The EU now faces the shocking discovery that the UK is not Greece, the EU does not hold all the cards, and the UK is able and willing to simply walk away from ever-escalating EU demands.
Bloomberg reports U.K. Threatens to Quit Brexit Talks If It Faces Massive Bill.
The U.K. will quit Brexit talks unless the European Union drops its demands of a divorce payment of 100 billion euros ($112 billion), Brexit Secretary David Davis said.
Britain’s negotiations on leaving the EU would otherwise be plunged into “chaos,” and even a 1 billion-pound settlement would be “a lot of money,” Davis said in an interview published in the Sunday Times.
The size of Britain’s exit bill, and which types of negotiations can begin before it has been agreed, has been a source of debate for weeks.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said the U.K. will have to pay about 50 billion pounds, while Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Xavier Bettel has signaled a figure between 40 billion euros and 60 billion euros. The Financial Times estimated the cost could balloon to 100 billion euros, while a study by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales put the cost at as little as 5 billion pounds ($6.5 billion).
“We don’t need to just look like we can walk away, we need to be able to walk away,” Davis said. “Under the circumstances, if that was necessary, we would be in a position to do it.”
Brexit Talks Could Collapse Over UK Divorce Bill
The Guardian reports Brexit talks could collapse over UK divorce bill, says EU negotiator
The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, fears the refusal of member states to soften their demands over the size of Britain’s “divorce bill” could lead to a collapse in talks and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal, minutes of a meeting of the European commission reveal.
Barnier has told the commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and other senior officials that the stakes are so high because Berlin and Paris are refusing to pay more to cover the UK’s departure, while those governments who receive the most from EU funds are opposed to any cuts in spending.
“Mr. Barnier considered that this issue would doubtless be one of the most difficult in the negotiation,” the minutes of a top-level meeting held earlier this month note.
“However, should there be no agreement on this point, he believed that the risk of failing to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom would become real, since none of the 27 member states wished to contribute more to the current multi-annual financial framework or receive less in projects financed under the framework.”
As positions have hardened on the continent, with estimates of the size of the bill now reaching as much as €100bn, Juncker noted that Theresa May appeared to be softening up the British public for failure to strike a deal.
EU is Shocked, Shocked by the UK’s Stance on Brexit
Eurointelligence confirms things I stated long ago: The UK is able and willing to walk away, the UK is not Greece, and the EU nannycrats still have not figured this out.
Via email from Eurointelligence.
EU is Shocked, Shocked by the UK’s Stance on Brexit
We have argued for some time that the main risk to the entire Brexit process is a source of cognitive dissonance on the part of the EU, which has a long history of misjudging UK politics. [Mish comment: Actually Eurointelligence has repeated numerous times it expects a deal.]
The Guardian [above story] has a wonderful story about a memo detailing a Commission meeting that includes an exchange between Michel Barnier and Jean-Claude Juncker. Barnier said he detected a growing readiness by the UK to pull out without a deal – something they both seem to have discounted before. And Barnier makes another important point: the reason why the Brexit bill has become such a serious issue is related to internal EU politics: Germany and France are steadfastly refusing to put any new money into the EU’s budget, while the net recipient member states will not accept lower disbursements. This is why the Brexit bill has been ratcheted up.
[Commenting on the Guardian article, Eurointelligence continued]
We find this story very revealing. We recall that people laughed at Theresa May’s Brexit-means-Brexit pledge, only to find out later that it was an accurate, albeit incomplete, pledge. We feel the same goes for the “better-no-deal-than-a-bad-deal” pledge. They really mean it, and the EU is right to factor this into their own negotiating stance. There is a history of misjudgment: the EU did not see the Brexit referendum coming. It did not factor in any probability of a Leave vote. After the referendum, many bought into the “Bregret” hopes, only to find out that British politics is not going to make that happen. And now they are surprised that the UK is willing to pull the plug on an Article 50 agreement. It is not hard to see a pattern here.
The EU is now finding out that the Brexit negotiations are going to be different from the talks with Greece in 2015. The European Council then took the view, correctly as it turned out, that Alexis Tsipras would not have the stamina to pull the plug. The UK government is better prepared for Brexit partly because it is not doing much else these days, while the EU has a few other issues to deal with, and because it has concluded that a credible no-deal threat is the only tool it has to equalize the negotiating position.
Deal or No Deal?
Eurointelligence is discovering that its repeated expectations for a deal may vanish into smoke.
As I said all along, a deal is only possible if the UK shows a willingness to walk away and does so immediately. We may be hitting that phase now.
The second problem is 26 nations all have to agree to the terms. Even if we are at the point the UK is finally willing to tell the EU to go to hell, we are not at the point that 26 EU nations understand the implications.
Finally, if and when 26 nations do grasp reality, will the desire to punish the UK overrule common sense?
Mission Impossible
I am not saying a deal is impossible. But if there is a deal, the EU will have to give a lot, and all 26 members will have to approve it.
The irony of the setup is the firmer the UK is and the more forcibly it stresses willingness to walk away, the more likely a deal takes place. But if so, it will be the EU, not the UK that backs down from the most demands.
As I have stated all along: the EU does not have the upper hand. The UK can shut off fishing rights, lower corporate taxes, pay zero for a divorce fee, and stop all payments of any kind to the EU. Should WTO rules automatically apply, the EU exporters will get hit much harder than UK exporters.
From a practical standpoint, the only thing the EU can do is make enough demands such that the UK walks. That is not a position of power and as I predicted it was a very poor negotiating tactic.
If the UK does walk, it will be much harder on the EU than the UK. So much for the ballyhooed “art of the deal” and preposterous demands that cannot be accepted.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Freedom. It’s what’s for dinner.
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Why would the UK be obligated to pay anything? Just walk away.
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Touche!
The UK don’t need NO STINKING EU!
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All the more so when the UK holds the cards in this situation. The EU cannot survive without the UK’s markets.
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exactly. UK holds ALL the cards… EU too arrogant to recognize facts. comedy or tragedy?
or both?
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So EU membership is a liability not an asset.
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Mr Druncker and Mr Barmier. Let’s at least get their names right.
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How much should the EU pay the UK, to stop the UK from closing trade deals with individual EU members, by passing Brussels entirely?
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it is illegal for an EU country to negotiate trade deals directly. I agree though that the EU has received around half a trillion euros from the UK since 1973
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Illegal according to who?
And what can the EU going to do about it if Germany does a trade deal in spite of Brussels? Eject their largest benefactor?
Even if negotiating as a sovereign state were somehow “illegal” (that is nonsense), the fact remains that Brussels can’t enforce such a “law” even if one existed. Lets remember that dozens of EU “suggestions” have already been ignored by each and every EU member state.
Brussels will concede to the UK on most points, or else England will walk away and certain EU member states with export driven economies (cough Germany cough) will negotiate separate trade deals directly with the UK.
And no one other than some slimey irrelevent ambulance chasers gives a damn about alleged EU laws — not even the EU itself. They are unenforceable suggestions.
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those are the laws (which Britain adhered to as well).
Merkel just told Trump to take a hike when he said that Germany’s trade surplus with the US needs to be sorted out. Not even Merkel could avoid the hypocrisy of not dealing with the US, because it is illegal, yt dealing direct with Britain somehow would be.
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no one in the EU obeys EU “laws” — especially not the EU itself
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“Even if negotiating as a sovereign state were somehow “illegal” (that is nonsense), the fact remains that Brussels can’t enforce such a “law” even if one existed.”
Well, they have amped up the discussion of forming a EU Army. Better brick up the Chunnel fast! Worst case, if they can’t muster up a new army quick enough, they’ll simply open up a can of migrant on the UK’s posterior, which might explain why the EU is going to great lengths and expense to increase the importation of these this season.
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keep dreaming
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Yes, trading fidelity is core to the EU. And breaking the “law” would lead to another fine to negotiate against the rogue member? I like the sound of that.
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one way to look at it would be that the EU will be resposible for direct payments to Poland of around 10 billion a year.
this is a bit out of date, but it’s not a bad starting position for finances in the EU. Note that Britain was the second largest contributor, a few billion behind Germany and a billion ahead of france.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11221427/EU-budget-what-you-need-to-know.html
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The UK should send a bill to the EU for all the damage shoving thousands of North African invaders into their lands have caused.
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Africa for Africans, Asia for Asians, White countries for Everyone IS White Genocide.
White Genocide is a crime, not a ‘policy option’.
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If the UK paid a single pound it would set a very bad precedent that unelected officials can hold a country for ransome. The UK should walk because discussions with unelected officials promotes dictatorships.
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The UK has paid half a trillion. Quantifiably, what has the UK received in return for the “investment”? I would assume that all countries in the Eurozone are net beneficiaries, since Euros are printed out of thin air.
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Germany has paid the most but on the other hand German companies have gotten a captive market in eurozone where local companies have a hard time competing against german efficiency.
German exports to eurozone countries would be a lot less if there was NO eurozone and each country had their own floating currency with the value decided by free markets since this would have given more competitiveness for local companies against german exports and also given a chance to export local products to those countries outside of Eurozone where german exports dominate by competing against strong-deutchmark Germany with their floating currency if there was no euro at all.
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The only country which has benefited from Euro is Germany, all others have lost from euro to varying degrees,
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brüssels – goodbye England
helloooo Scotland, Wales, & Ulster
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yep, would be great to kick them out of the UK, the English should not have to pay billions a year to support their economies and Europe would pay them all the subsidies the English currently do… NOT!!!
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buy the way, how do you think the welsh, ulster british and scots would go with servicing their share of 1.7 trillion pounds worth of debt?
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They would just walk away from it, as in the precedent set by England.
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exactly – the €100 billion owed by England to Brussels represents debts payments and similar liabilities the English parliament voted on in the past and made legal commitments to pay back.
It’s debt owed and it’s debt that will be collected one way or another.
the english can go the easy way or go the hard way.
The Hard way would be rather nasty & brutal for England.
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Vooch – not so. UK has been net contributor to EU. The exit bill is fabricated out of commitments UK agreed to while part of EU, where there was no resolution written in regarding Brexit because it was not considered by either side at the time. Now EU is accounting and holding those commitments up as if it has the outright authority over the matter, saying it won’t even negotiate a way forward until they are paid, which is frankly absurd, sinister even. Do us a favour and find the text ‘ in event of exit … ‘ that stipulates the resolution.
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For all the trouble that the EU has caused the UK, the UK should just extend their middle finger of friendship and walk away.
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Actually, UK children are still taught enough of their history (and telly these days is chock-a-block with endless hours of Britain’s finest hour for the adults) that this little nation of shopkeepers that vexed Napoleon, the Kaiser, and the Nazis will still have enough historical sense to extend the two bowsmens’ fingers symbolic of Agincourt to the Bloody Continentals.
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Hat tip to the brits. I expected the rulers to concoct a phony reason to eliminate Brexit as an option. But it appears that it may actually happen. This will be a huge defeat to the globalists. Thank you, Englanders, for giving the rest of us some hope.
Had something similar occurred in America some black-robed government worker with a law degree would have already declared the vote to be unconstitutional.
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Agree about brexit.
Regarding the arrogant US trolls in black robes with law degrees… I wonder if any of them have thought through their legal opinions. Since obeying the law is optional, determined solely by one’s political opinion, what is to stop every person (including, not just limited to police, street gangs, politicians, bank CEOs, etc) from just doing whatever the hell they want?
Answer: nothing. If its OK for black robes to ignore written law, then it is OK for everyone else too. I am not saying either act is / would be legal — I am saying from a practical matter, once laws become suggestions (as in the EU), everyone just does as they please.
The courts have ruled themselves irrelevent, but they are too arrogant to realize the practical implications of what they did.
PS — when (not if) the police figure out their pensions are empty promises, I wonder if they are going to put their lives on the line pro bono for a legal system that screwed them over?
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Aa few points:
1) Looks like any deal can go through without 26 euro states signing it off – long story – been a check in the courts in the eu.
2) Merkel is pushing to change employment laws to make hire + fire easier. They expect UK to beome more competitive and so are taking action – this is bad for GERMANS. They are paying the EUs bills and will see workers rights reduced too. Doh! Partly to attract finance to Frankfurt. She had meeting on Berlin with business leaders recently.
3) Wales voted OUT. NI + Scotland moving to EU would boost England. I’ve seen the figures that are real and true. They would both be worse off and a net debit to the EU without English transfers and both would have to adopt the Euro as GBP would not be possible.
Further to this the UK has the largest trade deficit with the EU of any EU nation – 100Bn Euro ANNUALLY and is the 2nd largest net trade contributor to Germany (Net as in Export – Import not as an absiolute figure) as well as large net funding contributor – a sucker – and became the employer of last resort?
If Tories win the election expect them to walk out of negotiations if its not moving properly by Oct/Nov 2017.
Patience is wearing thin on both sides. Its going to become very confrontational and messy.
What happens when youth can’t migrate for jobs to UK? Will they demand change at home?
Junker wants English out of the EU, more French – so do we.
Unfortunately > 90% of EU youth learn English as a foreign language – he’ll have to stop that.
Perhaps the money saved can go into the EU budget to keep the gravy train rolling.
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A few counter points:
(1) EU “laws” are really just suggestions. Already, no member state obeys them unless they feel like it. If EU laws mattered, Mario Draghi would be wearing an orange jump suit and handcuffs. EU courts are irrelevant anyway, because they have no way to enforce anything.
(2) Germany is an export led economy. Merkel will negotiate a trade deal with England with or without Brussels …. or she will be replaced with someone who will. Germany isn’t going to give up their economy and domestic welfare system to make Brussels happy, and its just that simple.
Read my lips, kiss my intern, WMDs slam dunk, if you like your doctor… promises from politicians don’t matter, money talks. Germany’s economy trumps Brussels every time.
(3) the polls about Wales or Scotland leaving just asked philosophically if those entities want to stick their middle finger up at London. Ask them if they want to pay their share of England’s debts plus England’s contributions to Brussels (for which they get negative return) — every person in Wales and Scotland will start singing God Bless the Queen.
(4) People all over the world use English as a business language. If the EU gets rid of English, they will be in even worse competitive straights then they already are. If they are going to replace English, obvious choices would be Chinese or Spanish. Only an idiot would pick French.
On behalf of every company in the world with European competition (for now), I pray the EU will be so stupid as to force French on their dying societies. Everyone else’s sales will increase
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….. that would be ‘God save the Queen’ Medex 😉 .
It is getting to the point where no-one knows wtf is going on in EU.
O/T Sanchez won the PSOE party leadership contest…and has previously stated he will stall the Spanish government.
Meanwhile Cataluña has just let know that if no referendum is allowed they will declare independence without further consultation
http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/05/21/actualidad/1495389893_104663.html
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Funny, that story headlines in Spain, but nothing in English… Googled under news for Catalan by recent and it was stories like ‘Stunning miss BumBum in her Barcelona shirt’ from The Sun… go figure.
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God save the queen, God bless the Queen — we in the former colonies across the pond never got the hang of this royalty stuff.
Canada recently asked their citizenry if they wanted to stop recognizing the Queen as their official (nominal) sovereign. I have no idea what prompted the discussion or whether it passed. Not even sure if the Canadian government did anything.
America wanted to know if this Canadian queen debate was going to impact the flow of Molson beer? We were assured it would not, so God bless/save the Queen.
Just make sure the Guinness and Molson gets delivered. Don’t ask us about the French owning Budweiser now, we don’t like to talk about that
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🙂 . Sure you know about royalty, it is like what say a president comes to symbolise during his term, except as a family over a much longer period of time. That just makes the symbolism closer and more level because it incorporates a longer timeline, which makes royalty a bit more disciplined as they usually understand the responsibility of maintaining a certain honour and of being restrained, of setting good manners . Apart from a few excesses they tend to be quite human, usually in the better sense. Anyway, even as Americans you cannot avoid that they affect you in some way – how would you have become independent without them?
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devolution FTW.
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Another thing.
Everyone expects a massive Conservative election win. That may be bad for Brexit as it will dilute the influence of the “walk away now brigade” in the Conservative party.
I think the Gov majority will not be as big as expected but ironically that will lead to a quicker exit as the hard Leavers will have more influence and be less diluted.
If the EU are concerned at all they better hope for a massive Tory win on June 8th. Ironic?
Word is if there is no real hope of a deal, sensible signs of one, by Oct/Nov 2017 (yes that soon) the Gov is prepared to admit it won’t happen and stop talking and get on with re-orientating the UK. This is a reason for the June 8th election call too. It was planned out that way as they need to move fast and prepare for the election following in 5 yrs time.
It’s going to be bumpy for the UK. Too close to the next election to make the break and its asking for real trouble for the Tories at the ballot box. Turbulence early on in the next Parliamnent would probably be better timed, not half way through.
This is real.
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You are thinking like a politician — nothing you talk about matters if people can’t find a job / if their job can’t find customers.
Lots of temper tantrums and rhetoric, but in the end all these limp politicians will concede or they will get lynched. “Its the economy stupid”
German exporters can’t afford to lose customers. French farmers can’t afford to lose customers. And while they will face less pain than those on the continent, British companies can’t afford to lose customers either.
Brussels already lost this whole argument, their leader is just to drunk to know it.
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German pivoting to Iran, China (meetings recently) and expect thaw with Russia.
They are seeking replacement markets fast as possible.
Even Turkey except Turkey encroached on Greek airspace multiple time recently and got a slap on the wrists for being considered a bad neighbour so now on the naughty step.
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In the sixties, Dr. Eric Berne wrote a best seller titled “Games People Play”. I suggest you read it. One of the games was titled. “Try And Make Me”. what game is the British government playing with the EU? Yes, and that is the entire problem with the EU negotiating team, they do not understand the rules for this game and Ms May does. Well play Ms May.
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The EU is caught between bad and worse. To allow the UK to walk without punishment, sets the terms when Italy leaves. If they punish them, the EU literally cuts off their nose to spite their face. Either way the EU loses.
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Won’t it be worse if Britain just walks out of the talks? Then there will no chance of Britain getting any trade deals with the EU. The EU won’t see any good reason to share and do business with Britain. Will soon get to see some real economic warfare going on.
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Won’t it be worse if Britain just walks out of the talks? Then there will no chance of Britain getting any trade deals with the EU. The EU won’t see any good reason to share and do business with Britain. Will soon get to see some real economic warfare going on.
WTO agreements are the fallback position, I believe automatically. Scotland is another issue. If they are not part of the UK, they never had a WTO agreement with the EU.
Scotland is tied to the UK
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“Finally, if and when 26 nations do grasp reality, will the desire to punish the UK overrule common sense?”
The desire to punish Germany over rode common sense in 1918. World War 2 followed.
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Yes, think the unthinkable. It could happen again. Just one deep recession away from people finding some demagogue to support and missiles to start flying.
History rhymes sometimes, especially if the French talk punishment.
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Mish, I am not going into details because our positions are two far from each other. I also don’t know how reasonably high a “divorce bill” could be since I don’t know the calculations. Obviously, you seem to know, based on your very opinionated blog post.
But let me raise a question: The UK-EU agreements for co-investments and projects until 2013 bear the signature of Cameron (the former UK prime minister, should you have forgotten). The idea to “just walk away” and “give a f.” about any kind of possible contractual obligations is an interesting one.
Now, I have an even more interesting idea or question. You represent SITKA PACIFIC Capital. Regarding investments, do they take the same approach regarding contracts that you recommend the UK to take?
Just wondering.
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Sitka Pacific has no official position on Brexit. My blog is my personal opinion.
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The EUs own lawyers have confirmed there is no basis in law to support their payment demand. Check it out, it’s fact.
Also, Article50 over-arches all and once out all previous obligations are ended. Read it.
Also, Article50 is clear it is the EUs job to negotiate with the leaving party, not the other way round.
When confronted with the question, “Is Article50 fit for purpose?” presented to those towards the top of the EU negotiating team – silence. They have to work to an Article that is preposterous and typical of the EU. They wrote it. Applied properly it damages them. It’s ridiculous. Written as such because it was never meant to be used and Amato (amongst others) didn’t think it through.
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The Brits should be happy the EU’s demands are completely unreasonable. Now they can just tell them to go piss into the wind. The Jean-Claude Juncker deal is indeed: Junk.
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When President Trump met Merkel she declined eleven times to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement. Prime Minister May is agreeable that English eat better for less.
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“Berlin and Paris are refusing to pay more to cover the UK’s departure, while those governments who receive the most from EU funds are opposed to any cuts in spending…none of the 27 member states wished to contribute more to the current multi-annual financial framework or receive less in projects financed under the framework.”
Reality is hitting another socialist state, the EU. The downfall of all socialist and social welfare and warfare states is an event that reduces financial funding for all the goodies. No one wants to tighten the belt and reduce spending. That is only for other people like those in Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The EU socialist paradise is meeting its Waterloo in Brexit, and is headed for collapse. Arrogant, out-of-touch ruling aristocracy is headed for the French chopping block. Glad to be a spectator of the EU from a distance. Makes USA with its Schumer-led Russophobic witch hunts seem strangely bearable.
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Unlike the Greeks the British have their own currency and this currency can compete (and does compete) with the Euro as an international currency, so the EU has no real leverage and is at a severe disadvantage if the GBP teams up with the Yen or Yuan (as well as the USD).
The British historically has had a good relationship with that other island powerhouse Japan – and it is certain that China would welcome more trade to diss Germany. Whether Britain would be prepared to weaken the USD link and use it’s financial expertise to aid BRICS ambitions for alternative world bank status is something that circumstance (and need) will decide.
Both the Euro area and the US could suffer in this Asian century whilst the GBP may actually gain more freedom to act.
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Hi Folk , What I have always noticed that socialists are always hunting for some one else’s money , they seem to think that the Brits are stupid and are going to make it big for them , globalism is dead .
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UK is making overtures to China, last 2 weeks there were meetings, high level.
May has launched a manifesto that is clear there will be costs to voters for Brexit. Various benefits to be curtailed to pensioners to start with.
Next budget will hit others.
The country is beginning to understand wants have costs, no bad thing to realise that. Costs to be borne mostly by those that voted for it.
Also, she is playing to Labour supporters in the knowledge her own supporters will vote for her anyway and UKIP are now dead, no threat there.
If she doesn’t get a big enough majority though she will be more controlled by the hard Brexit bunch in her own party as they will have more influence and she won’t be able to call on as much internal support to shut them up.
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UK is a huge net-payer to EU so since this will be gone it will increase the amount of money UK has to better the life of ordinary people in UK.
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In the event that there is NO deal WTO tariffs start working and the WTO agreement takes the place of current EU rules in regarding exports and imports between UK and EU.
UK will be a net-beneficiary of the tariffs because EU exports to UK are much larger than UK exports to EU meaning UK government can pay ALL the tariffs UK companies will incur from their exports to EU.
This is good for UK budget and UK companies because they will be better able to compete in the internal UK market because EU competition will have tariffs to worry about and EU countries can NOT compensate these to their businesses because they are net-exporters to UK whereas UK is a net-importer from EU and can therefore compensate the tariffs to UK businesses from the tariffs they will collect from EU imports to UK.
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The larger her majority the more likely a compromise can be reached.
Smaller majority = less chance.
Some EU projects already being taken away and no future UK participation – Galileo as an example.
Hence, Chinese overtures are important as they would like to get hands on UK capabilities in science and technology that the EU will shun.
China and the UK can help each other and the EU will notice a difference there.
Same if China wants manufacturing bases near EU.
China and UK to become natural partners. We need them, they can use us.
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Talks to start around 11 days after election on June 8th.
Once out the EU will fast track integration.
German election is last obstacle before foot to the metal.
Thereafter tax harmonisation and fiscal authority, suspect that is when fur will fly. German tax payers likely not happy and Southern Europeans annoyed too.
Total German control of central Europe will be achieved.
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The UK is on the edge of a precipice, all the brexit bigots flapping their fins and braying like performing sealions for a hard exit won’t save us from a potential disaster. At the very least living standards are heading south and at best the brexit crowd seem to be hoping the EU suffer the same fate.
With their nationalistic fantasies, potted histories and general ignorance of what England and Empire really was for the plebs who had to endure it, and I assume think we’re going back to, then god help us all.
Economic reality will smash through nationalistic fantasies soon enough.
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nationalistic realities smashing through economic fantasies seems more likely. EU has no leverage, no viable bargaining position. nationalism is instinctual, federalism is theoretical. you gonna wager against human nature? good luck with that…
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Most important take from this is that both sides have now outlined their negotiating position:
“… even a 1 billion-pound settlement would be “a lot of money,” Davis said …”
Two sides will meet somewhere between 1 billion and 100 billion, it seems. My guess is there will be some sort of compromise that includes long-term phased future market access concessions that will be claimed to be in lieu of a ‘cash’ settlement. In such a way both sides can claim success, at least from a propaganda perspective.
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Between 50Bn and 1Bn. The 100Bn was out of thin air and both it and 50Bn are far too precise to be taken seriously.
Look at it this way – the higher the number the less impetus for the UK to talk at all. 100Bn, 50bn are both “foxtrot-oscar” numbers and neither are enforceable in law as determined by both the UK and EU sides. What’s the point in not being realistic, there is none.
Sit, sort out a proper number based on facts and then proceed.
UK accountants reckon it should be towards 5Bn or so to cover liabilities.
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If UK leaves EU with NO deal then especially Germany and France will be hard hit by the WTO tariffs that will come into effect.
UK can pay ALL the WTO tariffs that UK companies will incur from their exports to EU and UK will still be tens of billions pounds ahead because EU companies have to pay a lot more in tariffs because EU exports to UK are much larger than UK exports to EU.
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EU is in essence trying to start a recession in Germany and France and making UK a net-beneficiary of tens of billions in WTO tariffs in the event of a NO deal.
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Sometimes I think that only the most incompetent people end up working for the EU-commission…
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If there were any sense in bureaucrats heads they would tell that the bill for UK is 0 euros and free trade agreement between UK and EU that keeps trade flowing the same as under EU membership. This would mean EU would avoid losing tens of billions to WTO tariffs they would have to pay to UK in the event of NO deal.
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From a private sector job Druncker would have been fired years ago…
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I might be very wrong but it looks increasingly that the EU is doing everything possible not to strike a deal. As you say Germany and France will be very badly hit, so will Spain and Italy. I fully expect that if WTO tariffs are applied this will hit EU agriculture very, very hard and quickly.
The EU could not have handled Brexit more badly had they tried. First, they humiliated Cameron and helped engineer a Leave vote. Then instead of turning around and saying ‘We regret this result, but the UK has a very different history and traditions, so we propose we strike a Treaty of Friendship with the UK. . . ‘ Alas pig ignorant fools like Druncker run the show so here we are looking at a trade war and much bad blood that will last a generation or more.
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The bad blood lasting a generation will be the kids having to endure the brexit idiocy delivered by a base campaign of blatant lies and deceit orchestrated to try and resolve the nasty party’s internal tensions from tearing themselves apart, derail the kippers and to get the less intelligent and their bigotry excited and voting, then to use the EU as a scapegoat for all the many failings of Thatcher et al.
Ironically the generation that endure brexit could well end up becoming economic migrants to the continental mainland while the generation of cretins that delivered it sleep eternal.
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pure fantasy.
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Another deluded brexit bozo.
The brexit campaign was a pack of lies and deceitful, emotive claptrap from the start. Run by a bunch of self serving spivs who would all rather sell the NHS in a heartbeat than give it a penny of the 350M lie they peddled.
From the start the leave campaign was designed to get clueless numpties excited – appealing directly to their base prejudice and bigotry, we all know the type.
Many of the cretins the leave campaign energised and excited thought they were voting to get rid of the muslims and all the other foreigners, to make England white again. That’s those who even knew what they were voting for, it’s been shown countless times that many leave voters simply had no idea what they were voting for or why they voted to leave beyond protesting against government so called austerity. Irony meter now broken.
Proof positive the leave campaign is, on the whole, composed of a bunch of dimwits.
So now instead of the EU club and superb trade agreements with our closest neighbours we have to start prostituting to the Chinese, Japanese and anyone else who will entertain us.
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Catch-22:
Increasing the amount that net-payers have to pay by the UK share of EU budget would increase anti-EU feelings.
Lowering the amounts that net-beneficiaries receive by the UK share of EU budget would increase anti-EU feelings.
.
EU is between a rock and a hard place.
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Good.
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The arrogance of Juncker and Bettel is amazing. That these two nitwits from pipsqueak Luxembourg think they can dictate how much the UK must pay is crazy
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… and on all this, I am waiting for GBP to sink soon…
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