In what is likely to provide a big boost to second quarter GDP numbers, wholesale and retail inventories surged in June according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department. The advance numbers also point to a narrowing of the trade deficit which will add a small bit to second quarter GDP.
This inventory build is unwarranted in light of actual retail sales. These numbers will likely boost second quarter GDP substantially. Expect a substantial payback in the third quarter.
I will have an estimate later today.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock