conspiracy which screwed them over on purpose.”
So, they are uninformed. How handy for the people who are running things.
BTW, I hardly see that revealing what COUNTRY you are talking about would be a great sacrifice of privacy. It’s more likely that you know that if you do, we could easily point out that the scenario you are painting is a false one.
That’s so reasonable, and therefore not at all fun for the elderly right wing lunatics that mostly populate Mish’s forum, screaming about snowflakes and welfare queens and whatever other bogeymen top the right-wing hate fantasy list of the week.
I like Mish’s blog because Mish has some really useful insights. He does a lot of good work, and I appreciate it, even when I occasionally disagree with his point of view (I agree with the vast majority of his opinions). I also enjoy many of the posts from some very insightful people. Sadly there are a few posters who are “way out there” (I can’t tell if they are left or right, nor do I care). I tend to ignore them if I can. I am neither left or right. I am a pragmatist. A realist. I deal with reality every day, and I try to help others deal with reality. Anything else is a waste of my time.
By the way, thanks for the compliment Phil!
Yes, what an utterly reasonable description of the destruction of large portions of society. How soothing. I’m glad it doesn’t upset the two of you that it’s happening, and that you’ve found an agreeable way to think about it. That’s so nice. The people who are profiting from this appreciate your unpaid propaganda, I’m sure.
You are entitled to your beliefs, no matter how ridiculous they are. I imagine you also feel entitled to a well paying job, even if you don’t have the skills to perform it.
I can’t change market forces, but I can try to help people gain the skills needed to to get a job. This is the reality I live in.
You can live in your fantasy world, but that won’t help anyone.
Heh heh heh…it’s the Labour Laffer Curve.
Cutting wages actually increases employment since you work twice as hard to get nowhere.
It’s counter intuitive.
What’s the Real Unemployment Rate in the U.S.?
June 16, 2015
“By my reckoning, roughly 60% of the civilian work force is fully employed and 40% are marginally employed or unemployed.”
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune15/real-unemployment6-15.html
Work is voluntary. People will only work if they feel it is in their self-interest. I work because I make a very good income and enjoy my job. But I could live without a job. In my family, not including retired parents, we have 5 working adults and 5 non-working. Everyone lives quite well.
If someone told me that I had to stand on a factory line all day for $12.00/hr with lousy health insurance and a stupid 401k, you’d find me fishing on my boat or on the golf course. But, to each his own.
We need a real war to reach full employment, only health care is fully employed now, I see the yard signs everywhere “Earn $11/hr as home health aid, must have car”
William Sands is correct. There is full employment. The problem is that we have change the definition of the term. If you redefine the parameters then it fits what he is saying. Just like they have redefined the terms of inflation or growth. Language is power and those who control the language control the discussion. Thus we are now at full employment so rejoice.
‘Language is power and those who control the language control the discussion.’
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Thank you, that is exactly correct.
Instead of debating fraudulent govt stats, which will always be tortured for the benefit of govt and their lackey’s, why not actually do something to combat the ills destroying this country? For several years I have asked you to promote the 5-STEPS listed below (details found at TwistedLittleThings). Additional steps are welcome, but unless people actually do something instead of just writing and talking about the problems, nothing will change. Govt’s patience is infinite when they need to reform. Without actions by citizens, our country will absolutely crash and burn before change occurs.
FIVE (5) STEPS TO TAKE BACK OUR COUNTRY
STEP 1: Force Term Limits – VOTE INCUMBENTS OUT, EVERY ELECTION. Note: incumbent includes ANYONE that has ever held political office in the past (i.e. chameleons like Charlie Christ).
STEP 2: Force Banking Reform – TRANSFER ASSETS OUT OF BANKSTER BANKS (US syndicate members include: BofA, JP Morgan Chase, CITI, WELLS FARGO, GOLDMAN SACHS).
STEP 3: Force Truth in Media – TURN OFF ALL MAINSTREAM MEDIA, AND REPLACE IT WITH AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT SOURCE.
STEP 4: Force Agriculture and Healthcare Reform – EAT AND DEMAND HEALTHY FOODS (basically, do the oposite recommended by the FDA).
STEP 5: Never Let Them Take Your Guns – this includes attempts to reduce your capability to defend yourself, when compared to the capabilities of criminals (especially those in govt).
Wait, what? I was told Obama took everyone’s guns.
You were correctly told Obama wants to take every ones guns.
We are not at full employment but maybe we are at full entitlement. There are job openings but few that can pass a drug screen and show up everyday.
It is difficult to find workers but the reason is that it is easy to do nothing. I have interviewed people that have not worked in years. Healthy males of working age that can get by on handouts.So why take a job? What a waste!
Those we hire have a real problem with attendance. Actually showing up is the biggest contributor to success and about half of workers can’t do that.
“I have interviewed people that have not worked in years. Healthy males of working age that can get by on handouts.”
Ever consider that jobs simply didn’t exist for these healthy males, so they were forced to live on handouts? And now they’re trying to find jobs?
The whole narrative that some people are casting, that people who don’t work right now, don’t want to work, is absolutely disgusting.
that’s interesting. We just put a ad up for a receptionist at $11/hr who also needed experience, social media skills, ability to create quotes, track environmental agencies, plus no benefits.
Inland Empire Calif.
pulled the ad after 3 hours because we recieved 250 resumes
I DO NOT believe these outlandish stories of “200 Resumes”, “500 Resumes”, STEM graduates (and those who graduate with a regular CS degree that can act, dress and communicate professionally since acting like a Thug regardless of race won’t get you into a white collar middle – upper middle class job) NOT being able to find jobs..
ETC. many jobs advertised on Indeed let you apply directly thru indeed. On the bottom next to Apply now button it shows how many people have already applied for said job. Checking some mid level financial analyst roles posted in the past 3 – 5 days it ranged from 0 – a total of 5 people have already applied.
‘By the way, is it possible to be above potential and above full employment? If so, why is wage growth so anemic?’
Because the numbers are a sham.
“The US is the economy is so good it’s beyond full employment and above potential says John Williams…”
What was 1st quarter GDP, again? That was above potential? What is potential? Zero?
Mish someone may have already mentioned this that in Saturday’s WSJ Macroeconomic Advisors is projecting second quarter economic growth at 4%.
4% may be too low. I predict in the upper 5%’s and fourth quarter of 2017 can easily see the GDP in the 6%’s.. Remember back in 1994 & 1995 the term “soft landing’ was thrown around alot. In 2018 rate hikes will likely be 50BPS 3 times probably thru 2020.
Consumer spending, employment & wage growth for mid – high skilled jobs show no sign (none at all of slowing down).
House prices & rents in the NYC metropolitan, Tri state area & New England have been rising at double digit percentage rates and realtors report they have ‘waiting lists’ of would be buyers but no inventory
See, America is now great and we have the numbers to prove it. This is as good as it can get people. 🙂 Now if things can’t get any much better than this we’re in trouble. 🙁
Nonsensical headlines like “A little beyond full employment”; overzealous headlines like 60-80% of CEO’s want to merge or acquire; or relatively inaccurate statements like the housing market doesn’t have enough supply, all are gems of contrarian indicators.
It doesn’t have enough supply especially in the Boston area.. Even mommy & daddy of all these college kids in the Boston area are spending outlandish amounts of money on buying a 2nd (or 3rd) HOME for their kid in Brookline & Newton instead of having their snowflakes have to rough it in any remaining cheap (meaning hood) area
Technology enables corporations to benefit from doing more with less. Companies no longer have secretaries, except for the top execs, and they are more call-screeners and nonsense avoiders. Drive-up windows served more customers quicker, and no clean-up. Some restaurants have i{Pads for the customers to place their own orders. Little by little, the digital age has reduced the need for labor–at least the old style.
The value of education is that–if you wish–it can prepare students for the careers of the future–not the past. Just waiting to get out of high school, and replace dad at the local plant, doesn’t cut it anymore. Students, parents, teachers–Industry and Government too–need to forecast where the jobs of the future will be, and then create programs to prepare today’s students for them. Internships!
Just read “Hillbilly Elegy”, by J. D. Vance. He grew-up in Southern Ohio, where hillbilly’s from Appalachia went post-WWII, to work in the steel mills. They didn’t push their kids toward education, and they’re all sitting home, just waiting for those mills to return.
It’s up to every one of us to re-invent ourselves throughout our career. Given changes in laws, types of products and services, mergers of companies, I had to re-invent myself time and again–in the securities business. If you need to take a course or two, do so, the same thing for other job skills. Perhaps become an entrepreneur!
If you expect the jobs to come to you, or let your kids think the same way, you’ll just drop out of the Unemployed-but looking, to the Unemployed-No longer looking category. That means, you are no longer in the labor force, and it makes Donald’s statistics look even better.