New home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 610,000 units, just short of the Econoday consensus of 611,000.
May was revised lower to 605,000 units from the initial reported 610,000 units.
New home sales are steady near the best levels of the expansion, at a 610,000 annualized rate in June. The 3-month average is 597,000 which is, however, noticeably below the first-quarter cycle peak of 617,000. This is a negative for second-quarter residential investment in Friday’s GDP report.
But the upshot of today’s report is mostly positive. Sales are very strong in the West which is a key region for new homes. Sales in the region rose 12.5 percent in the month to a 180,000 pace and are up 33 percent year-on-year. But sales in the South, another key region and the largest one, fell in June, down 6.1 percent to a 323,000 pace. June sales were up in the Midwest, at a 66,000 rate, and flat in the Northeast at 41,000.
Sales got a lift from lower prices in the month, down 4.2 percent for the median to a still imposing $310,800. Year-on-year, the median is down 3.4 percent and looks low compared to the 9.1 percent gain for on-year sales.
Supply offers limited good news, rising but only slightly at a 1.1 percent monthly gain to 272,000 units. Relative to sales, supply is steady at 5.4 months vs 5.3 and 5.5 in the prior two months.
New Home Sales
New Home Sales Trend
New Home Sales Since 1963
The trend starting in 2011 is clear. Every acceleration or reversal quickly gives way to the trend line.
The numbers from 1965 add a bit of needed perspective. Population-adjusted, new home sales are very anemic.
Affordability makes a purchase out of the question for most millennials. More importantly, attitudes towards ownership have changed.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“May was revised lower to 605,000 units from the initial reported 610,000 units.”
…
Don’t stop there. Numbers are SAAR.
April went from 593K —-> 577K
And, um, March too
644K —-> 638K
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There are now two types of residential builders, upscale (for the top 20% earners) and multi-family rental (the rest of us). Of the residential builders I know, none are building starter homes. M/I Builders for example has 21 sites in Central Ohio under construction, only three are priced as starter homes, well at least for our region of the country. I’m sure to some folks on the coasts, they all look like starter homes. Pht!
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The whole real estate industry seems like a conspiracy to enrich landlords.
National income: Rental income of persons (without CCAdj) (B049RC1Q027SBEA)
http://bit.ly/2h32Ki4
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“Sales got a lift from lower prices in the month, down 4.2 percent for the median to a still imposing $310,800.”
…
This had me scratching my head. Since last month:
“The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2017 was $345,800. The average sales price was $406,400.”
Then I noticed that not only May sales rate revised lower, but prices, as well.
May prices revised:
median … $324,300
average … $381,400
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The “Real Estate Lobby” is among the most powerful and operates at all levels of government.
At the municipal level they cannot be beat.
At the state level they are still very powerful.
At the national level only senators can challenge them, and very few do.
Now Wall Street is joining in so that when Real Estate ‘corrects’ the pain will be widespread.
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“The “Real Estate Lobby” is among the most powerful and operates at all levels of government.”
Which helps to explain why a petition about appraisal fraud, signed by 10,000 appraisers in 2001, was ignored by the government.
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exactly
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At the national level only senators can challenge them, and very few do,.,
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Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
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