Those expecting GDP growth will be up and away following the second-quarter bounce may wish to reconsider. If anything, today’s reports offer a strong hint that second quarter GDP was not as good as reported.
The commerce department reports Construction Spending in June fell 1.3% vs an Econoday consensus of a 0.5% gain. As a small consolation, the Commerce Department revised May spending from +0.0% to +0.3%.
Total Construction
Construction spending during June 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,205.8 billion, 1.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $1,221.6 billion. During the first 6 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $577.0 billion, 4.8 percent above the $550.5 billion for the same period in 2016.
Private Construction
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $940.7 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised May estimate of $941.3 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $502.9 billion in June, 0.2 percent below the revised May estimate of $504.0 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $437.8 billion in June, 0.1 percent above the revised May estimate of $437.3 billion.
Public Construction
In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $265.1 billion, 5.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $280.3 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $67.5 billion, 5.5 percent below the revised May estimate of $71.4 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $82.4 billion, 6.6 percent below the revised May estimate of $88.2 billion.
Construction Spending Residential and Nonresidential
Construction spending in the first half of the year shows improvement over 2016, but all of that took place in the first quarter.
Residential construction is far below the 2006 peak. Overbuilding of commercial construction kept employment strong.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“As a small consolation, the Commerce Department revised May spending from +0.0% to +0.3%.”
…
No consolation.
Another case of prior prior being revised even lower than prior. Presto! Makes prior look “better”.
Total Construction prior report. Numbers are SAAR.
April … $1.230381 billion
May … $1.230094 billion
https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/pr201705.pdf
Current Total Construction report.
April … $1.217658 billion
May … $1.221609 billion
June … $1.205788 billion
https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf
If no downward revision to May, June would have been -1.97%.
LikeLike
Ooops. Not billion but trillion.
LikeLike
Not too worried until fuel oil consumption starts to drop. So far so good. But, the rate of growth over the last few years is not sustainable in the long run.
As long as the Chinese and Italians are buying condos in SF and Miami, we’re golden.
LikeLike
There is no apparent slow down in construction in the bay area, its everywhere.
LikeLike
We supply builders all over the state. No slow down in Michigan, and we are booked solid for early fall. Of course, things can change on a dime. But right now, things are good in our state.
LikeLike
Less public construction has meant fewer traffic delays to work.
LikeLike
the rate of growth over the last few years is not sustainable in the long run. As long as the Chinese and Italians are buying condos in SF and Miami, we re golden..’
LikeLike
Collapse? That might be a bit sensationalist. Weak report?, yes.
Besides we are promised a trillion dollar infrastructure package from Trump, good times are just around the corner. HA!
LikeLike
Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
LikeLike