Contrary to what may are saying, the Tory election debacle was not about Brexit. Rather, the election was about everything but Brexit.
Sure, the youth vote, turned out en masse for Corbyn, but Labour and Corbyn himself had already admitted the Brexit reality.
Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg explains nicely in This election created no mandate for watering down Brexit. There must be no backsliding.
Negotiations are about to start, and the nation cannot afford to show weakness across the channel. Already, people who never wanted to leave the European Union are calling for a change of tune, by which they mean a reversal of the referendum. “Hard” and “soft” Brexit are code words for leaving or staying in the EU, rather than for the terms of our departure. No such denial of the people’s will can be permitted.
Indeed, the essence of our strength is in the negotiating reality that no deal really is better than a bad deal. By the end of March 2019, if nothing has been agreed, we leave with all our money, laws and border controls, and the ability to trade with the EU the way we successfully do with everyone else. This is rather an attractive position, and much preferable to being a European satrapy. Mrs May seems to be aware of the strength of this position, and that is a good reason for her to remain.
As for the claim that this result means Mrs May must now drop her approach to Brexit and seek to keep Britain inside the European Economic Area, that is simply wrong. Although the Tory party hoped that the general election of 2017 would be about Brexit, it was not. Indeed, it was about everything except Brexit – social care, grammar schools, foxhunting – and the cleverness of Labour’s campaign was to leave Brexit alone. It is clear that voters did not want to be asked the same question twice; one decision was made in 2016, and fresh ones were to be made on Thursday. Similarly, the Scots showed they did not want to be asked the same question multiple times, hence the SNP’s decline.
This means that there is no mandate at all from this election for undermining Brexit. Remainers kept quiet during the campaign because they knew the matter was settled – with the exception of the Lib Dems, who, despite getting a few seats, are irrelevant.
The Labour Party likewise made no serious challenge to the outline set out by the Prime Minister. This election was therefore a tacit endorsement of Mrs. May’s Brexit strategy, for voters showed no desire to change it; it is better that she should carry it out.
MP Daniel Hannan Tweets
Reflections on Hannan
May’s Mistake Not What Most Suggest
The youth vote turned out, en masses, demanding “free stuff”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
When a sizeable portion of the electorate realise they can vote for free stuff for themselves the democracy is in deep trouble.
LikeLike
Problem is, the ability to vote for free stuff for themselves by having it taken from others, while pretending doing so is somehow made more legitimate on account of weird rituals conducted in voting booths, is all democracy was ever about.
LikeLike
FYI –
U.K Snap Election Results in Even More Conservative Coalition – Sending Social Justice Brits into Fits …
June 11, 2017
There has been much written about the downside consequences from Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call for a snap election and lose conservative seats. However, in an unexpected twist of fate, the coalition outcome is even more conservative than before.
The Tory party (traditional conservatives), with 218 seats, have struck a deal with the Democrat Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland, 10 seats and considered the British version of “far-right”, resulting in an even more conservative coalition governing body than before the election.
The resulting alignment is now sending the British liberal social justice crowd into fits….
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/06/11/u-k-snap-election-results-in-even-more-conservative-coalition-sending-social-justice-brits-into-fits/
LikeLike
Like the elderly have been doing – like in America – for decades?
LikeLiked by 1 person
So all the young’uns should be for getting rid of Social Security and other freebies, like that rather large social program for indoctrination: public schools?
And all the employees and businessmen beholden to government money are for spitting the government teat out of their mouths?
My God yes, 21st century America is so anti-socialism!
Just don’t touch my ox.
LikeLike
I didn’t say it was?
Public schools are not ‘indoctrination’ they bring enormous productivity benefits – imagine how poor we’d be (or we were) when the majority were illiterate or couldn’t do math or have any chance of landing a high level job or starting a successful business.
What doesn’t bring any productivity benefits and just discourages work in old age is welfare programs like social security and Medicare, the latter insanely overpriced due to the government being lobbied by insurance and drug companies. These were only created and are only much more generous than welfare for the poor because the old vote.
LikeLike
I love how Libs say stuff like, “without PUBLIC education, we would be a nation if illiterates”.
Do they not see the fabulous results of both private schools and home schools? Do they not realize that 18th Century America was more literate than 21st century America, and there were no “public schools” back then!
Frankly, if the government does it, it is done to the lowest common denominator and is most often pathetically done, if at all.
When a public school spends nearly $10,000 a year per student and “graduates” illiterate students, in capable of most any sort of labor, then the question needs to be “why?” Why are we wasting that money?
LikeLike
Are you implying that public schools are necessary for “enormous productivity benefits”? That there aren’t better, more cost effective ways of achieving the “enormous productivity benefits” described?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m against any and all social engineering schemes by government including government itself. People should be free to consent to whatever cockamamie form of government they want but also never be able to force that government on others.
That is how civilized people can find out what works best.
LikeLike
The actual argument is about who provides the education. Here in the UK State Schools (you call them Public Schools) teach to a low standard and churn out very poorly educated people. The standards in Universities have dropped too as a result. Our Public Schools (Private Schools) have much higher standards and produce better results. The solution might be privatisation and Education Vouchers which can be redeemed at any school. The left will hate that, so it has got to be a good idea.
LikeLiked by 1 person
” … imagine how poor we’d be (or we were) when the majority were illiterate or couldn’t do math or have any chance of landing a high level job or starting a successful business. ”
You obviously haven’t been out and about meeting many of the common folk of America lately. Why do you think it is swirling around the bowl?
LikeLike
You mean all those elderly that have been paying into Social Secrity and Medicare their whole working lives? You should be nominated for Humanitarian of the Year.
LikeLike
Not sure why you think me handing over my income to a known conman, in exchange for empty promises of 40 virgins and a perpetual motion machine at some future date; entitles me to feel all smug about robbing entirely unrelated children at gunpoint; once it turns out the known conman, eh you know, pulled a con…. And burned the cash on hookers, blow and self aggrandizement….
But I guess that’s why we have public “education.” Or, more accurately, crass indoctrination. Paid for with stolen funds, aimed solely at further entrenching the same junta who so successfully conned the geezers back in the day.
LikeLike
Well, animals do interact through the behavior of might makes right.
So do almost all so-called humans.
LikeLike
Regardless that the election was not a referendum on Brexit, I am aware that a lot of people voted Labour as a hope to overturn Brexit. Yes, non Democratic and absurd, but that is UK these days.
LikeLike
Why did so many prominent Remain voices lose their seats? Even Clegg.
Both Conservative and Labour parties now support an exit (as do the DUP) and the total number of MPs signed up is supposed to be about 90%.
Outside of some less than tolerant attitudes the DUP have some sensible policies (have only just read them) and are strong Unionists.
LikeLike
One of the best things is that the behavior of the Eurocrats since the vote has hammered home just how right it is to get out from under these Fockers.
LikeLike
May was and still is as stupid as Cameron. They line up nicely with Trump. Now on to Italy.
LikeLike
It’s called democracy. Dirty and rough around the edges.
Not a strong suit with the EU where they avoid asking the people.
Talk to the Irish, Danes and Dutch to get the idea.
LikeLike
But the establishment will try to make the election all about Brexit to sabotage all future efforts – just like it is trying to sabotage Trump in the USA.
Never count the swamp dwellers out. They are a persistent bunch.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Trump is sabotaging himself every time he opens his lying mouth or worst tweets some nonsense.
Latest proof 110 bn deal with the Saudis? Ha, ha there is only one deal for 1bn in ammuniation, Saudis are out of cash
Qatar: WTF??
LikeLike
Apparently you’re ignorant of the deals Obama cut with the enemy ME nations. He sold 84 new F-15’s and another 72 upgraded ones to the Saudi’s. He also sold 36 F-15’s to Qatar along with $11 billion in Patriot Missiles, attack helicopters and other military equipment.
Funny how the Obama fans are so selective when it comes to the news.
LikeLike
Oh, and Obama ended the arms embargo with Cuba too.
The Nobel Peace Prize winner. ha ha.
LikeLike
You misunderstood my comment. In the usual Trump way he claims a huge (best/smartest/wonderful etc) deal but there is nothing really behind it – just hot air.
Just look at the defense stocks – they should be huge winners on a 110 bn deal.
LikeLike
This was really good analysis of the election.
But that anyone could vote for Corbyn is a sign of the decay in England.
LikeLike
If you lived here you would understand better why this has happened. The propaganda in favour of Corbyn and Labour in the broadcast media (particularly the BBC) was relentless, painting him as some man of principle, which he is not nor ever was. The other thing is the young have been brought up on a diet of lefty claptrap, so it is not that surprising that they buy into the ‘Free Ice Cream’ nonsense. Eventually they will learn, probably through bitter experience, that the only good thing a Socialist ever does in this World is the Leaving of it.
LikeLike
This is what i saw also.
LikeLike
Corbyn, like Bernie Sanders are men of principle. Their problem is that socialist politics does,nt pay its own way.
LikeLike
It is a good thing that Corbyn gained a lot of ground and defeated the Blairites in his own party but still leaves the Tories in control. Let Thatcherism and Reaganomics completely implode under the watch of those who promoted it while Corbyn and his supporters provide a running commentary of what is happening!
LikeLike
Either your news is fake or the BBC is. obody knows what the youth turnout was since all votes are a simple cross with no name – you get a paper balot (unsigned) on which you mark a cross. all other analysis is guesswork based on sampling.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40220032
to quote “Reality Check verdict: We do not yet have any reliable figures for turnout by different age groups.”
LikeLike
Let’s be clear – since the Tory party relies on DUP support now, no deal is impossible and is even more of an emptier threat than before.
The DUP demand an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and are going to require it – that requires a deal. There’s not a majority in the HoC that would ever dream of allowing May to just walk away from negotiations with no deal.
How are you going to have an open border without being in the customs union or accepting free movement? Who the hell knows but it just shows the pointlessness of Brexit, creating trade barriers with your biggest export market and abandoning the most free market idea dreamt up by Thatcher – the European single market.
You can talk about the odd bit of regulation here or there but that faction of the Tory party has it totally out of magnitude and forgets that we’ll have to follow them in order to trade with Europe except we won’t be able to change them.
Utter insanity.
LikeLike
Mish has posted this before – But, listen to Daniel Hannan explain the benefits of leaving the EU and thus being free to negotiate trade agreements independently with the rest of the world.
LikeLike
The EU Internal Market is not all it is cracked up to be and is not as important to the UK as many claim. The problem with the EU is that it has delusions of being an ‘Empire’ (Barossos words not mine) and it is highly protectionist, inward looking and increasingly authoritarian. It levels tariffs and quotas on thousands of products, to our detriment. For example we can’t grow Citrus in the UK so why should we slap a 16% tariff on Oranges ?
LikeLike
Sounds to me like the British electorate just demanded EUR 100 billion “Brexit fee” gets paid to the people of England — more social spending, more infrastructure, education assistance.
I don’t know where this magic money is going to come from, but I suspect whatever coalition government in London is going to have to spend at least some of “Juncker’s” bonus money on England…
…which means the money available to pay off Brussels just went from zero to negative 60 billion euros.
If Brussels wouldn’t accept less than 60 billion (they tried to ask for 100B?) — how is Brussels going to save face now that they would have to pay England to get England to stay?
Brexit got solidified as May had hoped — just not the way she had hoped.
LikeLike
You only have borders if there are customs post ad immigration officials. No border guards and customs officials = no borders and no negottiations required. Check out the non-existent borders between Germany/France/Italy with Switzerland.
There will be no deal on Brexit – it never has been nor will be even a remote possibility, for logistical and political reasons.
LikeLike
I didn’t think I needed to add “/sarc” to the sentence about British voters taking Juncker’s non-existant 100B extortion money for themselves. England was never going to pay the EU.
LikeLike
The election may not have been about Brexit but Bremainers are out in force insisting that it was.
May should have gotten Brexit done before calling the election. Then she would have won for results.
LikeLike
We did so many prominent Remain voices lose their seats?
LikeLike
Trouble is there would have had to have been an election before Brexit anyway. Now the policy route is set up for before and after.
LikeLike
We went out to a restaurant today. Mixed clientele.
I’ve never before heard so many people talking politics.
In the distance “magic money tree” was heard to be spoken at a table of a mixed age.
Makers vs Takers, trouble awaits. No one mentions merit, a dirty or forgotten word.
Productivity is lower than the US, Germany, France and the average G7 whilst the tax system is complicated and there is a persistent deficit and trade imbalance.
If we do stay in the EU will money be pulled back out of Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt?
Is it too late for plans to be reversed by financial institutions?
LikeLike
I haven’t heard a single banker talking about leaving London for Paris or Frankfurt. Its simply not going to happen. Maybe Geneva… but even there it is not straight forward. Depart for Asia maybe. Warsaw (Poland) is very unlikely, but still better chance than Paris.
No one is going to leave a world class city with English language to go speak French or German. It would end their career.
I don’t care how many media personalities talk about finance shifting from London to Paris/Frankfurt — they don’t even know how to run a profitable newspaper / TV show. Dim witted scare tactics helped Bremain lose, and this bank fleeing nonsense is no different.
Theresa May really stepped in it, and big Parliament is now going to be somewhat hobbled (more gridlock, less action). At the margin, a gridlocked parliament is good for banking.
Nothing that happened in the UK is going to make the EU fiscally workable — and nothing the media outlets write / say will change that.
LikeLike
Would agree with that. Just add one point: all the Financial Centres have one thing in common: they are Common Law jurisdictions, and that is for a reason. Common Law takes a firm and logical view of property law and contract law unlike so many other systems.
LikeLike
Well, with Corbyn telling anyone who will listen that he and the labor party are going to block Brexit with their 265 votes I am sure that many will be disappointed when that does not occur. The fact is, Corbyn has no real power reward his voters with the free stuff he promised. So what is left, blaming Ms May for not losing enough votes to give him the majority? Sounds like something Al Gore would say.
LikeLike
He backs exit. He was supposed to support Remain in 2016 but kept a low profile and since said he backs the referendum result. Prior to that he was no Advocate of EU membership as per quite a few on the far left of Labour. Ideologically it’s seen as a crony capitalist creation to the benefit of multi-nationals and big banks with the price paid by commoditised labour who become akin to debt serfs with reduced democratic representation.
I agree with the reduced democratic representation part.
How do you end up with so many EU Presidents the people didn’t vote for?
LikeLike
… was decided when they didn’t vote for anybody else.
LikeLike
The same way London ended up with a German overseer in WWII. Oh, but he did not bother to take his throne at the time. If only the other countries in the EU would be so lucky. Yes, it is a great con.
LikeLike
The Spanish banking system is in a stae of increasing collapse. Half of their bank balance sheets are non-perfroming. The same applies to Italy. Brexit will be seen to be prescient, since the ECB will be the owner of government debt that will be downgraded to junk ratings. Spain has just been downgraded to two notches above junk at BBB (below BBB- is junk). Italy’s problems with Monte de Paschi are just the beginning and elections there are imminent. It will only take a more intelligent escalation of terorrist actions across Europe over a long hot summer and Europe will experience a polticial earthquake.
Who will Britain negotiate with in Europe once this happens? There will be no-one left with any credibility.
Labour just got handed yet another resounding electoral defeat, following its halcyon days under the proven liar and starter of false wars under the likes of Blair and his witch doctors.
Grab your popcorn – or fiddle for when Rome burns (after hundreds have already been killed in terroroist attacks in Brussels, Nice and Paris in recent times).
LikeLike
http://denariifin.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/how-do-you-explain-rise-of-corbyn.html
How do you explain the rise of Corbyn?
(or Sanders, Trump, Le Pen, Melenchon, Tsipras, PODEMOS, AfD, Wilders etc.)
General factors:
– People tired of the reflate wall street/ main street austerity framework post-08
– Career politicians bought off, incompetent, no reforms, policy inertia
– Main stream media are somewhat discredited vs independent media being available online
Specific factors:
– Corbyn was relatively unknown, ridiculed by media, but as he has been allowed a platform in this election people have listened to him, in the same way Andrea Ledsom was given prominence by the Brexit campaign
– He presented a programme of reform, investment, wage growth, benefiting most, while not being too aggressive on SME owners or global businesses
– May is a career politician with little or no policies to speak of
In France, Macron, a centrist, won vs the two alt candidates as he promised hope & reform without upheaval
Its not clear what the outcome of the UK election is, I would guess a hung parliament at the moment.
But what is clear is the process of electorates rejecting centrist, incumbent party career politicians at the first chance. They are voting in the candidates offering reform and who are usually alternative right or left candidates, outsiders. Seems clear that if you want to win an election now you have to have a substantial reform programme
LikeLike
I put it down to a swtich of brexiters back to Labour, plus a switch of immigrant votes to Labour from the Tories as Labour spouted no plans to stop non-EU migration.plus anti-May tactical voting plus the collapse in the vote for the delusional SNP.
Corbyn may have gained a few dozen seats from this, but Labour is still the party of incompetence, albeit with the Tories trying their damnedest to catch up.
LikeLike
“The youth vote turned out, en masses, demanding “free stuff”. ”
Bollocks! The youth are sick and tired (and drowning in debt) because of Britain’s version of what US did – Reflate Wall Street with bailouts, deflate Main Street with austerity.
If anyone is getting “free stuff”, it is the mega corporations. People in the US and the Europe are finally realizing that.
LikeLike
Please tell me
Who was it that put the youth in debt?
LikeLike
The politicians exported the jobs and told the students that they all had to get college degrees in order to get work. Then they gutted funding for college even as they cut taxes on the rich and spent money on wars. Students borrowed money because they had to get a degree and there was no other way to pay for college.
LikeLike
No the real question is that QE is a magic money tree for the rich isn’t it?
LikeLike
Those who predicted that May will win with a larger majority were wrong. So were the corporate Blairite/Clintonite Labour Party “leaders” who were saying Corbyn will lead them to a 1931-style wipeout…
So, if you were so wrong about this election, you have to consider whether your so-called analysis is wrong as well.
LikeLike
Hard to disagree with that but the Remoaners are every bit obsessed as the anti Trump people in over turning the election result. Problem is some are Conservative MPs. A dog’s dinner, another election before Germany’s in the Autumn wouldn’t surprise me.
LikeLike
Mike, I suggest you look at the breakdown of the data so far. To say the “the young turned out en mass demanding free stuff” is pretty clueless and wide of the mark.
http://www.brightoncafe.com/2017/06/10-key-insights-from-uk-election-backed.html
LikeLike
This could be good news!!!
Farage the NEGOTIATOR? DUP pushes for ex-Ukip leader to be given role to protect Brexit
THE Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) wants Nigel Farage to be given a place on Theresa May’s Brexit negotiating team.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/815954/DUP-Nigel-Farage-Ukip-Conservative-Brexit-Theresa-May
LikeLike