In round 1 of the 2017 French parliamentary election, Emanuel Macron’s En March party is set for a Landslide Victory.
French president Emmanuel Macron’s new party, La République En Marche (LREM), is set to take an absolute majority in the national assembly after securing 32.2 per cent of votes in the first round of legislative elections on Sunday. That will translate into a majority of up to 440 seats out of 577 in the assembly in the second round next Sunday.
But Mr. Macron’s second victory, just a month after he became France’s youngest president, was lessened by record abstention of 50.2 per cent. In their reactions, Mr. Macron’s opponents focused on the high abstention rate and pleaded with to supporters to mobilize strongly over the coming week.
The extreme right-wing Front National (FN), whose figurehead Marine Le Pen won 34 percent of the vote in the presidential run-off on May 7th, won only 14 percent of the vote on Sunday, which will give the party between three and 10 seats in the National Assembly.
Francois Baroin, who is leading LR’s legislative campaign, noted that abstention has never been so high since the foundation of the Fifth Republic in 1958. LR won 21.5 percent of the vote on Sunday, which will translate to between 85 and 125 seats in the assembly.
Untangling the Promises
Macron wants numerous things that are are going to cause huge problems elsewhere.
- Macron wants a common European budget and Eurobonds. Both are non-starters with Germany.
- He supports intervention in Syria, a huge policy error.
- He wants to get rid of 120,000 to 500,000 public jobs. That’s a good start, but it will have the socialists and unions howling.
- He supports cutting corporate taxes, also a good idea, but that too will have the progressives howling.
- Macron proposes a $54 billion stimulus package of which $16 billion will go to green ideas. Stimulus packages waste money.
Round Two
All we have right now are projections. Only candidates who received over 50% of the vote have guaranteed seats in Parliament.
Otherwise, all candidates who received over 12.5% of votes today head for round two next Sunday.
Peak Macron Already?
Can things get much better for Macron? I struggle to see how.
His carefully crafted set of ideas gave something to everyone and also took something away.
Over half the electorate sat things out. Macron won, but can he govern?
That’s what we are going to find out.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
He is the French Tony Blair and his rule will end in disgrace or farce. How long until France’s economy tanks?
http://denariifin.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/the-waning-power-of-monetary-inflation.html
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It has already tanked for the youth, which has 22% unemployment. General unemployment is almost 10%, and if calculated like it is in the US, it’s much worse.
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My niece was reading about the French weasel and mistakenly called him “Macaroni”.
This was probably a more accurate and far more considered analysis than anything we will read in any media outlet.
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The LREM candidates did not exist a month or so back, the positions were put to tender, one fellow was even told he was representing a seat without having tendered himself if I remember.
So you have a flash party appearing with novice representatives taking 15% of the total voting population for 400 of 577 parliamentary seats.
I think it is an incredible feat.
Short of dictatorship, I cannot name when so few have ruled so completely over so many.
The French have taken progress to a new level of efficiency, maybe they will complete the circle and eventually be ruled by no-one.
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Le Pen (crazy as she is) nearly won the election — the panicked last minute rigging of the polls fooled no one. Whether she won or “macaroni” won… France was ungovernable and is now even less governable.
“macaroni” won a rigged election. England won the economy, assuming Theresa May doesn’t screw that up. The EU continues to circle the drain.
“plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” as the French like to say
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Watch, what will come of this travesty. When the people of France realize whats going to happen, they will react quite wildly. It will not be pretty.
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Excuse my tainted attitude but:
1) Low turn-out is a result of the EU – as a UK citizen I can say there feels little point in voting when a country is becoming progressively more integrated into a super-state. Anti-democratic at that. May well be many French feel the same. What’s the point?
2) The EU’s hand is in there somewhere as they are highlighting UK political instability vs expected future French stability. The reason? To get FDI into France and out of the UK.
Good luck to them but a staged stability will be shown up to be such if that is what it is.
A veneer?
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Anyone thinking of adding FDI into France needs to pull the crayons out of their nose and look at the saga of Goodyear owning a French tire factory:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/06/french-workers-bosses-hostage-goodyear-amiens
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That is the type of behaviour Macron is determined to break along with other practices whilst prophesing the labour force needs to be get used to mass migration/immigration.
Mass migration that is likely to weaken the bargaining power of the self-same indigenous labour.
What would you do if you were French and you put 2 + 2 together?
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Macron is not going to do anything. He will be a very weak leader and inconsequential in no time.
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There will simply be no uptick in economic activity. He is a joke.
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I see no evidence that macron is going to break any unions.
He told the unions he is going to break the companies. He told the companies he will break the unions. He told the EU that France is going to pay its bills. He told the French the EU is free of charge. He supports unlimited immigration as well as severe restrictions on immigration.
He is going to collect a very very generous public pension for himself, and that’s about all that will happen.
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I agree.voting in a EU country is beyond a joke.
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> 50% give up the idea their say matters or there is no choice worth making.
What personal stake do they have in supporting Macron, his policies, his government?
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Notice the sudden increase in the no-shows to vote & note it is an ageing population where voting rates could be expected to increase.
2002-2007 – 4% increase approx.
2007-2012 – 3% increase approx.
2012-2017 – 18% increase approx.
Becoming compliant or is it a protest?
The EU’s – “What’s the point?” beginning to seep into the psyche.
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“What’s the point?” is important.
Either the people are fat and happy (I doubt they are) or there’s lack of engagement with a system they see as not on their side or that makes no real difference. People reaching that point won’t take much notice of whomever is in charge.
Macron will need to change that and get engagement.
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“It doesn’t matter who you vote for, a politician always wins” Dunno who said it first but it resonates louder than ever today.
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At sum point, people will decide voting is pointless and something else needs to be done.
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I have to wonder if the number of people voting (quietly) “what’s the point of paying taxes” isn’t growing at least as fast as the no-votes.
In most of the EU (population-wise), tax evasion is the national sport. Certainly it is the sport of Greece and Italy, and arguably Spain and Portugal too. The wealthy of France seem to be on a first name basis with a banker in Monaco or Geneva or both, while the middle class / poor do a lot of transactions on the barter system (and somehow they forget to report it). People all over the EU are already (not) voting with their wallets.
Macron can’t govern France no matter how an absentee vote goes. Anyone who has ever asked a teenager to stop playing video games and take out the trash hears “uh huh”… but the trash sits untouched hours later.
Macron will call for personal sacrifice or better wages or sweaters made of unicorn feathers… the French will all say “uh huh”. Nothing will happen
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if only 49% bother to vote, there is no democracy in France, only apathy and disillusionment with politics. It is clear that France as a country is failing and no longer has any national idenity.
Looks to me like the terrorists won.
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http://ripostelaique.com/un-avant-projet-de-loi-liberticide-en-marche-vers-la-dictature.html
Arbitrary house arrests, forced access to online information and passwords etc. all part of new law project that pushes judicial oversight out of the picture.
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The EU has won, not terrorists.
The French are dissolving into the super-state and are becoming good Europeans.
Sub-consciously realising they have little choice, they disengage.
Macron is a poster child for the type of leader the EU likes and everyone knows it’s pointless to go against the grain. Might as well accept it/him & don’t bother to express any preference. “What’s the point?” For or against it will be him anyway.
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How do you figure the French are dissolving into an EU super state?!?!?!
French voters are just as involved in EU politics (and voting) as they are in French politics and voting. No one cares, no one pays taxes. Everyone hears the authorities yelling to do something / not do something — they smile, they nod, and they continue doing what they were doing before.
“What’s the point?” applies to Brussels as much as to Paris
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The assimilation is deceptive, it does not stop until rejected. You yourself note that there is no differentiation between Brussels and France at a certain level. In many other countries political attrition has led to apathy and subjection.
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Think you may be confusing apathy for acceptance…
At some point, a government needs the active support of its citizenry — I don’t see anyone volunteering to even pay higher taxes much less sacrifice their own children at war.
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Maybe. In the case of this election the French accept a pro-EU president who will push through as much further integration as possible. If low voter turnout is apathy it becomes synonymous with acceptance, and if it is rejection it does not work because he will still occupy the presidency and parliament to make the pro-EU changes.
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The show will obviously play out outside of these elections though, and I don’t know how. My intuition is that Macron will continue promising everything to everyone but do little except concentrate on passing EU integration legislation as if it were a trivial given. He will place the focus on EU, not France…sort of self excusing.
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They will do whatever they can to pull business out of UK and into France.
Already starting with Airbus and Galileo.
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No doubt the French will try to take business away from UK … but it will be limited to GSEs (its not just the Chinese who have these pseudo corporations). Airbus is not a real company, it is officially a glob of government goo. Boeing might be a GSE also, but they go through the pretenses of being a private company — Airbus does not.
I doubt France has enough stuff worth arguing about — and I know (as in I am certain) that there are LOTS of companies waiting to replace French companies in UK. As for UK stuff in France (outside of GSE “work”) — not sure it matters if the French buy Unilever products or Nestle or P&G, none of those are French.
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Macron, like the election in Britain, will only give the establishment an excuse NOT to change their evil, self-destructive ways, which insures the economic reset, that hits the fan in 2018, will be made worse.
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Socialist France is Venezuela without the oil.
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It’s not a landslide – it is the Macron Tsunami :))
His young party founded last year (!!) will achieve the absolute majority and according to latest estimates will send 400 REM-delegates to the 577 seat parliament. Radical reforms are now possible. Front National (“Le Pen”) will stay below 15 seats – which means she will disappear soon. Started already to complain – sour loser.
Merkel & Macron – must be the letter M (=water LOL)
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It’s not a tsunami: it’s a bunch of folks that aren’t sure what they voting for. Due to the main stream media telling them Le Pen was Attila the Hun, they voted out of fear. They will soon realize Macron’s plan and simply revolt.
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How can it be representative democracy when the voters can’t be bothered to turn out to exhibit affirmation?
More like “not in my name.”
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US saw around 58% vs 50% in France – so what?The real fun are the sour grapes by the loosers in the France election led by tiny Le Pen – cry me a river. A lot of unemployed carreer politicians overnight. I love it. Too young, no party, impossible that he can win – and he did.
That’s democracy in action.
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I love all the old white men crying about the lack of participation in the French election blah blah blah. They all forget that half of Americans did not bother to vote and their messiah Trump was elected with 25% of the electorate.
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Blah blah blah.
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I doubt most who voted for him saw him as the “Messiah”. We saw him as simply not Hillary or establishment Washington. Most Americans don’t vote any more, with the exception, perhaps, of Presidential races. Hell, local NYC elections are lucky to see30% voter turnout.
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Most of them did and do see him as a Messianic figure. In fact if Trump asked his supporters to kill their children or burn down their houses most of them would do so in a heartbeat. There is really nothing he could do which would diminish their faith in him.
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?
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John Smith is the new ID for HT or Phil… just an annoying George Soros click slave making stupid comments.
Bypass the middle man and send your complaints directly to Soros — better yet, put Soros the financial supporter of terrorism into prison like the other terrorist backers
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It’s a scandal that with just a 7% bigger share of the vote the LR gets 10x the number of seats of the FN. I know this is not a proportional system but the discrepancy is huge.
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Would you feel disenfranchised in that case?
Liberal Left would be in the streets.
Think of it, perhaps some FN stayed at home at the risk of being called racist so the difference is < 7%. Self-loathing instilled by media and Government. Suppressing their expression.
Macron wins, but when he rolls out changes the subdued FN side can then resist as racism cannot be used as a stick to beat them with. That is their chance to express their choice.
I would bide my time if I were them and let my choice be known when Macron comes calling.
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You have witnessed one of the greatest political cons of all time is my guess.
If you are party that has less than 10% approval, how do you survive and continue to rule? If you are in France, you create a new second party with new candidates that have plausible “independence”. It doesn’t cost your party’s legislative members their jobs because they were lost anyway because of the low approval ratings. The only other thing that had to be done was knee-cap the Republican candidate for president before the prelim round with a scandal investigation to ensure that he didn’t make to the runoff. Once Macron won, the legislative campaigns can use that win to give the new, but undercover Socialists a chance to win, which it appears is going to happen. If Macron ends up with a majority, he will quietly back away from all the campaign promises that look market and business friendly and govern as the Socialist he was just 18 months ago. I suspect the Socialist party will disband and become En Marche by default.
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Yes, it is quite incredible, ranks above Syriza backing out on their pledges, which was clear cut treachery. Look through history where you have this sort of political nonsense going on and you find that often it is forerunner to negative events. It represents an extreme political social disconection.
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