In Europe, where it is essentially taboo to publicly discuss anything deemed politically incorrect, some interesting conversations are taking place in the Italian parliament regarding the future of Italy in the eurozone.
Via email, Eurointelligence asks Is Italy heading for debt restructuring or euro exit?
We are reporting from an important conference in Rome yesterday that has caught the Italian news headlines this morning – on the future of Italian public debt. It was organized by the Five Star Movement, held in the Italian chamber of deputies, and openly discussed issues such default mechanism inside the eurozone, sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms, parallel payment systems, and of course euro exit.
What is important about this debate is that it is now taking place in public – you can’t be more public than inside the parliament. Italians, not only the Five Star Movement, are openly talking about these issues.
One of us was on the podium, where we reiterated our criticism of the Five Star Movement’s previous-held cavalier notion of a euro referendum. The essential point we were trying to make in the debate, well reflected in this morning’s coverage by the main newspapers, is that euro exit is not a decision to be taken lightly. The announcement of a referendum would produce a financial crisis and might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Euro exit belongs to the category of things that, citing Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “if it were done when ‘tis done, then ‘twere well It were done quickly“.
What struck us about this event was the sheer political leverage. Luigi di Maio, the presumptive Five Star candidate for the job of prime minister, seemed to distance himself from supporting euro exit. He sat through the entire 12-hour marathon of discussions. Beppe Grillo and Davide Casaleggio made short appearances. It was very clear that the Five Star Movement is now aggressively tackling the topic of Italy’s future in the eurozone, which is likely to become a major election issue. It also raises questions, as some Italian commentators did this morning, about possible coalition choices for the party if it adopts a more nuanced position on the euro.
A lot of space was given to a discussion on fiscal money – coupons issued by the state to people for use in tax payments. We recall that Yanis Varoufakis worked on a similar scheme for Greece, and one of his advisers at the time gave some details of how such a scheme can be made to work and why it did not work in Greece. The answer is that it requires an extraordinary degree of technical and logistical preparation that is outside the scope of what most governments are physically capable of.
Conferences such as these never reach consensus, but they bring up questions. One of the questions on fiscal money is whether it is sustainable or merely transitional. Is it just an instrument through which a country transitions to a new currency, or just a short-term liquidity measure, or can it work as a supplemental form of money?
Another discussion that struck us was a paper by Alberto Bagnai and Brigitte Granville, who did a stochastic simulation of the costs of euro exit. They noted that there would be an initial cost but that strong counter-cyclical growth would soon resume. The problem with this simulation is that it does not take sufficiently into account the multiple financial shocks that are likely to be dominant during such a phase. Euro exit would do major damage to the financial system both of Italy and the eurozone. The authors have a variable that includes a banking crisis, but we do not think this does justice to the financial Armageddon we are likely to see after an Italian euro exit.
And finally, we noted a comment by Heiner Flassbeck, formerly at the German finance ministry and Unctad, who noted that there can be no solution to the eurozone’s persistent crisis unless one insists on symmetric adjustment in the eurozone. He advocates the strategy that Italy should make a credible threat to leave the eurozone in order to force a German policy shift.
Path Towards Italeave
I have noted before that all of Italy’s major political parties with the exception of Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party have flirted with or actively support leaving the Euro.
The path to Italeave is a difficult one, requiring a referendum and a constitutional change, but trouble is brewing on a huge number of fronts simultaneously:
- The Italian banking system is insolvent
- Another refugee crisis is brewing (this time via boats from Libya)
- Italy’s youth unemployment is a whopping 37%
- The ECB is the buyer of only resort for Italian bonds
- Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is over 130% to the consternation of Eurozone officials
- The global recovery is extremely long in the tooth
- Italy made no progress during the recovery
- The topic of Italeave is no longer taboo
Any number of things could start a chain reaction making Italeave look good to a majority of Italian voters.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Waste of time thinking this through.
After the German elections expect fast track integration with Germany on side.
Helmet Kohls funeral was a catalyst in the mind of some German upper echelons to move to the next level of “solidarity” once Merkel is reconfirmed.
Add to that, Italy is scared stiff of exit. The fear is palpable in many ordinary people I have spoken too. Italy no longer has any balls. Perhaps for the best that it doesn’t.
Either way they won’t leave and Germany will act before it happens.
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Weak countries will be crushed into Integration. It’s a one way Street once in the Euro. Integrate, not disintegrate. That was the WHOLE PURPOSE of forming the EURO.
Italy is stuck and will give up more control and sovereignty to get out of its hole. It won’t get out through its own efforts and certainly doesn’t have the will to leave.
Years ago it was predicted states such as Italy would suffer, particularly the people on the receiving end. The attitude of the ruling elite at the time was that the human price in unemployment etc was worth it for the greater goal of European Integration.
People involved in the conversations reported so. Listen to Lord David Owens Brexit speeches. He was in there with the architects.
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if the Italians want to continue to suffer in the under the cosh of germany then remain. yes Italexit may mean short term pain but long term gain. varoufakis was correct – take back control of your money i.e. ditch the euro and issue Italian lira then convert ALL euro denominated loans under eu jurisdictional law to Italian lira on a 1:1 basis then crash the lira.
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In financial terms Italy is a German colony. Bundesbank has put € 420 bn into Italian banks to keep them afloat. But that won´t solve the € 450 bn NPL problem.
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They will just keep sinking more money in in return for having an ever more dependent client state. I really see no alternative to full integration as the Italians will do whatever it takes to avoid the intense pain of separation.
Options are intense pain for a while and re-build or nagging pain over years as they are ground down slowly.
They will take the slow nagging pain that falls into the hands of the internationalists.
They do however have shed loads of gold that might offer some help if they bite the bullet.
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should read “integrationallsts” not “internationalists”.
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Rumors have it the new Italian currency will not be named lira but confetti. All deposits will be confetti and poverty a fact. Italian govt debt is under Italian og British law. If the latter Italy will be stuck with huge euro denominated debt.
Regardless, exit or not, serious problems will create suffering in Italy.
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I wouldn’t be too confident of that Fish. Germany will not risk being an equal partner in an integrated Europe, never mind the hype or hypocrisy they spout. Integration will only occur when Germany is certain, not confident, not hopeful, but certain that she will have a permanent economic and political whip hand. Effectively only a German dictatorship will provide that, couched in whatever diplomatic babble you like, that is what is the reality. It may well be that the political classes in the likes of Italy will grow so craven to accept that, but would the wider public, would the rest of Europe?
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Peter, yes, would agree there and think various populations would agree to it too as they give up on their own politicians and leaders.
French? Not so sure. Macron probably would. French people playing 2nd fiddle to a German overlord?
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the EU/Euro led to another conflict?
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Meaning to say they are all the proverbial frogs who are going to be boiled slowly. It is the best deal for the spineless
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Which means that Germany will go down with the ship, because southern Europe is strangling under the Euro. Note that German families are already the second poorest in Europe….
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It’s not a ship – it’s a convoy.
If enough weak ships sink from the rear of the convoy, the lead ship (DE) will split away and chart it’s own course.
DE will not “go down with the ship”. DE will align itself w/ Russia & eastern europe while the rest of europe burns.
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Correction: the crazy Eurosystem allows the Banco d’Italia to “help herself” to unlimited funds. No application (which might be declined) needed, just leave an I.O.U. @ 0.75% behind.
This is now the Bundesbank’s issue, as her reserves could not cover a 10% or 42 bn € write-off. Let alone the total “ASSETS” which are true liabilities when it comes to settling the mess.
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It’s a tough pill to swallow. But same disease that Athen feels, is looming over Rome. The Italians see Macron, and the arrogance that follows the election. Britain still breaths, and lives choose their own destiny. For the sake of the Italians, I hope this is not posturing. Choose life, and liberty.
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Yes, but the UK must be seen to suffer else the fence around the camp will be a that little bit lower and the barbed wire that little more blunt.
Some mindsets never change. Rememebr “Might is right” were uttered by one person recently deceased.
The mindset hasn’t changed, just the flag and the method used to achieve the ends.
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To me it seems, Germany and France are committed to forming a EU state where they would rule in coalition. This topic has resurfaced again in recent days.
I believe strongly that all this will fall apart at some stage. I hope it will be sooner than later. Never mind the cost. The cost has already taken the futures of our youth. They don’t have a future or a steady job at the moment and it’s all due to the EU.
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Only hope is the ballot box but look at French turn-out and the Germans given zero choice as all candidates face the same way.
Rise of alternatives is needed and that is not necessarily LePen or AFD. Something else is needed and quickly.
I see no alternative and this is heading to EU Federalism that wishes to be a superpower.
A real aim is to de-seat the US. That is no joke and the US is sleep walking.
EU now has a larger market, it want military power too. They have said so, clearly.
People, individuals, don’t matter. This is seen through the way they have gone about starting and defending the Euro. The project comes first, everything in its way much be ground down.
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LOL.
There is ZERO chance of the EU to “de-seat” the US.
EU wants their own military/defense? Who will pay for it? Who will lead it? LOL.
Fish – mon ami – you are dreaming. The EU is ALL TALK, NO ACTION.
No alternative? The UK (and Iceland) have already PROVEN the alternative – have you been asleep for the past 8 years?
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Iceland want to join EU don’t they?
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Not sure I agree there, I don’t see anyone wanting military power (or more accurately pay for it)(except some eastern EU countries). Yes the Commission and the Drunk have stated they do; simply a ploy to extract more power and keep the EU structure dragging along making dismembering more difficult/painful. The French may agree only because they would de-facto lead any new EU-level Military setup. (or more accurately a reallocated motley-crew.)
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I’ll correct that for you:
It is all due to governments, and those that encouraged or accepted , selling out their nations.
The sooner people stop referencing EU as responsible, which it has shown itself not to be, the sooner they will stand up and assume responsibility for their own affairs.
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You forgot one Mish:
9. Italy’s neighbours are sealing the borders.
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You forgot one Mish:
9. Italy’s neighbours are sealing the borders.
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Sovereignty once lost is hard to regain. Lose your currency, and you are at the mercy of the EU Emperor in Berlin or Brussels. UK preserved its sovereignty option by keeping its currency. Italian politicians have long been a joke, hot air and grandiose talk. Leaving the EU or euro would deprive Italian politicians of a scapegoat, and then Italian politicians would have to accept blame. Cowardice will rule the day, as Italy’s courageous class is long gone.
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All peripheral nations are lost – that includes Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the more recent joiners.
They have taken the 30 pieces of silver in exchange for what they believe will be an easier economic life.
Domestic politicians will sell sovereignty for an easier ride on their watch. Beware politicians that choice the easy path now with the price to be paid later.
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Please explain how national sovereignty has a “price to be paid later”.
The Iceland experience flys against your premise here. The PIIGS have everything to gain & nothing to lose by leaving the EU. If I am wrong, then please explain how/why I am wrong.
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Think Fish meant selling national sovereignty…
What the PIIGS have to lose though, is in the immediate. Their houses are out of order, their systems rely on trade from north. None of them are able to guarantee any kind of economic continuity if they exit. My view is that that is a small price, but you will have trouble convincing those that already have precarity BUT still rely on existing format to make ends meet, that it is worth leaving. Many are sold hook line and sinker into a future in EU, not emotionally, just financially.
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The Role of Austerity in the EU Constitution and its enforcement through the ECB and The EU Commission is little understood in the EU. Both the Populations and the Politicians are still Largely Ignorant of FIAT Money and the Money Creation process under FIAT Money Regimes.
Post the Brexit Referendum, Jean-Claude Junker published the Five Presidents report, it was little help with the problem of the impossibility of a single Speed Europe. A Federated ECB actually honouring the important democratic concept of Subsidiarity could help with the Italian Crisis and the evolving storms in other of the PIIGS nations.
“” Responsible national fiscal policies are therefore
essential. They must perform a double function:
guaranteeing that public debt is sustainable and
ensuring that fiscal automatic stabilisers can operate to
cushion country-specific economic shocks. If this is not
the case, downturns are likely to last longer in individual
countries, which in turn affects the whole euro area.
But this is not enough. It is important to ensure also
that the sum of national budget balances leads to an
appropriate fiscal stance(5) at the level of the euro area
as a whole. This is key to avoiding pro-cyclical fiscal
policies at all times.“`
This and similar Banalities pepper Junkers 5 Presidents Report and The Reality of the Anti-Democratic voodoo Political economy ideologues of the EU “Elites” is lost on the Euro Leadership blinded by Confirmation biases as they are.
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/02/meet-fuggers-brexit-euro-and-clueless.html
Speculation that all EU countries will have to Join the Euro Zone and currency by 2022 is currently increasing, I am based in Sweden and Swedes understand that The Kroner has been important to avoid the problems which The Finnish have experience economically. The Finns are presently trying Universal Basic Income on a trial, of course, the ECB monetary creation system will doom that project to failure within the ECB/EU Fiscal Rules.
Gordon Brown before the UK Election floated the Idea of a Federated Pound Stirling, This makes sense and could save the Union with Scotland And Ireland and would be very good as well for the Welsh Economy. The Subtleties of Gordon Brown’s ideas do deserve a little closer study, It remains to be seen whether “The End of Boom and Bust Chancellor” has actually fully appreciated the many benefits that could flow economically to the regions of the UK. The Eurocrats should similarly take note.
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/03/a-fedearated-pound-striling-and.html
This BBC Produced post-Brexit Documentary looks at the Five Star movement in Italy and the Maker shows the total denial and ignorance of the EUliterati to the failure of their Project for ordinary people.
The EU has become an Idiocracy, run by Idiots for Idiots and The populations particularly of France and Germany have been propagandised into the sort of Stupor that Sees, Macron Elected ( A Corporate Stooge) and Merkel Riding High in the Opinion Polls.
Soros Has been briefing against Brexit, he will not be long from the scene in Italy,
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/06/a-response-to-george-soros-on-his-eu.html
The Chief Idiot of the EU Idiocracy, Verhofstad, Is He the EU´s Worse enemy?
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/07/the-chief-idiot-of-eu-idiocracy.html
The Maastricht Treaty and The Enlargement of the EU were Europes NAFTA. As with The US and Donald Trump saying no more of this race to the bottom madness, The same phenomenon of Fly Over Europe is occurring. The UK has set an example with Brexit, Followed by the US with Donald Trump and Again continued with the WIthdawal of Mrs Mays Mandate by the electorate in the 2017 Election.
The EU Elites and Elsewhere fear that Corbyn and Labour 2017 is some sort of throwback to the 70´s ( a period of history hugely misrepresented in the Text Books, which like the Economics texts are wrong) What I think is happening is that The Labour Party 2017 Consensus is a Post-Capitalist/Socialism Paradigm Shift To A New Political and Economic Reality applying the old Media and institutional models to the 21st Century simply do not work as Technology has transformed the economic potential of the Global Economy. It’s the Debt based model ultimately failing to see the necessary Fiscal nourishment being delivered to the Roots of Community where all wealth Stems from. With something as new and undocumented
and with the intellectual Paucity of the corrupt Political and Corporate classes, Bourne of Crony Capitalism is it any wonder that The present situation is as precarious as it is.
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/07/labours-right-wing-draws-up-new-plan-to.html
So the scene is set, the Article here Quotes Shakespeare.
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/04/timonism-calvanist-strain-in-neo.html
“Who seeks for better of thee, sauce his palate
With thy most operant poison! What is here?
Gold? yellow, glittering, precious gold? No, gods,
I am no idle votarist: roots, you clear heavens!
Thus much of this will make black white, foul fair,
Wrong right, base noble, old young, coward valiant.
Ha, you gods! why this? what this, you gods? Why this
Will lug your priests and servants from your sides,
Pluck stout men’s pillows from below their heads:
This yellow slave
Will knit and break religions, bless the accursed,
Make the hoar leprosy adored, place thieves
And give them title, knee and approbation
With senators on the bench: this is it
That makes the wappen’d widow wed again;”
― William Shakespeare, Timon of Athens
Enough of the EU Timonism already.
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/06/uk-general-election-2017-top-of-bill.html
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Interesting, thank you.
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They don’t have the navy to turn back all the migrant boats hitting their shores, and they actually have become quite addicted to the EU funds they get for resettling the folks who spill off of them. The only thing that truly annoys the Italian government is that other parts of Europe won’t do “their part” by taking the flotsam and jetsam off their hands, and as long as there is an EU, there is hope that the collective will will be imposed on those intransigant states.
Italy is going nowhere.
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Once in Europe there are no borders as such. People go where they can get to.
Some Sicilian politicians congratulate themselves on the welcome they offer but one reason is the arrivals don’t want to stop there. Many arriving in Sicily have no intention of remaining there.
Many in Italy call Sicily the Africa of Europe.
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Truth be told tptb want the migrants as European Demographics are terrible in Italy, Spain, Germany etc. They see themselves heading the way of Japan unless they get more heads in.
If protectionist barriers in Europe were brought down and money went where it can help poorer countries to develop their agriculture to help feed Europe (instead of protecting French, Spanish and Italian farmers etc) there would be some hope in more parts. Some of the migrant pressures would subside.
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Hold on there, Fish.
A lot of hard work went into erecting those barriers and it sounds like you want those folks to have to compete for market share in Europe. Don’t you realize those folks are Europeans? There must be way to protect them and their crops like we do here in the US.
sarc /off
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Just get ADM to start shipping even more corn and high-fructose corn-syrup and Monsanto to ship more Roundup TM to Africa … within a generation they will be impotent and fat and dying of first-world diseases like the rest of us.
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Reblogged this on MUSO MUSINGS ON FATHERHOOD THEORY AND STUFF and commented:
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/07/italy-leaving-eu-wake-up-junker-your.html
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Excuse me, Italexit doesn’t need referendum nor costitutional change, Quite the contrary, having even a non-binding referendum on foreign policy would entail a costitutional change.
To leave euro, the Government only need to make a declaration and a decree…and the Eu can do absolutely nothing to stop it.
To leave the Eu, whether by article 50 or by Vienna Convention, the Government just need a deliberation of the Cabinet.
The Italian Constitution give the Government total leave to terminate treaties, it doesn’t even need the permission of the Parliament.
The real difficulty is having a eurosceptic government.
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Thank you, didn’t know that might be the case.
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Italy like Greece will not have the courage or gumption to leave the Euro so it too will live on its knees, trading sovereignty for subsidies and comforted by the illusion it remains belonging to something worthwhile and enduring.
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well put.
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The weak are so weak they don’t have the energy to leave.
But it makes you wonder why Finland keeps clinging to this nonsense. They ought to get out before the German-French-Turk Axis gets more of a foothold.
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Spend more than you earn = despair
Spend less than you earn = happiness
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Happy wife, happy life.
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Spend less than you earn = stronger currency.
Except for Germany in the Euro so they get to earn more still whilst others help weaken the €.
Lump all EU denominated sovereign debt and have central spending control.
Then, allocate resources on the basis of need and contributions on basis of earnings.
Suddenly, Germany will be lucky to spend >= earned and unhappy.
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Spend <= earned.
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Remember was Hamilton achieved?
Virginia = Germany
New England States = Greece, Spain, Italy
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So you are saying Germany is condemned to support the Union to which it has yoked itself?
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Sounds like a good idea.
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There are frighteningly extreme imbalances. Transfer payments (=welfare) forever, or else, the €-Zone will blow up, bankrupting Germany and 2 other creditors via the mad Eurosystem (TARGET 2) instantly. As Italy won’t repay the 400 bn € it has borrowed on demand.
Politicians don’t talk about this at all. The Telegraph (UK) ran an article many months ago. Search for “Target 2 + Hans-Werner Sinn” on Youtube.
A friend of Mish contributed to an article in the past. Lars? Forgot his name.
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It is entirely possible that Italy would suffer the same fate as Greece.
The Germans could continue to pump in money into Italy to keep it politically afloat while requiring more austerity and take over of key Italian assets if necessary. Thus Italy’s sovereignty will vanish and they would merely become a vassal state of Germany just as Greece presently is.
The only way this can be averted is that there is a backlash against Germany by southern European states or Merkel the Globalist loses power (both currently a low probability). Yet another way is that the Italians have a referendum and the results indicate that the population wants an out of the Eurozone. That outcome is also currently improbable because there is a lot of pain involved in unraveling from the Eurozone as seen during BREXIT. This will be used to scare away people who want to leave. (Remember that Britain is a far greater economic force than Italy and even Britain has lots of forces tugging in the opposite direction thanks to the globalists).
However, if all Southern European countries, reach the point of collapse simultaneously, which could occur if there is a global meltdown of the bond market, there is a strong probability that the Eurozone experiment could fail. Germany would be overwhelmed at this point because it too has a lot of financial skeletons in its closets and would not be able to cope with supporting so many states including itself and it’s million “refugees” who are a drag on their economy.
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We are a net contributor to Eu. They aren’t pumping any money into Italy.
Only thing we cannot afford is the euro.
It will end this way: America will lose patience with Germany trade imbalance and it will crush the euro. Without firing a shot, as it already owns Europe and its leaders.
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No exit for Germany also.
They are glued to the other members of the Euro.
They sink or swim together, talk of exits is fanciful.
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You will be proven very wrong here…
There will be exits aplenty. Not only will DE exit the Euro, but they (Germany) may be first in line to leave…
Why would DE allow itself to be the bagholder as weaker EU states fail? They won’t, as they’ve proven in the “negotiations” with Greece. If the Club Med states cannot follow german fiscal terms, DE will walk away. Ultimately, germans are rational, not irrational.
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The mistake you are making is to assume that Rational Economic Man (or Woman, as you like it) will prevail; we are in the realm of politics, where rationality goes out the window, and where even the women feel a need to see who has the BSD.
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i will wager on GERMAN rationality every day & twice on sunday.
EU-imposed irrationality is being exposed, not “sold”… the gig is up.
Brexit, Trump… ItaLeave… “rational” is in the ascendancy for the first time in 70 years.
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relative to the hyperbolic predictions of Armageddon, Brexit has been largely painless.
the Brexit experience will certainly NOT discourage other states to leave… quite the opposite – Brexit is emboldening the citizens of EU vassal states.
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As a pro-UK, UK resident, I can say Brexit hasn’t hit yet.
It will and stimulus will be needed, lags in what happens on the ground vs date of an action.
I hope I’m wrong but I think we have some pain on the way & UK will become poorer than it otherwise would have been.
As one sensible commentator put it: “There’s a chance the UK will be smaller but potentially better formed.”
Its the “better formed” I hope for as EU membership help bend the UK out of shape.
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Now that Austria has sent troops to Italy’s border to essentially reintroduce border controls and block immigrants from Italy from gaining entry into Austria, I would think that discussing sovereign debt will not be the crisis so many predict. With Austria blocking immigrants path into Germany, the crush at the French border may prove Le Pen’s case and cause voter’s remorse. The other problem is that not all immigrants leave for other countries and thus the choke point at the French border will likely result in many immigrants staying in Italy on a more permanent basis and further drag down that economy. Given the amount of corruption in Italian culture that represents both public and private life, the Germans may find their slaves hard to manage. The French, on the other hand, have long become inured to the idea that government solves all problems and the bigger the better. They conflate Liberte, Fraternite, and Equalite with a creeping socialism that provides all until it doesn’t. The embrace by the elitist government (and it is run by elites from the elite schools) on immigrants who show little appreciation for the glory of France and who see no benefit to social or economic integration into the French society or culture is likely to set off another revolution that will upend the Fifth Republic. But that is another discussion.
Italy is already divided between north and south. The north is industrialized, has excellent farming country, and excellent wines. The south has little industry, poor worn out soil and a great deal of poverty as well as poor wine. The north has always talked about becoming their own country to the exclusion of the south. They resent that so much of their productivity flows to the south in the form of welfare which is often wasted in their eyes. But Italy has always been unstable throughout the centuries, why should re expect any stability now? Will Five Star be an improvement as political movements go? No, it offers little that would make Italy great again. For that we must go back to the time of the Roman Empire, not going to happen. Will Italy stay in the euro and the EU? Only if someone else pays them to stay. The Irony is that keeping both Italy and Greece in the EU make as much sense as keeping old cows who produce little or no milk in your dairy herd. If Italy were to exit from the euro and the EU, it might become solvent in ten or twenty years. But unlike the Brits, the debt structure within Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Austria, and a few other is so intertwine that default by one greatly affects the others. The euro, the ECB, and the EU banking system is built on a foundation of sand.
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Even if the North splits away it will stay in the EU as will the remainder of Italy.
Both will share the Euro with no Borders.
Both will ultimately come under centralised fiscal control.
Therefore – MAKES NO DIFFERENCE if the North splits.
Northern League is finished as are other separatist groups in the EU sharing the Euro.
One day the penny will drop. If you want full regional control the party needs to dump the Euro and leave the EU too.
Another idea killed by the EU and Euro.
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Looking at the history of Italy, the only part that had any economic power was the north. If Italy had been smart they would have left Naples to the British, wouldn’t that have been a bitch. Sicily should have been given back to the Moors for all the good the Mafia has done the country. About the only thing the fascist did right was to round up the Mafia and put them in jail. Actually extermination would have been the proper course of action. But the introduction of the immigrants does not speak in Italy’s favor. If anything, such populations make for a far more unstable political and economic situation. So between several corrupt government parties, the Mafia, the southern poor, the business interest in the north, the immigrants, and the many other disenchanted souls that represent Italy, it will, most likely fall into some anarchy of action. the Pope, as committed to revolutionary theological dogma as he is will not be able to lend much influence. for all intent and purposes, Italy will once again become a third world country or countries.
At least the Greeks have a slim to none chance of freeing themselves from the tyranny of the EU. You may be right, Italy may have no chance at all unless they are kicked out. Usually the old dried up milk cow is sent to the slaughterhouse.
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Excuse me, I understand Italian politics may be confusing for foreigners, but
Northern League has recovered a lot with the leadership of Mr Salvini: it’s currently the third party, after PD and M5S. With 14%, it’s at its all-time high.
The catch is that Salvini is moving away from Northern separatism towards Italian nationalism (they opened a southern branch, “Noi con Salvini”), in a Le Pen-like fashion. It’s also strong eurosceptic and supports leaving the euro.
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The end game is Germany will control Europe. Maybe not Great Britain. Once Germany is in control, the rest of Europe will lose their free ride. It will be like Germany won WWII. The US and Russia won’t rescue them this time. The refugees will rue the day they came to Europe.
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That is an interesting supposition. I have my doubts the German (pick your number) Reich will come about as you believe. First, I would believe that Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary will revolt and leave the EU. When it comes to sovereign debt instruments, they own the least amount of other EU countries debt. Germany and France own quite sizable stakes in the other countries debt issues. Second, Germany has been producing at an artificially low cost (labor costs) than France or the other economies and have run up sizable positive current accounts. But that trade surplus comes at a cost of indebtedness of the other trading partners. The problem with large trade surpluses is that if you don’t collect the currency for what you sell, then you have a problem. Accepting dept as payment is not the same as accepting cash. Third, socialism is rearing its ugly head and will eventually bankrupt most of Europe. The migrants become a financial liability that depends on those work earn incomes that support all the freeloaders. Fourth, Europe, including Germany and France are looking to trade with China to pull them out of the economic doldrums. But China has no plans to become the consumer goods engine that keeps Germany and the rest rich. Instead, China is counting on Europe to become its consumer consumption source of income. Finally, the EU is not as stable as many would believe. The only way the EU can work is through complete political control from the top and trying to get thirty two countries to give up their sovereignty for the good of the EU state is unlikely to happen. Not all nation members have fallen under the spell of a super national socialism state. The way forward is not clear or clean.
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Some would have it that Germany just wants to dissapear into Europe, and by any means. The continuity of power is searched for at a higher level than nation, or USEU even, i.e. at a financial and corporate level. This has been a line of pursuit for over a hundred years.
Thing is, most Europeans don’t want dirty sex with mutter Merkel or her guests, Germany will implode (again) and France will do its bit to help that.
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I think part of the German problem is psychological in that in order to avoid their Nazi past they have had to go through a great deal of repression and denial, whether it be east or west Germany. Hence, they are almost schizophrenic in their political culture. Maybe the problem is the old Niche (spelling) “Loss of Will”.
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Loss of identity maybe, like not having a rounded and open ego due to the above. Politics and technique cannot replace a part of character that is so widely present and displayed in almost all other societies that it must be natural.
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I have not read very widely or deeply into the post war years of Germany. Most of those years get glossed over in most history books. But from what I understand, the big four powers who carved out their pieces of Germany to “guard” over the five to ten year period were not exactly liberators to the civilians. Indeed, most Germans were treated as prisoners of war and political prisoners who needed harsh treatment. Infant mortality during those early years was horrific. In essence we were beating the Nazi shit out of them. Hence my allusion to a collective mental problem for the population. And yet, in the name of democracy we led them to socialism. The irony is almost too much. I think it possible that the immigration crisis, and it is fast becoming a crisis, will provoke a need for another “iron” leader and a fascist style government. After all, what choice will the people have? France is a slightly different case. They shall have to adopt the Foreign Legion motto, March or Die.
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Germany will end up in complete control. It won’t be done intentionally.It’s a logical outcome. Either do as they say or you starve. It will be like what’s happened in Greece on a larger scale. It will be different than the past. Their power will be economic. Not Militaristic.
Charity works for a short while. Until you realize you’re being taken advantage of.
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The militaristic, down to the local police, will be there to defend the new economic and legislative structure. Look at civil wars though, they occur when the authority is challenged, where there are divisions of loyalty in the military and society. I don’t think the EU project will go unchallenged, its leaders will be forced to publicly display their nature.
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You could be right. On the other hand, economic power only comes when one has the money, so to speak. Debt is not money. Hence Germany’s problem is if no one can actually pay for the mercedes except by sub par loans, then Germany hasn’t made a pfarthing on the car.
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“It won’t be done intentionally.”
Facebook was created once Mark Zuckerberg got fed up with not having a platform on which to rate physical appearance of Harvard’s female student population. Now he’s flying drones over desolate areas of Earth, alleging to be offering internet access to the starving masses his drones encounter there.
I’m wary of what people claim as their intentions.
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Michael Heseltine (UK Tory Grandee and major pro-EU voice) has said Germany has now won WWII as Brexit occurs.
He is pro-EU so that tells you something.
It is commonly thought Germany now rules by pulling the strings.
Smaller countries better do as told or have their money used as a control. Talk of that has already started.
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What he is really trying to say is that new liberal political direction in the UK is a failure, and that started well before WW2. The UK has spent over a century tying itself into European affairs, shedding notions of nation the whole way along, losing its independence and stature.
And when the population turn around and say ‘enough’, all he can say is ‘we lost’ ?
Fortunately many do not share his point of view, as it only hides the changes needed in the UK, and the possibilities that are there for the taking, once distanced from the restrictions of EU.
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British nationality evolved from post conquest law, where all born there were subjects. Laws were introduced to guarantee heritance by descent alone to royalty and those in close legiance, culminating in an act by Queen Anne after union granting natural-born status to all descendents of the British, in 1708, in perpetuity. So the alineation in law between rulers and subjects was consumed.
Around 1850 naturalization, citizenship to those not born in the UK nor of British descent, was introduced.
In 1914, not due to WW1 as was part of decade old Empire Conference, the act by Queen Anne was repealed, the door was closed on Commonwealth preference, entente was struck with France drawing UK into WW1, later the lords lost their vetoe of parliament. Policy has continued liberal since, immigration, ties to Europe, spending, royalty playing its part in that direction… Windsor is a renaming of German lineage post war, definitions of right to abode created to suit EEC labour in ’71, closing out Commonwealth further, further limiting nationality by descent.
The “pact” with the “British” is broken, they have become a post modern definition of Whitehall, to the distaste of many, especially those who have had this realised to them.
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Italy belongs in the same bucket with Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Chicago, Greece, and France. Zimbabwe plays the end game. North European culture may be on to something.
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A return to the lira would bail out bankers, but would be a disaster for the average Italian. It would basically be bankers confiscating stuff from Italians for redistribution to bankers. Europe needs sensible bankers, not decades of endless bank bailouts via the printing press.
Turkey solved their refugee crisis by clearing safe areas just over the Syrian border, and sending Syrians back. Turkey helped organize local militia to protect the refugees in Syria. Law enforcement can do orderly background checks on applicants for citizenship. Europe’s strategy of letting random refugees wander around freely has led to terrorist attacks and disrespect of Euro women. There are nice refugees and bad refugees both coming across the border, with no way for law enforcement to quickly figure out who is who. Refugees make no organized attempt to police their own ranks, and control the bad guys.
NATO can only reasonably solve the refugee crisis by setting up safe areas inside Libya and Syria for the refugees. Bankers printed food inflation that led to Mid East tribes marching on the oil mines, in an effort to trade oil for food. NATO then zapped Gaddafi without a plan for replacing him, and the result has been a long civil war in Libya. NATO is similarly supporting factions attempting regime change in Syria, but in such an ineffective fashion that civil war has gone on for a long time. Stop bankers from printing food inflation that the poor can’t afford, and come up with a plan to restore order that makes sense. Long civil wars are making the Libyans and Syrians so unhappy that they are fleeing their ancestral homeland. Some of them want revenge on Europe for their role in turning their homes into a endless battlefield.
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“NATO can only reasonably solve the refugee crisis by setting up safe areas inside Libya and Syria for the refugees.”
Exactly and according to Stefan Molyneux who doesn’t state such things without the proof to back them up, 12 times as many refuges can be helped IN PLACE that they could for the same cost in the west.
“NATO then zapped Gaddafi without a plan for replacing him, and the result has been a long civil war in Libya. NATO is similarly supporting factions attempting regime change in Syria, but in such an ineffective fashion that civil war has gone on for a long time.”
I used to think that that “lack of planning” was due to unbelievable stupidity until I realized that countries embroiled in bloody civil wars with no central authority can’t develop nuclear weapons, the only real barrier to western hegemony in the region. As a bonus, the nanoscopic numbers of deaths due to terrorism in the west when taken into perspective with all of the other causes of death make for a convenient excuse to grow the power and oversight of the state. It also makes for some nice weapons contracts.
The only real threat from terrorism is biological or nuclear and with the exception a few of the PLANNERS of the 9/11 attack, all terrorists I’ve ever read about were total morons and losers, so I don’t see that happening.
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Stefan Molyneux speaks without knowing a whole lot of the time. He’s an angry entertainer… and treats people who work for him very badly.
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Austrian troops to stop migrants crossing border with Italy
Austrian defence minister sends four Pandur armoured personnel carriers to Tyrol region and 750 troops are on standby – 4 Jul 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/04/austrian-troops-to-stop-migrants-crossing-border-with-italy
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Solidarity?
So much for the EU.
Where’s Mogherini and her Brussells cohorts in all this?
She said the EU is to be a Super-power.
Try starting inside your own borders love!
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4 APCs and 750 troops to defend 440 km of borders … how is this anything more than a photo op?
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The EU is full of 18th and 19th Century thinkers looking to create an Empire.
Better they defend and police their own borders first as they look ridiculous.
Especially when military deployed internally where there is supposed to be no border.
Perhaps it’s to avoid bad German press before the election. After the election it will be stand down and let it happen time.
“The European Union is a superpower,” EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini declared.
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“The European Union is a superpower” – Federica Mogherini
A “superpower” w/ zero military/defense & zero leadership capacity… can’t even police it’s own backyard. Let’s see what comes from this latest (DE-hosted) G20 summit… prediction? Nothing. Nada. Zilch. The EU is irrelevant, and it’s demise will be just as slow as it’s construction… it will be another decade or more before europeans even admit that the EU is failing/devolving.
Europeans desperately want to be relevant & important, yet they do nothing to earn relevance or stature… it’s laughable. European opinion will matter again when they re-learn the ability to wipe their own bottom.
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I believe the EU is headed towards chaos one way or another. A few countries will survive like Austria which have sealed their borders but the rest are toast. If it is not financial collapse then it will be civil chaos as more immigrants rush in. Look for European countries to start building up military forces as army, police or some other organization. Europe will soon be like Israel with armed personnel on each corner. This will be done in anticipation of civil unrest.
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No denying that this will be policy in some nations at least. For example Spain post crisis went hard in to contain public dissent, and for no other reason than economic discontent. France has always looked for the slightest excuse to militarize the police force.
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Eurointelligence: “…the financial Armageddon we are likely to see after an Italian euro exit.”
Just like the predicted “Armageddon” after Brexit, which never happened.
Eurointelligence = Eurohyperbole.
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They didn’t even bother to discuss Bagnai-Grainville-Mangeau Ospina model. It’s just “the multiple financial shocks”, “major damage to the financial system”, “financial Armageddon”…why not darkness for three days and the death of firstborn? OPERATION FEAR at its best.
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Wow -how many posts have been written in this blog about the sudden demise of the EU???
It is still kicking and showed recently stronger growth than the US led by the job and #1 guy LOL .
I bet that the EU will be in place next year, the following year and many more to come.
What will change over the next 12 months? France + Germany with re-elect Merkel will create a real financial union (Zahlmeister Germany like I mentioned in the Hamilton reference) but with enough stringent rules that the German worker is not going mad about it. Military wise the European states will work much closer together than in the past – which also means own weapon developments and no purchases from their US friends. Some Eastern European states have already passed control of some of their army forces to the German eee European forces 😉
Direct investments by European states (mainly Germany) in the US have been gone down substantially (Trump effect) – could be first sign that going west will be out for some time.
China just signed with Airbus a 23bn$ deal. Interesting times
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Although Italy should leave the E.U. and the Euro Zone, at this stage they are “Negotiating”.
It is a very creditable “Threat” and Brussels needs to listen to it.
Odds are for one more bail-out.
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Nine years after the onset of the financial crisis in 2007, output remains 8% down from its pre-crash level.
As far-fetched as the thought Italy would follow the U.K.’s example and leave the European Union may seem, capital flows suggest that some people aren’t waiting to find out. A great deal of money has been sneaking out the backdoor, more on this below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/12/italy-caught-between-rock-and-hard-spot.html
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Reblogged this on The Most Revolutionary Act and commented:
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Given the insolvency of Italian banks and the EU refusal to resolve Italy’s refugee crisis, will Italy be the next country to leave the EU?
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The bond traders were taking “Italeave” seriously 12 months ago when the Italian 10 yr bond printed its low. Then there was sell-off. the past 3-4 months has been a narrow range consolidation. The consolidation is being retraced very quickly. once yields hit the 2.40% range, “Italeave” there is no looking back.
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