I expected the GDPNow forecast today to take another dive today from the last estimate due to generally poor economic reports during the interim period.

Instead, the model stayed flat at 3.6%. That means the model expected generally poor reports.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — May 12, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.6 percent on May 12, unchanged from May 9. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending inched up from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent after this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecast for second-quarter real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to -0.4 percent following the Monthly Treasury Statement issued yesterday by the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service.

Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — May 12, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2017:Q2.
  • Small positive news from retail sales data and price indexes increased the nowcast for Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.

The dive in the GDP models has been temporarily postponed. It will resume shortly.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock