In what is likely to provide a big boost to second quarter GDP numbers, wholesale and retail inventories surged in June according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department. The advance numbers also point to a narrowing of the trade deficit which will add a small bit to second quarter GDP.
Advance Indicators
Advance Trade
Advance Inventories
This inventory build is unwarranted in light of actual retail sales. These numbers will likely boost second quarter GDP substantially. Expect a substantial payback in the third quarter.
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14 thoughts on “Inventories Surge Led by Autos, Trade Deficit Narrows: A Boost to Second-Quarter GDP”
Tony Bennettsaid:
On Deck – debt ceiling debate + FY2018 fedgov budget. Trump wants cuts to entitlements.
Inventory evens out over time. If it adds a little this quarter, it will subtract a llittle next quarter. Still calling for around 1%/yr US growth for the foreseeable future.
GM is sitting on 180 days worth of automotive inventory for many models…
The only way to even out this level of over production is with a steam roller…
On Deck – debt ceiling debate + FY2018 fedgov budget. Trump wants cuts to entitlements.
The Fall could be interesting.
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Inventories and net imports mask the better and more stable core economy.
Real Final sales to private domestic purchasers (PE0000031Q156NBEA)
View it year over year.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PE0000031Q156NBEA
I look forward to tomorrow’s GDP first estimate to see how this compares to GDP, RGDP, Real Final Sales of Domestic Product.
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“I look forward to tomorrow’s GDP first estimate”
I look forward to going to the beach tomorrow and checking out girls half my age.. You need to re-align your priorities.
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I think you’re right….when business have let their inventories dwindle so low…
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Inventory build up could turn into a real negative.
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Keep building that automotive inventory…There’s plenty of parking available at the Sea of Tranquility…
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Inventory evens out over time. If it adds a little this quarter, it will subtract a llittle next quarter. Still calling for around 1%/yr US growth for the foreseeable future.
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GM is sitting on 180 days worth of automotive inventory for many models…
The only way to even out this level of over production is with a steam roller…
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Who cares about GM – what about Porsche LOL
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Remember, the auto industry represents 20-25% of the economy. Shutting down for 90 days would really dent the economy.
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Where did you get that number?
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The only way to even out this level of over production is with a steam roller…
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Mish,
Forecast? You seem to be ducking here…..
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It took me a while
I don’t duck
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