Inquiring minds may be interested in how the retail sector employment is performing vs food services and drinking places employment. Let’s take a look.
Retail Trade vs Food Service and Drinking – Thousands of Employees
Retail Trade vs Food Service and Drinking – Percent Change from Year Ago
Retail trade is not where you want to be right now, and it will get worse when the next recession hits.
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22 thoughts on “What’s Hot and What’s Not: Retail Trade Employment vs Food Services and Drinking Places”
pyrrhussaid:
Employees including part time workers, which is most of them in fast food….Maybe employee hours would be a bit more significant?!
Retail trade is not where you would want it to be, but it is where you would expect it to be. That retail is not growing is pretty obvious. Jobs are shifting, Amazon is hiring 100,000+ people this year.
They “plan to” hire 100K, gross… not net. And those are almost all temp jobs, which is why the net hiring number will be a tiny fraction of 100K (assuming they actually stick to their plan).
Amazon still does not produce a profit… so its not a real company. At some point, shareholders are going to ask when the “growth phase” will turn into a positive cashflow phase. Amazon right now can’t survive without perpetually issuing more debt and more stock — like a ponzi scheme, except that the new shareholders are buying the next money losing division, while existing shareholders continue to lose money on the last expansion.
Tesla is likely to fail first, but most of these California unicorns require endless capital infusions just to stay in business.
Which means *ALL* Amazon jobs are short term jobs, even the so-called executive positions.
Grab your popcorn and watch Elon Musk make excuses for failure — not enough tax payer subsidy for his “private” company to survive or something. Amazon will be later.
The modern food industry is just plain horrible, in the 60/70’s we trained the workers, cooks where real pros,when the big corporations (iTT) took over, directive came from Boston,local chef and managers lost control,profits increased? but quality whent down the drain. I’m a retired executive chef worked for one of the biggest hotel in SF.
Not food, but one of my vendors is wholly owned by Buffet.
Pre – Buffet: Prices high, but good quality and service.
Post – Buffet: Even higher prices, but large drop in quality and – to a lesser degree – a drop in service.
Just another (typical) example of what happens when M&A or the PE boyz – with their bean counters – enter the fray. Everything strip mined for shareholders.
So a huge percentage of the US government’s tax base is in trouble? Shocking.
How many people have been saying the ultimate result of central economic planning in the USA would be exactly the same result that central economic planning had in every other country where it was tried?
And yet, dumb people still voted for Bernie Sanders. Some are even calling for the DNC to go full stupid and embrace more of his socialist nightmare.
Want to fix government? Ship Bernie Sanders and most of Congress off to Venezuela — make them live like average Venezuelan citizens. See how many seconds it takes for that lying turd Bernie to change his tune.
Without a free market in the price of money there cannot be capitalism,period. Combine that with the racketeering in the medical industry along with bought off Congressclowns by big money to protect and stifle competition and we get nothing resembling capitalism. And all the crying in the world will not change a thing as the politicians will not vote away their tribute. We’re just too corrupt now. We’ll just meander along until the next and last financial ****storm finishes us off.
We don’t have capitalism anymore. We have crony capitalism, where connected businesses and politicians fondle each other for personal gain. The connected businesses don’t like competition, it’s bad for profits. So when competition arises, they run to Congress and demand it be legislated out of existence. In capitalism, you succeed you built a better mousetrap. In crony capitalism, you succeed because you got your friends in gubbermint to decree better mousetraps to be illegal.
My solution is: first, don’t let an ignorant senile schmuck like Bernie Sanders make a bad situation worse. Screw him and all his socialist supporters. You don’t like it, move to Venezuela and enjoy your system of stupidity by yourselves.
As for the mess here, where do you get off claiming that a system micromanaged by corrupt members of Congress (including your beloved socialist grandpa) is somehow capitalism?
Bernie (and the entire infestation known as Washington DC) is what is wrong with the country
The double whammy of retrenching consumer and Amazon/online disruption.
Perhaps were all just running out of growth runway.
Whatever is done to counter lack of growth I very much suspect a veil of tears will be gone through first for millions of people, multiple countries. No easy path.
Example – customers shunning phone upgrades as the previous version is good enough, reliable and the new version features don’t justify upgrade and/or increased cost.
Retail has always been a tough row to hoe unless one found employment in the luxury end of the trade. Of course selling Mont Blanc fountain pens is not the road to riches either but is does pay better. Salesmanship (sorry for all those of you who are politically correct minded but I will not change my vocabulary simply because you demand it) is at the heart of all retail trade and that includes eating establishments as well as dollar stores. Usually, but not always, the greater the degree of salesmanship one possess the higher the skill and the corresponding wage. Even McDonalds try to train their people to sell more with each order (you want fries with that?). But there are few big spenders at Mickey D or the Dollar store where one tends to purchase what one can afford to spend (of course many of those patrons remain in the same state of financial and physical health because of their poor choices not only in retail but other areas) if staying within some semblance of really counts.
We sometimes forget that retail expands as the population expands and as the average discretionary income expands. So far in this country we see population increasing but not discretionary income. Prior to the end of the sixties a great many women made their own clothes (the need to work for women was not nearly as great as it is now and the choices of employment were somewhat fewer), such an activity made possible a great savings in their respective budgets. Clothes were far more expensive that the capital cost of a sewing machine and the cloth one could buy. As an aside, in France (I do not know about the rest of Europe) clothing costs are still high in relation to wages and there is still a fair trade in sewing machines and cloth. In America the cloth trade caters to quilt making as a hobby. You won’t find many clothing patters (that use to be a big business here) as you do in France.
The other point to consider is that in those countries where there is in increasing number of immigrants (call them what you will), the retail trade changes in its character. For those countries where the majority of the immigrant population refuses or is at least reluctant to assimilate into the country’s culture, the retail trade among immigrants changes the economic landscape. It is often under reported and thus skews the economic data. So we are left to question the reliability of the data we now collect. Thus the difficulty in forecasting the future changes to the economy in general.
Imagine what it would look like if we weren’t importing millions of new consumers a year.
We’re in an economic/retail death spiral for ordinary Americans. People have been cutting back, trying to be frugal, for one to two decades now. I can tell you as a millennial that I do not own a television or have cable. Of course, I do the millennial thing and eat out too much, but that’s about it. Every car I’ve owned, and that will include the current one, I’ve driven into the ground. I rent a small apartment where at this point in their lives my parents were on their second house. I’m expecting a total economic collapse. And I work for a Fortune 150 with excellent job security.
I’m convinced that a large portion of the reason Wall Street wants millions of new consumers a year is that people like me are flat out not spending money.
In Chicago, a lot of neighborhoods are gentrifying. in those neighborhoods, a lot of bars and restaurants are springing up. A lot of young people with a lot of money to spend are moving in to luxury rentals. Those luxury rentals are mostly sold out.
1. Too much competition, too many choices.
2. Online options diluting market share even further.
3. Population growth in US with low wage immigrants who send money back home and spend only what is necessary.
4. Consumer debt is near maximum.
5. Spending patterns are changing and no one has figured it out yet.
6. Last and least, economy stagnation and recession.
Employees including part time workers, which is most of them in fast food….Maybe employee hours would be a bit more significant?!
LikeLiked by 1 person
I guess if retail falls through there are going to be a lot of pissed people around.
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Retail trade is not where you would want it to be, but it is where you would expect it to be. That retail is not growing is pretty obvious. Jobs are shifting, Amazon is hiring 100,000+ people this year.
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Amazon “plans” to hire the 100K by mid year 2018 … not this year.
And you know what Mike Tyson has to say on plans …
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They “plan to” hire 100K, gross… not net. And those are almost all temp jobs, which is why the net hiring number will be a tiny fraction of 100K (assuming they actually stick to their plan).
Amazon still does not produce a profit… so its not a real company. At some point, shareholders are going to ask when the “growth phase” will turn into a positive cashflow phase. Amazon right now can’t survive without perpetually issuing more debt and more stock — like a ponzi scheme, except that the new shareholders are buying the next money losing division, while existing shareholders continue to lose money on the last expansion.
Tesla is likely to fail first, but most of these California unicorns require endless capital infusions just to stay in business.
Which means *ALL* Amazon jobs are short term jobs, even the so-called executive positions.
Grab your popcorn and watch Elon Musk make excuses for failure — not enough tax payer subsidy for his “private” company to survive or something. Amazon will be later.
LikeLike
The modern food industry is just plain horrible, in the 60/70’s we trained the workers, cooks where real pros,when the big corporations (iTT) took over, directive came from Boston,local chef and managers lost control,profits increased? but quality whent down the drain. I’m a retired executive chef worked for one of the biggest hotel in SF.
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Cool insight Roger…my brother is a chef. Came up in Chicago…sounds like an intense game!
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Not food, but one of my vendors is wholly owned by Buffet.
Pre – Buffet: Prices high, but good quality and service.
Post – Buffet: Even higher prices, but large drop in quality and – to a lesser degree – a drop in service.
Just another (typical) example of what happens when M&A or the PE boyz – with their bean counters – enter the fray. Everything strip mined for shareholders.
LikeLiked by 1 person
So a huge percentage of the US government’s tax base is in trouble? Shocking.
How many people have been saying the ultimate result of central economic planning in the USA would be exactly the same result that central economic planning had in every other country where it was tried?
And yet, dumb people still voted for Bernie Sanders. Some are even calling for the DNC to go full stupid and embrace more of his socialist nightmare.
Want to fix government? Ship Bernie Sanders and most of Congress off to Venezuela — make them live like average Venezuelan citizens. See how many seconds it takes for that lying turd Bernie to change his tune.
LikeLike
So your solution is to stay the course with American BS capitalism, i.e. Keynesian economics? Either way we’re fucked.
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Without a free market in the price of money there cannot be capitalism,period. Combine that with the racketeering in the medical industry along with bought off Congressclowns by big money to protect and stifle competition and we get nothing resembling capitalism. And all the crying in the world will not change a thing as the politicians will not vote away their tribute. We’re just too corrupt now. We’ll just meander along until the next and last financial ****storm finishes us off.
LikeLike
We don’t have capitalism anymore. We have crony capitalism, where connected businesses and politicians fondle each other for personal gain. The connected businesses don’t like competition, it’s bad for profits. So when competition arises, they run to Congress and demand it be legislated out of existence. In capitalism, you succeed you built a better mousetrap. In crony capitalism, you succeed because you got your friends in gubbermint to decree better mousetraps to be illegal.
LikeLike
My solution is: first, don’t let an ignorant senile schmuck like Bernie Sanders make a bad situation worse. Screw him and all his socialist supporters. You don’t like it, move to Venezuela and enjoy your system of stupidity by yourselves.
As for the mess here, where do you get off claiming that a system micromanaged by corrupt members of Congress (including your beloved socialist grandpa) is somehow capitalism?
Bernie (and the entire infestation known as Washington DC) is what is wrong with the country
LikeLike
Mish – I know someone who is opening a new full service wine bar and restaurant soon. Buildout almost done. Do you think the timing could be worse?
PS Saw you on Greg Hunter recently…very good.
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The double whammy of retrenching consumer and Amazon/online disruption.
Perhaps were all just running out of growth runway.
Whatever is done to counter lack of growth I very much suspect a veil of tears will be gone through first for millions of people, multiple countries. No easy path.
LikeLike
Law of diminishing returns too.
Example – customers shunning phone upgrades as the previous version is good enough, reliable and the new version features don’t justify upgrade and/or increased cost.
Same true for a number of markets.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Retail has always been a tough row to hoe unless one found employment in the luxury end of the trade. Of course selling Mont Blanc fountain pens is not the road to riches either but is does pay better. Salesmanship (sorry for all those of you who are politically correct minded but I will not change my vocabulary simply because you demand it) is at the heart of all retail trade and that includes eating establishments as well as dollar stores. Usually, but not always, the greater the degree of salesmanship one possess the higher the skill and the corresponding wage. Even McDonalds try to train their people to sell more with each order (you want fries with that?). But there are few big spenders at Mickey D or the Dollar store where one tends to purchase what one can afford to spend (of course many of those patrons remain in the same state of financial and physical health because of their poor choices not only in retail but other areas) if staying within some semblance of really counts.
We sometimes forget that retail expands as the population expands and as the average discretionary income expands. So far in this country we see population increasing but not discretionary income. Prior to the end of the sixties a great many women made their own clothes (the need to work for women was not nearly as great as it is now and the choices of employment were somewhat fewer), such an activity made possible a great savings in their respective budgets. Clothes were far more expensive that the capital cost of a sewing machine and the cloth one could buy. As an aside, in France (I do not know about the rest of Europe) clothing costs are still high in relation to wages and there is still a fair trade in sewing machines and cloth. In America the cloth trade caters to quilt making as a hobby. You won’t find many clothing patters (that use to be a big business here) as you do in France.
The other point to consider is that in those countries where there is in increasing number of immigrants (call them what you will), the retail trade changes in its character. For those countries where the majority of the immigrant population refuses or is at least reluctant to assimilate into the country’s culture, the retail trade among immigrants changes the economic landscape. It is often under reported and thus skews the economic data. So we are left to question the reliability of the data we now collect. Thus the difficulty in forecasting the future changes to the economy in general.
LikeLike
Imagine what it would look like if we weren’t importing millions of new consumers a year.
We’re in an economic/retail death spiral for ordinary Americans. People have been cutting back, trying to be frugal, for one to two decades now. I can tell you as a millennial that I do not own a television or have cable. Of course, I do the millennial thing and eat out too much, but that’s about it. Every car I’ve owned, and that will include the current one, I’ve driven into the ground. I rent a small apartment where at this point in their lives my parents were on their second house. I’m expecting a total economic collapse. And I work for a Fortune 150 with excellent job security.
I’m convinced that a large portion of the reason Wall Street wants millions of new consumers a year is that people like me are flat out not spending money.
LikeLike
“Retail trade is not where you want to be right now, and it will get worse when the next recession hits.”
…
Retail the head of the snake.
Supply train
warehousing
shippers
commercial real estate
local govts tax revenue
etc. etc
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I’m a retired executive chef worked for one of the biggest hotel in SF
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In Chicago, a lot of neighborhoods are gentrifying. in those neighborhoods, a lot of bars and restaurants are springing up. A lot of young people with a lot of money to spend are moving in to luxury rentals. Those luxury rentals are mostly sold out.
LikeLike
Retail is suffering due to:
1. Too much competition, too many choices.
2. Online options diluting market share even further.
3. Population growth in US with low wage immigrants who send money back home and spend only what is necessary.
4. Consumer debt is near maximum.
5. Spending patterns are changing and no one has figured it out yet.
6. Last and least, economy stagnation and recession.
LikeLike