According to the latest national weather forecast, Hurricane Irma is headed straight for Florida. Puerto Rico will get hit first, on Wednesday. Both Puerto Rico and Florida have declared a state of emergency as Irma Strengthens to Category 4.
Above: Visible-wavelength satellite image of Hurricane Irma as of 15Z (11 am EDT) Monday, September 4, 2017. Image credit: RAMMB / CIRA @ CSU.
Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties, an announcement made minutes after the National Hurricane Center increased Irma to a Category 4 storm with 130-mph winds that are expected to increase to 150 mph during its trek west.
South Florida could begin feeling the first impacts from Irma late this week, and National Hurricane Center forecasters urged that preparations be completed by Friday.
While a shift in the forecast track away from Florida is still a possibility that would spare the Sunshine State the brunt of a direct hit, most models had settled on one of two scenarios — a Matthew-like storm skimming the east coast, or a system punching north through the keys to bisect the Peninsula.
The tip of Florida, including Miami, was in the 5-day track forecast cone as of Monday evening.
As of the 5 p.m. Monday advisory from the hurricane center, Irma was a 130-mph Category 4 hurricane located 490 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The official forecast is for it to strengthen to 150 mph – still a Cat 4 – as it reaches the islands late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Irma could fluctuate in strength over the next several days depending on how much land it touches on its westward journey.
Threat Increasing for Cuba, Florida from Intensifying Irma
Weather Underground reports Threat Increasing for Cuba, Florida from Intensifying Irma.
Based on Hurricane Hunter measurements, NHC raised Irma’s top sustained winds at 5:00 pm EDT to 130 mph, making it a Category 4 storm. Irma is expected to be a major Category 4 hurricane when it passes very close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola on Thursday. As of 5 pm EDT Monday, Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, and Hurricane Watches are up for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday night. An evacuation decision for the Florida Keys may have to come as early as Tuesday, since the Keys require 3+ days to evacuate. As of 5 pm EDT, far southeast Florida, including Miami, was in the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Irma.
Our most reliable intensity models–the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, LGEM, and DSHIPS–predicted in their Monday morning runs that Irma would peak as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with 130 – 160 mph winds, and the official NHC forecast of a Category 4 hurricane when it passes by the islands this week looks reasonable. The only major impediment to Irma’s strength would appear to be interaction with land; a close pass or direct hit on Hispaniola or Cuba could potentially damage or destroy the hurricane’s inner core and knock it down to Category 2 or 3 strength.
Possible Tracks
Clearly, there are lots of possibilities here. The best case for Florida is the worst case for Cuba. A direct, sustained hit on Cuba could weaken Irma if it takes one of the Western paths. A central path that bypasses Cuba directly then heads straight North over Florida is likely the worst case for Florida.
The models have shifted dramatically in the past 12 hours and could shift again. The Weather Underground says that it is unclear exactly why the modeled track shifted so dramatically on Sunday night.
Bottom line from the Weather Underground: “It is becoming more likely that Irma will move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba for significant impacts. There is an increasing chance that Irma will strike the U.S. late in the weekend or early next week, quite possibly as a major hurricane. It is still too soon to predict the location or timing of any U.S. landfall with confidence.”
Here are some Hurricane Preparation Tips from the US government.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
There still time to order your preparations and get them from Amazon.
There’s
Firstname… we seem to have lost the connection… Fistname? Firstname??
I’m back. A Whole Foods drone just left an avocado on my driveway at its moment of optimum ripeness and I didn’t want to miss it.
As I was going to say, they have king-size waterbed bags for fifty bucks that are 20 mil vinyl. You can store a lot of clean water in one of those (skip the fungus inhibitor). Even if you have a flood just keep the teat out of the sewage and you’re good. I suppose it would work for margaritas too; just add FEMA ice and you won’t care your house is destroyed.
I guess if you weren’t there in time to catch it that is how it ended up on the driveway 🙁 .
But at least you’re back 🙂 .
Glad to see you go to weather underground. They are by far the best.
Have you looked at wunderground.com lately? Remember the chart/graphic showing the next 10 days? I switched to intellicast.com
Nah, don’t pay much attention to hurricanes these days, but once upon a time I did, and found Jeff Masters to be the best of everyone. Tracking hurricanes is pretty damn tricky to begin with.
I like spaghettimodels.com, Mike’s weather page.
Lots of charts with links to the sources.
Key West folks need to be moving inland ASAP.
Key West folks haven’t been afraid of hurricanes lately, I hope this storm stays away from the Keys. I like in Miami and some stores are running out of water already.
Love the way that the news totally ignores the American and British Virgin Islands….like we don’t exist…. Lots of Americans and Brits there…lots… I have a house there. I have a daughter there and a grand daughter…..and many friends…. no news. It’s PR or what is going to happen in the States….Bother….more twisted news…. whatever suits… Balderdash…to everyone……
We are ALL supposed to count!!!
You’re all too rich to count, or something along those lines… spoken in jest obviously.
Right mate, I’ve come up with a shortlist:
1. If you are on a yacht, sail her to your favourite anchorage, drop anchor, put on a life jacket, take a smal drill with a half inch bit, find a nice section of bilge that doesn’t remind you of how much the yacht cost or all the good times, and scuttle her, then paddle ashore on the liferaft as the sun goes down.
2. If you are a tourist, take lots of selfies so that you can do before and after on Twitter, make sure that your clothes are not designed to travel over 100 mph for maximum effect.
3. If you are rich, sit in your bunker now and don’t leave it till we send someone over. You will be surprised how long these storms go on for.
4. If you are out for a stroll and a hurricane arrives without warning, then tie yourself to the leeward side of a coconut palm. It is not a bad idea to carry some string and a helmet at all times.
If I am able to find any more good advice, I will let you know.
Yours faithfully,
Cedric.
Seriously though, in the Vrgin Islands they will be ok , relief will be there if needed, mostly inconvenience. Property… I would not be thinking of that for now. Not much more you can do but make sure the people you are concerned over are somewhere tight.
Do people somehow not make the connection between Sir Richard’s (Branson) empire and the BVI? I always thought it was a billion dollar/pound awareness campaign for the islands.
#VirginLivesMatter
it’ll end up in the gulf again,hope the levees hold this time
no doubt multi trillion deficits are here,2 trillion this year and wait for it……3T in 2018,holy cow batman,DC is burnin through cash like it grows on trees
It’s almost certainly going to hit Florida. it’s just a question of where.
It’s too early to say where Irma will hit. This latest ‘cone’ shows it missing Florida AND Cuba and heading into the Gulf.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030008.shtml?cone#contents
ironically, after stating it’s too early to predict where irma’s eye makes landfall, you misinterpret the “cone” graphic as a miss of FL and Cuba…
the projected path is anywhere within the cone
Even if it goes into the gulf, it will hit Florida’s west coast.
Meanwhile, “Al Gore Outsold On Kindle By An E-Book Debunking ‘An Inconvenient Sequel”.
It’s now a cat 5 with 175 mph winds. Gusts up to 215 mph. It will almost certainly be weaker when it hits land, but it will do a lot of damage.
Mish Please Don’t forget Montana and LA . I’ve seen some rally bad stuff , very bad breathing. Incredible infernal hell like 🔥
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