As the push for self-driving cars nears fruition, Congress has a bit of work to do.
A national solution is the key, not a hodge-podge of state regulations with states saying and doing a number of different things.
A House bill dubbed the Highly Automated Vehicle Testing and Deployment Act of 2017, is now in the works. It will give the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration broad oversight of the self-driving car industry.
The New York Times reports As Self-Driving Cars Near, Washington Plays Catch-Up
On Wednesday, a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee voted to advance a bill that would speed up the development of self-driving cars and establish a federal framework for their regulation. The bill, known as the Highly Automated Vehicle Testing and Deployment Act of 2017, is the first major federal effort to regulate autonomous vehicles, and would give the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration broad oversight of the self-driving car industry. A full committee vote on the measure is expected next week, and the bill could go before the entire House this fall.
The Senate is also playing catch-up. Last month, a bipartisan group of senators announced that it was working toward its own version of an autonomous vehicle bill, which would prioritize “safety, fixing outdated rules, and clarifying the role of federal and state governments” in regulating self-driving cars.
Self-driving cars have been praised by members of both parties, who see the technology as a way to spur job creation while preventing many of the roughly 40,000 motor vehicle deaths that occur on American roads each year. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 94 percent of traffic deaths involve human error, including distracted driving and driving while intoxicated.
Self-driving cars would obviate those problems, even if they would introduce new fears. (One well-publicized accident, a fatal 2016 crash involving a Tesla that was set to “autopilot” mode by its owner, sparked worries among regulators, who later concluded that Tesla’s driver-assistance system was not to blame for the accident.)
“These vehicles are going to be developed, and I want to make sure we’re developing them in this country, not China, India or the European Union,” said Ms. Dingell, a former auto lobbyist and General Motors executive whose district includes the headquarters of Ford Motor Company. “The challenge for this country, period, is how we stay at the forefront of innovation and technology.”
In the absence of federal guidance, many states have started developing their own laws for self-driving cars. California’s Department of Motor Vehicles recently released a series of proposed rules, and the state is beginning to modify its roads to make them easier for the sensors in autonomous vehicles to analyze. Michigan passed a package of bills last year that made it easier for auto manufacturers to experiment with self-driving cars on public roads. And Florida passed a law that legalized truly self-driving cars, with no human operator behind the wheel.
Right now, the benefits of self-driving cars are clear and concrete — fewer traffic deaths, easier commutes, the ability to safely use your phone while you drive — while the costs remain largely theoretical. But experts have warned that the self-driving car revolution could usher in sweeping economic changes, including the displacement of millions of workers. Roughly 1.7 million Americans drive long-haul trucks for a living, and another 1.7 million people drive taxis, buses and other commercial vehicles. When autonomous vehicles render many of those jobs obsolete, politicians will have a much bigger set of problems to contend with.
Florida Takes the Lead
On April 4, 2016, in a unanimous 118-0 vote, Florida passed the nation’s first legislation to legalize fully autonomous vehicles on public roads without a driver behind the wheel.
With no snow to contend with and an aging population that undoubtedly has night vision problems, Florida is a logical place to try, but other states will follow.
Quartz says Florida became the most important US state in the race to legalize self-driving cars.
“For the moment, Florida is the most important state as far as the legal aspects of autonomous vehicles go,” said John Terwilleger, a Florida business litigation attorney who has studied the state’s AV statutes. “Frequently, the first state to pass legislation becomes the model for the remainder of the country, so it is very possible that Florida’s law will become a model.”
For the AV industry, however, clear regulation would be a relief. But the flurry of competing legislation—ranging from Florida’s laissez-faire approach to California’s strict oversight—is causing worries. “Ideally, we’d like to see strong leadership from the federal government, not just to industry but to the states,” says Chan Lieu, a former National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHSTA) official and advisor to the Self-Driving Coalition for Safer Streets, which represents Uber, Lyft, Ford, Google, and Volvo. “We want there to be consistency across all 50 states, so autonomous vehicles don’t run afoul of laws crossing state boundaries.”
Consider the most basic issues: What exactly is an autonomous vehicle? Who is responsible when it crashes? Are they legal? Quartz asked lawyers around the country those questions. The only consistent answer was, “Nobody knows yet.” What’s certain is that self-driving car experiments are being run on roads where companies have pushed ahead of explicit regulation, or in places like Florida where regulators are welcoming them.
National Regulation at Hand
National regulation is at hand. A bipartisan effort guarantees passage. I expect Trump will sign a bill later this year. States will adhere to national rules. Even California will be forced to go along.
The lead article by the New York Times has the standard disclaimer: “Some experts predict it could be a decade or longer until cars are capable of full autonomy in every driving condition, but several major auto manufacturers, including Ford and Toyota, say they’re on track to release cars capable of limited autonomy within the next four years.”
Depending on your view, that statement is either sappy nonsense or it does not go far enough. The word “every” is the culprit. What if it rains asteroids?
Yes, there are likely some conditions in some remote places that will require a driver for some time, but that is perhaps one tenth of one percent of driving.
Rain, snow, cats, dogs, grandmothers on roller skates, balloons blowing across the street, and all the other nonsense thrown my way by deniers will soon give way to reality: Truly driverless vehicles will be on the roads by 2021-2022.
Major Disruption
Millions of jobs will vanish in the next five to seven years.
Some challenge that statement because there are “only” 1.7 million long-haul truck jobs and another 1.7 million taxi jobs.
Job Aspects
- Long haul truck drivers will be the first to go. Taxis will follow.
- The auto insurance business will face major disruption. There will be fewer accidents and even fewer claims adjusters especially if we see national no-fault regulations.
- What about all the servers at truck stop restaurants along the highways?
- With a simultaneous push towards electric and steadier driving, there will be a reduced need for mechanics.
- Car ownership itself comes into question. In cities, there will be a huge move towards non-ownership. That means fewer cars on the roads, and fewer cars produced.
- Diesel will give way to electric. The need to produce, refine, and deliver diesel will diminish then stop at some point.
- There will be new jobs too. Truck monitoring comes to mind.
- Instead of a driver, school buses will have a nanny. Other nanny-type jobs will surface as parents will not want kids in vehicles by themselves.
- If cities or highways put in transmitters of some sort along the roads, there will be work, at least for a while, performing those tasks.
This is the biggest technological disruption since the internet. It will impact vehicle ownership, insurance, maintenance, mechanics, and even short order cooks.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
You can’t stop progress , but where is it taking us?..
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I cannot wait for the next Carl Hiaasen novel.
Florida driverless cars, better make em passengerless too
they will all be robbed.
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It is a VC joke and those in DC want to control the VC $$$.
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I can see the string of driverless cars in the starbucks pick up lane.
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. It will be wonderful.
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Mishunderstandings – based on too few questions being asked. here just two
Will the driverless car be permitted / programmed to exceed the speed limit ?
Those long Florida roads where no one does the speed limit ?
Will the driverless car be programmed to drive around a thief or felon ?
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Alexa, the problem I think with AVs will be the “lowest common denominator” – if Aunt Maud liked driving safely at 30 mph, she will have her knickers in an absolute knot at 80 mph.
Chances are, they are going to program AVs to cater for Aunt Maud, rather than you or me.
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“Will the driverless car be permitted / programmed to exceed the speed limit ?”
In a world of driverless cars, what will the speed limit be? it is possible there won’t be a uniform at all times speed limit.
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Solution: The world’s first all-electric VTOL jet. Works great… until it doesn’t.
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It’s taking us to the same place it always has.
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I’m happy for the improvements. Since, I’m indulged in this tech and our vehicle is hitting around, we will improve. Technology is all about learning. It’s all about us.
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It’s unfortunate a few of our politicians won’t vanish in the process as well…
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Yup!
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Just what we need, more Federal regulation, which will of course be dictated by giant companies with hundreds of lobbyists…
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Great, mandate all vehicles be automated and fix the price at $5 per mile for the privilege of having your butt hauled from A to B. Add $20 if you have carry on items, Add another $5 if you live in a blue state.
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“The lead article by the New York Times has the standard disclaimer: “Some experts predict it could be a decade or longer until cars are capable of full autonomy in every driving condition,”
…
I’ll take the over.
Even with no recession I will take the over. But the US about to enter the 98th month of the “recovery” third longest on record … when the recession arrives govt/business revenues will be slashed.
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Even I am not a friend of the Left, this guy sums up what is so wrong in our system of today. Over an hour but well worth it. Recommended.
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We should stop thinking in left and right it is pointless! Yes it was well worth it!
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I passed the Uber car this morning mapping away.
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How long before the shitheads in D.C. mandate that you have to buy one if you want a new car? Just like Obamacare, I can see this forced on the American public, call me a luddite but, I like to drive, and I prefer to be in control. I’m sorry, but I fail to see how wonderful this all is..
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Do you think the car companies will sell software for virtual reality headsets where you can “simulate” taking control of your driverless car during your commute? I bet they will!
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Badwrentcb…Remember the government mandate to replace the propane tanks on our grills in the name of safety? How about light bulb legislation…toilet water capacity regulation…dishwashers, clothes washers, low flow shower heads(remember Seinfeld episode?) refrigerators…the list is endless…The politicians and banksters will drool at the thought of forced consumption and debt for the average sheeple and luddite…
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New jobs will be Technical Project Managers and Developers. I get spammed beyond belief to move to one of these areas around AI but who is going to win? My company is stable and relaxed. Roll the dice to retire early? Basically if you don’t have skills your prospects are zero. My girlfriend is a pharmacist and I am pretty sure I could code away her job in 6 months. She follows a procedure which is the same things programs do.
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True, but she’s paid for her ability to break the rules if they don’t make sense (and know why they don’t make sense), that’s why she had to get a degree in pharmacology.
Rules and checklists are great until they aren’t. Sure, after the fact you refine the checklist but the damage is still done.
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It’s important to understand the difference between level 3, level 4 and level 5 when discussing this subject.
Level 3 is basically the super cruise control already installed on millions of vehicles. These systems hold a lane, modulate speeds , and emergency stop all automatically. most people don’t even know they have this system on their car.
Level 4 is SD within a mapped area. Outside the map, human driver required. Around 10,000 level 4 vehicles are currently in beta testing. Level 4 will go ( limited ) retail by 2019. That’s baked in the cake.
Level 5 is SD pure autonomous, anywhere; anytime. The rollout of these systems at ( limited ) retail is scheduled for 2021 by most producers.
My model says 30 million level 4 vehicles on US rodes and “up to” 5 million level 5 by 2026. That’s a small percentage of the fleet.
By 2030, the fleet will be 75% – 90% level 4 or 5. Human driven vehicles will be for niche applications ( grumpy old guys, and quirky niche applications possibly like garbage trucks )
We can argue round & round on the pace of adoption, but it’s going to happen. The only question is what are secondary effects ?
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What about emergency vehicles (paramedics, fire, police, etc.)? Will these ever be fully automated? Can they be?
What about the people who are not punctual and will demand to make a 30 min. trip in 15-20 min.? Will some autonomous cars have a “turbo button” that gets people places quicker than others?
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emergency vehicles are prime candidates for SD – safety. For example, 40% of Police deaths are single car crashes not on a emergency call. Allowing the car to drive to location frees up public safety to perform a variety of tasks without having to drive
Turbo option ? never happen because level 4 & 5 will not exceed posted speed limit
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The concept of a posted speed limit will go. Instead the limit will constantly change for the weather (rain, snow, icy roads,strong winds etc), traffic conditions (peak hour etc) and the presence of others (the limit will drop if a school bus is near is an obvious example). It will also vary based on each car/trucks characteristic even when on the same road (no different to trucks already having a mandatory lower speed limit on a downhill stretch than the cars next to them).
Now SD cars will be able to adapt to the new complex/variable speed rules but human driven cars will not. So within a few years non SD cars will be banned from many (most?) public roads (just like horse pulled wagons are now banned from many freeways and city streets). If you want to drive manually then you may need to take your car to private roadways. Soon most remaining manual cars will be vintage cars as manufacturers will mostly cease producing them or only produce small runs (at a high price as scales of economy will drive up costs). They will be a niche market along with vinyl records, VCRs, cassette players and sulky whips.
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“emergency vehicles are prime candidates for SD..”
w
“Turbo option ? never happen because level 4 & 5 will not exceed posted speed limit”
Sounds like a deal to me, as long as my bike can exceed any speed limit within a few seconds…..
In all seriousness, anyone who seriously believe we’ll have autonomous cars, capable of beating a live pursuit driver at comporting itself as close as possible to optimally, in a running gunbattle through rush hour Manhattan in 4 years, is simultaneously stark raving mad, and completely clueless about the current state of of robotics. Which is what full “level 5” autonomy really means.
AIs, even the very cutting edge ones, cannot even beat simplistic CAPTCHAs……. Much less the half ass’ed obfuscations online retailers spend about minute of half awake time to make life harder for price comparison bots. Or handle the “extreme complexity” of properly vacuuming an empty living room floor. Even before you introduce a cat into the equation……..Do people really believe they will soon be able to take over police car driver duties? And, as a corollary, regular commuter duties, as those have corner case just as complex as those of cops.
Mr. Currently-vilified-for-being-too-pragmatic (and, in all truthfullness, perhaps a bit reckless with the lives of others…) Anthony Lewandowski (of Otto, then Uber, then ambulance chaser honey pot, now fired, fame) had it right by wanting to put autonomous trucks on empty freeways. Now! Not tomorrow.
So he could watch them crash and burn. Then study their black box, fix the problem that caused this crash, then send them out to crash and burn for some other reason. Repeat, repeat, repeat……… Until slowly, but surely, the crashes become rarer and rarer. In that highly structured and simplistic environment.
Then, slowly, branch out from there to more complex venues. There is no other way of getting to autonomous running gunbattles, since even Otto trucks are still operating in completely uncharted territory. Noone has any knowledge whether even those will work anytime soon. And the complexity increase going from that, to the above running gunbattles, is most likely a millionfold. And most certainly a lot harder than some CAPTCHA….
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running gunbattles ?
you watch too much teevee
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Just livin’ in LA….. Trying to beat gridlock between LAX and downtown by routing through the hood….
One of the things a driver just may, sometimes, have to deal with, is evading an attempted carjack. In a “level 5” car with no human override (since there’s no controls), that job is now up to some AI. While rare, it can happen sometimes. Hence need to be part of any “level 5” “certification” for autonomous vehicles.
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I’m looking for some VC cash to start selling rehabed garbage trucks…
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Car companies demand you consent never to uber your autonomous vehicle. They want to monopolize the market. We shall see.
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These are part of the “unintended consequences” or ‘intended’ (your choice) that I’ve been trying to tell you about.
Not everyone has the aptitude to be a self-driving car computer programmer. Besides, they’ll probably import most of those from India.
Self-driving cars would have a HUGE adverse impact on the workforce. And social chaos would follow close behind.
Again – be careful what you wish for.
Most people at this website are a cut above intellectually. Please – think though it. Don’t just blindly adopt the motto “Technological progress paves the way for economic rewards and a stronger society”. Not always true.
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“Self-driving cars would have a HUGE adverse impact on the workforce. And social chaos would follow close behind.”
If not self-driving cars alone, AI will have a HUGE adverse impact on jobs. I have not been able to fathom how the demand destruction that will follow AI (this falls under that) is going to be overcome. Trucks lug goods from one to place to another. When people at the destination do not have jobs or income who is buy the goods?
Why produce anything when people will not have jobs or income to buy anything since unlike humans, robots only produce but do not consume. If you say UBI then how is it going to be funded?
“Again – be careful what you wish for.”
You cannot stop progress. It just happens whether it is going to be good or bad.
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“You cannot stop progress.”
Progress will stop progress.
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Americans can’t even afford their current driver-driven car fleets. How are million dollar self-driving cars actually going to be a thing?
Please, step back and actually figure out what these things are going to cost before thinking that they’re going to be common. And that’s to say nothing of the trillions in infrastructure upgrades required to actually have them run on the roads.
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Every time you mention the million dollar car figure and “trillions” in infrastructure, someone asks where you get those numbers from? You never answer, so I guess you just pull them out of your a**. Or can you back them up?
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Just common sense. And almost none of the infrastructure installed in the United States is actually self-driving vehicle ready.
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Look, the cheapest jet aircraft, which is a mere fraction of the engineering effort, materials, etc., of a self-driving car, is $2M delivered:
http://www.businessinsider.com/cirrus-vision-cheapest-private-jet-2017-5
Is it such a stretch to say that a self-driving car will only be half that in price? Keeping in mind that the self-driving aspect of a self-driving car will be incredibly expensive to implement, sensors required are substantially greater than those required of an aircraft.
People are being completely delusional as to what self-driving vehicles will cost to buy and operate. Its the cost that will sink them.
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If they actually worked the way those who believe the hype believe they will, they would make cars much, much cheaper. Some sensors, once mass produced, and some processing power, is dirt cheap, compared to all the technology that goes in to making cars relatively safe for human drivers.
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yup – LIDAR was $70,000 in 2014; it’s now $250.
predictions suggest it will go down to $40 in 2-3 years.
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So why can’t they build a light jet aircraft for under a couple million with all the avionics? Largely the same issues as with self-driving cars — there is an enormous amount of liability involved, redundant systems, and relatively low volume. All issues that will be problems for self-driving cars.
Those who think they’ll be able to just add self-driving as an option for a few thousand extra to an existing car are extremely delusional.
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For the same reason they can’t build flying cars cheaply, even with a human driver: It’s not the “driver”, nor the sensors, that cost money. But rather, the physical hardware needed to make heavier-than-air objects fly, and do so in a stable fashion.
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I do not think this will be nearly as disruptive as is being suggested.
Driverless cars are very similar to today’s cars except: (1) They make being chauffeured more affordable; (2) They make zero occupancy trips possible; and (3) They make human drivers less valuable.
People will not be able to go farther, faster, or for substantially less energy. The number of privately owned cars may decline, but vehicle miles driven may increase (due to zero occupancy vehicles, or “ZOVs,” on the road). Road congestion may worsen as cars spend more time on the road and less time in the driveway. Energy consumed on transportation may increase. Some government officials are already talking about taxing ZOVs to discourage that from happening. Here’s a new job prospect: Hire a clean homeless guy to ride in your driverless car so you do not get taxed while it runs your errands.
The big effects I see are: (1) Automakers may have a novel product that will cause people to purchase a new car sooner than they otherwise would; (2) The value of existing cars may fall faster than it otherwise would; (3) People will have free time that they previously used to drive themselves around; (5) Retail businesses may need to hire people to load ZOVs with customer purchases; and (4) New businesses will appear that depend on ZOVs to be economic.
Driverless tech is not in any way dependent on EVs and I do not see the prospects of EVs improving due to driverless tech.
Thoughts for the day: In a game of chicken between a ZOV and a car driven by a human, who will swerve first? How easy will it be to scare a ZOV off the road and rob it on its way back from the store? How long will it be before we all refer to ZOVs as “Zombies?”
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You might be right, but I would disagree. I think that autonomous vehicles, once adopted in sufficient numbers will be very disruptive.
I would expect the number of accidents to drop substantially, which will prevent tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries each year. The savings in insurance and health care will be significant.
In addition the actual physical damage to autos and other property will be reduced as a result.
There will be fewer traffic jams as autonomous vehicles will all optimize their routes, often in coordination. So while there might not be fewer actual vehicles on the road at any given time, it will seem like fewer.
There will be fewer vehicles licensed overall as each one will be used more efficiently and be parked less. Many families will drop from 2 or 3 vehicles to just 1. A far more efficient use of resources.
I could probably write a book about the benefits. But, I think the positives will far outweigh the negatives. Just like the automobile when it replaced the horse and buggy.
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I suppose they *could* be very disruptive if they all were programmed to respond simultaneously to the latest Amber Alert! Otherwise, how much could they really shave off transportation time? Drivers already receive real time traffic info from services like Google Maps. Alternate routes are usually “alternate” because they are substantially worse than primary routes. Also, it takes darn few incidents to clog up the works for everyone.
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Amber alerts? How many of those happen per year? Compared to 40,000 deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries from all the accidents? I would have thought that alone would make this disruptive.
Also, think of how eliminating accidents frees up traffic. No blocked roads; no gawkers slowing down; fewer ambulance, police, fire, tow trucks etc. having to turn on sirens and have people pull over. How many times have you been in a traffic jam because of an accident ahead of you?
No more slowing down looking for a place to park. You could probably eliminate 80-90% of parking spots, freeing up valuable real estate (parking garage or lot) and allowing you to convert a lane used for parking to a lane used for driving.
Then there’s the time saving. While at work, send your car off to a maintenance appointment, to pick up groceries or a meal, or send it to drive your spouse to work, or kids to school, or to work as a lyft or uber vehicle.
Again. I could go on and on. Just open your mind to the possibilities. Its endless.
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The Amber Alert comment was meant to be something of a joke. Imagine thousands of robot cars suddenly and simultaneously driving around an area looking for a perpetrator because the police sent out a bulletin. We get one of those every couple of months where I am. Anyhow…
My mind is open to the possibilities. There will still be accidents and breakdowns. The human factor will not be wrung out of the picture for many decades if ever. What happens when a human jumps in front of a robot car? What happens when a kid throws a slushy on the robot car’s sensor from a bridge above? Kids are periodically doing that with the human driven cars now. Humans drivers can usually handle that. The robot cars will likely have to pull over and may or may not get in an accident when that happens. I would think someone with the handle “Realist” would be in favor of digging down into the dirty details. The devil is in the details you know.
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Sorry, I didn’t realize you were joking about Amber Alerts. And you are correct, the devil is in the details. It will take some time. That is why there are 10,000 vehicles out there right now, gathering data, and “learning” how to drive better.
And you are right. I do dig into details. One of the “details” that I am aware of, that rarely gets mentioned here, is that the autonomous systems are having “ethics” programmed in to them. The complexity of programming “ethical decisions” will take some time.
Imagine your vehicle being in a situation where an accident is considered 100% unavoidable, and the vehicle has to decide whether to hit the kid on a skateboard, a dog, a senior on a sidewalk, or deliberately crash the vehicle into a wall and cause injury to the driver. I can tell you that the dog always fares poorly. However, what if the vehicle decides to injure the driver? Would you want to get in a vehicle that might deliberately injure the driver (even if the odds of this are less than 0.0001%)? That is a devil of a detail indeed! But, it will get worked out. Humans continue to develop amazing technological advances. We use the word “technology”, but we should really call it “human ingenuity”!
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Hmm…robot ethics and an army of 3000 pound vehicles open to communication from the web and programmed to follow any direct command from Police. What could possibly go wrong?
I hope this does not end up like the Terminator movies.
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Amber alerts would cease altogether as there will be no vehicle enabled child abductions due to governments requiring us all to be RFID chipped. They would know where everyone was in vehicles and other smart tracking options at all times.
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I might open my mind…but I won’t open my wallet.
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“autonomous vehicles will all optimize their routes, often in coordination”
It never fails. Whenever intractable problems for SD’s are brought to light, the desperate SD supporters eventually resort to inter-vehicle communication for the purpose of coordination. Trouble is this capability is not part of Level 3, nor 4, nor 5. This is a key issue, so just for the record, will someone from the tech side please post whether they know of any commercial or pre-commercial entity (DARPA research on military drone swarming does not count) is investing in vehicle communication and coordination for their initial go-to-market SD vehicle? As an example of the type of problem to be solved: A busy freeway is stacked with safely spaced SD vehicles at cruising speed. There is no available safe space between the vehicles. A new vehicle approaching the freeway from an entrance ramp must communicate with one-to-many approaching vehicles (how many vehicles, and how far away they are depends on the driving speed) so that they collectively reduce their speed enough to permit entry of the new vehicle.
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Every Friday I hate my commute. Every Friday there are city folks headed out my way to enjoy their weekends. Every Friday is hell on the highways because they bring their poor lane discipline and tailgating habits they picked up in the city out to my part of the world.
If they could leave Thursday night and sleep on the way they’d have more time in their weekend, not clog up the road for those of us who have work to do and hopefully their vehicle would be a better driver.
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HIghly recommend the article linked under “modify its roads” in Mish’s post above. It’s an interview with a California DOT guy. Horse’s mouth.
Also, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vfgjemwc9NU
Another one of these videos has the car holding for an animal scurrying across the street.
And, notice at the end of the video why it was made public.
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“With a simultaneous push towards electric and steadier driving, there will be a reduced need for mechanics.”
Utter nonsense. I.C.E. trucks are going nowhere but since the point has been made in great detail by engineers more knowledgeable than me on this site, I’ll assume you chose to ignore them.
I’ll get worried about losing my driving job when the public starts accepting computer driven tankers of sulfuric acid, which is to say… never.
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I agree that ICE vehicles will be around for a long time, but often in a simple hybrid combo with electric. All-electric transport trucks are only possible in very special situations. I do think that autonomous will be very disruptive, so I agree with Mish on that point.
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actually – the public will be demanding hazardous products only be transported using robots. Much safer than human truck drivers.
robots do not speed
robots do not text & drive
robots do not tailgate
robots do not listen to the radio or watch dvds while hauling loads
robots do not try to drive 70 during a blizzard
Finally, robots do not get tired, they can drive 24/7. – safely. Since they can haul 24/7, the need to rush and speed is eliminated. Heck, a long haul robot truck could drive 30mph steady and arrive sooner than a human driver driving 70.
saves fuel, wear & tear, and thousands of lives
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24/7 driving capability is a very strong economic incentive. Freight companies would be able to move twice as much stuff with the same number of trucks. It will be bad for the rest stops.
I am not keen on the idea of robot trucks driving at half the speed limit. That would be torture for everyone else.
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Other things to consider:
Automated trucks could have electronics failures, killing dozens or more. Additionally there is the significant risk of hacking by any number of entities. Consequently a human emergency ride-along driver will likely be required by law.
Humans cannot be hacked like automated cars could. Consequently all vehicles will need emergency override controls.
Another job that will be significantly impacted are body shop jobs. There won’t be much need for that profession either.
Parking revenues would drop a great deal at meters and meter maids would be far less necessary. While their salaries would no longer be a draw on municipalities, the parking and ticket revenue would dry up significantly. That revenue will be made up somewhere.
On a related note, with FAR less driving infractions, more government revenues would be impacted. In California, that will be a great deal of revenue. That revenue will be made up somewhere.
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“A national solution is the key, not a hodge-podge of state regulations with states saying and doing a number of different things.”
Come on Mish, wasn’t Jefferson’s point of the federal system to allow for different “experiments” in legislation instead of a unilateral fatwa from the central planners?
Yea, I know that ship sailed in 1933. Or was it 1861?
I say the states should all be issuing their own rules and regulations. It’s all just software after all. We manage (usually) to keep track of daylight savings time changes OK, and liquor sales too. To a computer there’s no difference between driving and changing the clock. It’s just instructions. If state X bans self-drivers just tell the thing to switch to manual mode at the boarder. If the car makers don’t like it they can just tell the self-driver to not drive in that state. Plenty of other roads out there.
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Let’s let each state set codes for Autonomous driving each mandating a different road signal and required gear. Let’s let each state decide if they even want it. Let’s let each state have its own way of adjusting claims. Heck, let’s just ban it because if there are 50 sets of requirements, California is likely to be batty and Illinois unlikely to do anything ever.
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Or, let the industry figure it out and make recommendations to legislators, who, after consultation with other experts (hey their “fantastic” state colleges are full of engineering experts, right?) will pass legislation that makes sense for each state.
Again, you’re thinking like a human. Humans like to see the same symbols mean the same things all the time. We are pretty good at it too, able to discern meaning out of off-color or misshapen objects. Computers are still pretty terrible at that stuff. But they can read QR codes and hold vast amounts of data in a few ounces of silicon. Data that can be recalled in milliseconds, perfectly, every time. Or if you think it might be faulty, just run two parallel systems and make sure they agree. Rules are just instructions. Computers are really fantastic at following instructions.
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I find it amusing that people keep assuming that self-driving cars would be safer than human-controlled ones. My personal computer crashes far more often than the car that I drive.
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Human control results in around 40,000 deaths in the US every year and hundreds of thousands of injuries. Over 95% of all accidents are “human” error.
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2,500,000 hospitalizations per year – car crashes cause
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And then guess what, you want a car, it drives itself to you and away you go. But you want to go a bit faster, get there a bit quicker, get to the front of line at lights etc …. these are all monthly optional extras that will add on charges to the contract.
Ultimately even more inequality as those who pay up experience a superior private transport system.
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Oh crap, what are we going to do with all those new immigrants who do the driving jobs Americans won’t do.
I’m going to miss watching my South Asian or Gambian Uber driver juggling his two cellphones while driving 70 … kind of like the boost I got in the jungle when AK-47 rounds went whizzing past my head.
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A few questions.
1. Who is behind pushing this technology on the world with government backing because nothing happens in a vacuum?
2. As excited as everyone is about this, is it truly economically feasible and practical large scale? An example is high speed rails, sounds good but neither economical feasible nor practical.
3. In a modern society deeply indebted and on the verge of financial debt collapse, can society afford another heavily subsidized system?
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