In a move many people thought would never happen, the Catalan parliament approved a referendum that would allow a vote on the region’s independence from Spain. The central government seeks intervention from the Constitutional Court. But short of invasion who is going to stop the vote?
The Spanish government has accused the Catalan Parliament of committing a “constitutional and democratic atrocity” by approving legislation to allow next month’s bitterly disputed independence referendum to go ahead.
On Wednesday night, the region’s ruling, pro-sovereignty coalition – which has a majority in the Catalan Parliament – managed to get the referendum law passed despite angry objections from opposition MPs, who complained that usual parliamentary procedures had been disregarded.
The legislation passed by 72 votes after 52 opposition MPs walked out of the chamber in Barcelona in protest at the end of an ill-tempered, 11-hour session.
The move was denounced by the Spanish government, which once again said it would do everything in its legal and political power to stop the vote from going ahead on 1 October.
The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, ordered government lawyers to file a complaint with the country’s constitutional court so that the vote could be annulled.
The public prosecutor’s office also said it was preparing a case against Catalan parliamentary officials – including the speaker, Carme Forcadell – for disobeying previous court orders forbidding legislative steps towards independence.
Catalan separatists insist the wealthy north-eastern region has a political, economic and cultural right to self-determination.
But Madrid is opposed to independence, arguing that it is a violation of the constitution, and has refused to offer a Scottish-style referendum on the matter.
Three months ago, Puigdemont announced that the referendum would be held on 1 October and that voters would be asked: “Do you want Catalonia to be an independent country in the form of a republic?”
More than 80% of participants opted for independence in the 2014 poll – although only 2.3 million of Catalonia’s 5.4 million eligible voters took part.
The Catalan government insists that the results of the October vote will be legally binding. If successful, the regional government will declare independence from Spain 48 hours after the result is in and set about building a sovereign state.
According to a poll at the end of July, 49.4% of Catalans are against independence while 41.1% support it. However, a poll this week found that, were the referendum to go ahead, the yes campaign would take 72% of the vote on a turnout of 50%.
The Catalan government has not set a threshold for minimum turnout, arguing the vote will be binding regardless of the level of participation.
Spain Moves to Block Catalonia Referendum
The Wall Street Journal reports Spain Moves to Block Catalonia Referendum on Independence.
The Spanish government on Wednesday asked a top court to block the Catalan regional government’s bid to hold a referendum on independence, the latest clash in what has become Spain’s most pressing political issue.
“The government has asked the Constitutional Court to declare null and void the adopted agreements,” Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría said. “We are defending the rule of law in Spain and democracy in Catalonia,” she added.
The clash between the central government in Madrid and regional leaders in Barcelona, the capital of Catalonia, has been building for decades and began to accelerate when a financial crisis hit Spain several years ago. The economy has since recovered and support for independence in Catalonia has flagged somewhat. A majority of Catalans, however, still support a vote on whether the region should separate from Spain.
What It All About?
- Tax Collection – Catalonia is the industrial superstate of Spain. Catalonia sends far more to Madrid than it gets back. Secession would cost Spain approximately 20% of tax revenue.
- Language – Catalan is not a dialect of Spanish, but a language that developed independently out of the vulgar Latin spoken by the Romans who colonized the Tarragona area. It is spoken by 9 million people in Catalonia, Valencia, the Balearic Isles, Andorra and the town of Alghero in Sardinia. Since the early 1980s, the imposition of a system known as “immersion,” with Catalan as the only vehicular language in state schools, has guaranteed everyone educated in the past 30 years has a command of it. However, thanks to the presence of Spanish in daily life and the media, virtually all Catalans are perfectly bilingual.
- History – Dating back to 1150 and 1707 Catalonia was not part of Spain. Numerous kings tried with no success to end the Catalan language. Those attempts ended in 1931. The Telegraph has a nice historical perspective on Why Catalonia wants independence from Spain.
Map
Eurozone Implications
The independence referendum is not a vote to leave the EU or the Eurozone.
As an independent country, Catalonia would have to apply for membership to the EU and to the Eurozone.
Mish Take
It’s certainly easy enough to draw a map of Spain without Catalonia.
I am in favor of just that. Short of invasion who is going to stop the vote?
Moreover, Catalonia could adopt the euro as its national currency whether or not it was officially part of the Eurozone by treaty. It would not have the ability to print euros.
Inability to print money at will is an ideal setup.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The 20th and 21st centuries have shown two general approaches to dealing with separatist movements:
The Western, democratic model: allow a vote to go forward, and campaign vigorously in favor of keeping the country together. This is the approach used in the Quebec referenda in the 80s and 90s, and in the recent Scottish referendum. In these situations, separatism inevitably fails at the ballot box (and as a movement), because the issue is debated in the light of day and it is clear that the will of the people in question is being fairly considered.
The Eastern, Soviet/EU model: issue threats, recriminations, arrest warrants or promises of severe collective punishment if a vote is attempted (or doesn’t go your way). This is the approach that the Soviet Union under Gorbachev used to attempt to stop the Baltic Republics from leaving the USSR, and is also close to the methods used by Brussels in the Brexit referendum. In both situations, not only did the threats backfire — and lead to a decisive vote to leave — but they also led to further restiveness elsewhere. In the case of the Soviet Union, the Communist Party’s authoritarian response to the Baltic Republics led to nationalists in Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan joining separatism, and the breakup of the USSR. In the case of the EU, the threats and nastiness led not only to a vote for Brexit, but the hardening of pro-Brexit sentiment after the vote, even amongst many who voted to remain.
Looks like the Spanish government is choosing the Eastern, Soviet/EU model to Catalunya; this means that a successful vote to leave is highly likely. It also means that other parts of Spain that have chafed under central rule by Madrid may also attempt their own votes and declarations of independence, including the Basque country, as happened in the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
It amazes me how often people refuse to learn from history.
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You are right, but there is also a kind of referenda (the Big Brother kind) where everything is under control, i.e. MSM, veiled threats, distortions of history and economy, and 20+ years of indoctrination of youth from school to University and beyond. When a majority of the population has been fed the notion of a common foe, those who are willing to vote will blindly vote for their tribe. A -real or imagined- common enemy makes wonders to unite people. Catalan nationalists are a thoroughly corrupt lot, willing to violate the Spanish Constitution they swore to enforce. They are supremacists, and so are the Basque nationalists and other similar tribes in Spain, which might end up as Yugoslavia 2.0.
In the XIXth century there was a similar explosion of ‘cantonalist’ movements which, for one, led to a smallish Spanish town to proclaim themselves independent and then declare war to the Kaiser. It would be funny if it had not led to three civil wars in les than three centuries.
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Wow, self-determination is a “constitutional atrocity.”
Then again, this is the EU … Brussels will tell them to keep voting until they get it “right.”
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Wow, self-determination is a “constitutional atrocity.”
It is because it actually violates only valid constitution in Spain which is the only one that counts. Also if only %70 of %50 vote for independence (so %35 of the population) how is that “self determination”?
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Uh, it’s self-determination of the Catalonian people.
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“Inability to print money at will is an ideal setup.”
Yesss!!!
If only Tsipras and Varoufakis had shown that much sense……..
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Catalan or Gothland is culturally distinct from the sleepy brown North Africans in Madrid. The Goths were a Slavic people living on the Black Sea. Goths fled into the Roman Empire from the Huns in 376 AD. After several generations of Roman oppression the Goths defeated Rome, sacked Rome, and migrated West to settle in Catalan. The Goths are the most productive, industrious, prosperous people of Spain.
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The Basques are also in the area, and they are the innovators in Spain…
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Sorry, but…
1) Goths were not Slavic, but Eastern Germanic people.
2) Most Visigoths actually settled in north-central Spain, not in north-eastern.
3) First Catalonian state was established by the Frankish Empire (so-called Spanish Mark). On the contrary, the Kingdom of Asturias, predecessor of Castile, was founded by Visigothic hero Pelagius (Pelayo) who started Reconquista against the Moors.
4) Modern Catalonians are leftist to the core. They are the same people who want “migrants. not tourists”
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Thank you.
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“…first Catalonian state…”
What state???? There never was such a thing
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The county of Barcelona, later the Kingdom of Aragon. Wilfred the Hairy was of gothic descent. The whole of Septimania spoke similar to Catalan (e.g. occitan etc.), the language was surpressed in 20th century by France. Co-prince of Andorra? French head of state. History is complex.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Catalonia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Septimania
But not as complex as modern politics…I think.
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True: Catalans are blond and blue-eyed. Search Google images, please.
And the Goths, of Germanic origin – in Visigothic Spain, that is, Goths from the west – had the capital of their kingdom in Toledo, a hundred kilometres from Madrid.
Spain -before the current brutal immigration imposed by the globalists- was one of the most genetically uniform countries, a mixture of Iberians and Celts, which formed the Celtiberian population, then merged with the scarce Roman and then Germanic (although minority), and which built the Hispanic civilization, very important in the world until the middle of the eighteenth century, but which sank from the nineteenth century onwards because of the destruction carried out by Napoleon and then the British empire.
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What a fake victory that would be: from the clutches of Madrid to those of Brussels. EU court rejects Hungary & Slovakia’s bid to stop refugee flow.
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Yes.
Brussells will be happy with the demise of the nation state too.
The divided are easier to rule, distract, mould.
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They take only the benefits without the responsibilities – throw them out these cheapos
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Yeah….make space for the new boss…. throw everyone out!!!
Lololol.
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Looks like a serious Constitutional issue has been created which does not promise to end peaceably. Madrid will never allow secession and the hard line Catalonian independence folks have two alternatives: either create civic disruptions and violence to get their way or re-trench and curse/grumble/more of same. I think the response by Madrid to this threat will determine which way the independence movement shifts.
I hope the independence movement does not institute an insurgency as was seen in the Basque Separatist movement that took many Spanish military and police lives by assassinations and bombings (in the style of the IRA). But this turn of events does not, IMHO, indicate that these differences can or ever will be negotiated to an acceptable solution.
I fear that this referendum and Madrid’s response will be the first shot of the Second Spanish Insurgency and that many will lose their lives fighting over this issue.
Query:” Has the Catalonian Parliament accepted that if they get independence that they will also accept and bear their proportional share of Spanish sovereign debt ??
“Not Bloody likely” sayeth the Sage…….
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Life is full of choices. If someone no long wants to be a ‘part’ of you, why not just let them go? Is keeping Catalonia ‘worth’ a bloody insurrection? Here in the U.S. I would LOVE to see California declare independence. Good riddance. Cut the malcontents off!
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The last time a state seceded from the Union, things did not go well and were certainly not handled democratically.
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Today:
El presidente del Gobierno: “No habrá referéndum de autodeterminación” en Cataluña.
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A funny joke. The second one in two years, actually
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They won’t allow it. La Guardia esta registrando los sedes de material de referendum, y mucho mas . La cuestion es si antes o despues de la Diada. Creo despues.
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I know them. I’ve lived among them for more than a decade. My ex-wife was a Catalan nationalist –and a socialist! They might get slowed down for a while, but only an army would make them stop. It’s a win-win situation for them. Either they get away with it, or they will claim to be Victims of a Repressor post-Francoist regime, which will only reinforce their stance.
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I agree, the process will not be stopped, it will go on and on .
What I actually am more wary of is the rest of Spain becoming like Cataluña.
All the definitions are changing in Spain.
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Despite what the mainstream media constantly trumpets, the trend today is slowly but surely in the direction of smaller political entities, greater self-government, localization, de-centralization and bilateralism in trade in place of multilateral government management.
We can add to that a growing willingness to vote for “minor” or “unapproved” parties and candidates, a distrust of elites, of “experts” and technocrats and a disintegration of what has been called the “national consensus” or “social consensus”. People are – en masse, slowly and perniciously – becoming more independent, less trusting of authorities and more rebellious.
This won’t go over well with big unitary authorities or Our Leaders but it is happening.
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Well yes, but at the same time these smaller political units abdicate to trans-national architecture determined by global corporations and finance, and the scale required for current global production logistics. These smaller political units are not all that independant.
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+100
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@Kreditanstalt
So according to your premise centralize democracies are authoritarian and run by elites and small non centralized “countries? kingdoms?” are enlighten and what proletarian? Have you seen how they forced the vote for the “referendum”? What really is going on is that people and parties that have no possibility to ever amount to anything in a bigger country want to create smaller one where they can crown themselves as king. Following the maxim: ” better to be the head of a mouse than the tail of a lion”
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Take a look at what happened in Yugoslavia after their breakup. Independent Republics run by by bigger thieves then the ones before. I was there several years ago and let me tell you there are people not getting paid for a month, two or three. Young educated people leaving in droves for a better life elsewhere while foreigners buy land on the cheap. Elderly impoverished due smaller retirement payouts and inflation. These breakups are not the romantic scenarios that most people fantasize about , but exchanges of one crook for for a bigger one. Better the one you know.
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What about Hong Kong and China? Mexico and Spain? Macau and China? Brazil and Portugal? Argentina and Spain? India and the UK? Korea and Taiwan with Japan? Congo with Belgium?
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Regarding the question of adopting euro and not being able to print money, i.e. not to have independent monetary policy, it is interesting to compare the EU countries that kept their currency with those that did not, especially the newer or poorer countries. Who did better?
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It will also set EU for or against Spain.
If the EU recognise and accept Catalonia, against Spain.
If the EU reject Catalonia, for Spain.
Underneath this I think the EU influence encourages seperatist movements as a higher power is now available to belong to – the EU – forget Spain.
How will this play out if it encourages other regions of the EU to separate, think Northern Italy.
Some in the EU would welcome that as it divides monolithic power blocks and makes it easier to control them in Brussells.
Spain et al need a wake up call as to where this is going over the next 25 yrs – THE END OF THE EUROPEAN NATIONS STATE.
Ultimely it will go full circle with breakaways from the EU too when they are seen as the new country.
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The aim of the EU is the end of the European Nation State.
No Borders, single currency, flag etc.
This is just one event in what will become a serial catalogue.
Nation states breaking up with allegiance to EU, not the.local state.
If not handled carefully I see violence. Now, it’s obvious it could happen. In future it will be smaller regions vs EU when decisions are not in favour of the smaller geographies.
I bet some in the EU are quite keen on this idea but dare not say so.
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If there were actually a European political culture with trans-national parties and elections, this would not be so bad. Seceding from the EU or from Italy are not all that different. Being disadvantaged by Italy or Spain is no worse than being disadvantaged by the EU, and often has centuries of oppression and repression to fuel sentiments. The EU is relatively new, and staying in will be determined largely by economic and other material necessities of life.
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The EU can impose trade barriers to breakaway areas.
It works unless the EU needs your trade to keep unemployment down.
The current Brexit and the expected job losses will be a case in point.
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I think it would be worse even, power would be more distantly dictated, national identity would just dissolve into some faceless monoculture a long way away. EU is as interested in financial power as political power too. If you had lived in these countries, if you had seen the simple, buoyant culture there replaced by “something else” you would understand differently maybe.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/848559/European-Union-Guy-Verhofstadt-Brexit-France-transnational-vote-European-Parliament
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Catalonia should be allowed to shake off the oppression of the Madrid government, so enjoying the same delights long available to the free people of Gibraltar.
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The Spanish government could have worked out a deal with more regional autonomy a long time ago. That would undercut and obviate the need for complete independance. Catalonian separatism is not fueld by foreign policy or defense needs.
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Spain has been clumsy in this respect, the regions do enjoy more power than in most of history now, too much even – regional mispending is amongst the worst , but Spain crossed some lines very unpopular in Cataluña ( language etc.).
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The Spanish government has been making concessions to its regions for about 40 years now, most especially to Catalonia and Basque country. Both have far more autonomy nowadays than any federal Land of Germany -and way, way more civil servants-. Nationalists always kept asking for more. The Spanish Constitution is now just a joke, and leftists and regional nationalists are determined to wreak as much havoc as they can, which is a lot. Just wait and see
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Y los Andaluzes tambien. Por lo menos son mas tranquilo, pero la política va en el mismo sentido, mucho PC, y de experiencia atroz en su gestion. Los Franceses sembran caos… bueno soy guiri y ya sabes como pensamos del método de estado Frances…tambien hay de Francia quienes tienen harto. Voy poner unos enlaces, en la sub-cultura de web existe bastante de critica tambien. Problema es que del PP se han dejado corromper demasiado. Asco.
http://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Anne-Hidalgo_0_645336415.html
Search ” hidalgo http://ripostelaique.com/ ”
They hate her I think.
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https://www.gurusblog.com/archives/la-automutilazacion-del-parlament/07/09/2017/
At 0% though…. whatever
https://www.gurusblog.com/archives/llega-el-temido-0-a-los-depositos-a-plazo-fijo/31/08/2017/
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Not surprisingly, you have been a victim of the pervading propaganda. Similarly to the Cuban regime, the Catalan government has been spreading such fake data for decades, and it seems to work.
– The industrialization of Catalonia is the result of a long-standing policy of state subsidies and protectionist tariffs. Most Catalan enterprises are not able to export even a chewing gum. They live out of the Spanish market, thanks to a virtual monopoly of key distribution sectors
– As an indication of the true financial state of the region, Catalonia’s bonds are pure junk, and only the support of the Spanish government has prevented the region from going bankrupt
– Catalonia has been a part of Spain since the 15th century –i.e. since Spain’s foundation as the result of the marriage of Ferdinand of Castille and Isabelle of Aragon, and has always been perfectly bilingual. Catalonian nationalism dates back to the times when some crackpots started to claim some races are superior to others, and it still feeds from such sources. It is a supremacist ideology
– It is also imperialist. The region of Valencia staunchly opposes being assimilated to Catalonia, their language having evolved differently from Latin. Andorra is a joke, and the Balearic Islands are silently going through the same process, i.e. a minority of supremacists gaining power thanks to the indifference of the central government, that couldn’t care less about the Spanish language and culture. While more than 50 percent of the residents in Catalonia have Spanish as their mother tongue, no single kid is allowed to speak one word of Spanish from kindergarten to University, let alone learn the Spanish language and history. Children are even being punished for speaking Spanish at school
– Inmersion in the catalan language is only a part of a sustained hate policy aimed at abolishing any trace of the Spanish language and culture. I personally lived for 13 years in Barcelona, until I decided enough was enough and left. A result of that hate policy were the recent attacks in Barcelona. Exotic immigration has been strongly favored for decades to avoid e.g. Latin American immigrants, who speak the hated Spanish language. Immersion has been implemented undemocratically, against three successive decisions by the regional High Court, that have been blatantly ignored
– A large part of the support to independence has been gained by inflating the Catalan Administration with thousands of faithful –i.e. well-fed– civil servants, a total control of the mainstream media and an indoctrination at schools against anything Spanish
Catalonia is against everytingh you stand for, Mish: it is just state interventionism and totalitarianism. It’s a pity that you have been prey to the Catalanist propaganda (finance by the whole of Spanish tax-payers). Of course it’s not your fault, but the passivity of the Spanish central government
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I am convinced there is French/EU quiet backing to Cataluñas direction.
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If it were French, it would be consistent with history.
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If you look at the infrastructure purchases and so on, the political direction of Cataluña as well which is very “French”, if you imagine the financial and political opportunity that would be available, it all goes to France. I say EU because EU is in great part France, it will be the soft negotiator, but behind the scenes of all that is going on, you can be sure there is some quite viscious attitude around. Cataluña knows how to present itself as victim, but after Spain arrests the Catalan authorities, all effort will be made to discredit Spain… Spain will be in a very awkward position given how society is now divided politically.
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What are some of the speculative opportunities? You mentioned their junk bonds. They could be shorted. Any thing else interesting? I was wondering about banks headquartered in or out of Catalonia, but have not thought it through.
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And, yet if it went well for Cataluña; it might well be positive for their bonds!
The thought would be, if Cataluña’s finances improve, then the bonds could be more secure. If more secure, the interest on the new bonds could become lower than the old bonds some time. Making the old bonds, with higher interest rate than the new bonds, more valuable.
The last two sentences are a clear explanation of the theory tha dropping interest rates make existing bonds (of higher fixed interest rate) more valuable.
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The right to self deterimination of a people is enshrined in international law, in democratic ideals, and in the UN Chaarter. It is something completely theoretical, however. In practice people are never given the right to self-determination. Look at Crimea. Look at the Kurdish people. There are hundreds of cases, thousands even if we drill down to smaller ethnic groups and native peoples across the globe. How about South Carolina in 1860. Political units are generally the outcome of a clash between various forces, military force not being seldom. It’s a matter of wielding power and force, not a matter of rights.
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Nothing to do with this. Self-determination applies to colonial territories. Independence should follow the established rules, enshrined in the Constitution. A referendum of the whole Spanish voters to grant independence to Cataluña would be OK. Anything else would be undemocratic.
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There are two problems with the impending referendum. The first is the the populace is evenly split although those in Valencia tend to be against being included in Catalonia’s “independence”. Thus while so many of us may cheer on the vote and possible independence we tend to remain ignorant of its possible negative effects. The second point, which has been overlooked, is whether the vote will be binding or not. There is an excellent article on the blog site, “Nada es Gratis”, that discusses the current issue. The articles cover numerous ideas on numerous subjects, by the way, and are well worth reading for themselves. Mainstream media, even in Europe, has problems of veracity, so perhaps one might expand one’s sources of information.
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“As an independent country, Catalonia would have to apply for membership to the EU and to the Eurozone.”
Yeah they’ll be rushing up to Brussels to make sure the don’t miss out on their migrant quota.
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Hey Mish, notwithstanding your support, it shouldn’t mix with changing history or facts:
1. “History – Dating back to 1150 and 1707 Catalonia was not part of Spain”.
Well, Catalonia has bever, ever existed as an independent territory. A few centuries back, some 800-1000 yeras ago, it was part of the Crown of Aragon, which included the current Aragon, the current Catalonia, the current Valencia and the Ballearic Islands.
Before that, it was a territory with no clear boundaries vasall to Charlemagne.
2. “Secession would cost Spain approximately 20% of tax revenue”
Well, over 80% of the Catalan regional government revenues are collected by the central government that, afterwards, pass them on to the regional government. Your belief that people will change whom they pay taxes goes beyond me
Just two examples
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Mish,
Would you support a Chechen independence vote?
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If that’s what a majority of its citizens want
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Some updating (in Spanish)
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/07/catalunya/1504770601_734445.html
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Dear Mish,
Whe I first run into your site back in 2009 I really enjoyed your economic analysis. For the last couple of years it seems you are more interested in politcal issues though I think you lack basic knowledge speacilly regarding European affairs.
I am a hard anarcho-capitalist (I am not into labels but it is a brief intro) so I am biased to sympathized with anything that means more freedom. The Catalonian independence is not. I don’t think it will happen but if it does it will restrict its citizens rights. The pro-independent parties are collectivists with no respect for property rights. Yestarday Referedum’s Law approval proccess can be compared with Hitler or Maduro’s conception of democracy. If I have time this weekend I am going to write post about it. Spainish government has the same flaws that all western countries but an independent Catalonia would be closer to Cuba or Venezuela than to Switzerland.
Take care,
The Spaniard
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Secession from the southern states of the United States led to the most bloody civil war in history. The Washington government recently sentenced the Texas issue in a document signed by Jon Carson:
“An official White House response to a popular petition signed by 125,746 people warns that the U. S. Constitution establishes a’ permanent’,’ indestructible’ and’ perpetual’ union. Seven other similar requests relating to as many southern states have received identical responses from the U. S. Federal Government.
Catalonia has the support of the US and Israel (the Mossad has helped the Catalan government to create intelligence services) and the majority of the US and Israeli press has been in favour of this secession: the WSJ, NYT, WP; Haaretz, etc.
It is about fragmenting national states; it is the strategy of all empires.
Catalonia has never been a political nation, ever. First it was part of the kingdom of Aragon, and once the union of that kingdom with the kingdom of Castile in 1492, it became part of the kingdom of Spain. Never before has Catalonia been sovereign, as Scotland was.
Catalonia’s wealth and productivity is a myth, since it has the same GDP as Madrid despite the fact that Catalonia has a million more inhabitants.
What lies behind is none other than the interests of a political and kleptocratic class such as the Catalan one, which wants to sell products in the rest of Spain and keep the taxes it collects on the sale of those products (VAT), as is already the case with the Basque Country, which also does not contribute to the expenses of the Spanish State.
Greetings:
Psdt/ That banner that says it is not from Catalonia, it belongs to the kingdom of Aragon, which in turn comes from a donation of the Pope in the Middle Ages; the Catalan nationalists appropriated this banner at the end of the 19th century, and for this purpose they invented that the county of Barcelona had this coat of arms, which was totally false, as on the other hand is the whole story of a supposed independent Catalonia that never existed, totally invented.
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Madrid doesn’t have beaches.
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Help us, Francisco Franco … you are our only hope.
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you sure?:
https://www.google.es/search?q=youtube+franco+barcelona
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Reblogged this on The Most Revolutionary Act and commented:
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Catalan has their own language and culture and was briefly independent during the Spanish Civil War. Spain’s central government opposes the referendum – but has no way of stopping it short of declaring war on Catalan.
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It is easy to completely misunderstand the issue from the distance. Catalonia was never an state. More than 50% of the poulation in Catalonia has spanish as mother tongue. Simplifying, the modern Spain was formed 500 years ago with the marriage of the queen of Castilla and the king of Aragon. The kingdom of Aragon was formed centuries before by the marriage of Aragon kings (spanish speakers) and Barcelona count (catalan speakers). In Catalonia more than the half of people are spanish speakers and are against the independece. The Spanish constitution voted by all spain in the 70’s says that the soveregnity of Spain relies on the whole spanish citizens, not just a region. Indepententist are mostly razists. They are nationalists. They are not patriots. Nationalismus bases itlself in hate. For the nazis it was the jews, here is the rest of Spain. The spanish election system has given too much power to nationalits. This is a problem the politics have created, as there was not any problem with the street people. It is incredible that in Spain there are regions where you can bring your kids to learn in the school in their modern tongue, the official state language.
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Dear Mish,
I follow your web, and I like your critic spirit. Please consider some ideas:
– The sovereignty of Spain relies in the whole Spanish citizens, not in regions. The local goverment is trying to make a coup.
– More than 50% of the Catalonian residents are mother tongue Spanish citizens.
– Politics are creating a problem that did not exist in the population, where catalan and spanish speakers are mixed.
– More than half o the popular vote is against independence.
– The Spanish electoral system has given uneven key power to the nationalists.
– Catalan nationalists government has for 30 years in the media and in the schools taught hate to the rest of Spain. This is not patriotism, naitonalismus needs an enemy, as the nazis targeted the jews.
– So although Spanish and Catalan language is co-official in Catalonia, you cannot choose the the language for your kids to study. Spanish is taught 3 o 4 hours per week as is it was a foreign language. Just incredible, in your own country!
– Catalonia was one of the industrial drivers of Spain, thanks to nationalisms has been loosing ground. Thanks to nationalisms the people of the rest of Spain do not want to come here, at least not the best or the ones that can choose.
– Catalonia main economic customer is the rest of Spain.
– I hope this country, Spain, one of the oldest in the world, does not destroy itself.
Thanks.
Javier, from Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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Thanks Javier
Do you have an opinion as to how this will play out?
Will the referendum be held?
The outcome?
If independence vote – what then?
Thanks
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Mish
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Hello Mish,
Thanks for the interest.
The 2008 economic crisis tumbled many governments in Europe. Then the regional conservative nationalist party, played very well the people angriness, telling the people that Spain was stealing us money. By the way they did that also to cover the corruption cases (no different than in the rest of Spain). They made grow the independetism from 20% to 50%. In Spain there are money transfers from the richer regions Madrid, Catalonia & Balear islands to the poorer regions. Now that we are growing, this angriness is fading. Anyhow, now this negotiation with the central government that started asking for money (when Spain did not have it) and resulted in the “independence process” after some years is exhausting itself, and must come to a climax.
The central Spanish government, ruled in minory, by the conservative party, has played a low profile in this issue.
They have brought the issue to the tribunals, that have declared the October 1st referendum illegal. So the politics that are signing and preparing the referendum will face inhabitation to be reelected and fines. The second party PSOE, is supporting the government but not very firmly, as they would be happy to get nationalist votes to support them to win the power.
In 2014 there was already an illegal referendum. Obviously, only the people in favor of independence went to vote. This time the central government cannot allow it to be repeated. The regional government has approved a law to declare independence if the result of the referendum is positive. The tribunals have already declared it illegal.
The nationalists know they cannot achieve independence through this referendum, that is not legal and will not have any minimum warranty (census, organization, time for the parties to make campaign, etc.). They are looking for a photo to play victimism, internally and internationally. If there was some violence scene they would be happy.
In the middle run, after October 1st, with all the national parties, there can be a negotiation to revise the financial system to probably favor more the richest regions or Catalonia. And in parallel some commission to study an eventual constitution reform that would make some concession to the nationalists: on the language side, some kind of further “nation” recognition… Such a reform would need to pass a referendum of the whole Spanish citizens.
In the long run I do not see any reversal of the situation. Spain is pretty decentralized, and I do not see any the regional government giving back any power. So if Spain continues to make slowly, but allays in the same direction, concessions, in the very long run it will be independent.
I do not see independence in the short nor medium term. There might be some short term instability, but not even the markets nor the people nor the companies believe it. Anyhow it is sad to see how irresponsible politicians are, and the harm they are doing, e.g. to the economy through this instability, and by dividing their population.
Best regards,
Javier López, Barcelona
P.D.: a comment on: “History – Dating back to 1150 and 1707 Catalonia was not part of Spain. Numerous kings tried with no success to end the Catalan language. Those attempts ended in 1931. The Telegraph has a nice historical perspective on Why Catalonia wants independence from Spain.”. This is not correct. Nationalist rewrite history. Simplifying: Modern Spain was “born” in the XV century by marriage of the castillian Queen and the “Aragon Crown” king. The Aragon king (spanish language) and the count of Barcelona (catalan language) united also by marriage before in the XII century. Catalonia has never been an state. In the middle ages it was a mediterrean kingdom power, but already united with spanish speakers. Sadly for our nationalists it was self called “Corona de Aragon” (Aragon is the neighbor region to Catalonia). Also vasquen land in the north of Spain was never an state. Nationalism is born as a romantic idea in the end of the XIX century, tied to the language and the land. Naturally over time the tendency of the common language is to grow. Never has the Catalan language has been as repressed as nowadays the Spanish is in Catalonia. This is an offense to personal freedom giving more importance to the language than to the people.
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Good review Javier. Once upon a time Catalonians were down to earth busimessmen. For the last 20 years their institutions repress Spanish (or Castilian as it is better called now is Spain because of political correctness to not offend the other “national” languages). By the way thanks to Spanish they can communicate with about 600 million people around the globe as nobody but Catalonians speak their beautiful lenguage.
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Separatist movement is unfair. They are spreading an image of repression that is absolutely false. They have all their rights, language and autonomy granted by constitution. Spain does not allow a secession as Germany and France also disallow by constitution. The separatist parties with 49% of votes are feeding a powerful conflict.
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If the Spanish government was wise they would have allowed this referendum to go ahead and invested heaviliy in arguments against independence. The unwise tactic to crush the referendum is probably going to bring about independence, be it through strife or peaceful processes.
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