Another decline in import and export prices will likely have the Fed pulling its hair out. A pair of charts will explain why.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Price
Crude is in a bear market, down about 22% since the December high. Price is lower in four consecutive months and five out of the last six.
On June 15, I reported Import Prices Dip, Export Prices Plunge.
Let’s explore the import/export price relationship to crude.
Import and Export Price Indexes vs. Crude
Don’t be confused by the Fred titles that say “all commodities”.
The BLS says Import/Export Price Indexes contain “data on changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.”
Popular Reasons Not to Worry
- It’s transitory
- Kudlow says “Lower oil prices are unambiguously good for US economy”
- What people don’t spend on gasoline, they will spend elsewhere
- We have plenty of inflation elsewhere
- More QE baby! Bring it on!
- All of the above
Mike “Mish” Shedlock