Angela Merkel would like her CDU/CSU to have an outright majority. That does not look possible according to the latest German Election Opinion Polls.
Her second preferred choice, a coalition with FDP is not looking very likely either. Is another “Grand Coalition” in the works?
Coalition Math
- CDU + SDP (Black Red): Another “Grand Coalition” 61%
- CDU + FDP + Greens (Black Yellow Green dubbed “Jamaica”) 51.5%
- CDU + FDP (Black Yellow): 45%
- CDU + Greens (Black Green): 43.5%
- SPD + FDP + Greens (Red Yellow Green dubbed “traffic light”) 38.5%
- SPD + FDP + Greens + Die Linke (red red Green Yellow) 48.5
46% Still Undecided
As of August 23, Politico reported Almost Half of German Voters Undecided.
Forty-six percent of German voters do not know who to vote for in the September 24 parliamentary election, according to a poll published in Wednesday’s edition of newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.
The newspaper said the share of undecided voters this close to an election was higher than at any point in the past 20 years. Yet at the same time, 45 percent of those surveyed believe the outcome of the election is already decided — the highest percentage since German reunification.
It takes 50% to form a government.
But all of the other parties will not form a government that includes Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the anti-immigration, eurosceptic. Merkel has also ruled out Die Linke.
Unless CDU/CSU plus FDP cannot top 50%, forming a government is likely to take months.
If AfD and Die Linke get a combined 25% of the vote or more, coalition possibilities shrink.
Almost anything can happen, including new elections, if SDP refuses to enter a coalition.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I’m thinking some leftists will hook up with some other leftists then see if they can get other leftist to break break ranks with the other leftists and maybe form a leftist coalition.
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Then it will be a party of leftovers.
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If there’s much change I would be very surprised.
Even pictures of Merkel on holiday were with her in the same clothes as the past to signify stability and steady as she goes. Goes down well with the German voters.
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That way she has to do less washing, the no cleansing “I am not a Nazi” posture.
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Disappointing that the ‘Free’ Democrats are in the running. If they become kingmaker again, Germany will just be a USG colony as it was for 50 years.
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This has been pictured in Monty Python long time ago… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WboggjN_G-4
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I spent the last four months in France so i had some information on the “German Condition”. There was talk of change but that has never meant much in Germany. There were “outrages” over the migrant problems but that has never meant much in the past. Like “The Fish”, for all the verbiage I just don’t expect much change in voting patterns.
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“There was talk of change but that has never meant much in Germany. There were “outrages” over the migrant problems but that has never meant much in the past.”
Yep. Germans just follow the leader and do as they’re told.
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Do not overlook Merkel was booed at a recent election rally. If nearly half of voters are still undecided and given the now notorious unreliability of polling data, and seeing a parallel in Merkel’s apparent refusual to engage especially on issues with T. May’s hopelessly inept UK election campaign, outcomes could easily see Merkel excluded from the Chancelry.
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I don’t see it. There is no real alternative currently.
If the election was in another 18-24 months I think there could be change.
When Brexit trade barriers go up the UK and Germany will suffer, high Euro impact will have been felt and global Automotive/export downturn plus move to reduced labour in German Industry 4.0.
Add a possible sovereign Euro scare and with bail-out needed & Germany back stopping it – then change might just happen. Not now imho.
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Tina Merkel and Minority Macron, what a combination, at least she has an excuse for make up ( not a compliment I suppose). The last I heard she was edging for an EU finance and economy ministry and budget ” to help countries help themselves “.
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Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
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Time to ditch the globalist one world government hag to the curb!0
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Forget it, won’t happen.
Stability is the German strength but paradoxically could well be their undoing.
Minsky doesn’t just apply to markets.
The occasional quake can release pent up energy and dissatisfaction.
The longer things stay as they are the more drastic the move when it happens.
Same everywhere.
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Under your theory, the Germans would ditch Merkel in favor of “stability”… something more and more likely.
Whether they ditch CDU/CSU (for what alternative?) or if CDU gets re-elected on the condition that Merkel gets kicked to the curb…
The issue now is whether CDU can push Merkel aside in time for elections only a month away. Yes they can, but its a lot easier said than done.
Its either Merkel goes, or choas and no ruling government for months (which isn’t going to help Merkel’s chances either).
Merkel got booed at her own pep rally. That should tell us more than any biased media poll.
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more severe crisis & tangible instability need to occur before the DE status quo can be upset.
germans will continue to vote for the devil they know until they are offered a comparably PC/globalist alternative (someone like Macron) -or- the crisis/instability referenced above materializes.
unlike the US, UK, and some other countries, DE nationalist/AfD support is simply not large/broad (yet) enough to serve as a catalyst for political change.
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I find this hard to believe but it’s doing the rounds. What man spends that much on make-up then expects to seriously tackle people about cutting back their benefits?
Shouldn’t we each cast out our own motes first?
Merkel and Macron had a loveliness this week.
http://honey.nine.com.au/2017/08/28/10/24/emmanuel-macron-makeup
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The 46% undecided are changing parties. Voicing out loud the obvious choice is heresy. Alternative for Germany.
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Merkel got booed at her own pep rally. That tells you everything you know about her political future.
Can CDU/CSU kick her to the curb by next month? Theoretically yes, but easier said than done.
A long, drawn out, 6-8 month period of chaos (with no ruling coalition, certainly not one that “sticks”) would destroy Merkel even more thoroughly than a “quick and merciful” death in elections…. but this scenario looks likely now.
Germans want stability, not illegal immigrants and constant whining from Brussels. Merkel was supposed to represent Germany, not Brussels, and she failed miserably.
Elections won’t change that, even if she “wins” (survives)
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per german POV, stability=status quo.
AfD/”change” cannot truly ascend in DE until the status quo is shattered by crisis or embarrassment.
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IMO, a structural crisis will be necessary to affect political change in DE…
() implosion of the EU/Eurozone/currency
() further EU political devolution
() concession of EU experiment failure
() serious war/conflict in ukraine/baltics/next to europe
() MUCH more serious/violent social unrest
i believe these are the sort of crisis/instabilty events that need to occur before germans will actually vote for something other than CD/SD…
migrant/terrorist threats & EU program weakness are simply not enough to shift the EU’s de facto leader from the path they have been following for decades… the dead canaries in the coalmine will be ignored until the miners themselves start dropping into graves…
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stability is watchword among germans I know. This will not be a change election.
highest likelihood is another Union-SPD grand coalition with Schulz as foreign minister
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