Judging from the political reaction to Emanuel Macron’s French election victory, one might be wondering if Macron is the anti-Trump or if this is the Second Coming.
Eurointelligence Explains
Emmanuel Macron was elected with 66.06% over 33.94% for Marine Le Pen, according to the latest figures. With Macron, the French chose the anti-Trump: a young, pro-European reformer, who never held elected office before. Macron proved the impossible, and this in itself is inspiring. The message is one of hope and optimism, a Barack Obama moment for France.
What about abstentions? Jean-Luc Mélenchon said last night that Le Pen de facto came in third, after Macron and those who chose the ni-ni, neither-nor. Looking at the numbers, a record high 11m who voted for Le Pen. There were 4.2million who went and voted blank, another record. Abstention was strong too with 26%. Mélenchon now counts on winning a majority in the legislative elections. Mélenchon is not the only opponent of Macron’s new movement, there is François Baroin with the Republicans, and of course the Front National.
Looking at the profile of the voters according to the Ipsos internet poll of over 4800 people between May 4 and 6, there are a couple of observations worth making:
- A majority of Mélenchon voters (52%) did vote for Macron in the end rather than abstain (17%); Among those who voted for Fillon in the first round, there were still 20% who chose Le Pen.
- Looking at the age profile, Macron received most votes from those 60 or older (over 70%) and the least from those aged 35-49 (57%).
- Those who considered themselves to find it very difficult to live with their income voted for Le Pen (69%), those who find it difficult or easy Macron (61% and 79% respectively).
- The poll also shows that a majority (61%) does not want Macron to win a majority in the legislative elections.
- Among the reasons of why they voted for Macron, 41% said to prevent Le Pen, a third voted for the political renewal that he represents, 16% for his program and 8% for his personality.
- Those who abstain, 31% reject both candidates, 28% don’t find themselves in their ideas and 16% consider their vote does not change the fact that Macron was winning.
A mere 16% voted for Macron because of his program while 41% voted for Macron just to prevent a Le Pen, and 26% abstained.
Macron may have been an “anti-trump” candidate but so would have Francios Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and my great grandmother long since passed away.
Macron my be an “anti-Trump” candidate but he is hardly the “anti-Trump”.
Finally, this is no Second Coming, nor is this a “Barrack Obama moment for France” except perhaps in the Obamacare sense.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
This is the French Tony Blair. Little or no real world experience, power for powers sake, centrist populist policies formed via think tanks, no real action when in charge, no difficult decisions or substantive reforms.
France will sleep walk the next 5 years and Le Pen and Melenchon or similar will be back then.
” …no difficult decisions or substantive reforms.”
He may as well be Trudeau in Canada.
Mish,
a) If Macron doesn’t deliver, either,
i) there will be a future French Trump just as Trump was a reaction to Obama,
ii) The EU will succeed is digesting France so it remains in name only with all major policy controls in Brussels and any French leader a token only like the Queen in the UK.
Look at how many people that ran in Round 1 that were anti-Maastrict treaty. Quite suprising. EU breathing a sign of relief.
The EU will now rush to integrate with Renzi back in charge of his party. Come the next French election you want recognise France or the EU.
What Macron and others dont seem to realise is the more control Brussels takes the weaker the nation states become as they lose experience in managing themselves. This weakening accounts for Renzi (next to useless) and Hollande (the same). Neither were able to drive their countries forward.
Such “leader uselessness” over time will spread so each nation can only look to Brussels on nearly every major matter. Italy, Greece, France as just current examples. It will spread.
Remember Junkers speech on “more is less”?
To every action there is an equal an opposite reaction but it’s probably too late for France by 2022. Digested by the giant Venus Fly Trap.
Macron is the French Hillary Clinton don’t you think Fish?
I dont know what he is but unless he has hidden depths he comes across as an older snowflake type. All things to all people and nothing to anyone.
Confession – I am not the best judge in the world in such matters.
I picture Macron as Merkel’s pool boy. He will just buckle to status quo.
Well 15-year old Macron was his 40 year old teacher’s boyfriend, so…
Well said. One of the best analyses around.
Le Pen went dancing while Macron studied the Mon Lisa in the Louvre. She was dancing on the grave of the PS and LR. She may have lost but she thinks she has won in 2022. Concentrate on four essential elements in her message: nationalism, anti-Euro, anti-Islam, and socialism. Render the “fascist” charge irrelevent.
Note the difference.
She lost, she danced.
US liberal left lost, they riotted a day still both now. Same after the Brexit vote.
Should read they lost, they riotted and still bitching now.
Viva la difference!!!!
After the initial euphoria, I think Macron will fizzle and burn just like Holland did when he entered the office.
The problem with France is that they are too Socialists at heart whereas Western societies cannot afford socialism anymore.
No doubt a victory for the Central Bankers – at least for now.
In the thirties in America there existed a popular phrase, “Let George do it.” George, of course, was the mythical individual whether he was a relative, friend, fellow employee, or government worker. Of course George never did anything until WWII and the corp of engineers adopted the phrase as their slogan and became “George”. The point is that we
invent mythical entities that sum up our ignorance and intransigence. Let the company pay higher wages, it makes lots of money. Let the City take cares of it, we pay enough taxes. And the ultimate, let Uncle Sam pay for it, he has unlimited funds. In essence, Macron’s cry is let the EU do it, they can turn the economy around. The ECB has plenty of money, doesn’t it? If we treat the refugees and Islamist nicely they will be nice to us. It is human nature to indulge in such lies and still keep a straight face.
Looking at the voter statistics, only 40% of France actually cast their ballots for Macron. But a closer look, as Mish has shown is that about half those ballots were not cast for macron but against Le Pen. Are we to believe as some have declared so blase a manner that Macron’s party will pick up the necessary majority from the other parties to keep Le Pen and the FN from any sort of political power? If the national mood is anti transfer of more power to the EU, if it is anti more inflows of immigrants/refugees, if it wants more nationalism and less globalism, more France First, then Macron will have serious problems during his five years. And while as president he may not be investigated officially for tax evasion, there will be enough scandal to cause his resignation for fraud. Unfortunately, the French love their socialism because they believe the deep pockets belong to “George”. They have not understood that they are collectively “George” anymore than the average American liberal progressive. They may like their socialism but eventually they cannot keep it. Already they are seeing how costly refugees have become upon the social and economic resources of France. The facade of cradle to grave socialism is cracking wide open and has become an ugly sight to behold. Even a young pretty boy can’t distract the public from that sight.
EUObserver comments – worth reading.
“Noting that 10 out of the 11 candidates in the first round of the election’s first round had opposed the Maastricht treaty in 1992 or the EU constitution in 2005, De Marcilly said that “Brussels was relieved to see that with Macron, there was still a candidate with a real European inspiration”.”
He wants to cut tax, deficit will increase as UK business also reduces.
“France already had three extensions of the deadline to comply with EU deficit targets and it would be “complicated to arrive and ask for a fourth extension”, he said.”
He is naive as the below leads to finally Zero sovereignty and an inability to govern a country in the EU or develop leaders able to govern. See Italy, see Greece, soon see France.
“For Macron, “the EU allows us to be more powerful. It is about sharing sovereignty to gain more sovereignty at a higher level, which is logical if you put things into perspective.”
In accordance with that view, De Marcilly added, Macron is more didactic about the sharing of powers in the EU.
He takes the time to explain that powers can be at a local, national, but also European level.
He has made clear that the EU “is not about abandoning sovereignty but that it is something you have to share, and that it justifies a European approach” to policies.”
https://euobserver.com/beyond-brussels/137811
Yes, well, by that logic the marie of my village shares as much power as does the regional government and it shares as much power as the president who in turn shares as much power as the troka of the EU. Right, sure, it could happen. “Looks like we’re surrounded by Indians, Tonto.” “What’s this “we”, white man?” It’s no accident that France makes a number of the stinkiest cheeses known to mankind.
Macron does not have a political party with which to implement his views. The parliamentary elections are the only route he can take to form any kind of administration that can implement policy. He does not have the infrastructure to a) elect deputies or b) to form a cabiet.
The headline news that needs to be seen over the next month prior to elections is “XXXX senior politician defects to En Marche” (is En Marche the name of his party or should it be papier mache for party formed of a straw man?)
It is clear that turnout was the lowest in more than 40 years. Almost one-third of voters chose neither Macron nor Le Pen, with 12 million abstaining and 4.2 million spoiling ballot papers.
Here are what I think are ten key policies in Macron’s manifesto and which he currently has no political machine to implement.
Macron policies:
1. Local housing tax exemptions worth 10 billion euros ($10.6 billion), reimbursement of the full cost of cultural shows, dentures and hearing aids, and cuts in social welfare levies for low earners coupled with tax breaks for their employers.
2. Merger of myriad public- and private-sector retirement pension systems as well as a merger of unemployment benefit systems, which currently differ for regular wage-earners and the self-employed.
3.Keeping France’s budget deficit below the EU-mandated 3 percent of GDP, lowering the jobless rate to 7 percent by the end of his potential five-year term from around 10 percent now, an investment plan of 50 billion euros and public spending savings seen reaching 60 billion annually by the end of the mandate.
4. Corporate tax would be cut from 33 to 25 percent.
5. A target of 60 billion euros for savings on spending is so far more of a projection than a plan, premised on 10 billion euros of unemployment benefit savings generated by a drop in the jobless rate to 7 percent.
6. 25 billion is predicted to come from public service modernisation, of which a small part would come from payroll cost falls due to a 120,000 cut in headcount, of which 50,000 will be in the central civil service.
7. 18-year-olds to get a 500 euro “culture pass” to spend on cinema, theatre and concert tickets.
8. Build 15,000 extra prison places, hire 10,000 police, raise defence budget to 2 percent of GDP, from just under 1.8 percent in 2016. Introduction of on-the-spot fines for drug use and issue orders banning gang-leaders from certain neighbourhoods.
9. Reduce number of lawmakers by a third in both the Senate and National Assembly. Reduce by at least a quarter the number of provincial local authorities. Ban hiring of family-members as assistants of lawmakers.
10. 50 billion euros of public investment over five years.
Joke? “Ban hiring of family-members as assistants of lawmakers”
Doesn’t he want a formal state role for his wife? On payroll?
What about the deficit?
Suppose EU will turn a blind eye to deficits targets, again?
Well, he’s ambitious.
Only the French could elect someone to correct the worst excesses of libtard socialism by electing a libtard socialist without a political infastructure to implement his policies. Politics 101 = fail.
There can be no positive outcome from this election, unless there are mass defections. The only expereince he will attract is from fringe dwellers in other parties, looking for a fast euro.
Socialism has been so engrained in French politics for so long that only a debt crisis will force the French to consider financial, moral and ethical bankruptcy that they are already living in. As with other western democracies, the worst has laready happened – unsustainable levels of debt to pay for socialist promises that can’t be kept.
“Only the French could elect someone to correct the worst excesses of libtard socialism by electing a libtard socialist without a political infastructure to implement his policies.”
Such stupidity is not exclusive to the French – not even close.
“It is clear that turnout was the lowest in more than 40 years. Almost one-third of voters chose neither Macron nor Le Pen, with 12 million abstaining and 4.2 million spoiling ballot papers.”
“None of the Above” should be on every ballot everywhere.
“18-year-olds to get a 500 euro “culture pass” to spend on cinema, theatre and concert tickets.”
A clear example of bribing a group of particularly naive voters.
“The state – or, to make the matter more concrete, the government – consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can’t get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods.” – H. L. Mencken
I suspect “real” France is lost already no matter how it might benefit from Brexit.
It’s people poorly represented by a youngster amongst the Wolves of Brussels.
Anyone who married his junior high school literature teacher 25 years his senior is definately not a Alpha male
When someone like “Boy George” has his gaydar register a hit, the choice of wife was pragmatic, not romantic.
Day 2 and the geriatric right wingers are still crying about it. Hilarious. Can’t wait for the tears in 2018 and 2020, it will be epic.
What IS the difference between Right and Left?
From what I observed, Obama was the 3rd and 4th term of W.
There is no Right and Left.
There IS the Haves and Have Nots.
The steamrolling of the Have Nots will continue no matter who’s in office.
You are largely right.
In the endless Come-along of the tightening police state, they merely switch roles from the Pawl to the ratchet.
“Day 2 and the geriatric right wingers are still crying about it. Hilarious. Can’t wait for the tears in 2018 and 2020, it will be epic.”
Just who is crying Phil? Cassandra? The coming tears in France in 2018 and 2020 will be epic. I don’t think you will find it hilarious.
Phil – if you believe the nationalist/populist movement is finished, then you are kidding yourself. Conditions in FR & EU will worsen and the nationalists will only gain momentum…
Winning elections like this one (FR) is a trap… the winner assumes all of the problems w/ virtually zero ability to address/fix any of them. the loser spends the next 5 years campaigning & saying “told you so”.
Hardly hilarious.
Don’t like the term popularism as its a very blunt catchall.
However, peak in such is not past. Lets not count chickens.
When all hope is exhausted and the middle masses understand their plight, then peak will come. When they realise they have been fooled into surrendering basic rights and controls of a sovereign people, then it hits the fan and some charismatic, not very pleasant, leader will rise and cause untold misery and mayhem lashing out at whomever they think responsible.
A little instability, regularly, can avoid massively instability later.
Naseem Taleb may have said that in so many words. Macron is, perhaps, a bit of stability too far.
In the ‘Alice in Wonderland’ world of the EU, Macron’s win may seem to be a victory for the EU. The reality is that France is an economic basket case and some kind of stability and right wing measures are needed if it is not to be another Italy. Le Pen was too extreme in her support for the nanny state and France cannot afford her policies.
Macron said in one speech that the EU must be reformed. Time will tel if that was a sop to prevent the EU disillusioned voting for Le Pen. That is of course if he is able to muster sufficient candidates in the upcoming elections so he can get a PM of his choosing or whether he has to compromise.
Can France afford a compromise?
Now that Macron is in office, look for the investigation into his offshore accounts and tax evasion to gain momentum. What effect this has is yet to be seen. Worst case he is forced to resign and we get another round of elections. Remember, he has no actual party apparatus, the major parties which got shut out of the second round of elections will be gunning for him.
The string pullers prefer / demand office holders with skeletons in the closet … easier to control.
“The string pullers prefer / demand / or CREATE office holders with skeletons in the closet”
France is toast.
Please note: message attached
“Macron proved the impossible, and this in itself is inspiring. The message is one of hope and optimism, a Barack Obama moment for France.”
Hope and change was an Epic Fail.
Yes, hilarious! “The message is one of hope and optimism, a Barack Obama moment for France.” Like Barry, the message is the triumph of hope over experience.
Macron’s Empty Victory
May 8, 2017
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/macrons-empty-victory/
Excerpts:
Perhaps the most striking thing about Macron’s landslide win is how little genuine enthusiasm there is for him or his agenda. He won one of the most lopsided presidential victories in modern French history, but it was in many respects an empty one. The election also saw relatively low turnout, a rate of abstention higher than in almost fifty years, and a huge number of blank or spoiled ballots. This was an electorate that grudgingly accepted Macron as the less awful of two options, but there doesn’t seem to be much confidence in him despite the gaudy final result.
“Macron’s constituency is very weak,” warns Philippe Marlière, a professor of French politics at University College London, “and it’s also by default. If you can’t rally people around yourself because of your policies and program, but only because you’re not Le Pen, you’re weak.”
Millman mentions Macron’s likely lack of a parliamentary majority after the legislative elections in June. That will make it difficult if not impossible for him to govern. Even if he avoids the dreaded cohabitation with a government of a different party, his “centrist” positioning opens him to attacks from both sides of the spectrum and leaves him with few reliable allies. I would add that it was his preferred reforms as economy minister a few years ago that contributed to the unpopularity of Hollande and the Socialists, so he is likely to encounter stiff resistance in any case. There is no reason to think that French voters are clamoring for a so-called “Third Way” agenda, and if Macron mistakes his victory as an invitation to pursue an agenda like that he may find himself isolated very quickly.
What would anyone expect from a large population in a country living on entitlements?
Isn’t it ironic that while Macron has the overwhelming mandate of the electorate
that the unions (the majority of whom must have voted for him)
have wasted no time getting back to what they do best
“Watch Live French Activists, Unions Clash With Riot Police In First Anti-Macron Protest”
things never seem to change in France.
plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.
Macron is a puppet, like Obama, and his performance in office will disappoint, like Obama’s.
See you all after five more years of EU terrorism, unemployment & austerity. Le Pen & other nationalists will be running practically un-opposed.
Macron is nothing but a figurehead. Brussels is still running the show. New boss, same as the old boss.
The grand EU dog and pony show will continue for a long time.
They might bend to Macron to a degree if ony to be seen to support him.
If he asks them to bend too far, cut back, live within their means,pass ore powers back to the nation states, he’ll soon realise who is in charge.
Hi, Mish would you care to comment: > Market Ignores The Largest Bankruptcy In U.S. History > > May 5, 2017 3:50 PM ET| Includes: COF , QQQ , SBOW , SPY , VXX > > The Frugal Prof > Deep value, contrarian, medium-term horizon > > (786 followers) > Summary > > Debt and valuations matter. Fear at historic lows as the largest bankruptcy happens. > > The lessons of Puerto Rico – debt and demographics. > > Valuations, stocks market levels and complacency matter. > > Thesis: Puerto Rico files for the largest bankruptcy in US history. A warning of potential problems for the US. For the stock market, we have fear near historic lows. And debt levels for the consumer and the federal government are at historic highs. > > > The news: > > Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy. > > Puerto Rico announced a historic restructuring of its public debt on Wednesday, touching off what may be the biggest bankruptcy ever in the $3.8 trillion U.S. municipal bond market. > > > Puerto Rico’s $70 billion of debt is sure to dwarf Detroit’s insolvency in 2013. > A warning sign: > > NY Times: > a warning sign for many American states and municipalities – such as Illinois and Philadelphia – that are facing some of the same strains, including rising pension costs, crumbling infrastructure, departing taxpayers and credit downgrades that make it more expensive to raise money. > The bankruptcy is not complicated: Large debt and an aging population plagued Puerto Rico. And as we can see, the United States mainland is about to face a similar scenario. > > US Demographics: > > More than 65 million Boomers who will turn 70 in the next two decades. > > The 70- to 79-year-old age group will increase by more than 50% during the next 10 years and by more than 80% by 2035. > > > The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to more than doub
So France has replaced President Bilko with a former banker, President Moron! ‘Bon chance mes amis!’ I hope he doesn’t turn out like other establishment superheroes like Tony Blair who was useless, or Super-superhero Barak Obama who’s sad legacy is Donald Trump and was in every other respect UTTERLY useless. Vive!
Another link for you charles, gives an overview of leaked material doing the rounds:
http://lesobservateurs.ch/2017/05/08/macronleaks-les-documents-reveles-par-wikileals-sur-macron-et-son-equipe-les-bonnes-feuilles/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Once Merkel is elected expect full-on Union of tax and spend.
They dare not discuss it yet.
Once free to drive Merkel and Macron will rush to get the job done.
The opposition is too fragmented to stop it.
AfD, useless, LePen back in her box etc.
Germans have no voice outside the pro big Europe people and the smaller countries go along for the ride.
By 2022 it will be done and LePen will be too late.
One big United tax and spend authority, else the Euro and EU stagnated to death.
If it stands still, it dies.