Economists predicted a strong July reading for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. What they found was a slightly negative reading of -0.01 vs an Econoday consensus estimate of +0.22.
Highlights
Held down by flat readings throughout, July was surprisingly weak based on the national activity index which came in at minus 0.01 to indicate fractionally lower-than-normal growth in the month. July’s production component fell to minus 0.02 from plus 0.03 in June as manufacturing production dropped slightly; the employment component, at plus 0.09, was the strongest contributor in the month though down from 0.13 in June; the consumer & housing component fell 0.06 as permits fell back once again; and sales/orders/inventories sank to minus 0.01 from plus 0.06. Manufacturing production and housing permits once again undercut what was otherwise a solid month for the economy.
Recent History
July was a strong month for payroll growth and an especially solid one for retail sales, both of which are certain to give a lift to the national activity index. Housing permits, however, will be a key negative and are holding down the consensus, which calls for 0.22 vs June’s 0.13.
Eclipse
Regular readers know I went to Southern Illinois to see the eclipse. It was an amazing event, but compared to images I have seen of past events, this one would not rate high.
We did have a reasonably clear sky but the corona and length of the flares did not reach out far. I suspect there was simply too much moisture in the air, with little flare activity to begin with.
It took six hours to get there, ten to come home. It was the worst traffic jam I have ever seen.
I got up at 5 AM on three hours sleep, was at the eclipse site until 2:30 PM, and then it took 10 hours to get home. I am tired.
Back to my regular schedule sometime reasonably soon.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Weak corona? We are entering a Grand Solar Minimum, and magnetic pole change. Instead of low land flooding from warming, expect cooler weather, weak harvests, and food shortages. Start here: http://spaceweathernews.com/
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Yes, Europe already is having colder winters….but the “warming” scam will persist as long as the taxpayers can be milked….
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More deflation coming…
+++++++
Free College Is Now Here … Really
Real Clear Life | August 21, 2017 | Richard Klinsky
Something important happened in the field of education this month.
For the first time ever, any student anywhere can take top-quality courses online in every major freshman college subject, taught by professors from the most prestigious universities, that lead to full academic credit at 2,900 traditional colleges, such as Purdue, Penn State, Colorado State and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, all absolutely free.
There is no tuition cost. No text book cost. No administrative or connection fees. No taxpayer subsidy or federal Title IV funding required. And this is not a plan for the future, but a working reality available to students now, already built, entirely as a private 501(c)(3) philanthropy, at an exceptionally efficient price.
The charity that built the courses, over 40 in all, is called the Modern States Education Alliance. It has a bipartisan set of allies that include the nation’s largest public college systems, such as the State University of New York system and Texas State, which themselves serve over one million students and want to improve college access. Modern States is a new type of “on-ramp to college” for any hardworking person anywhere, and a way to cut the cost of traditional four-year college by many thousands of dollars and up to 25 percent.
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Thanks!
So for two year associate degrees that cuts college costs almost in half……
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haha.. use the lengthy trip as training for watching Game od Thrones at 2 am – it’s more atmospheric then and you can more easily get over its “hollywoodization”!
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Economists must have the look of shock and surprise on their face constantly. Who pays these fools? I suppose WE DO.
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Good actors reading a script.
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Bad actors from the crypt.
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Everything comes as a surprise to the academic grifter….
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“July was a strong month for payroll growth and an especially solid one for retail sales, both of which are certain to give a lift to the national activity index”
…
Promotional pricing + many schools starting earlier … pushing back to school sales to July when in past August.
Have economists (accurately) taken this into account?
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Mish,
I, too, made a trip to see totality. First time in totality for me. It lived up to the hype. When I see a post of someone with a “who cares” or “big deal” attitude, I know they haven’t seen totality. I spoke with people here (metro Atlanta) and they didn’t seem too impressed or were disappointed that it didn’t get darker. To them I say, with a solar eclipse, close isn’t enough. You have to have totality to get the experience.
Definitely worth the day trip and traffic on the way home. Sorry for all who were unimpressed. Had you gotten into totality, you wouldn’t have regretted it.
_aleph_
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I was right in the path of maximum duration. In what I believe to be the perfect spot or at least a perfect spot. Less than 100 feet from where I setup there were huge shade trees. Totality was beautiful. I was disappointed in my ability to capture it on film the way I wanted.
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Well, I can tell you from experience, holding viewing glasses over the lens of a smartphone camera doesn’t get it, but I had to try. Anyway, etched into memory. Only a bit over 30 seconds of totality for me, but I don’t see how the memory could be better. Well, maybe more coronal activity, but you get what you get from a free light show.
_aleph_
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“Anyway, etched into memory. ”
That is why you should use proper glasses.
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After six hours driving you should have been seeing flares everywhere.
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I saw The Beatles perform live in 1964. That was enough “I was there” chest thumping for me. I was nearly stampeded to death by crazed per-pubescent and teen-aged girls rushing the stage. Today I won’t pay to see anything live that I can see on-line. I did attend the local Trump appearance but based on his announcement yesterday to prolong our occupation in Afghanistan (w/ no time limit) that might have been a mistake on my part.
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Well, it was historic as we have not had an eclipse where so many unemployed people had an opportunity to see this event without a work conflict.
95 million Americans driving towards “totality”.
I was one of the unlucky ones who had to work, but like Trump, I did sneak a peak while unloading a truck, a sure sign of insanity, I later learned As I expected however, there were some excellent images on the internet, and I can wait for it to come out on Netflix.
I’m happy for all those who found entertainment or inspiration by seeing darkness in the middle of the day. It is good to be reminded that we are but a tiny part of a much larger world.
For me, I’m going to the mountains of Colorado for a week, far away from the crowds, to get my little communion with the greater world. I find looking up into that high altitude night sky far more enlightening than an eclipse in that it is there EVERY DAY and few ever even look up.
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Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
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