The news on Hurricane Irma is grim and worsening. The record-breaking Hurricane is described as “apocalyptic”. Here is a synopsis of Irma’s destruction: island by island.
Antigua and Barbuda
Barbuda, the first island to feel the force of Hurricane Irma was devastated by its high winds, with Gaston Browne, prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, saying 90% of buildings had been destroyed and 60% of the population of around 1,400 people left homeless.
Anguilla
One person died in the British overseas territory, said Ronald Jackson, executive director of the Caribbean disaster and emergency management agency, who added that “police stations, hospitals, school facilities, three or four emergency shelters, a home for the infirm and the aged, as well as the fire station”, along with many homes, had been damaged or destroyed.
St Martin and St Barts
The French part of the island (the southern side, St Maarten, is administered by the Netherlands) was “95% destroyed”, according to Daniel Gibb, a local official, who called it “an enormous catastrophe”.
Puerto Rico
The most recent island to be hit was Puerto Rico, where lashing winds and rains have left most of the population without power and tens of thousands without water. Images from the island showed flash flooding, and hospitals were forced to rely on generators.
St Kitts & Nevis
Prime minister Timothy Harris said St Kitts was “spared the full brunt” of Irma, but warned of “significant damage” to property and infrastructure, as well as power failures. The airport is due to reopen on Thursday.
More Hurricanes Coming Up
Irma is one of three hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, the first time since 2010 that three active hurricanes have been in the Atlantic, according to CNN Weather.
Tracking Irma
Spaghetti Models
A direct hit on Miami seems likely. Evacuation notices for Florida are readied and two more hurricanes brew in the Atlantic.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I caught a quick news clip about much higher wind speeds at higher levels, life could be interesting for those tall waterfront condo towers from Miami to Broward. We’ll see how well the high speed ratings of those windows bears up.
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Ever hear of side walk bolts? Me either. I would call them tress head screws from the looks of them. They are used to attach plywood to windows and doors. They are machine screw threads, so the anchors must be built right into the frames on new/remodel construction. Anyway, the stores seem to be pretty much out of them. Guess 12 years of no major storms have relegated the shelf space to other usefull things that nobody cares about this week. Good luck with that.
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An alternative attachment screw is a TAPCON. drill a hole in the concrete block and the screw will self thread itself . I am here in florida west of ocala have been through about a half dozen hurricanes here and elsewhere. Will be riding this one out. MY worries are that the spaghetti models are incorrect and IRMA
travels up west of the peninsular . No bottled water here and some gas shortages. The I75 corridor is congested. florida has a population of around 20 million. It will be hard for this amount of people to leave .
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I have a few friends in there and they are both very close to the shore. One in Ft Lauterdale, the other in Jupiter. The one in Jupiter already moved his classic cars to a safer place. He’been there long enough to know enough not to stay, so he is coming to Michigan to visit his kids. The other has never been through any hurricane and he’s sitting right where you don’t want to be… 2 blocks from the beach in a second floor condo. I hope he just ends up being sorry he stayed cuz that is the best senario in a situation like this. By the way, is Don Garlits still living in Ocala? Last time I saw him je was cutting rhe grass at his museum in June of 1995.
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Start filling bottles from the tap. Fill the tub, fill some big pots. Local water makes crappy coffee, but it is drinkable.
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Climate scientists have said that the frequency of these monster hurricanes will keep increasing. These places will begin to have 100-year floods every few years. If they are lucky, they will not have it every year.
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Don’t worry … we’re in the middle of a small warming period in a larger ice age, so there will come a time when we will wish we had AGW.
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It would be great if it were so neat. We will screw ourselves with AGW many many centuries before the next ice age starts.
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It should be that simple. The sun is more likely to screw us than we are to screw ourselves. Assuming a planet-killing asteroid doesn’t take us out first.
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The sun screwing us is out hundreds of millions of years in the future. Planet-killing asteroids have been tracked and there is none out there that can threaten the earth in the next several hundred years. We will screw ourselves with AGW long before that.
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Of course, in reality, ‘We” won’t screw ourselves at all…… Some dude in Florida will croak due to a hurricane. Or old age. Or something. Ditto for some Bedouin dying from heatstroke in the Sahara. And some Eskimo freezing to death. People have found novel, and not so, ways to croak since before they were people. Yet “we” manage to still be here.
Hobgoblins are imaginary, remember? The ones claiming they are not, only do so to facilitate them screwing us….
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“It would be great if it were so neat. We will screw ourselves with AGW many many centuries before the next ice age starts.”
That is simply leftist wishful thinking.
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The real left i.e. Soviet Union and its satellites had the same contempt for the environment that the right-wingers do. So there.
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I don’t know if we’ll screw ourselves, but you have to be a complete idiot to not recognize the earth is warming. You can argue data is faked, but that doesn’t explain melting glaciers and thawing permafrost.
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“The sun screwing us is out hundreds of millions of years in the future. Planet-killing asteroids have been tracked and there is none out there that can threaten the earth in the next several hundred years. We will screw ourselves with AGW long before that.”
Nothing more than dogmatic fantasy. Yeah, in a few billion years the Sun will expand to swallow the earth, but the Sun screws with us all the time, which is why we have ice ages and warming periods (the last of which was considerably warmer).
What annoys me about you climate-change alarmists is the religious fervor with which you spout off your certainty that it is AGW, when even the most convinced but real scientists admit they can’t truly separate the signal (AGW) from the noise (nature) and that what they are prescribing is little more than precautionary. You are spouting junk science that benefits a global political elite at the enslavement of the rest of us. If you aren’t one of the elite, maybe you should re-examine the facts and re-consider your opinions.
As for detecting all the earth killer sized asteroids, dream on; NASA et al are constantly being surprised by rather large near misses.
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@Mike Bravo,
AGW is physics, not guesses. Carbon dioxide works just like humidity in the air (H2O molecules). CO2 and H2O both can absorb more infrared radiation (heat) than can the normal gases: Nitrogen, O2, Argon. The nice thing with humidity is that water has a dew point and will liquefy below certain temperatures. We don’t get that luxury with CO2. So as the concentration goes up, the planet has to warm. And the concentration is going up. No “real scientist” would ever consider disputing this. It is all easily proven and has been done many times over.
The only thing you can question is long term effects.
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@Jon Sellers
“AGW is physics, not guesses.”
Nice try, but physics involves a lot of estimates, which is the polite way of saying “gueses at the uncertain or unknown.”
I’m glad you mention water vapor, because that is the bigger greenhouse emission. It’s also the one harder to tax, because water is good, right, so it is rarely discussed in these debates.
As for CO2, physics can only begin to estimate how much of it the environment will or will not handle it, e.g. plants will take some, water will take some, etc. But it is easily quantifiable in output and easy to brand as a bad thing since too much of it will kill us, so it is easy to tax without serious objections from the MOS.
The concentration of CO2 is still relatively low compared to prior periods in Earth’s history, and the whole system is somewhat adaptive, so it is rather disingenuous for the climate alarmists to run around talking about us being at or beyond a point of no return if the temperature were to rise another three degrees. As I asked elsewhere, what is the right temperature for the Earth?
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The Arctic sea ice has probably already turned for the year. Greenland broke its all time low in July with a -33C on the 3rd or 4th of July which should be one of its hotter days. Norway had a year without summer as only 6 stations managed 30C in the entire summer, and it rained 70 out of 72 days and destroyed crops there. Also the USA just went through the longest time without a CAT 3 or higher landfall in history. Please tell me 1 thing that the snake oil climate idiots have gotten right in 3 decades.
What you call global warming is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in warm phase. It is starting to go into cool phase. Also the North Atlantic has dropped 1.5C down to 700meters in the last 6 years. This will refreeze the entire Eastern Arctic soon. At the same time the Antarctic ice will start to shrink in extent. Then they will ignore the Arctic like the did the Antarctic when it was breaking all time highs in extent a couple of years back.
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You can’t look at single weather events as proof for or against global warming. You have to look at long term temperature trends and right now all the trends point towards a warming planet.
The most obvious visible proof of global warming is shrinking glaciers. With few exceptions, the worlds glaciers are shrinking. There’s a plethora of photographic evidence to back this up.
The high antarctic sea extent was caused by global warming. There’s was a lot of fresh water runoff from Antarctica due to melting. Fresh water floats on top of salt water and has a higher freezing temperature. There was a layer of frozen fresh water on top of the salty ocean water.
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Neither the frequency of storms nor the warming over the last 250 years correlate well with the rise in greenhouse gasses. AGW is just like the crap about the Russians hacking the DNC, just because the MSM report it, it does not make it true.
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Earth is warming. So what? What is the correct temperature for the Earth?
Has there ever been a time where Earth was warmer in recent history (call that ten millennia or so), and what did that do to life?
Mars is getting warmer too … is that caused by our robot explorers, or could it possibly be the Sun?
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This will the fourth Cat5 hurricane to hit the USA, and none of the other three foretold the gloom and doom nonsense you are peddling. Actually, they were followed by periods of relative calm in storm intensity.
Weather patterns and temperatures have oscillated both up and down for many many millennia, and will continue to do so regardless of your carbon taxes and stupid regulations.
Man up. Just admit you and Al Gore want perpetual tax increases to fund a socialist nightmare. Stop trying to use mother nature as a cover story.
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Will probably be a 3-4 on landfall.
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“Climate scientists have said that the frequency of these monster hurricanes will keep increasing. These places will begin to have 100-year floods every few years. If they are lucky, they will not have it every year.”
That turned out not to be true. 12 NEW record years with no major hurricane hitting the U.S.
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What part of “global” don’t you understand? Check out the super typhoon of 2013, the huge typhoons that devastated Philippines in 2012 and 2010, the supercyclone that hit Australia in 2006 and on and on. All of them made the list of the most powerful storms ever recorded.
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“What part of “global” don’t you understand?
I understand global very well. The globe isn’t doing what climate scientists said it was supposed to do. Remember, in 2005, we were being told that we would have more and stronger hurricanes. The opposite happened. 12 record years without a major hurricane hitting the U.S. The number of tornadoes dropped off as well. Inconvenient for global warming alarmists.
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Irma will be the 4th Cat5 hurricane to hit the USA… none of the other three foretold global warming (they “foretold” reduced activity in subsequent years, although both outcomes were random).
Weather activity and temperatures have oscillated both up and down for thousands of years, and will continue to do so regardless of what taxes the socialists impose on the world
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The climate alarmists are liars. Frequency of hurricanes is lower, not higher. And the recent floods have nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with crappy infrastructure and local overpopulation.
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They’ll tell you that Gaia is storing the heat deep in the oceans to later unleash it against us in Superstorms the likes of which we have never seen. Algore tells us that the seas are rising over Miami, which is interesting because I live a bit up the beach and the waters seem to be at roughly the same level as they were in the seventies: maybe, just maybe, Miami is sinking under the weight of all that building.
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To the climate change alarmists, climate changes. Live with it.
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Click on the above for the large version of it.
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CO2 increases from left to right:
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Click on the above for the large version of it.
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From:
Future economic damage from tropical cyclones: sensitivities to societal and climate changes
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1860/2717
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I have so-called hurricane windows, but I don’t think they’re rated for Cat 4 or 5 … I think they advertised a force equivalent to a 2×4 hitting at 50fps, which sounds really impressive but works out to be 34mph.
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Florida’s hurricane window specs call for an 8 pound 2×4 @ 80 fps.
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OK, make that 55mph
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The fire fighters complain about them though. Makes it almost impossible to breach the glass to save someone during a fire, which is a much more likely hazard. According to Florida code, you must install them. I could think of a lot better systems, but that’s government for you.
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Still wish I had sprung for storm shutters, but the weakest point is my storm door, so all that is water under the bridge (and hopefully not the door).
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The winds may be well in excess of 100 mph, but a 2×4 won’t be traveling that fast.
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No, but a coconut might.
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By coincidence I left two weeks ago, I feel bad though that I didn’t get a chance to say goodbye to the screen around my pool and my roof.
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If the eye of the storm does not go inland but stays just off of the coast and the storm parallels the FL coast it might be the costliest storm in US history. It could devastate 100+ miles of coastline.
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Without forcasting credentials, I’d nevertheless guess that hittting Cuby will bring Irma further onto the island and cause the hurricane to go up the west coast of the Florida Penninsula, or possibly into the Gulf where it could strenghthen more. I live in metro Atlanta and the eye over my home (reduced in intensity by then, of course.)
_aleph_
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Is that big lake north of Atlanta still running low?
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It’s going to play hell with the cricket matches
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Hopefully, Irma has drained a significant amount of energy from the Atlantic ocean…
Follow-up storms should have lower threat levels accompanying them…
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I would think that the ocean has enough energy to power hundreds of potential storms. One storm isn’t going to drain any of that energy at all.
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Actually they pull cold water up. If the one behind takes the same track it will weaken. Also the oceans hold 100000X the heat of the atmosphere so trying to heat oceans with increased air temperature is like heating an Olympic sized swimming pool with a blow dryer.
If you can’t find a mechanism to heat the oceans then there is no global warming to speak of.
The heating effects of CO2 are logarithmic and the first
20ppm does 80%
40ppm does 90%
80ppm does 95%
160ppm does 97.5% Bare minimum to support life on this planet.
320 does 98.75%
400 where we are does 99% of all the heat trapping (wrong word) so how much more heat are we looking at with 800ppm wait for it .3C. NASA wrote a paper on this in the 1970s.
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Hurricanes have historically brought colder deep waters to the surface. Right now, the tropical atlantic SST is running about 2C warmer than the 30 year average for this time of year, so I would guess there is likely plenty of warm water.
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a useful site for info is sailinganarchy.com
it’s for professional sailors and industry insiders – plenty of on the spot info
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When we hear and read about how some of the previous civilizations were wiped out by environmental catastrophes, we wonder how stupid they would have to have been to have missed such a big thing.
Well, we don’t have to wonder any more!
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Are you suggesting Anthropogenic Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions?
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I am talking about Easter Island type eco-catastrophes and other cases of deforestation and desertification disasters through human history.
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I am talking about Easter Island type eco-catastrophes and other deforestation and desertification disasters through human history.
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Irma has just entered a zone of islands and shallower water. Sustained wind speeds have dropped from 185 to 175 mph and will likely drop more as the (predicted) three days go by before it hits Miami.
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Don’t worry. The recent solar eclipse highlighted the region which will be in deep trouble till the next SE. According to the old wise(?) man of history, SE impact starts ahead of the event (election cough) and will grip that region for a while. Man – we are in deep trouble and it shows every day.
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That big spot with the number 3 on Mish’s first map is my house. The county (Brevard) just ordered the evacuation of the barrier islands. Had a lot of good times on Cocoa Beach. Hopefully you out of state taxpayers will rebuild it for us. If nobody else says it, I will: thanks!
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My condo is on the beach. I won’t hold my breath waiting for the City, County, State, or Feds to help repair and replace anything, and I’ll be happy to get anything out of the insurer, assuming it doesn’t fold.
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When a population breeds to confluence in its Petri dish some catastrophe causes a 95% population collapse. Houston and Miami were over due.
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Hey everyone.
First, I want to give my condolences to any who have been adversely affected by Hurricanes this year. Second, I hope that people stay safe as the current hurricanes continue on their paths.
Third, I want to add my two cents to the climate discussion. This is a very complex issue (as are most things that people often argue about). I am going to ignore the typical arguments about causes: CO2, methane, sun spots, natural cycles, ice ages, etc. I am just going to talk about effects in our lifetimes.
I try to deal with facts and trends, though even this is difficult as there are just so many variables. So, to keep things simple, I’m not going to talk about the entire planet, just the oceans.
For the last 150 years both ocean temperatures and ocean levels have been rising. This has been happening, in spite of the fact that ocean floors are slowly and continuously sinking (which should lower ocean levels). The effects are seen all over the world, especially in low lying areas.
In North America, the east coast is more affected than the west coast, because in addition to water levels rising, most of the east coast is subsiding, while much of the west coast is rising (the underlying plates are always moving).
“IF” the trends continue, and ocean temperatures and levels continue to rise, then many of the coastal areas of the eastern US are going to be in trouble, especially Florida. In addition, when hurricanes do happen, the warmer ocean waters will make them worse, and the higher ocean levels will produce greater storm surges. If these trends continue, then there will be more frequent disasters, like Harvey, that cost over a hundred billion dollars in damages, and even more loss of life.
Therefore, the US needs to take a closer look at a lot of things, such as:
Should you keep allowing more development in such low lying coastal regions, since the number of flood days per year is increasing dramatically.
Should you improve building codes to design buildings and infrastructure to withstand stronger storms.
Should you invest (like the Netherlands) in sea walls, gates, and systems to prevent 1 in 8000 year floods and other events, rather than 1 in a hundred.
and so on…
If these trends continue, and it is determined, beyond any doubt, that they are natural trends that can’t be stopped by man, then you should focus all your attention on the methods to prevent and reduce damage, as mentioned above.
If these trends continue, and it is determined that man’s activities are contributing to the problem, then you also need to try to reduce man’s contributions.
From what I see, the US isn’t doing much of anything, except denying a problem exists, and hoping it will go away. Individual states are being a little bit more proactive, but often it is related to planning for a 1 in 100 year event; yet every year it seems they are getting hit with a 1 in 300, 500, or 800 year event.
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“From what I see, the US isn’t doing much of anything, except denying a problem exists, and hoping it will go away.”
From what i see, leftists are trying socialize the climate, the way they are trying to socialize everything else. Climate alarmism isn’t about climate, it is about socialism.
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I wasn’t talking climate. I only mentioned the problem of rising sea levels and water temp and the resulting damage to the US coastal regions. I simply look at facts and trends.
As I said, “IF” the trends continue, the US east coast is in trouble. Perhaps the trends will reverse.
You are entitled to ignore these trends. Good luck.
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Those that are convinced the seas are rising will never convince those that don’t. And vice versa. No use debating it, we will just have to wait and see who is right. Many years ago when I cycled to school, I went through a park that had permafrost for several months of winter, it no longer does that, in fact there is no hardly a frost in winter. I conclude from that, that the world is getting warmer. Why is the question and I am not even slightly convinced a cow farting in the paddock or driving my car to work times the world population is making a significant difference. Human produced pollution does affect local comfort however, and we should do all we can to stop or greatly reduce this. But not to the extent we go back to the stone age. This is what Governments should be focused on. those that create pollution should be paying to fix it. If it puts prices up then that is true cost recovery so tough luck.
In a similar vein with sea levels. there are no locks or causeways between seas and oceans and as far as I am aware, water finds its own level. If there were no external influences such as moon and wind and all the worlds water was flat calm, the water would all come to the same level. Of course this is not the case and there will always be events that are caused by nature and outside of our control. We can not do a King Canute and hold back the tide. If you don’t want wet feet, don’t live in a swamp.
there is positive proof by way of a permanent mark left in a rock in Tasmania Australia in 1841 that shows no significant rise in sea levels. Go to Tasmania and see for yourself.
http://www.morningmail.org/isle-of-the-dead
paste that in your browser
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Hey David. I have no intention of debating sea levels or water temperatures with anyone. I will let the scientists around the world do the measuring. I will simply rely on their measurements.
As I said, the world is complex, and there are always exceptions to general trends, for a variety of reasons. Like your Tasmania example.
All I’m saying, is that if you simply choose to ignore the trend of rising sea levels, and water temperatures, then you are going to be unprepared for the consequences.
It seems odd that this is a political issue or a conspiracy issue to so many. They think it’s all fake.
Similarly, I was watching the hurricane Irma coverage on TV today. They were interviewing people in Florida, who said they don’t believe the hurricane will be very bad, in spite of all the warnings. People were saying they were going to stay on their sailboats at the marina, or hold up in their beach house, which are in mandatory evacuation areas. Others were partying at beachfront outdoor pubs, and weren’t worried in the least.
I guess it’s just becoming more common for many people to ignore warnings and believe what they want. (As Ron said, it’s all leftist, socialist, propaganda). However, if the hurricane hits Florida hard, there will be some pretty devastating consequences for the people who ignored the warnings.
As you said, “No use debating it, we will just have to wait and see who is right.”
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Things To Do:
Buy clorine bleach to treat stored water.
Fill all your containers with tap water.
Fill your bath tubs.
Locate your natural/propane gas shut-offs and tape the appropriate wrench to the shut-off.
Locate your water shut-off and tape the appropriate wrench to its shut-off.
Do you have propane for your BBQ?
Do you have dry wood for a camp fire?
Do you have canned goods like Chilli?
Do not panic, rather help your neighbors.
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