After crashing through the Carribean and smacking Cuba, Hurricane Irma weakened a bit. But Irma has regained strength and is once again a Category 5 monster headed straight for Florida.
Bloomberg reports Irma Rakes Cuba as Category 5 Hurricane.
12:35 a.m.
A newly strengthened Irma is taking aim at south Florida with 160 mph (257 kph) winds after battering Cuba and leaving more than 20 dead across the Caribbean, as another hurricane follows close behind.
Irma regained Category 5 status late Friday. Thousands of people in the Caribbean fought desperately to find shelter or escape their storm-blasted islands, and more than 6 million people in Florida and Georgia were warned to leave their homes.
Many residents and tourists were left reeling after the storm ravaged some of the world’s most exclusive tropical playgrounds, known for their turquoise waters and lush green vegetation. Among them: St. Martin, St. Barts, St. Thomas, Barbuda and Anguilla.
Irma threatened to push its way northward from one end of Florida to the other beginning Sunday morning.
Best wishes to Floridians.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Moither Nature is a bitch.
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Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..
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Hurricanes gain energy from warm waters and lose energy over cool land. Irma is twice the diameter of Florida. The Gulf is warm 87 degrees. Florida land is warm 80 degrees. The Florida Atlantic coastal water is 85 degrees. Hurricane Irma may not lose intensity as it traverses Florida.
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the predicted track has steadily moved west over last 36 hours
thoughts ?
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1. models do not account for momentum of so large a storm.
2. less storm surge on the Atlantic coast.
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Prediction models are unpredictable. They cannot even tell you with accuracy if it will rain tomorrow. I predict it the eye will not even impact Florida. Mobile Ala and points west had better pay attention.
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What is your basis for that prediction? Is it just an extrapolation of the gradual move of the storm westward?
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No, I believe I should add my prediction to all the useless noise on when and where it will go. I was under mandatory evacuation yesterday. Now we will be lucky to see 50 mph gusts. Fear mongering.
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Could skirt right up the coast maintaining power. It is big enough to affect the whole peninsula no matter where or even if it lands in Florida. No idea exactly what it will do, obviously those over 50 mles from the eye will be spared the very worst of it…not to say it will be just a few light showers for them… and then there is the flooding also.
Where did Jon Sellers go in the end?
I think that even though the land is warm, the hurricane needs warm ocean to power it. Water retains heat far better than what will be cloud covered land.
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Latest nhc has it to Ft. Myers, Tampa , Tallahassee ?
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For visualisation ( not track) this site is original
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=23.09;-79.90;6&l=gust
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Hunkered down and boarded up. Anticipating maximum 90 mph winds over here on the east coast. Dodged a bullet.
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Hope so…not over till Irma sings.
Take care.
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2-3 days ago, NOAA was sure it was headed for the FL keys. Then it was definitely definitely headed straight for Mar-a-lago to punish Trump for defying the media. Then it was headed for Ft Lauderdale, and then up the coastline. Then it was back to targeting Miami. I-95 was clogged for two days solid with people fleeing from media sensationalism.
Today, NOAA is saying its headed for Ft Myers / Tampa. Or maybe Tallahassee.
NOAA has become so politicized that they sound like a Wall Street sell side analyst — constantly revising their earnings guesses and then proclaiming (after the fact) that the 40th earnings revision was oh-so-accurate.
The Wall Street guys at least admit they are trying to sell a product.
NOAA, like all government employees, has less accountability than a Goldman Sachs analyst.
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Spot on. I have been tracking long this storm from the first warning in August. A lot of people went to SW Florida to escape and now are potentially in the direct path (maybe – they haven’t been able to predict so far).
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WTF! land slows them down and inhibits it from regenerating moisture (energy). land always weakens hurricanes.
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Yes, hurricanes cannot gain strength on land. But idiots look at the word “weakening” and interpret it as “no big deal”. But this is what “weakening” means – all the energy the hurricane acquired over the ocean (easily the equivalent of a million Hiroshima type atomic bombs for this one) will be unleashed on the land.
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I always cheer for Darwinism.
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Ratings agency Equifax upgraded Hurricane Irma to Cat 5 status, but did not report it until all of its execs were safely evacuated.
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I liked that one…
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It seems that US forecasting of the Hurricane Irma’s track is very poor :
https://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2017/09/us-forecast-fail-hurricane-irma/
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Weather forecasts have a tendency to over dramatize the impact of hurricanes. If Irma doesn’t live up to its billing, weather forecasting faces a credibility problem.
I’m rooting for a Category 3 by the time it reaches Florida.
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Category # is just one of the factors. Other things like size (this one is the size of Texas) and speed at which moves (not the wind speed, but the speed at which the eye travels) come into play.
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Hey Spirit; I’m sure everyone is hoping for the best, but they need to be preparing for the worst. There is a reason why weather forecasters give people the worst case scenarios; even though they know that worst case rarely happens, people need to prepare for the worst case in order to be safe.
Since the worst case only happens occasionally (maybe 5% of the time or less), people make statements like “If Irma doesn’t live up to its billing, weather forecasting faces a credibility problem.”
Many people, like you, believe that the weather forecasters “over dramatize” things. This kind of attitude is why people think that they can safely stay in evacuation zones. That is why the death count is always higher than it should be.
It would be irresponsible of weather forecasters to not tell you the worst case scenario.
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It would be better if the forecasters didn’t cry wolf most of the time — and then they would have more credibility when they need it.
Forecasters think the average person is dumb and needs to be scared into submission, somehow forgetting that forecasters themselves come from the same flawed population they look down upon.
Politicizing NOAA hasn’t made their models more accurate. Is Irma going up the east coast of FL, the west coast, headed straight for mar-a-lago, or is it going to fizzle out over cuba? — the flawed “experts” don’t know, and are too arrogant to admit they don’t know.
Is this a real storm that people should worry about, or is this some bureaucrats trying to ramp up their budget and justify the boss’s global warming taxes? Since there is very little science involved, there is no way to prove anything either way.
That is irresponsible.
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Many people, like you, believe that the weather forecasters “over dramatize” things. This kind of attitude is why people think that they can safely stay in evacuation zones. That is why the death count is always higher than it should be.
Maybe I”m not paying enough attention. I’ve been burned too many times. Case in point. The announced wind speeds are calculated from the sum of wind speed and ground velocity. I live in the New York area on land not at risk from flooding. The highest speed is always on the ocean side. The trajectory of hurricanes in my area don’t go deep inland. Long Island gets the worst.
That said. If I lived in Florida or anywhere on the Gulf Coast I would heed the forecasts. The whole area is a flood zone.
It’s a little off topic, What happened to the North Korean crises and the threat of nuclear holocaust? Where would the propoganda media do without a daily dose of crises to scare Americans into the arms of Big Brother?
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Agreed. I hope for the best for the people in FL and other area. From my viewpoint they are sensationalizing these storms and the models (from day 1) have been in error and not by a little.
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Politicizing of NOAA, combined with ever increasing sensationalism in media, is a recipe for problems.
There are real lives and real property at risk… and entities that were historically trusted to warn and protect the public have instead become vehicles to manipulate the public.
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you choose whether to consume the sensationalism or not
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Category 5 liberal/Chinese/media hoax about to inundate all coastal areas of Florida.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hurricane-irma-destruction-south-florida-america-response-disaster-what-happens-now-a7936876.html
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“Category 5 liberal/Chinese/media hoax about to inundate all coastal areas of Florida.”
Did you know that there has always been extreme weather? It doesn’t matter what the global climate is.
Hurricane Allen in 1980, before global warming alarmism, had sustained winds of 190 mph. It rained 45 straight days in California, not in 2017, in 1861.
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Extreme weather is certainly not new. What is new, is our ability to better model it and predict what might happen. I have been very impressed with the models (European, American, etc.) that are being used to predict what this hurricane will do. They have been pretty accurate so far, looking as far ahead as five days in advance. They aren’t perfect, they simply show the most likely paths, with a fair degree of confidence, so people can prepare better in case they are in one of those projected paths.
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Realistically, the whole region is in projected hurricane path, and so should be prepared accordingly. If preparation means running as a hurricane nears, so be it, but at some point it seems a bit silly when millions move out of the way as a forecaster swipes his pen one way, then another, across a map. Maybe that is the best people can do, I don’t know, personally if I lived there I would just make sure there was a good hurricane shelter nearby, or build one. Whatever.
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I’ll repost my 18th century model for you.
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It is not just the windspeeds. Hurricanes are getting larger in size because of the amount of water they accumulate. That is directly dependent on water temperature and that in turn is directly dependent on co2 levels in the atmosphere. Most of the damage caused by hurricanes is due to flooding rather than by damaging winds though the latter is sensationalized more in reports.
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Hi Mish,
I am in Naples. Riding out storm in concrete home
with steel shutters. About three miles in from Gulf.
We are 13′ above sea level and not in an evacuation
zone (yet) . Shelters are filling up quickly. We are
expecting the high winds tomorrow into Monday.
Should be fun.
Wayne S.
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@Wayne — are you seeing high winds or rain yet?
Trying to get hold of family in Naples, and haven’t been able to reach them. I am guessing they are busy with last minute storm prep (Irma was supposedly going up east coast), so they aren’t near their phones.
Best of luck and stay safe
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It is pretty calm right now. I am getting cramps listening to the weather talking heads. Now this part of Florida where they told people to run to is going to get hit hard. Right now they are talking about a 15′ storm surge. As of now we are not in a flood zone, but it is getting closer. Power is starting to go so it may be difficult to reach people soon. There have been tornado warnings in the past few minutes. There will be flooding, no one knows how severe or where.
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Not to question the all knowing, all powerful, and often wrong forecasters… but how do we know Irma won’t be pushed due west from cuba and into Mexico? The high pressure trough that was supposed to push Irma east (but didn’t) is still above northern gulf of mexico, which could easily hold / push Irma much further south than forecast.
Not saying people in FL shouldn’t prepare, just wondering if any weather forecasters are commenting, and if they can explain the basis for their prediction (it sure seems like they are just guessing most of the time)
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Where’s Rush Limbaugh? I am told he knows exactly where this is going! Forecasters, schmorecasters, models, schmodels. Who wants all that when there are all these all-knowing loudmouths of the right – experts in everything from astronomy through biology through climatology through pulmonology all the way to zoology.
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Never mind Rush Limbaugh, Jennifer Lawrence has weighed in on her theory that Irma was sent to punish Trump voters. Being famous makes one qualified to opine on everything.
And the scary thing is, she has about the same odds of forecasting Irma’s path as the social justice warriors working at NOAA. Hurricanes are just a white man’s social construct and they don’t respect minorities right to free sh!t.
There was a time, decades ago, when NOAA hired more scientists and fewer political activists. Since NOAA became so politicized, they are now playing on Rush Limbaugh’s court.
Also, Krik Cameron says God sent Irma to remind somebody of God’s greatness and to remind people to repent.
So now we have the opinions of two “great” Hollywood minds…
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“Not to question the all knowing, all powerful, and often wrong forecasters”
Weather forecast models are just that; models. They don’t pretend to be perfect, and are sometimes very inaccurate, because there are so many variables, and these systems are so complex.
Their primary goal is not to be perfect, but to forecast the possibilities, based on all data provided. Once they show what the possibilities are, then people can prepare accordingly.
It is vital that they show everyone what the “worst case scenarios” are, not because they will happen, but because they have a reasonable chance to happen (probably less than 5% of the time). If you don’t prepare for the worst, and then the worst happens, people can die.
Let’s hope that the “worst case forecasts” are wrong, as they usually are, and the storm is much, much less than worst case. However, if the “worst case forecasts” come true, as they occasionally do, then it would be irresponsible not to warn people.
I imagine that there are internet sites that can explain how the models work. You can also learn more at Mikes Weather Page, and Weather Underground.
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Explaining modification of outcomes due to variable change in highly volatile chaotic systems, to a guy who says he writes AI programs…F’n Priceless!
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Having worked (past tense, long ago) with some of the “old farts” that used to do NOAA hurricane forecasts, I wonder about the qualifications of the recent hires.
Bush II emphasized wiz-bang computer graphics over forecasting experience, as if better pictures would make up for fewer hurricane chaser flights.
Obama era hires have their strength in politics, not meteorology. They were put into NOAA to advance the global warming tax agenda, and to h#ck with the weather.
There is nothing wrong with computer graphics if you work at Pixar, and nothing wrong with political maneuvering if you are a lobbyist…. but when the question of the day pertains to weather and hurricanes, I have serious doubts about NOAA’s qualifications.
Today’s political NOAA is the same as your grandfather’s NOAA… its one more government agency where politics has superceded the stated purpose of whatever agency.
Models and forecasts always came with an asterisk next to them, back when the models were built and operated by meteorologists. But computer models operated by politicians pushing their agendas is particularly worrying.
Only two days ago, NOAA was equally certain that Irma was going to pass between Miami and Bahamas before continuing north.
Then the eye was going to go over Miami and the worst of it was targeting Trump’s Mar-a-lago estate — tell me a real scientist would make such a ridiculous “forecast” with such heavy political over-tones?
I don’t know what to make of the NOAA models, and as two commenters already said every model comes with an asterisk. But these models are being interpreted by political appointees with political agendas…. and that is before the governor and media personalities use it to sell TV time.
There is real property and real lives at risk here — this is not a game or an election to be manipulated.
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TYPO …
Today’s political NOAA is ***NOT*** the same as your grandfather’s NOAA…
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“computer models operated by politicians pushing their agendas is particularly worrying.”
“Then the eye was going to go over Miami and the worst of it was targeting Trump’s Mar-a-lago estate — tell me a real scientist would make such a ridiculous “forecast” with such heavy political over-tones?”
I guess everything is a conspiracy to you.
The many models (European, American, Canadian, etc.) show multiple paths (over 50 paths for the three models I mentioned). The American model updates more frequently than the European model, as it uses less data, and shows fewer paths. Therefore the American model provides faster updates, but slightly less accuracy than the European.
I guess that one of the many hundreds of paths that the American model has shown in the last 24 hours had it going straight over Mar a Lago, and your immediate assumption is that it’s because of politics.
“There is real property and real lives at risk here — this is not a game or an election to be manipulated.”
I agree. Try following your own advice.
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TV channels in the USA (all of them, even Fox) commented about the storm heading straight for mar-a-lago.
No scientist would make such a politicized statement, its media hype.
And while you discussed European and Canadian forecast models, you apparently didn’t read carefully. How do you manage to confuse “NOAA models” (which is what I wrote) with European and Canadian models (which was your misreading)?
The ***NOAA MODELS*** have been all over the place. West coast, east coast, back to west coast. Read that sentence carefully — NOAA models. not europe or canada. NOAA.
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“The ***NOAA MODELS*** have been all over the place. West coast, east coast, back to west coast. Read that sentence carefully — NOAA models. not europe or canada. NOAA.”
They are supposed to be all over the place. They show what the “possibilities” are. The American models update more frequently than the European, as the data changes frequently. That’s why they fly planes into the hurricane several times a day to gather data and update the models. People risk their lives flying into the hurricane, to help provide the data that can save other peoples lives. Then you say that this data is ignored for political reasons.
The fact that the American models agree so well with the European, Canadian, etc. show that they are indeed doing a good job. These models are getting better every year.
Hurricanes are incredibly complex systems. I’m quite amazed at how good all the models have been at forecasting Irma. Your claims show a complete lack of understanding of reality.
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I don’t care if the NOAA models agree with the canadian and european models. I am not trying to predict other model’s errors.
I only care when the models say the storm is headed up the east coast of FL, and instead it goes up the west coast. I care whether a forecast model correctly predicts what actually happens.
That is the difference between working in academia / government — where there is zero accountability for being WRONG… and working in the real world, where much smaller mistakes get people fired.
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And repost the modern model for you both too
Settled?
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LOL. Settled!
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There’s a little devil sitting on all your shoulders – whispering in your ear;
“Hey, remember last time? They said it was gonna’ be REALLY bad…but it wasn’t. The same thing will happen this time, too. Don’t worry about it – it will sputter out and be no big deal. Don’t go to all the trouble to evacuate. It’ll be alright…”
“Heeheeheeheehee”
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Hey Billy. You are right. Because the “worst case” rarely happens, people think it won’t happen this time either. But, every now and then, worst case does happen. Let’s hope this is another time when it doesn’t. If I was in Florida, I wouldn’t want to risk my loved ones lives, just because “It’s rarely as bad as they say”.
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Yep, some things are better to be wrong and embarrassed about. I was already out of FL, but if I were still there i would have left.
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I certainly hope that most people have left. And I hope that things turn out much better than “worst case”.
Oddly, the problem with the worst not happening, is that next time, people might not leave. It’s certainly a catch-22.
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@Billy… a problem that wasn’t discussed much less addressed after Katrina (and only got worse in the years since) is the declining quality of employee at NOAA doing forecasts.
A lot of boring, stodgy “old farts” who had a genuine interest in meteorology retired. They were replaced with increasingly political motivated persons. Everytime you see a social justice warrior at a college telling TV cameras that math is a white man’s construct … remember that kid will be a government employee a few years later.
Its scary how many global warming tax advocates were put into NOAA by the Obama team. Bush had a disturbing fascination with technology he probably ( 🙂 ) did not understand.
Being prepared for natural disasters (that have happened for thousands of years, and will continue to happen) is great. Having weather models that (hopefully) improve over time can give better warnings.
But NOAA is just one more government agency that has been politicized. And in a hurricane, its not a game for lobbyists to play. There are real lives and real property at risk
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The models ARE getting better every year, including the American models. The fact that they have done such a good job of predicting Irma for the last 5 days, and that they have been agreeing with each other, to a large degree, shows how good they are. Your constant conspiracy arguments are old and tired.
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You sound like a Wall Street analyst claiming accuracy based on your 40th earnings revision, and somehow ignoring the dozens are wrong calls before it.
The NOAA models have been all over the place. NOAA models (not your canadian or european whatever) were calling for the storm to hit Miami, later they had Irma going up the east coast of FL, now they are claiming west coast.
You may judge NOAA using revisionist history, but most of us still remember the wrong forecasts from only two days ago.
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The models change as the data changes. Five days ago, the models (all of them) said that there was a high degree of probability that Irma would strike the US, most likely the east coast of Florida. As Irma got closer, following the paths that the models predicted with uncanny accuracy, the newest data showed that Irma’s chances of hitting the west coast were increasing. Today, the latest data has Irma most likely hitting the west coast.
These are not certainties, just probabilities. That’s what the models are supposed to do. And these models keep getting better every year.
I hope that the models are wrong, and that Irma suddenly dissipates. Then you can crow about how useless NOAA is. That would be a small price to pay to save lives. However, the models haven’t been wrong. You simply misunderstand what it is that they do.
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Oh, so you are saying the models aren’t completely wrong, they are just forecasting what might have happened, probabilistically speaking, in some alternate reality? That’s very helpful.
Meanwhile, in this reality, NOAA’s models caused people to evacuate from the east coast of FL to seek shelter on the west coast… only to learn the storm is headed for the west coast and they would have been safe if they just stayed where they were.
No matter what excuses you make, the taxpayers who are paying for all these useless guesses need to know where the storm actually hits. That is the only relevant metric.
Knowing that a coin will turn up heads 50% of the time, probablistically, is useless information even if the coin toss model is correct.
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I have been following the models since the first Aug 29 warning and all of the plots. The models predictions are not even close! First it was going to devastate the Bahamas, then Miami, then Mar a Lago, Fort Lauderdale, then the whole state of Florida, east coast and west coast. Now, it is SW Florida, except now, it is Tampa St Pete. Come on, these are not accurate in the least bit. They still do not know where it will go – perhaps with confidence we can say where it might head within a few hours time, definitely not in days. I understand the goal is to prepare people, however we just had a bunch of people go from east Florida to west coast Florida and now are in the path.
I can say this, no one in the forecasting business has come out and said the models need to be re-evaluated. I do not want to see people get hurt or lose property, but the hype/drama/sensationalism is not helping.
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Hey Skeptic. I’m not sure what models you were following, but the ones I was following were very accurate in predicting the possible paths 24-48 hours in advance. As the models move 2-5 days out, the paths are typically all over the place. That’s what the models are supposed to do, show the possible paths.
A week ago, when looking 5 days ahead, some paths had Irma moving to the mid-Atlantic, while others had it moving west to the Gulf of Mexico. And some paths had it hitting the US. Those were the possibilities when you looked at all the spaghetti plots.
When looking 5 days ahead, at 30 possible paths, obviously, 29 of them are not going to happen. That doesn’t make the model wrong, or useless.
The models (all of them) are obviously better in the short term. All the models had a very high probability of Irma going directly over Barbuda and Anguilla, 48 hours in advance. And the models were correct.
The models never say that there is a 100% chance of anything happening. Hurricanes are just too complex to predict with 100% accuracy, especially, 5 days in advance. But in the 24-48 hour time frame, these models provide enough accuracy to warn people to get out of the way.
I would rather have them predict 5 days out, rather than just 2 days, so people have more time to prepare
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Sitting in my house in Titusville, Fl. Light bands are already coming over even though Irma (my wife’s name by the way) is just north of Cuba (where my wife was born). Winds are light, maybe 5 mph and a very cold, misty rain. I’m not expecting to see the sun for a few days.
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Good luck Jon. God Bless.
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Jon was freaking out two days ago based on the NOAA forecasts which had Irma moving up the east coast of Florida and going right past Cape Canaveral. He wrote about his concerns in comments on this blog.
Now Irma is almost past Miami, and (after many revisions) is now forecast to go up the west coast of FL.
That, Realist, is an example of NOAA forecasts being seriously WRONG
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Actually, it just shows your complete misunderstanding of what the models are supposed to do.
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Yep. NHC model has been quite accurate.
Irma never strayed outside the 1 to 3 day track … nor the 4 to 5 day cone.
Historical 5 day graphic for Irma.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
“NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time.”
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Tony — its already outside the cone that predicted it was headed up the east coast of florida.
The models must be evaluated versus the real world outcome, not against revised guesses.
The cone that included a Cat3 storm slamming into Charleston SC (only two days ago!!!) does not gibe with today’s revised cone. The models were wrong.
And no amount of revisionist history is going to fix that.
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No it didn’t.
You can stop the interactive at any point. Stop it on Thursday and both 1 to 3 day and 4 / 5 day still covered western Florida.
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–> “You can stop the interactive at any point. Stop it on Thursday and both 1 to 3 day and 4 / 5 day still covered western Florida.”
I also could have flipped a coin and had a 50/50 chance of guessing which coast would be hit. Statistically speaking, such a model would be “correct”.
Such a model would be worthless, and no one in the real world would pay the millions of dollars that are extorted from taxpayers to fund NOAA.
If NOAA wants to charge millions, they can’t be statistically correct. They need to be correct for real. And they were not.
That is the difference between academia and real world. Being statistically correct only matters if you have an infinite bank roll to bet wrong many many times. The odds might be in your favor, but you can still go broke.
If you are going to evacuate major cities and scare people, you need to be 100% correct in your prediction — not correct “on average”
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Thanks for the link Tony. However, Medex won’t pay attention to facts. He doesn’t want to understand the science or the technology. It interferes with his beliefs.
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If you are going to evacuate major cities and scare people, you need to be 100% correct in your prediction — not correct “on average”
Wow. You have said a lot of stupid things, but I think that one takes first place for stupidity!
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Crys: EXCELLENT website for the visuals.
I love “My Radar” app on my iPhone. very similar – can watch live wind patterns (and everything else, too) all over the world….can see it coming!!
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Yes, I was surprised to find it embedded in a news article and it is new to me… maybe it is just recently introduced? Anyway, I found it very clear and simple to manage, counts for a lot.
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