For the first time in a long time, CME Fedwatch shows the odds of a rate cut in December rose considerably above zero. Considerable means 2.6%.
Yes, that’s a long shot, but cut odds were zero on Thursday, zero a week ago, and zero a month ago.
Moreover, rate hike odds which a week ago were over 53.2% are now down to 35.9%.
December Rate Hike Odds
May 2018 Rate Hike Odds
No Hike Until June 2018?
Don’t assume stocks will retain an upward bias if the Fed does hold off, or even cuts.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock