SupplyChain24 says Volvo First Major Car Manufacturer to Go All Electric.
The headline is not quite accurate, nor is the notion we are on the verge of the end of the internal combustion engine.
This is a step in that direction, but let’s separate the hype from the reality.
The announcement represents one of the most significant moves by any car maker to embrace electrification and highlights how over a century after the invention of the internal combustion engine electrification is paving the way for a new chapter in automotive history.
“This is about the customer,” said Håkan Samuelsson, president and chief executive.
“People increasingly demand electrified cars and we want to respond to our customers’ current and future needs. You can now pick and choose whichever electrified Volvo you wish.”
Volvo Cars will introduce a portfolio of electrified cars across its model range, embracing fully electric cars, plug in hybrid cars and mild hybrid cars.
It will launch five fully electric cars between 2019 and 2021, three of which will be Volvo models and two of which will be high performance electrified cars from Polestar, Volvo Cars’ performance car arm.
“This announcement marks the end of the solely combustion engine-powered car,” said Mr Samuelsson.
All Electric – Well Not Quite
Volvo says this is “This marks the end of the solely combustion engine-powered car.”
Where? When? For whom?
Announcment “About the Customer?”
Precisely who is the demand from other than governments?
Al Gore is not an acceptable answer.
The problem with hybrids is they add expense yet you still have the internal combustion engine and all its problems.
The problem with batteries is weight, cost, distance, and the major inconvenience of recharging, with no public recharging stations.
I do expect all of those problems will be solved, but unlike autonomous trucking and city transport, battery technology will take a lot longer.
Even if battery charging times are cut in half, anyone driving outside of cities will want gas powered.
Government subsidies and demands from states like California and various countries in Europe will accelerate the trend towards batteries, but the death of the combustion engine is much further away than the death of long haul truck driving prospects.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Firstname Lastname said:
Their ad headline is already true. All Volvos (and other makes) have electric motors. The radiator fan, the cabin ventilation fan, one on each electric window, windshield and back window wipers.
Firstname Lastname said:
I forgot the fuel pump and washer fluid pump.
And electrically heated and adjustable seats for those fat asses.
James Greenberg said:
Starter motor too.
One other small thing, besides that fact that their is no business case to buy an electric car, is what about the emf that is emitted from the battery. I asked this question to the Tesla rep at the auto show and her answer was that is was no worse than a cell phone. ?? WTF, not a good answer. I don’t know about other electric vehicles but you are sitting on a high power battery, just intuitively this doesn’t seem safe.
First of all, it isn’t EMF (also known as voltage-derived force) that is often of concern. Rather, it is microwave radiation. But that comes from specific high frequency oscillations. Electric motors aren’t going to do that. That said, your phone can be a problem–so can the belt radio with speaker. So can your microwave. A typical microwave will be 1/1000 of the hazard level eight feet away. But 6″ away, it can be 100x the hazard level. So if you microwave something, step away from the unit. Don’t sit noar it, and definitely don’t put kids near it.
Another concern people have is that magnetic fields from high power lines could cause leukemia. Well, actually, that’s just shift-and-distract FUD, good for an easily disprovable answer. What people SHOULD be worried about is the ozone those same high power lines produce, which already is known to cause leukemia.
Carl R. said:
In the early electric cars, ozone generated by charging, and by the electric motor were a problem. Those vehicles all had very short tire life, since ozone destroys rubber.
Medex Man said:
@mjr — “What people SHOULD be worried about is the ozone those same high power lines produce, which…”
If that were true, one would expect utility workers to be dropping like flies — especially the workers at power plants.
The workers are not dropping like flies, because that entire myth was created by greedy trial lawyers.
Not logically correct‚ Medex. You’d have to simply look at leukemia rates.
More than that, there are saddle curves in a lot of biological reactions: sometimes a higher dose can be devastating, but a much higher dose can be no worse than a low dose.
Medex Man said:
@mjr — if the leukemia is caused by high voltage power lines, then one would expect all persons exposed to that cause would be effected. In this case, utililty workers are closer to your alleged cause (and for more hours) than anyone else — and they do not exhibit the symptoms you allege.
Ergo, your cause and effect is wrong. Simple as that.
These alleged cancer clusters have been investigated thousands of times by all sorts of people — and the only ones who can find a link are trial lawyers and the clients who hired them.
I suggest you ask your school union for a refund — your political indoctrination went overboard
leukemia is not caused by high voltage power lines
Would be interesting to know the market projections these companies work with.
Add a 10 horsepower electric motor to run the AC compressor and you are talking some major amperage draw, and a bunch of weight! Might need a trailer to haul extra batteries?
I expect you wouldn’t use an AC: you would go with solid state cooling chips.
As for long distance, the easy answer is to supplement the batteries with a small diesel generator. When you program your destination, the car already knows to run the generator.
In a way, there is a huge opportunity to cars to develop standards for answers. For example, Mish’s battery-quick-swap requires all kinds of battery tracking, performance tracking and proper billing for damage done (every battery usage does damage the electrode) as well as the chemistry in the changeout. Maybe the best answer might be rebates upon subsequent usage by the next customer.
But to develop those standards could be very important.
Another standard might be for technology that charges cars while they wait at the traffic light, but using smart tech and pre-arranged billing, as well as user-set price limits.
All that can be done, but requires standards. Once the standards are set and there’s a profit in it, things will move forward.
Medex Man said:
History or english majors who don’t understand solid state cooling works for integrated chips and maybe whole circuit boards, not they are not used for cooling a passenger cabin. And based on the money everyone from midsize business to Google spends cooling their data centers, the external cooling requirements are still significant.
Just because you use “engineering sounding” words doesn’t mean you know what you are talking about, or that you are fooling other commenters. Its easy to fool CNN or NY Times writers, but not people who use this tech in real world applications.
John Frankel (@john_frankel) said:
Having tested a mini countryman hybrid recently, the advantage seems to be better torque from the electric rear wheel drive, and the added boost of power from a smaller IC engine. Combination is smooth quite driving, that is exceptionally responsive, but with the range of a gas powered vehicle. Certainly intriguing, subject to cost and subsidies, though.
YES!!! the electric motor has instant torque on demand, where the IC does not. Electric motors dominate IC motors in the 0-60 MPH category for precisely this reason.
Small car, great for commuter range. Hookup a trailer, with extra battery and luggage space, and hit the weekend overnighter. The trailer can have power assist, if needed. And if it’s a U-haul trailer, you can swap it out for longer sprints. No waiting, no worries. On Monday, back to commuting.
Hybrids do not have to use large, heavy battery packs. Small light packs will do, provided you don’t want to travel too far in all-electric mode. Almost 90% of the savings in a hybrid comes from simply turning off the engine when braking or when stopped. Every year, more vehicles are built with these simple systems, resulting in huge fuel savings and much less pollution (think of all those cars stopped at lights or in traffic jams with their engines automatically shutting off). Volvo is not going “all-electric”, just all hybrid.
Yes they are going all hybrid AND they are making the jump too soon I bet!
They appear to be politics driven not customer driven
Then it is Chinese politics. Volvo was purchased 7 years ago by Geely, a Chinese automaker.
Mish, now that I’m retired from heavy machinery sales, I no longer drive pickup trucks and Tahoes and Suburbans. Rather I now drive a Toyot Prius. You’d think I’d have a problem going down in size and power. But I don’t. I actually love the Toyota Prius. It has plenty of power and none of the headaches except winter driving in Minnesota. So I went to Michelin Snow tires. I found the loss of fuel economy acceptable at about 1-3 % so we kept the aggressive tread on for Belly Whopper rains we have up here in the Twin Cities. I have averaged 47 mpg over 88,000 miles. Recently I replaced front brake shoes another plus of electric powered vehicles as they employ a dynamic braking action and less brake where. Never, I mean absolutely never ever have we experienced an over heated engine or oil leaks that. That Usually come with overheating. I’m stunned and never ever thought I would prefer electric gas combination, several weeks ago I sent you an announcement from Komatsu Machinary. They have successfully developed and deployed a fleet of all electric heavy haul 100 plus ton mining trucks ! They charge their batteries going down hill!! Somehow they solved the problem of the size and weight and type of batteries. I’ll research further.
Thanks for sharing
I think the big takeaway from the Volvo announcement is this signals that the Chinese are going big time into EVs. This has profound implications for long term oil demand. If Chinese adopt EVs at a accelerated rate oil demand will flatline.
Oil demand growth is being driven entirely by Chinese and Indian car buyers these days. EV 20% of China and you have a sea change.
Note: EV generally includes plug-ins
Volvo’s market share is miniscule, so they can join this fad without too much harm to it….For reasons I have set forth before, electric vehicles are inefficient, even wasteful of energy, and then you have the batteries to contend with as they age. Also, it would cost many trillions to build an infrastructure to support them nationwide. There is no case for them, but they will remain toys of the wealthy liberal faddist…..
Medex Man said:
A failing car company offers electric hybrids and a big steaming pile of … marketing hype
Volvo is owned by the Chinese auto company Geely. They are not failing. Demand for hybrids is huge in China.
I try to avoid picking up balance sheets, but a cursory look at theirs shows solid growth as well. All irrelevant though, since we all know you work for Soros.
Why would it cost trillions for infrastructure? Don’t all gas stations already have electricity? Maybe we would need to generate a little more electricity, but that won’t cost trillions.
The only new cost would be the cost of installing a charging station. But that is probably LESS than the cost of installing a gas pump, especially when you consider all the government regulations that go into gas pumps. (I expect government regulations on charging stations, too. I’m not that naiive.)
Medex Man said:
@kidhorn — “Why would it cost trillions for infrastructure? Don’t all gas stations already have electricity? Maybe we would need to generate a little more electricity, but that won’t cost trillions.”
This is why history and poly-sci majors make great politicians and lousy engineers.
Your house has electricity running in it. But depending on the age / location of your house, (in the USA) you might have 110 or 220 service. You can run a window A/C unit off the old 110 service, but if you want to install a central A/C you will be told to upgrade to 220 service first.
The wires coming in off the street matter too. Your utility has to run bigger / smaller capacity wires to nearby substations according to average demand. When a developer comes in and converts farmland to houses, or houses to condos / appartments — the local utility has to adjust wattage coming into the nearby substation (and it might need to build a new substation, depending on the changes).
Just because these changes happen out of your sight does not mean they don’t happen or that the changes don’t cost money.
This is why we can’t allow libtards and their silly political mantras to make engineering decisions. I know we are supposed to have patience with your lack of knowledge, but after your ghetto president forced himself on the country — we are all out of cr@p tolerance.
Even if you don’t have an electrical background, common sense (if your politics wasn’t blocking it) would tell you the electrical grid doesn’t have unlimited capacity.
And basic empathy skills (that non-engineers are supposed to be good at?) should tell you that Obama used up all the patience for ignorant political engineering. Trump is in the Oval Office because Obama’s stupidity. Enough already.
Tom G. said:
Yes, all gas stations currently have an electricity supply.
However, the average gas station is wired for 220v service with around 400 amps available. According to Motor Trend, a Tesla Supercharger delivers 400v at 250 amps. Even the Tesla Twin Charger that you can install at home is 220v at 80 amps. An existing gas station’s power feed cannot handle a single Supercharger, and would handle at most 2 to 4 Twin Charger stations.
Then, there’s the matter of dwell time. Most gas stations were designed based on the cars being present in the station for around 10 minutes per fill-up. A Tesla Supercharger requires more like 30 minutes, and the twin charger is several hours.
Even if you could cheaply upgrade the electric utility power feed into the gas station to accommodate a bunch of Supercharger stations, few gas stations have enough land available to triple the number of refueling/charging spaces available. Thus, going to electric charging would cut the capacity of each “gas station” to less than 1/3rd of it’s petroleum fueling capacity.
In many urban areas, the cost of doubling or tripling the land footprint of each and every “gas station” could be in the millions of dollars. IF it can be done at all.
Do the numbers: You’d need to swap out every single gas pump in your city with three Supercharger stations. Does your local electric utility have enough excess capacity to power several thousand Supercharger bays at 400v/250a EACH? I rather doubt it, so you also have to add in the money to add additional generating capacity. Large-scale electric generation facilities cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
It’s not excessive to claim that converting the country from petroleum-fueled cars to full electric would cost trillions.
Why not go to Al Gore’s plan of spending $80 trillion to get rid of cars altogether?
Medex Man said:
@chrysangle — you noticed the current politicians get all the sympathy points from the enviro-terrorists, but implementation of this ban (if it happens) gets put off for someone else to implement.
Its another publicity stunt from a failed government. Its far more likely that the French/EU government won’t exist in 2040
@Medex. True, but what they propose does set an agenda for adherents to rally around in defense of, and one more piece of legislation that will absorb energy and attention in any future standoff. Legislation becomes a battleground in itself and a means to distraction.
Maximus Minimus said:
Hybrids have the infrastructure built into them: the IC engine. The batteries are partly recharged during braking, the energy that would be lost. This increases their appeal to people who live in condos (don’t have their own power outlet).
That said, this announcement is yet another advertisement hype to people who believe power is coming from the outlet, and are generally math challenged, and hype driven.
Ah, technology. Changing our lives dramatically, and acting as cover of piles of BS:
““This is about the customer,” said Håkan Samuelsson, president and chief executive.”
No it isn’t – the customer that wants a gas engine is being ignored. The automobile did not replace the horse overnight. It took decades for until off road vehicles could replace horses – these extreme use cases will be at least as, or more likely even more, prolific with electrification – even if it will take a fraction of the time for them to be addressed in comparison with the 1920-40’s.
Hey Mish, you said above ‘The problem with hybrids is they add expense yet you still have the internal combustion engine and all its problems.’ and also
‘The problem with batteries is weight, cost, distance, and the major inconvenience of recharging, with no public recharging stations.’
So are you skeptical of ‘electric’ cars now? As an telecommunications and IT techie with 50+ years experience, and being an avid reader of the history of technology, I know that totally new technologies don’t generally become established and widely accepted for up to 50 years and, like electricity and the telephone, competing technologies (DC/AC, etc.) can and do co-exist in the market for years or even decades before a market leader emerges. And then there is the matter of supporting infrastructure such as EV charging stations. I seriously think that is what is happening in the automobile market, so please don’t hold your breath waiting to see the outcome, it might be a long time away! But by all means please keep posting articles about the automobile industry.
I am not skeptical of electric cars.
They make a hell of a lot of sense for people who live in cities.
I offered a balanced approach did I not
Mish, your presentation is an icon to balance in comparison with the comments.
Fair enough. I think hybrid is the best bet at the moment, for those who want to go ‘electric’. Cheers,
That is what I though a couple of years ago too.
Electric cars is not ‘new’ technogy. The even predated that ICE cars but that didn’t help.
Your comparisons seem really strange. Electricity provided a huge leap forward in productivity right away, the only problem was investment. Note that even electric cars manufacturers never promise you any serious (I mean, really serious) productivity gains, they concentrate of its ‘eco-friendliness’
It’s very likely that once, due to hype and governmental interference, and maybe even Peak Oil, electric cars will be as popular as ICE, and maybe even more popular. But in very best imaginable case I woudn’t wait any tech miracle comparable to the Internet, mobile phones, ICE, or other great inventions of the past.
The problem with electric cars originally was batteries. That problem is being solved.
There was a time when the consensus opinion was that hybrid diesel-electric locomotives would never replace the steam engine. (It even replaced 100% electric trains in some areas.)
Hybrids are cost effective for the around-town driver and the driver that must slog through lots of stop-and-crawl traffic, however if most of your driving is highway driving, it’s tough to beat the new gas-turbo engines. They are much lighter, cheaper, and less complex than hybrid drivetrains and still provide great economy on the highway. Plus, they go.
Medex Man said:
Meanwhile, more cities are recognizing that lifestyle is more important than overpriced health insurance from a corrupt ghetto ex-president.
They are pushing companies to use more telecommuting (which drastically reduces the need for all cars, road maintenance, etc).
They are pushing for buildings that offer a delivery receiving area (door man or lock boxes) where UPS or Post office or whatever nat gas powered trucks can leave deliveries right next to the freight elevator.
They are pushing for buildings that allow pets — especially dogs. And they are building public parks where people can get exercise (them and their dogs), fresh air, and GASP!!! talk to other humans with their mouth instead of IM’ing. The parks are cooled by these amazing devices called TREES — the things magically provide shade, covert CO2 to oxygen, and act as a water table / storage.
They are pushing for farmers markets and local produce from big grocers.
The thing they are still stuck on… f-ing public unions… is the cr-p that passes for school lunches. So much money is sucked out of the school budget for administrators and lawyers and big government quacks, not to mention the union dolts … that school children are eating pizza and chicken nuggets every day. No surprise, many end up obese — and no matter what stupid excuse the NEA or politicians try, this obesity is the fault of the schools. They offer pizza and nuggets as part of their welfare scams, as their “in locus parente” nonsense, everything.
60% of your health outcome is determined by the food you eat, the sleep you get, and the exercise / fresh air you get. 20% is hereditary. Less than 20% is from overpriced medical care (which is ALWAYS responsive, NEVER preventative).
Electric cars are one of those non-solutions drempt up by big government losers to solve a problem that big government created.
Better after market parts and car designs that allow/encourage repairs (instead of constant replacement) will be a LOT cheaper than government electric nonsense.
Show me the car maker that is designing their cars for easy repair, easy recycling of worn parts, and modest improvements in fuel efficiency — that will be the car company to bet on. None meet this description yet, but several (that already offer hybrids) are moving toward the repair / recycle model because hybrids make zero economic sense
Medex Man said:
BTW — both apartment buildings and single family homes are being designed with lock-boxes for deliveries when no one is home. Parks are being built / expanded near both types of dwellings (often with running / bike paths between neighborhoods and parks).
Of course, the big public union locales cannot afford their pay scams and parks (which don’t pay property taxes) — which means the big corrupt cities where “newspapers” and other media tend to be published are not implementing these changes (or they are on the trailing end)
If better after market parts and design … easy, repair, recycling were a winning strategy, the [free?] market would have brought it. I am certainly in your camp, and have always wondered why the market does not force companies to bring stuff closer to my perspective, but it doesn’t. It brings products for $16.99 which have been ruined by saving half a cent on one component, requiring you to shop around for something better, only to settle for more of the same.
You mention trees. The economic return on planting more trees in urban environments is a no brainer, but it does not lead to investments by the municipality (there is a problem with getting the costs and benefits into the same ledger). Government mandates (as in Europe) can force more attention to recycling (by forcing companies to take back their stuff at the end of life, giving them economic incentive, instead of pushing the problem on to society as a whole as an externality), but such regulation is anathema to the neo-Liberals who refuse to acknowledge externalities, the chief profit center of many organizations.
BTW, electric cars have a terrific profile for TCO and longevity within your terms, were the battery technology up to the job. EV’s are not a government idea for a drempt up problem: They are still nascent. Everybody I know with an EV is exercising choice and certainly not being steered by the government.
Medex Man said:
“The economic return on planting more trees in urban environments is a no brainer, but it does not lead to investments by the municipality”
Its a no brainer that trees do not pay property taxes or otherwise support corrupt public unions. That is the problem
Medex Man said:
@webej — I don’t know why you think the “free market” hasn’t filled the gap for after-market car/truck parts. I have had no problem finding high quality after market parts for every vehicle I have owned. The parts are available all over the place, they are better quality than the OEM parts, and the vendors offer help in choosing the correct part. Some (not all) even offer free PDFs that will show you how to install the replacement yourself (if you are handy / into doing that).
And with the internet, you can find these after market parts even easier. The companies generally will not list their stuff on Amazon — which takes too large a commission.
The companies generally try to offer better customer service. If you want to know if the part you are looking at works on a 2005 XYY model ABC (whatever your car/truck is), the after market manufacturers have online interactive chats and 1-800 numbers… and they are very happy to help. You will never get that service from an automated system like Amazon.
They (at least a dozen of them) already exist; some have been in business for decades. Most have been around just as long as Amazon has. But they are targeting a customer that values great parts and great service — not the customer that mindlessly goes for the company with the most advertising.
It is not the function of the school district to feed kids.
My 16 years old son’s favorite foods are avocados, mangoes, carrots, frozen peas, and broccoli. I throw carbs and oils and calcium into him with pasta pesto and sweet potatoes protein is salmon, chicken , pork and, of course bacon.
Can’t seem to get him to do much in the way of eggs or undisguised cheese.
I’m neither impressed nor convinced that this will be the right way ahead.
Around 2003, I rented an Audi A2 with a small Diesel engine. Light weight, I managed to drive 100 km / 62 miles with about 2.8 liter (less than a gallon) of Diesel. The cars of the future will use aerospace technology, carbon frames etc. as less weight is the answer to less energy consumption.
All ceramic cylinder bores, as about 65% of energy gets wasted as heat?
For the household of the future, I’d prefer some space suits. Why heat or cool the whole house vs just the body? Clever VENTILATION helps in “passive homes” these days.
Show me a battery lasting longer than 1000 deep cycles. Let’s talk when batteries on E-cars need replacing. (Q: special loans backed by the gubment to help the owners finance the $ 15,000 expense? Hell no to “swapping” batteries – would you want to play Russian roulette? People abuse batteries like they abuse normal cars. I just read out a Porsche’s data – a $ 300 device and an old laptop is all it takes. Over-revving gets recorded and when all those Lamborghinis blow up, there are idiot drivers who stress the engine by red-lining it without a load. Yeah, rev the engine from idle to 8,500. Rinse and repeat. Some towel heads will wreck any car in less than 1,000 miles…
Thailand used to offer “free electricity” to those who used very little. SUCH schemes would work, as would coating homes in hot reagions with nano TI paint, reflecting some 94% of solar heat. Put that on cars in Dubai. Keep innovating, but look past E-cars.
That Volvo XC 60 I rented recently was not impressive. 2 tones E-cars? Just forget it!
Jon Sellers said:
Diesel engines are about 35% efficient. Gasoline engines are 25% – 30% because of the lower energy content. So you can figure every $30 of gas you put in your engine. $20 is thrown away as waste heat. Hybrid electric engines reduce that inefficiency at the cost of lugging around a battery pack. Obviously the efficiency increase is greater than the battery pack weight or you wouldn’t get 50 mpg out of a Prius.
A couple of our companies engineers drive electric cars. One has a Chevy Bolt and the other has a Tesla (must be paying the guy too much). The company put a solar recharging station out in the parking lot for them, as both of them commute a ways. Both love their cars. One guy is married and his wife drives an ICE powered car that they also use for long commutes. The Tesla guy just rents an ICE car for commutes where there won’t be any charging stations.
I don’t know if conventional Li-ion batteries will cause the transition to electric. An idea that I’ve seen some patents on is refillable electrolytes. Basically the batteries electrolytes are designed to be inexpensive liquids. As the power starts running low, you pull into a refueling station and it sucks out the old electrolyte and puts in fully charged electrolyte and off you go. The refueling station charges the electrolyte. The advantage being that there would be no recharging time, no expensive build-out of new facilities (use old gas stations) and electric cars can go cross country with no new problems.
IIRC, some guy in Austria is in the process of proving the concept with a new car, and I saw a patent application from some college professors in just the last month or so on electrolytes that are pennies per gallon (salt water and magnesium or something).
My old motorcycle, a Yamaha Roadstar, had ceramic cylinders. It was air-cooled and a very nice ride. If it had 6 gears, I would have kept it.
It’s thermodynamically impossible to get 100% efficiency from an engine. So your claim about $20 thrown away as waste heat is misleading. In theory, even if everything were operating optimally, you would get far less than 100% efficiency.
Jon Sellers said:
The fact that it is thermodynamically impossible is part of my point, therefore not really misleading. There are other engine types that are far more efficient than automobile internal combustion engines, but you wouldn’t use them in your car for a variety of reasons.
I drive an ICE powered car for a long commute. It works very well for me. But I certainly wish I didn’t have to spend so much on gas and maintenance, and that my choice didn’t create so many negative externalities. So I cheer on the industry direction, but I won’t put my money where my mouth is until it makes sense financially.
If not for EPA idiots we’d have cleaner diesel hybrid cars in the US.
Maximus Minimus said:
Agree about the EPAiots. My car consumes 5l/100km (47mpg) of diesel. But it is not about clean air.
“Diesel engines are about 35% efficient. Gasoline engines are 25% – 30% because of the lower energy content.”
Efficiency is a function of the ability to extract all of the “energy content” lower “energy content” fuel burning engines may not be less efficient.
Looking over the Volvo presentations for their new products I am reminded of the old Audi commercial where the Audi engineer answers the question of why the engine has five cylinders. “Because four is not enough and six is too many.” My thoughts exactly on the electric automobile hoopla.
As debt continues and budgets tighten, subsidies will disappear. When that happens, the electric hybrid motor will go the way of the unicorn and dodo bird.
Sorry seenitallbefore. As technology improves and costs drop (as it always does) eventually close to 100% of automobiles will be hybrid. The simplest hybrid systems get 90% of their savings by automatically turning off the engine when braking or stopped. They don’t all need massive battery systems.
This is one area where Mish and I disagree. He believes that full electric will eventually dominate, while I think hybrids will dominate.
Electric will dominate cities
more like electric. the grid will gradually be cleaner in every country. Elon Musk already has plans to disconnect every supercharger from the grid. Hybrid is not a solution to anything, better run on gasoline and diesel.
Firstname Lastname said:
Dodos existed. Unicorns?
Yea they were late and did not get on the ark. 🙂
Subsidies on hybrids ended ten years ago, gramps.
Are Riksaasen said:
There was a question here about who wants to buy electric cars? The answer is Norway. In the Nordic Countries we have always loved the quality cars from Volvo ( ref: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0180748/ ) and in Norway we have plentiful and cheap hydroelectric energy. Currently half the cars sold in Norway are hybrid or fully electric vehicles. We also have a lot of recharging options ( ref https://www.ladestasjoner.no/ ). Drivers of rechargable hybrids report they have cut their gas bill in half, as most trips are short.
However, this has not happened of it’s own accord. In Norway there are horrendous taxes on new vehicles, but none of them apply to fully electric vehicles. However, outside the urban areas of the United States of America I can’t see that fully electric vehicles would work well, or even that hybrids would be desireable.
Conscience of a Conservative said:
Battery charging stations are not ubiquitous. While I tend to be libertarian on a host of issues if the government were to want to hasten the adoption rules that required gasoline stations to adopt recharging stations would greatly accelerate adoption of electric or battery cars
Hummm, if they are motivated by fuel efficiency, I can certainly understand the initiative. If they are looking to do some sort of carbon footprint reduction, it is pretty much smoke and mirrors when you consider the production of the vehicle, batteries, and charging sources for any electric vehicle. Just keep your eye on the basic global energy sources for clarity.
And please consider the solar pollution tidalwave coming too….
Yep, that’s right! How green it isn’t……
IEA PDF Citation for the above graphic.
Jon Sellers said:
Volvo is making electric hybrids. They are charged by their internal combustion engines, not local power plants. They are then motivated by both. You not only get better fuel mileage, but because you get better fuel mileage, you have a lower carbon footprint over the life of the vehicle. The amount of extra fuel used by the ICE to charge the battery is more than offset by the improvements in operational efficiency the battery causes by muting the effects of increased fuel usage while stopped and accelerating.
I noticed in your attached articles that they are comparing solar waste to nuclear waste, when they should be comparing to hydrocarbon waste. Nice one!
“You not only get better fuel mileage, but because you get better fuel mileage, you have a lower carbon footprint over the life of the vehicle. ”
I would like to see the numbers on that. It is my understanding that manufacturing and recycling/disposing of batteries based on the rare earth element Lithium carves out one hell of a carbon footprint initially. Also there is the added electric drive train and the added complexity which, all else being equal, should lead to a higher repair rate.
Jon Sellers said:
I think the numbers work up to the recycling part. Recycling Lithium is very expensive and energy intensive, and I doubt Toyota has a process to do it. But then so is recycling CO2 out of the atmosphere. So, like everything, it is what you want to compare it to.
I think you may have missed my point. Most folks associate renewable energy as being Green (whatever that actually means). A vast majority are not. Look at the chart. Biofuels and waste are predominately comprised of wood and dung. Both are burned as fuel. Not green by any means. Additionally, wind and solar, the most discussed, have significant shortfalls when it comes to supposed fossil fuel replacement scenarios, and provide less than 1% of global energy needs as of the IEA report. Nukes are really the only large global scale capable alternate energy that can even come close to being a substitue. Large scale deployments of solar, wind, or even hydro, do undeniably alter the local envirnoment and climate and are notoriously unreliable, requiring back up power. Do you know how much acreage is required wind or solar to even attempt replace a normal fossil fuel driven power plant (which runs 24x7x365)? Frankly, I think geothermal is probably the least impacting source of renewable energy as tidal even steals the waves I suppose.
Just my 2 cents.
Jon Sellers said:
You’re right. I was thinking in terms of automobile use of energy, not big power plants.
The government has a vested interested in transitioning people to electric cars. They fully understand the limitations of range and charging time, which means people won’t be able to leave their city without using public transportation. Which means TSA security checks, a limit on what you’ll be able to take with you, and full documentation of your travels…
This story has been interpreted many different ways among the MSM. Volvo says it will not introduce a newly designed vehicle based solely on a combustible engine after 2019. Much of the media is saying that Volvo will not sell combustible engine vehicles after 2019, which is not true.
Volvo has been designing/building great cars since they were purchased by Geely. They are about to release the new XC60, which is already getting rave reviews. I’m guessing that next year they will release a newly designed S60 to finish off their total makeover and mark the point where they will focus on electric/hybrids.
Tony Bennett said:
And when fedgov tax credits for electric vehicles end??
The ICE with a large-enough gas tank is needed in desolate areas like mountains and deserts. In other areas it makes sense as a backup power source (as an IT guy I like the idea of a backup) but it doesn’t need to be the primary.
Convenience stores and grocers will simply add charging stations just like most of them have added gas stations. I just noticed a new charging station today in suburban Chicago – it is attached to an electric billboard. So unless the EPA and Congress make charging stations a regulatory pain in the neck to open and operate, they will crop up at unexpected places rather easily. The free market will solve the issues.
If Western European countries raised their gasoline taxes even higher than they already are, they could discourage even more gasoline powered car sales. Think of how many African economic migrants they could afford to resettle if gasoline went to the equivalent of $10 per gallon. It already exceeds $5 per gallon in many European countries. 🙂 sarc.
'03 Grad said:
I disagree with you on this one Mish. The hybrid vehicle actually makes a lot of sense depending on the additional cost. The ICE and electrical motors/batteries complement each other by compensating for respective weaknesses. Most of the damage done to ICE is when idling, not operating in the right area of the power band, and when not under load. ICE are also generally don’t have good low RPM torque. Electrical motors have 100% torque at zero RPM’s, but get less efficient at high RPM’s. The hybrid drivetrain keeps the ICE engine (through the CVT) in the best area of the power band depending on the load. There is plenty of low end torque despite having a smaller, more efficient ICE. The ICE is never run unloaded as it is either driving the wheels and/or the generator. If you look at the Toyota and Ford older hybrid vehicles, the rest of the body falls apart before the drivetrain. In addition, the maintenance costs are lower as there is less wear on brake pads, less engine fluids and lubricants, ect…
John Smith said:
With lithium batteries being so unstable you are basically driving around sitting right on top of a giant bomb (the battery is under the cabin floor). There are safeguards, of course, but if that battery goes up (and sometimes they do) you will quickly be cooked extra crispy. Not for me, if there is still an alternative.
I am reading a lot of hyperbole and name calling that really detracts from any meaningful discussion.
An EV sedan such as the Leaf or Bolt gets anywhere from 3 to 4 miles per kwhr. To be conservative, using 3 miles per kwhr works out to be about a $1.00 to go 30 miles electrically in my part of the country (Duke Energy). A similar ICE would use about a gallon of gasoline which is hovering around $2 / gallon.
Recently, Dr Goodenough, inventor of the LiFeP battery, has developed a newer battery with about 3 times the energy density. So in other words, if and when we see this newer battery come to market, we should be seeing about 3 times the range. Current quoted range for the Bolt is 236 miles. Three times the range is 708 miles which is almost a month of 30 mile commuting on a single charge.
As Mich states, things are evolving quickly. I will add that this will tend to put a damper on oil exploration, well development, and gasoline prices.
To John Smith who wrote: “With lithium batteries being so unstable you are basically driving around sitting right on top of a giant bomb (the battery is under the cabin floor).”
There are safer chemistries and there are more volatile chemistries with respect to EV batteries. I think I would rather be in an EV that tells me to pull to the side of the road because of overheating in a pack than having a gasoline fire that occurs unannounced or from impact.
This will be Volvo’s Achilles heel.
Look for a bankruptcy filing in 5-7 years.
Medex Man said:
Ha ha … too late
Volvo went bankrupt twice already (at least). Ford bailed them out the first time. The Chinese company Geely is apparently Volvo’s latest rescuer. And this dosn’t counting several Swedish taxpayer bailouts as well.
Whether Geely bought Volvo to turn it around (doubtful), or to get technology and access to European markets (seems more likely) — that is a question. I have to wonder if Geely will pick Volvo’s tech apart, and then use the Volvo brand name to sell Chinese made cars into Europe.
Remember Saab? Its the same script. Volvo already went bankrupt twice (at least).
Volvo is swinging for the fence in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs.
Third time around is either a charm or a strike-out.
I say strike-out.
Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
I think we will get all-electric vehicles much. much earlier than all-driverless vehicles.
if there was such a demand for electric cars, we will all be running around in golf carts.
Stuki Moi said:
Volvo hasn’t gone all anything. All they’ve done, is say a bunch of stuff they believe will make their target market feel all good, proud, tech’y, green and whatever else is currently fashionable. While continuing to sell the same old cars as before.
End of the IC Engine?
No, just Volvo.
“battery technology will take a lot longer”.
Agreed. Like never. Battery-powered cars have existed for over 100 years and they still have the same failings. Anyway, the electricity has to come from fossil-fuels or nuclear – you cannot recharge at home after your commute from intermittents.
In view of this reality, it makes more sense to power cars with natural gas directly – rather than turn it first into electricity. Shame Mish never studied thermodynamics.
Hydrogen car promoters ought to agree with you, natural gas is better.
Hydrogen cars are about the same efficiency as ICE cars.
And no, electricity must not come from nuclear or fossil-fuels. It can come from a range of renewable technologies. Photovoltaic cells follows much of the same development as semiconductors (because they are cousins). Battery technology and charge times are evolving fast. Then you have all the other renewable technologies like wind farms and so on.
But “selv-driving” vehicles in the 100% you can get cheap from me…
This is from “technical weekly”, one of the engineer associations in Norway. The translation is mostly correct, except loaded=charged.
The reference to “mila” means 10 kilometers. 1 liter is about one US quart or just belove, but I didn’t have the brains (IQ) to convert this…
Maybe Greenberg can help me.
But the world’s heavy haulers: ships and freight trains are powered by diesel engines.