The spread between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast model narrowed a bit today. About one percentage point separates the models.
GDPNow Forecast: 3.2 percent — September 1, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on September 1, down from 3.3 percent on August 31. The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending and nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.8 percent and 6.1 percent to 3.0 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for August—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.11 to 0.41 after the reports. These increases were more than offset by declines in the forecasted growth rates of real government spending and real nonresidential structures investment from 0.2 percent and 2.6 percent to -0.7 percent and -3.3 percent, respectively, after the employment report and this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Nowcast forecast: 2.2 percent — September 1, 2017
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2017:Q3.
- News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast by 0.3 percentage point.
- Positive news from the ISM manufacturing report accounted for most of the increase.
Key Points
- As with the Fed regional reports, ISM has not tracked actual industrial output.
- Once again GDPNow’s initial forecast has been hugely positive only to decline as more data comes in.
- The divergence between the reports is a still wide but has narrowed considerably.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
August new vehicle sales … the envelope please.
…
August U.S. SAAR Dips to 4-Year Low 16.0 Million Units
Though still too early to determine accurate losses, August’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.0 million units probably is 100,000 to 200,000 units lower because of the hurricane.
However, even accounting for the storm losses, sales finished significantly below the 16.5 million-unit SAAR expected for the month. It was the lowest SAAR since 15.6 million units in February 2014.
http://wardsauto.com/industry/august-us-saar-dips-4-year-low-160-million-units
The theme lately for retail sales has been “promotional pricing” driving decent sales.
GM no different. Incentives rocketed from 11.5% of ATP (average transaction price) in July to 13.9% in August.
GM’s forecasts have been steadily lowered.
In January GM forecasted 17.6 million SAAR for 2017.
This month GM predicted too high for August @ 16.4 million SAAR. For the year lowered to 16.9 million SAAR.
Way OT, but bears a hearing:
Last Saturday, Antifa activists with black masks and shields emblazoned with the words “No Hate” assaulted Trump supporters, characterizing them as deserving a beating.
How ironic that the “No Haters” felt justified in violence against those they oppose. Is it becoming more common that people actually have the same attitudes that they are vilifying without recognizing it? Do they deny that they “Hate” the Trump supporters? What else justifies assaulting them?
I’m old. Seems like it’s the younger folks that are up in arms. I don’t think that fighting in the streets is going to resolve anything. Maybe I’m wrong. My opinion is that revolution is carried out mostly by the younger folks. Maybe their favorite venue for revolution is in the streets. Seems logical, since getting anything done through the legislative process is a losing battle.
_aleph_