Survation posted a pair of back-to-back polls on June 2-3 that had the lead for Theresa May’s Tories (conservatives), down to 1% over Jeremy Corbyn’ Labour Party.
Those Survation polls now look like outliers or more likely fatally flawed methods.
Here are the latest polls.
UK June 8 Election Final Polls
Jeremy Corbyn’s Surge: is Labour’s Poll Boost Real?
The New Statesman writer Stephen Bush asks Jeremy Corbyn’s Surge: is Labour’s Poll Boost Real?
Are Labour on the verge of something big? YouGov’s final seat projection puts them on 269 seats, gaining just 37 seats on 2015, but crucially, more than enough gains for the parties of the centre and left to shut out the parties of the right – the Conservatives would have 302 seats, comfortably the largest party but not big enough for the DUP and the UUP to get them out of trouble. (I explain the arithmetic of a hung parliament here.)
Although YouGov are comfortably providing the sunniest picture for Labour supporters, the picture is clear across all the pollsters – Labour are surging across the polls. Although there are two very distinct groups as far as the polling companies are concerned – ICM, IpsosMori, ComRes and ORB are showing large Conservative leads, YouGov, Opinium and Survation are showing small ones – they are actually showing a very similar picture.
What they’re showing is this: Theresa May has taken a big chunk out of the Ukip vote, and a small but significant slice of the Liberal Democrat vote. That’s been the pattern since the start of the campaign. What’s happened is that her campaign has alienated a group of Labour voters who dislike Jeremy Corbyn and were planning on voting for May, who had presented herself as a different type of Conservative. Now as far as that group of voters is concerned, May has revealed herself to be a thoroughly typical Conservative, and that group is now back to voting for Labour.
Stephen Bush is certainly closer to the political situation than I am, but our take on what happened diverges with the most recent polls.
My take is those who changed their minds to back Corbyn have had a change of mind.
Perhaps the recent terrorist attacks put May back on track. Perhaps voters are wondering “How is the UK going to pay for all of his Labour promises?”
It does not matter why, but if the final polls by ComRes and ICM are accurate the Tories may win in a blowout.
Back in April, numerous polls had Tory leads of 20-25 percentage points. But those polls were a likely mirage.
If one goes back to January, the Tory lead was 8 to 17 percentage points.
Now polls are reasonably close to where they were in January, albeit on the lower end of that range.
Discounting the wild swings, one in each direction, we are right back where we started from.
Tossing aside the Survation Outliers, the average of seven polls concluding June 2 or later is 9.6.
Number of Seats
The above prediction from Electoral Calculus.
YouGov Final Calculation
Mish UK Election Prediction
A strong turnout by liberal youth who do not know any better is Labour’s only possible salvation. We find out tomorrow.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
John Cusins said:
hi mish – as a uk based observer it is interesting to see how much credibility people place on some of these polls. May is a not good PM but she will hammer the results tomorrow of which there is no doubt. Lifelong labour supporters I know are horrified by Corben.
As an aside, your views on climate change look misplaced and annoying. Citing hundreds of years of data unaffected by man on historical temperatures seems curious. there is indeed much evidence of modern causality and even if its wrong why wouldnt you err on the side of caution?
I will do a followup post on global warming to more fully explain my position
I’ll take climate change seriously the moment one of the “scientists” can produce a model that back-tests. Until then it stays in the religion category. Science is about reproducibility. Not a single prediction by the “climate scientists” in the past 50 years has come true,
Dennis P Sheehan said:
Agreed. The cherry picked data of today’s “scientists” is laughable. NONE of their predictions have come to pass for the 10-30 year terms they were working with so now they are predicting 100+ years down the road-when they will all be dead. The IPCC has already admitted the whole AGW scam is a wealth distribution deal to take money from the US and give it to worthless dictators. The other thing-I will start even considering AGW as soon as the adherents start acting like it is real. Now they blow carbon into the atmosphere in prodigious amounts through their private planes, multi vehicle use, and grand mansions. Yeah they really believe…
Maximus Minimus said:
I get it. So because billions of years of evolution cannot be reproduced, we shouldn’t believe Darwin and stick to what the bible says. Correct?
Mike (not that Mike) said:
No MM, it is because the Theory of Evolution still does not provide for biogenesis.
But the reality is that the earth is an incredibly complex system and many models conveniently ignore unwieldy variables that are either too difficult to put in the model or tend to interfere with the desired result. Good science generally results in good models.
It is a lot easier to provide for a taxing method on carbon then there is for one on water vapor. So, guess what becomes the driver in all of the models. Follow the money.
That kind of false equivalence and exaggeration is EXACTLY why I will not accept the word of an alarmist any more. I used to be sympathetic to the climate change theories but the past 6 months have shown beyond any doubt the lengths that side of the debate will go to get their way. The “Trump is Hitler!” and “he wants to put brown people in camps!” demagoguery , along with the “Russia! Russia! Russia!” hoax have lost me forever and destroyed whatever credibility that side ever had. I hope you can appreciate the damage you’ve done to your own causes.
Maximus Minimus said:
Here I am referring to a similar theory of parallel but different evolution between Earth and Venus. Earth become a green planet because life got a foothold, Venus remains a scalding rock because oxygen and carbon are tied up in CO2. Oh, but no one can prove it in the lab.
“Oh, but no one can prove it in the lab.”
Which makes it a THEORY. An interesting theory likely to be most probable but unprovable nonetheless. Yet. So what?
I think my point is that those pushing the climate change narrative have shown that they’ll say anything – no matter how laughably absurd – to shut down debate. That makes it impossible to have a rational or good-faith discussion on the matter.
Medex Man said:
Levying “taxes” to support an army of overpaid, talentless bureaucrats is not a theory. Its public union greed. Its theft. Its unethical.
And it diverts attention away from honest efforts to improve the environment — efforts that benefit the entire population, not just greedy government bureaucrats
Dr J said:
The Earth versus Venus example put forth by Maximus has one huge flaw from the the get go. They are not equal distances from the Sun. Now if they were on the same orbit and had two populations, one going with the sky is the limit on burning fossil fuels and the other using the opposite approach, then you might have a more plausible comparison. Still might have to many variables even then to render it fallible.
Mike (not that Mike) said:
MM, your claim that “Venus remains a scalding rock because oxygen and carbon are tied up in CO2” simply emphasizes the blind fanaticism of AGW adherents that ignore key variables the system as a whole. It is likely a factor, but far from the only reason. And CO2 concentrations there are not even comparable to what they are on Earth. A ridiculous comparison on multiple levels, much like your previous one.
As Dr J already pointed out, spatial relations to the sun is probably a very important factor.
Additionally, atmospheric pressure at the surface of Venus is almost 100 times greater than that of earth. That means that the atmospheric gasses are compressed significantly there. And what happens when gasses are compressed? (Go use one of those compressed air keyboard cleaners and experience the opposite effect…)
The fixation on just one variable (the one that can be taxed) shows the shallowness of the supposed reasoning of the AGW zealots.
Agree with “Dr J” and “Mike (not that Mike).” MM comparison between Venus and Earth atmospheres is oversimplified to the point of being ludicrous. Besides distance from the sun and atmospheric pressure, another likely important factor is the difference between Earth’s magnetic shield and Venus’s. One does not have to look far to find that Venus’s magnetic shield is thought to allow lighter molecules in its atmosphere to be scrubbed away into space by the solar wind.
Toby Chambers said:
Corbyn surge is very real
You just need to look at the Bookies who got Brexit wrong.
A majority of 60% of punters in election are Betting Corbyn has the most seats but 93% smart money of the actual money is on Tories with most seats
You can bet all your money but you only get 1 vote
Someone is wrong
Medex Man said:
@john cusins — “…there is indeed much evidence of modern causality and even if its wrong why wouldnt you err on the side of caution?”
Are you losers still trying to levy more taxes for Al Gore?
Global warming has been thoroughly discredited. Oxford academics cherry picked data to suit their left leaning personal beliefs, and were caught in the act.
You think you can rebrand the same scam as “climate change” and levy taxes under a different label? Forget about global warming, YOU are a fraud. Trying to pull the exact same scam, under a different label.
You are like a used car salesman trying to sell a lemon with a scratched off VIN number. Same crappy car, different VIN — so you think no one will notice your switch?
The private sector will (hopefully) continue to limit pollution — because it is in our interest to do so.
We don’t need a corrupt, unelected bureaucracy levying taxes to promote THEIR lavish lifestyle. We have too much of that already.
You are a moron.
Listen to the words of former United Nations climate official Ottmar Edenhofer:
“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with the environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole,” said Edenhofer, who co-chaired the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group on Mitigation of Climate Change from 2008 to 2015.
So what is the goal of environmental policy?
“We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy,” said Edenhofer.
The Real John Smith said:
“why wouldnt you err on the side of caution?”
Ummm…. because it is HUGELY expensive and a lot of poor people will die because they can’t afford the energy they need to live.
There’s a reason they don’t put an emergency exit on every row in the airplane.
You can’t put a price on ideology. That’s not to say that there are many who make out quite well from it. Al gore seems to be doing well if his homes and girth imply anything. Climate Change advocates can claim all of the “scientific consensus” they please but they must accept that their “industry”has a massive credibility problem, and as such should show we deniers a little bit of consideration
Theresa may rallies comprise a few tory activists in a room while corbyns entail thousands… just saying
Which party is more seriously for exit from the EU?
What happened to UIPK (or whatever proper name is) why is it loosing so much? You would think they would be gaining votes
UKIP – UK Independence Party lost its primary reason to be when Brexit happened
UKIP had a bout of infighting after Brexit and so far have failed to reconfigure themselves. If they want to survive they need to be pro growth, pro reform and balance pragmatic libertarian principals with a social welfare platform that can win mainstream floating voters.
Instead they said little overall and focussed on regulating what clothes muslim women wear.
As bad as the Tories are, some may be figuring that Labor will be worse…
Sadly similar to the choices available in the last US election.
Medex Man said:
Theresa May seems determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with her calls for a militarized police state and censorship…. but despite her efforts, she is likely to “win” anyway because the alternative is even worse.
But instead of picking up lots of seats in Parliament and getting a voter mandate to heave-ho the EU… she will get a small majority so she doesn’t over-reach and mess up the newly liberated UK.
Governments create policies supposedly trying to extol values we have not yet enjoyed, which often bring great destruction and unrest among us, and THEN offer even more draconian measures that are in conflict with everything we ever thought represented freedom and liberty….to save us.
At what point will we be willing to accept and acknowledge that EVERY thing our government does for us is actually TO us and that NOTHING they can perpetrate upon us will lead to anything but greater yet punishments …… for our own good.
May threatens liberty to save her population from a risk that she and her ilk perpetrated upon them by refusing to prevent known threats from entering and residing there, leaving to fight with ISIS only to return again. Will she soon recommend suicide as the preferable alternative to potential pain and suffering? What NEW loving measures will our governments impose upon us beyond 24/7 surveillance and indefinite detention and god only knows what else?
Something unreal about this election that I don’t like.
Anecdotal – voted at about 7.40AM.
Polls open at 7.
I was the only voter in there so asked the officials if it had been busy.
Emphatic yes, it had been very busy from the open.
I guess it was workers commuting and old folk getting up early than youth?
seemed quiet to me as well and im in a torysafe seat.
I think you may be right in your projections Mish. As I said previously May will retain the majority who voted for Brexit (Conservative and Labour), all of the Conservatives who voted for Bremain, and the rest will be split umpteen different ways. I think you are being too generous with the wishy washy wiberwals – hopefully they will get completely wiped out tonight. If you are a Tory, Tim Farron has proven himself to be THE man to have in charge of the wiberwals. Hammering down with rain here in the North West of England. Bad weather always works in favour of the Tories.
I always thought lembical dumboc*nts was a better anagram for lib dem.
Yes, what on earth happened to that clown Lembit Opik, or whatever his name was. No wait! I really REALLY don’t want to know. HONEST!
It is not just youth who are attracted by Corbynism. Swathes of the public sector notably in ‘health care’ and ‘education’ are seeing their dependent self-interest in Corbynism.And their families. And many throughout society ,notably the more aged, who fear for their health and retirement. Bastiat knew the syndrome. Collectivist statism….socialism under all parties….produces socialist dependence.
If voters reject May, they will get what they deserve. Personally I think the polls are wrong and it will be a strong victory and majority instead.
From the Carlisle Stone
I curse their head and all the hairs of their head; I curse their face, their brain, their mouth, their nose, their tongue, their teeth, their forehead, their shoulders, their breast, their heart, their stomach, their back, their womb, their arms, their legs, their hands, their feet, and every part of their body, from the top of their head to the soles of their feet, before and behind, within and without.
I curse them going and I curse them riding; I curse them standing and I curse them sitting; I curse them eating and I curse them drinking; I curse them rising, and I curse them lying; I curse them at home, I curse them away from home; I curse them within the house, I curse them outside of the house; I curse their wives, their children, and their servants who participate in their deeds; their crops, their cattle, their wool, their sheep, their horses, their swine, their geese, their hens, and all their livestock; their halls, their chambers, their kitchens, their stanchions, their barns, their cowsheds, their barnyards, their cabbage patches, their plows, their harrows, and the goods and houses that are necessary for their sustenance and welfare.
May all the malevolent wishes and curses ever known, since the beginning of the world, to this hour, light on them. May the malediction of God, that fell upon Lucifer and all his fellows, that cast them from the high Heaven to the deep hell, light upon them.
May the fire and the sword that stopped Adam from the gates of Paradise, stop them from the glory of Heaven, until they forebear, and make amends….
There is more but that’s about how I feel…..