Many contend that self-driving trucks and cars will not happen anytime soon for numerous reasons (most of them easily refuted).
One of the reasons is of lack of approval from Congress.
That argument will go on the ash heap of history by the end of the year because a bipartisan House Panel Approves Legislation Speeding Up Deployment of Self-Driving Cars.
An influential U.S. House committee on Thursday approved a revised bipartisan bill on a 54-0 vote that would speed the deployment of self-driving cars without human controls and bar states from blocking autonomous vehicles.
The bill would allow automakers to obtain exemptions to deploy up to 25,000 vehicles without meeting existing auto safety standards in the first year, a cap that would rise to 100,000 vehicles annually over three years.
Automakers and technology companies believe chances are good Congress will approve legislation before year end. They have been pushing for regulations making it easier to deploy self-driving technology, while consumer groups have sought more safeguards. Current federal rules bar self-driving cars without human controls on U.S. roads and automakers think proposed state rules in California are too restrictive.
The House of Representatives will take up the bill when it reconvenes in September, while senators plan to introduce a separate similar measure.
“Our aim was to develop a regulatory structure that allows for industry to safely innovate with significant government oversight,” said Representative Greg Walden, who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
Initially, authors proposed to allow automakers and others to sell up to 100,000 vehicles immediately. Representative Frank Pallone said the phase-in period was essential so “millions of exempted cars will not hit our roads all at once.”
Under the House proposal, states could still set rules on registration, licensing, liability, insurance and safety inspections, but could not set self-driving car performance standards.
Automakers praised committee passage, while Consumer Watchdog privacy director John Simpson said preempting state laws “leaves us at the mercy of manufacturers as they use our public highways as their private laboratories.”
The issue has taken on new urgency since U.S. road deaths rose 7.7 percent in 2015, the highest annual jump since 1966.
Automakers say that without changes in regulations, U.S. self-driving car testing could move to Europe and elsewhere.
25,000 Driverless Cars Coming Right Up
This is playing out exactly as I expected. In 2018, there will be 25,000 cars and trucks on the and highways and in cities, driving themselves. I suspect most initial testing will be on highways. If that goes well, there will be 100,000 self-driving cars on the roads by 2019-2020.
Then, once things go well, and I expect them to go well, most of the trucks on the highways will be driverless.
From driver to driverless interstate trucking will take less than a year once final approval is given, no later than 2022, and possibly as soon as 2020.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
This is a huge development as I believe the main impediments to the roll out of self driving vehicles to be regulatory and legal/liability issues. The technology is basically not so challenging and will come very rapidly.
LikeLike
The major obstacles are still technical. You’ve never coded software if you think it’s political. Better have some good insurance. After the first few wrecks this is going to get ugly fast.
PhxFreddy – MSEE and writer of fine software.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You got that right
Great for the lawyers who will be smelling blood in the water–bad for the victims
I guess we know who else is bribable in congress. They have a lot of nerve drafting legislation to block states from banning these vehicles. States should do what works for them and if it isn’t broken don’t fix it. Congress never did understand capitalism or care about jobs.
LikeLike
+1,
BSEE embedded systems.
LikeLike
Liability and insurance are going to be the key issues, and this bill does nothing in those areas.
LikeLike
Can you recall the waning months of 1999 as the Y2K scare got closer and closer?
The fearless failures in Congress rushed to put liability limits in place on behalf of the clueless clowns in tech who could not even be certain that their computer networks would not crash due to a digital date change.
LikeLike
“The technology is basically not so challenging and will come very rapidly.”
How little you know.
LikeLiked by 1 person
i also think it won’t be as easy as mish predicts…maybe long haul trucking with no dangerous cargo would be best place to begin…this is a huge technological, cultural and political change it won’t come quickly because people will resist
LikeLiked by 1 person
It’s not that people (truckers) will resist, just that the technology is far from being ready, affordable, or reliable. People don’t realize that the trucking industry is not as consolidated as other industries. There are still many many “mom-n-pops” out there–more so than any other industry in the USA.
So many factors and variables involved it’s too much to talk about unless it’s in book form.
Wait till the first autonomous big rig takes out a family in an SUV… the govt will be there to slap the innovation down with a stick.
I’m not saying it won’t eventually happen, just that 2020 is ridiculous.
LikeLike
“…….innovate with significant government oversight,…”
It was fun while it lasted, I guess…………..
LikeLike
Nobody should be surprised congress will pass what ever industry wants. Regular folks have no representation. Corps own the politicians.
I think it’s pretty obvious self drivers with no manual override is many decades away. There are so many cases where mapping apps are wrong.
Hello floods. You should be thinking about all the times you have to ignore GPS. Detours, police directing traffic, construction crews.
LikeLike
Congress always pass what “industry” wants. And “industry” is ran by banksters, PE and VC hacks, patent trolls, regulation profiteers and lobbyists in progressive dystopias. Hence want restrictions preventing anyone from routing around them by innovating and rendering them irrelevant.
When the Politburo formulated 5 year industrial plans, they did so in consultation with “industry” as well…… And no doubt with people in similar positions in industry as the ones our version of a Politburo consults with: The CEOs. Who no doubt did pretty well in the Soviet system as well.
When Congress enacts “financial regulation,” the people they listen to are CEOs of Money Center banks, predominantly Goldman Sachs and a few others. And then they never cease wondering why the only measurable result of all their regulations, is that CEO bonuses at money center banks, particularly Goldman, keep getting bigger and bigger…… “Industrial policy,” “public private partnerships,” and the rest of textbook fascist doctrine, is no different in this instance.
LikeLike
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’m still going to say “Maybe.” All it will take will be some large, ugly incident that ends up being blamed on a self-driving vehicle, regardless of facts. If the builders are smart, they will avoid using self-driving trucks for hazardous materials until they’ve been deployed for several years without incident.
I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, and we still remember the THIS little bit of news: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caldecott_Tunnel_fire
LikeLike
“Under the House proposal, states could still set rules on registration, licensing, liability, insurance and safety inspections, but could not set self-driving car performance standards.”
Forget about raising registration and insurance costs to prevent driverless cars from operating on the road. All it would take is one state to set a minimum level for those costs and the other states would be required to allow driverless vehicles cross state lines yet receive no revenue.
Municipalities would definitely see revenues dry up as the number of tickets issued decrease. The police unions won’t like this.
LikeLike
Your statement makes no sense. driverless cars will result in lower state revenues, if anything. Will the owners even need licenses?
LikeLike
We are definitely in agreement revenues will dry up. I’m pointing out the path of lowest cost for the driverless car service industry.
LikeLike
Isn’t Representative Frank Pallone a major auto dealer in NJ?
LikeLike
Could it be the spike in road deaths due to drivers being distracted by apps. ?
My auto insurance went up because of people being preoccupied by their smart phone . Also too much electronic instrument display on the dash. Every tailgater i see is talking on his phone . Maybe its time to install a camera on my vehicle to record such incidents, but that may distract me also. Good article.
LikeLike
A few things will Weekley their way in via increased premiums if you don’t have them.
1) GPS Tracker – no tracker, no theft recovery cover or only at higher $.
2) Dash cam active with record – don’t have it? Higher $.
3) Driver distraction system – no system, higher $.
Driver distraction monitors eyeball position whilst driving and sets a beeper if taken off the road for a period whilst moving. Eye.socket temperature < face, monitored.
Want lower premiums in a few years? Have the above ready and fitted.
Be sure, a collision with an autonomous vehicle and that vehicle will have a data log of everything that took place prior ready for inspection.
Humans will be shown to be the weakest link.
LikeLike
data logs AND complete hd video logs
LikeLike
This would create a great electronics counter-measures business opportunity.
LikeLike
Autonomous vehicle jammer blinders, miniature electromagnetic pulse bombs.
LikeLike
Typical Congress Critter behavior by working on BS legislation like this and DACA while eschewing more important action on Healthcare and Tax Reform.
Hopefully Congress will approve this self driving legislation as it will quickly expose the limits of this technology.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Certainly not entirely untrue.
Wherever the hype is, it is a sure bet that the leech army comes barging in, crashing the party. Desperate, as always, to insert themselves into value and influence chains others build and create. Have been that way since at least Americans first risked everything to cross an untamed ocean to be left alone from the trash.
It’s similar to Silicon Valley back when it was a place of world changing innovation, and now. Back then, it was a place defined by the likes of Jobs and Wozniak, just mostly on a smaller scale. Putting innovative product out there. If it sold, they made money. If not, they kept refining, or doing something else.
While nowadays, the story is that lawyers, banksters and regulators are some sort of roles that matter to innovation and production, rather than simply the useless roadblocks, leeches and rent seekers that they always have been and always will be.
So now, in the field of “autonomous vehicles,” Anthony Levandovski is kicked out. He wasn’t PC enough, focusing on building autonomous cars and all and putting them on the road, instead of on appearing “sensitive” and on appeasing the lawyers….. To be replaced as influencers, movers and shakers in the field, by a bunch of Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnels….. Ain’t life in our little progressive Dystopia grand?
LikeLike
All right! The beginnings of yet another huge infrastructure vulnerability for adversaries to put in their crisis quiver.
Once it gets prevalent enough with no manual backup, the transportation system of the entire country could potentially be shut down. Remind me again, how long can a major city feed itself without a constant stream of inbound trucks?
One article example of so very many:
U.S. Infrastructure Can Be Hacked With Google, Simple Passwords
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-infrastructure-can-be-hacked-google-simple-passwords-n548661
As revealed in the NSA leaks at the end of the fantastic documentary “Zero Days”, WE already have such a quiver, just not for driverless vehicles yet for obvious reasons.
LikeLike
Nitro Zeus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitro_Zeus
“The information about its existence was raised during research and interviews carried out by Alex Gibney for his Zero Days documentary film. The proposed long term widespread infiltration of major Iranian systems would disrupt and degrade communications, power grid, and other vital systems as desired by the cyber attackers. This was to be achieved by electronic implants in Iranian computer networks.”
BTW, the sources interviewed in the film did not say it was “proposed” – they said it EXISTS.
LikeLike
5 years driverless trucks? Really. Well we’ll see. I really don’t think the greater economy will last that long. But if it does I’d love to see the insurance premiums for autonomous vehicles in NYC.
LikeLike
There are already driverless trucks working in closed off mining operations. Empty highway stretches isn’t that far off.
New York traffic isn’t really on the plate, until complications in simpler environments have been worked out.
I’d personally like to run pilots along the Dalton, between Fairbanks and Prudhoe Bay. In the winter, when it’s frozen, there is virtually no tourists nor any other non trucking traffic there. And the weather provides about as good a test of the weather resilience of Lidar and other awareness sensors as are reliably available anywhere. Once the winter is conquered, how does sensors deal with being caked in in mud……. Or covered by mosquito carcasses. How does the trucks themselves make decisions about speed, following distance etc, when faced with snowdrifts, ice, muddy sinkholes, dust and rocks thrown up by other trucks etc….. And once (not if) one truck screws up and comes sliding sideways down the highway, what does the others do…..
The Dalton is also, despite being a US highway, de facto largely an oil company road. So scheduling of traffic in each direction, can much easier be arranged, for a fee. Split the fee with the native settlements using the highway, and you’ve got yourself a nice little test track. And one that is “real world,” and of genuine economic importance, as well.
The workforce up there, built up to service the 24/7-and-always-critical oil and pipeline operations, are also exactly of the kind you would want available to deal with problems arising from large scale testing of something as massive and critical as an autonomous trucking rollout.
Then, once/if the trucks can make it that harsh environment, they should be reasonably cleared to move on to the next stage: Less structured scheduling and traffic.
LikeLike
I’ve driven in Alaska during the summer and bugs aren’t that much of a problem. Besides, it is easy enough to place deflectors in front of the sensors that keep the mass of bugs from hitting them. The two most difficult driving conditions are mud and ice/snow. For the most part, driving conditions for the road of your choice for testing is fairly flat, no real grades to deal with (1 or 2 percent isn’t a big deal unless you are a rail road running on steel wheels). With mud, the major problem is traction or the area of tread placed on the mud. In a way, you want to “float” on top of the mud. give me a wide enough tire and I can go anywhere on mud. But if the tread is too wide and the tire settles into the mud too low then all I’m doing is trying to push a wall of mud in front of me. It’s about trade offs. Ice is another matter. Nothing confirms the laws of motion more firmly than ice. Articulation adds complexity like you wouldn’t believe. I don’t care how many sensors you install or how many computers you use of their computing strength, the programming needs to make use of previous experience and that can take far too long to develop. Experience on ice covered roads does not translate easily to computer programming. One thing an experienced trucker does in most winter conditions of ice and snow is to disable the ABS system. Brakes are the last thing you touch on icy roads.
But to further your understanding of driving, the ability to drive on mud or ice does not automatically confer sage understanding of driving in New York Metropolitan traffic. That is a different kettle of fish. Sensors will help, but one needs the ability to recognize trouble in the making, a type of pattern recognition that is not easily discernible. One needs to be able to look at people, other drivers, and read their minds, or so it seems. No sensor can tell you that. Many drivers are irrational in their driving habits. Of course if only those vehicles that were under the command of computers aided by sensors were on the road then all might be well. But the government would have to ban and most likely confiscate all vehicles driven by humans or sub humans. That might mean banning bicycles from the road or construction of special roadways for them and foot traffic. Skate boards wild have to go as would roller skates/blades. But few individuals are thinking about these things. Kind of makes you wonder just what will happen in the future.
LikeLike
Exactly. In 20 years, we may see autonomous trucks running between Arizona and New Mexico with freight, but not in a big city or even a town. Plus, trucking is so diverse: Dry van, reefer, tanker, mover, heavy haul, flat bed, etc. Each area has it’s own unique manual component.
I love Mish, but he’s out of his element here.
LikeLike
True enough as long as one sticks ti I-10, I -20, or I-40. But most individuals do not realized that often one is forced to take US or State Highways, a completely different animal. Autonomous will cover dry van and reefer. There is no way that tankers will be allowed to be pulled by driver-less vehicles. The same goes for specialized, the heavy haul, the over-sized, and the flatbed. Heavy Haul and over-sized require permits which must be followed to the letter. Flatbed loads are too varied as are the destination. You pick up a load of irrigation pipe out of Nebraska and the buyer in Idaho wants it delivered in the field, not to the field, but in the field. That ain’t going to happen with a driver-less tractor.
Yes, Mish is out of his element on this one.
LikeLike
The climb over Atigun has grades plenty steeper than 1-2%. You should try it on a bicycle some time 🙂 Or even in a fully loaded truck with the biggest diesel option available.
I don’t really disagree with anything you say. But it is prudent, at a minimum, to verify that what is proposed as a working autonomous driving suite of sensors and software, is at least capable of dealing with all natural challenges that may arise, before letting 40 ton trucks mix it up in too close proximity with people. New York may not generally see North Slope like weather, but you never know….. And if “systems” are too fragile to deal with that eventuality, they really aren’t suited for prime time in more densely populated areas.
The infrastructure associated with the “Haul Road” has lots going for it, wrt autonomous truck development and testing. Not the least of which is drivers and support personell that are, by necessity, among the most knowledgeable, skilled and motivated you’ll find anywhere. When some robodriver runs into a problem, you want someone on site with relevant real world experience. No matter how smart some programmer in Mountain View is, if the extent of his driving has been limited to sitting bumper to bumper in a Prius between his office and his Silicon Valley apartment, his judgment of what the black box is saying, will quite often miss something someone who has “been there, done that, plenty of times,” would catch right away. And that comes in addition to the road being largely a company road much of the year, with all the scheduling flexibility that brings compared to most highways.
LikeLike
Trust me, I know the experience from a personal point of view. I was a Class A driver for a time. I will point out that now every experience can be translated into knowledge easily transferred to another. I know the terror of Ice roads when your drive axles start to slip and that trailer with 24 tons on its back starts to swing around (jack knife). Correcting that mistake is about timing and feel of the road and wheel and the drives and a whole lot of other things. If the same thing happened to you, could I tell you how to correct the problem? It would take too long and either you be on the side of the road with a crushed in cab or you would be down the road breathing a sigh of relief. My only advice is “KEEP YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE!” Otherwise it is a combination of steering and wheel speed. I will tell you that I was lucky that time. I did everything right but don’t ask me to enumerate.
LikeLike
The most amazing thing about this is our politicians finally found something they can agree on!
LikeLike
100% yeas? You are dreaming if you think money didn’t change hands.
LikeLike
Exactly.
It’s amazing how much “agreement” can be purchased on certain issues.
LikeLike
“PURCHASED” is the operative word…
LikeLike
Move over Uber. There is a Ford in your future.
LikeLike
To evade and escape hurricanes. floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, blizzards and any other natural or man made disaster, I’ll keep my independent ICE vehicle…The techno-kool-aid crowd will die when their 100 mile range batteries discharge, or their navigation systems crash from lack of guidance sources…
LikeLike
Technology marches on. Driverless cars and trucks may well prove to be safer than the current crop of drivers who live on their cell phones.
I drive a 5-speed stick and ignore by cell while on the road. Even a “hands-free device” shifts your attention away from the road ahead so we need this Technology.
LikeLike
Apple is introducing a “drive mode” that kicks in when the phone detects it is moving above a certain speed:
https://www.macrumors.com/2017/06/05/do-not-disturb-while-driving/
Looks like it will only work on text messages. Hopefully that’s just for now, and later on will autoreply to email and phone calls too.
If Apple has any brains left in the organization they’ll figure out that having a do not distrub mode (unless you are whitelisted) all the time would be handy. Getting pretty tired of robocalls all the time.
LikeLike
On your IPhone, go to settings->Do not disturb and turn on “manual.” Then below, “allow calls” from “all contacts”, or whatever subset you care to.
The block on texting to moving phones, seem like a nice, backhanded attempt to force automakers to pay Carplay licencing fees…..
If a phone app is the fob that starts the car, you can even block texts to just that phone. Not to the phones belonging to your teenage daughters in the back seat.
LikeLike
…”25,000 vehicles without meeting existing auto safety standards in the first year”….
Exactly WHAT SAFETY STANDARDS are waived for these things?
OK< maybe front seat airbags….but what else?? This is amazing…??!!
LikeLike
Air bags are not effected. The safety regulations being scrapped are those that only apply to self-driving vehicles – like requiring a licensed driver in the vehicle who can take control if malfunction occurs.
LikeLike
Accidents involving driverless cars will, initially at least, receive a lot more publicity than even fatal accidents of cars with human drivers, and many are likely to be taken off the road needlessly.
Ultimately, they will prove to be safer but there will no point in individuals owning their own self-driving car when they will be able use their cell phones to get a self-driving, inexpensive taxi almost as quickly.
Driving, especially a stick shift, will become a lost art – like jousting.
LikeLike
Get the body bags ready
LikeLike
Seeing how well state-of-the-art robots do with simple tasks (for humans) fills me with confidence:
LikeLike
For all the resources Honda has thrown at Asimo over the years, he is still little more than a mascot trying to mimic an autistic kid. And he’s as good as it gets, humanoid robot wise.
Not taking anything away from the guys working in humanoid robotics. They are making progress and solving very hard problems. It’s just that the problems are so vast, and that their results are so readily compared with living creatures that does it all so effortlessly.
Simply standing still on two moderate sized feet (or even one, now), was only made possible recently. Ditto keeping upright when being pushed from various angles. And getting up after a fall. Not sure if any of them have the situational awareness to use walls etc. to keep themselves upright, if one is available. Probably not, as that would involve knowing which surfaces are appropriate to lean against, and which are not. Bracing themselves against an old lady in a walking chair probably isn’t the best PR…. Ditto for a thin window on the third floor… Or a Picasso…
And then there’s the infinitely more complex issue of adapting, as all the various sensors, motors and surfaces starts showing wear. Any mechanical machine used for real work, will start wearing out. To varying degrees, depending on exactly how it is used. And it will need some degree of end user adaptability as well.
Living bodies evolve and show wear as well. Yet in living organisms, the same balance algorithms for standing upright that first work for a 1 year old body, works throughout life, as they are constantly recalibrated to fit with the constantly evolving body they are controlling. Even through accidents, where one leg may be disabled temporarily or permanently. For very specific tasks, robots may not need quite that level of sophistication to be useful, but without at least some of it, they will always remain very fragile beings. Suitable, perhaps, for the equivalent of the zoo. But not for the wild, wider world.
LikeLike
All sounds kinda creepy to me. I don’t plan to buy one…ever
LikeLike
Ummm field proven highly reliable/redundant true drive-by-wire cars don’t even exist yet. A very basic prerequisite to self-driving cars. And self-driving car costs will be prohibitive. Expected per unit cost in excess of $1M each.
LikeLike
These phony corrupted DC politicians can ban states from blocking self-driving cars but they can’t ban states or cities from defying Federal law and declaring themselves sanctuary cities for illegal foreigners.
Man oh man. Have we crossed the line of no return or what?
The unintended consequences (and there are very many) will stall the widespread rollout of self-driving cars. I won’t see it in my lifetime (thank God). The push back will be tremendous.
What are they going to do? Mandate all of us to buy a self-driving car or else take away our birthdays? Throw us in jail if we continue to drive our current cars? Are we going full-blown police state?
You can mess with a lot of American rights. Don’t mess with our cars.
You won’t see any widespread use of self-driving car for 30 years, if then.
This is not like going from a rotary dial to a digital telephone.
LikeLike
if you can pay the higher insurance premiums for legacy non automated vehicles, you will undoubtedly still be able to self drive on public roadways, assuming those roadways still exist, are maintained and drivable.
LikeLike
Be sure, a collision with an autonomous vehicle and that vehicle will have a data log of everything that took place prior ready for inspection – evidential ready.
Humans will be shown to be the weakest link.
A few things will weezle their way in via increased insurance premiums if you don’t have them.
1) GPS Tracker – no tracker, no theft recovery cover or only at higher $.
2) Dash cam active with record – don’t have it? Higher $.
3) Driver distraction system – no system, higher $.
Driver distraction monitors eyeball position whilst driving and sets a beeper if taken off the road for a period whilst moving. Eye.socket temperature < face, monitored.
Want lower premiums in a few years? Have the above ready and fitted.
Don't screw with an autonomous vehicle – it will have more evidence than you do.
LikeLike
Concerning the internet of things, where every day items now including vehicles are somehow connected to the internet as software and communications are in everything, Cambridge University’s Professor Ross Anderson says the issue is safety rather than privacy and confidentiality.
He says (@ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLiE0Nr8VOE ) that whilst people might not object too much to authorities like the FBI having a golden key to access data
“….people will be very much more nervous about the idea that the FBI will have golden master key that will enable them to break in to your car remotely and turn it into a weapon that could kill you”. He notes such key might be available to other intelligence and police agencies around the world.
This issue of safety will not stop autonomous vehicles of course but it seems a legitimate and acute concern.
LikeLike
“This issue of safety will not stop autonomous vehicles of course but it seems a legitimate and acute concern.”
Yep, it will be the umpteenth infrastructure vulnerability and if no manual backup in the autonomous vehicles is provided, it will be a -HUGE- one.
But critical systems are always so well designed against hacking, right?
465k patients told to visit doctor to patch critical pacemaker vulnerability
A year after calling advisory “false and misleading,” maker warns patients to patch
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/465k-patients-need-a-firmware-update-to-prevent-serious-pacemaker-hacks/
LikeLike
This is the 21st century version of “Nero fiddled while Rome burned” on part of both the Congress and the author of the article.
LikeLike
it’s comical to me how these autonomous vehicle posts draw naysayers like flys to honey.
LikeLike
It’s comical how people were warning against the vulnerability of the Internet of Things:
21 Oct 16
Hacked Cameras, DVRs Powered Today’s Massive Internet Outage
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/hacked-cameras-dvrs-powered-todays-massive-internet-outage/
LikeLike
People just give their opinion, the fact that so many disagree with the theme of AV doesn’t mean they are out looking for somewhere to express that. It just as equally says that Mish has a minority/futuristic view on this, and much as the discussion is nescessary, no one much is going to feel he needs to be coddled over it.
LikeLike
Its comical to me how these excellent and mighty fine full auto pilot capabilities are not up and flying the friendly skies on United, Amtrak, or Holland America cruise lines, and a host of those rationalized and predictable intercity subway routes, like the Baghdad by the bay’s Bart system, especially with those tax payer funded deep pockets for lawyers to sue when the binary machine code failure with mass casualties and deaths happen; curious, but apparently those two recent naval collisions on the high seas between state of the art destroyers and container ships were also on self piloting cruise control.
LikeLike
if automakers praise passage it is because their lobbyists wrote the bill
LikeLike
Well, Mish, if you’re right, then we have GOT to find some sort of meaningful, or at least profitable enough, work for those who get pushed from their jobs driving. If we automate so much, too quickly, we’ll see a terrible backlash. People HAVE to have something to do, or they become lost.
I haven’t got alot of personal interest in self driving autos, but that’s just me. However, businesses utilizing these I can see happening.
LikeLike
Valid concerns.
However……”WE have to” find a way to employ those is a nebulous, but good-sounding statement. In the REAL world, those “THEY will have to” find another occupation.
I don’t think Henry Ford thought HE had to find jobs for the buggy-whip makers.
I don’t think McDonald’s management thinks THEY need to find jobs for the cashiers displaced by the kiosks.
Did AT&T find jobs for all their telephone ‘operators’ when they put in ‘dial’ telephones….?
Jobs will change. Some people will be hurt….but life goes on….adapt….or perish.
LikeLike
Meanwhile after a year of “part 107” certification for commercial small unmanned aircraft systems (drones), there have been no reported incidents of harm to people or property damage in excess of $500 reported to the FAA.
Some might say that’s because of the over-restrictive rules concerning sUAS operation. Others might say that people aren’t reporting (highly unlikely). Still others might say that the rules are worthless and the things aren’t really all that dangerous. Doesn’t matter though, I’m certain there will be more restrictions put into the reauthorization act if and when Congress gets around to debating it.
LikeLike
Hi Mish. I work with autonomous components (automotive 24/77 radar, lidar, camera systems, surround vision systems, gps, intelligent camera systems, etc). The systems are not safe in autonomous applications. For system development the basics of development for the electronics functional safety have been met by some of the manufacturers but not for autonomous applications. Fancy words for it’s well built with backups but will cause harm in when used in autonomous. Been a while.
LikeLike
Is there any verbiage for limiting liability of the manufacturers of the components or car companies?
LikeLike
I have no argument about the technology improving.
This has a smell to it. I can see why the powers like it. It’s another form of social control.
LikeLike
As in who says your self driver will take you wherever you want to go? “You are restricted in that area.” “You didn’t earn enough good boy credits to go anywhere this weekend” “your car won’t allow you to return to your rural home and is being redirected to the nearest approved human cockroach village”.
It’s the greedy that want power over every person that will make this tech a nightmare. Just my opinion.
LikeLike
Well……assuming we still have our God-given natural human rights to protect ourselves – and reiterated in the 2nd Amendment – I’d just put a bullet into the computer mainframe – and get out and get a different auto-car.
LikeLike
Comments here on self-driving used to run about 50/50 pro/con. Now comments run about 5/95 pro/con.
It’s because those of us in favor of self-driving don’t feel it’s necessary anymore to waste the time and energy defending the obviously inevitable.
Enjoy your echo chamber for the next few years Luddites.
LikeLike
Just another unconstitutional federal mandate. Drain that swamp Mr President.
This is unconstitutional and Trump should not sign it. This not what are congressional representatives were elected to be doing. The states have jurisdiction on this. Further how is it in our best interest to allow safe operation to be set aside. Insurance companies, AMA etc should be screening. Great idea but stupid government regulating.
LikeLike
Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
LikeLike
agreed – right on schedule
2017 – extensive beta testing of level 4
2018 – retail sales level 3;, 10.000 units level 4 beta testing ( US only )
2019 – limited retail sales lvl 4 – 100,000 units
2020 – lvl 4 sales 3% of market ( 500,000 units )
2021 – lvl 4 sales 5% of market (1,000,000) ; level 5 extensive beta testing
2022 – lvl 4 sales 15% of market (3,000,000); level 5 limited retail 100,000
2023 – lvl 4 sales 20% of market (4,000,000); level 5 ~500,000 units
2024 – lvl 4 & 5 30% of market ( 5,000,000)
2024 – lvl 4 & 5 35% of market ( 5,500,000)
2025 – 40% of market (6,500,000)
market share takes another 5 years to reach 60%
LikeLike
This is good. So if you’re correct, somehow autonomous trucking will replace 120,000 jobs of the 4mil available by 2020. So that’s 120K ex-cons and social retards off our highways, home, committing various crimes in your neighborhoods. LOL!
LikeLike
So like I drove combat missions in Iraq…Today, my daily beater is a 2016 STI…I’m happy to give all you “praise the machine” passengers as long as I am equally as free to drive my car if I want…I like driving…You guys act as if nobody does…
LikeLike
Please tell us what happens after the first self-driving car kills somebody.
“Well don’t worry—we just need to work out the bugs”
We don’t run a society where consumer products are explicitly ALLOWED to kill people in the course of operation—even if the statistical probability of deaths resulting from the product is very low.
LikeLike
I personally would have a severe problem with buying any self-driving car if there was any NON-ZERO PROBABILITY that it would kill me or anyone else for that matter—even if that probability was exceedingly small.
How about you? Would you buy such a car in REAL LIFE?
Let’s talk “real world” now.
LikeLike
Yep! There’s an occasional mention of having ‘pilotless’ airplanes soon. Hmmm….when YOU can honestly tell me YOU will get on one…..THEN I will believe it will happen.
I have met many people who will/might get on a ‘driverless’ car. NONE who have ever said they’d get on a ‘pilotless’ airplane. ….we’ll see…….but I’m not holding my breath!
LikeLike
If the “self-driving” cars hit the market, I’ll let the “non-Luddite” people be the first “guinea pigs” and then wait for at least several years to pass with ZERO fatalities before “taking the leap”.
LikeLike
Mish
What do you think of this approach?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-22/these-truckers-work-alongside-the-coders-trying-to-eliminate-their-jobs
LikeLike