The hurricane models now suggest Irma will veer west, missing a direct hit on Miami. Instead, expectations are the storm will track up the West coast of Florida towards Tampa. Winds died down to 125 MPH over Cuba, making Irma category 3, but the models expect Irma to be category 4 when it strikes Southern Florida.
Here is the latest from AccuWeather as of 11:32 EDT.
After blasting the northern Caribbean, deadly Hurricane Irma will turn toward the United States, unleashing destructive winds, flooding rain and inundating seas across Florida through the weekend.
“Unfortunately, there is no way the United States is going to avoid another catastrophic weather event,” Dr. Joel N. Myers, founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather said.
“There will be massive damage in Florida. [It will be] the worst single hurricane to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992,” Myers said.
Preparations should already be completed across the Sunshine State.
The current track of Irma will bring severe and life-threatening impacts to all of the Florida Keys and a large portion of the Florida Peninsula, including Key West, Key Largo, Tampa, Fort Myers, Naples, Sarasota and Miami.
After the center of Irma tracked along the northern coast of Cuba Saturday morning, Irma became a Category 3 hurricane.
AccuWeather meteorologists are still concerned that once Irma begins to turn north and head over the warm water of the Florida Straits, Irma will restrengthen. Regardless, Irma remains a powerful hurricane.Irma is projected to be at Category 4 strength when it makes landfall initially across the Keys and then southwest Florida on Sunday morning. Wind gusts past 140 mph in these areas could lead to a swath of catastrophic damage.
Irma had sustained 185-mph winds for 37 hours, the longest any cyclone in the world has maintained such intensity. Super Typhoon Haiyan previously set the record in 2013 when it maintained winds at that level for 24 hours.
25% of Florida to Evacuate
Irma’s Outer Wind Bands have reached Florida and the largest evacuation in history is underway.
At least 5.6 million people have been asked to evacuate Florida, which is more than 25 percent of the state’s population.
The islands of St. Barthelemy, St. Martin and Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands took a direct hit from Irma on Wednesday morning. Irma’s 150-mph-plus winds and at least 12-foot storm surge caused catastrophic damage.
So far, Irma has killed at least 20 people in the Caribbean, the AP reported. One person was killed in Florida after falling 15 feet while putting up storm shutters.
11:30 a.m. EDT Saturday: Irma has weakened slightly, but still remains a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph.
While the eye is currently located along the coast of Cuba, the northern part of the storm is beginning to hit Florida with heavy downpours and gusty winds. At least 30,000 customers are without power with this number likely to rise as Irma tracks closer later this weekend.Mandatory evacuations have been expanded around Cape Coral and Fort Myers, Florida due to the threat of significant storm surge.
Scene in Miami
Florida Keys Emergency
The Washington Post comments on the Full-Scale Emergency.
“In the FLORIDA KEYS, it is a full-scale hurricane emergency,” Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel’s hurricane specialist, posted to Facebook. “Key West is probably going to get its worst storm in modern history, and perhaps ever.”
He added: “In SOUTHWEST FLORIDA – the NAPLES-FT. MYERS-CAPE CORAL area, the potential exists for the worst hurricane in history. The core of Hurricane Irma, potentially with winds gusting over 150 mph or more, is going to come close. Buildings in Southwest Florida are not, in general, built to withstand these winds.”
At 11 a.m. Saturday, Irma was positioned 175 miles southeast of Key West, barreling to the west at 9 mph. Late Saturday, the storm is predicted to turn north, passing over the Keys and then up the west coast. But slight shifts in this projected track were still possible.
Because of the shift in the most likely storm track to the west, Southeast Florida is most likely to miss the storm’s intensely destructive core, known as the eyewall, where winds are strongest. Even so, because of Irma’s enormous size, the entire Florida peninsula and even the panhandle were likely to witness damaging winds. The National Hurricane Center warned the storm would bring “life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state.”
A computer model projection showed nearly 2 million power outages were possible in Florida and the Southeast U.S. from the storm’s winds.
Irma’s peak winds had lessened some on Saturday morning, with peak winds of 125 miles per hour, as it center scraped over Cuba’s north coast, interfering with its circulation.
But once Irma moves back over the water of the Florida straits, some of the warmest in the world (nearly 90 degrees), it is forecast to restrengthen some. The National Hurricane predicts it will make landfall at a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph peak winds.
Best Wishes to Florida
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Millions told to evacuate ?! And, pray, how? It is much too late for that.
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Yes and because they have to be seen as “doing something” government orders an evacuation that could result in thousands being stranded on the side of the roads with no gas, food, or water.
Thus creating a situation that may end up being worse than the threat.
This is what you get when you allow your politicians to control such things…
Yes I am saying that the solution is for government to do nothing.
If we – given all the information available to us – can’t decide when we need to GTFO of Dodge… We deserve whatever befalls us.
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Yes, the highways would be jammed if even a major fraction of that number tried to move North or East….
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Imagine if we had electric cars with a range of 200 miles… that 200 mile range becomes 50 miles max in bumper to bumper, then come the floods with the 300 VDC lithium ion battery packs hoisted in place underneath the car… dare you to get out when the fire starts.
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In bumper-to-bumper traffic (or at any speed) an electric car’s drive motors would draw current proportional to its speed. No speed, no battery draw; you’d still get 200 miles. Running air conditioning, fans, lights, radio, GPS, SatNav, dash cams, and other accessories is another matter.
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Its going to hit Miami. No wait, its targeting Mar-a-lago for political reasons. No wait, its definitely going up the east coast, smashing Ft Lauderdale and Cape Canaveral before devastating Savana GA and South Carolina. No wait, its back to targeting Miami.
Evacuate Miami! No evacuate Cape Canaveral! Everyone head over toward Naples and Tampa!
No wait!! actually Irma is going to miss Miami and hit Naples / Tampa. Everyone who listened to NOAA and left Miami for the safety of Naples / Tampa should have stayed right where you were.
After enough earnings revisions, even Wall Street analysts manage to “predict” earnings per share numbers spot on. How many revisions will NOAA issue before their forecast starts to close in on reality?
The experts are just guessing. The storm is going to hit somewhere, and people nearby should keep their eyes open… but their TV off.
I would like to think people will learn from all this random guessing, and as we are rebuilding Houston and either Charleston,SC or Tampa,FL… lets stop real estate developers from filling in mangrove fields, from building on sand dunes, from putting major population centers at sea level in hurricane alley.
More common sense when constructing homes, less media hysteria and guessing what major city to evacuate over highways that are overloaded even on sunny days.
Wishful thinking, but I can always dream
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Borrowed from ZH :
“Irma, where are you going? ”
“I’m going to Disney World!”
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Ha. Yesterday a friend and I speculated on whether Irma would pull a Sharknado on Disney World … or at least drop a few gators from the Everglades on it.
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Mickey Mouse spotted at 10,000 ft….
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For all we know, Irma’s headed to Houston to finish it off, but she deserves a day or two at the Magic Kingdom after all her hard work over the past week.
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I was just watching a Havana news cast on Irma ( takes me back in time), but anyway… sort of reality there is that the city is sat straight in its trajectory and Irma “HAS TO” change course like a computer predicted… or else. Sort of like a dare where you don’t have any choice but to sit and participate…gulp.
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How can that be possible? Computers don’t make mistakes.
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I am just saying that a government employee looks at NOAA and claims they saved however many lives (which is unprovable). They don’t look at the cost of evacuating Miami / Ft Lauderdale, because that doesn’t show on FEMA statistics
Someone in the private sector would ask: how much does NOAA/FEMA cost plus the cost of last minute evacuations (many of which are unnecessary)… versus the cost of enforcing solid construction standards in major cities and just doing a straight line interpolation of storm path from simple satellite imagery.
It speaks volumes that the socialists in the USA (and around the world who comment on this blog) are so adamant that more NOAA and more FEMA is the only answer worth considering.
NOAA/FEMA have had the same effect on hurricane damage that SLMA/Pell Grants had on college tuition, and the same effect as Obamacare on health costs.
The answer to every question is not: well, just increase the budget.
Disneyland is crazy expensive, but even the magic kingdom doesn’t run on a magic unlimited budget.
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I was being sarcastic. I was thinking about the full meaning of the big push to AI.
BTW, Al Gore’s hockey stick model was off by miles.
When I read John Gatto’s books on the dumbing down of American schools, I realized it means that Americans are getting dumber by the generation. AI is supposed to make up the difference in losses of human judgment. I get the sense that it’s accelerating the process.
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🙂 I saw your sarcasm.
I suspect the Disney commenters were half sarcastic, and half making fun of me… so I clarified further. We don’t need FEMA. FEMA makes things worse
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There’s a reason why, back in the days of Cold War 1.0, we in OJCS referred to them as FEEBLE.
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I wasn’t making fun of you Medex, the Disney quote to me sort of speaks of how a hurricane has a mind of its own, maybe how the US is a playground, or even that it derides people’s efforts to avoid it as unreal or insulting even. Not sure really, but it struck me as a harsh dose of realism to counter how people tend to morph their own reality, using something like a hurricane to transpose their own importance.
If Irma will go to Disney then to Disney she will go, no matter what people think or do.
I would not argue with her, seriously.
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NOAA is doing its work. The results from their models are made available on an ongoing basis. In the past, people would just sit there and hope for the best. The fatalities in major hurricanes would be in the thousands. The media discuss the results on a minute-by-minute basis, civic authorities issue evacuation orders days in advance because they don’t want to be told later that they did nothing even though they “knew”.
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My sister lives in the Keys.
Mom has been a “tad” worried.
They are in Georgia now.
It will be interesting to see how their concrete fortress holds up. Not that it makes much difference if everything else annihilated.
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Need to start again somewhere, or more importantly need to be able to start again.
I actually don’t think it will be the disaster some predict, but I would act as if it were.
Thoughts to all, must not be fun being caught up in.
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I think it will be bad. There is no elevation. NHC forecasting storm surge of 5 to 10 ft for the Keys.
Typical Keys home –
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Will see. Flooding is not the end, damage to vegetation is miserable but short, a lot of wind damage looks severe but is not so much. Problem is wave damage or heavy structural damage by wind , as well as infrastructure damage making it unliveable. I guess it will depend on strength, path/quarter of Irma plus if the outside acts as wave barrier. No consolation but at worse at least you would be left with a prime piece of land, more than some others can hope for .
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Here is a live from Mallory Square Key West, for as long as it stays up I suppose. Faces west I think so will show the surge but maybe not waves.
In the Bahamas they are saying the water is blown away
https://mobile.twitter.com/altNOAA/status/906540175756587016?ref_src=twsrcgoogle|twcampserp|twgrtweet
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Mallory went offline… there is
Or a couple others at
https://www.boston.com/news/national-news/2017/09/09/5-webcams-you-can-watch-for-hurricane-irmas-arrival-in-florida
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How many people would build such a hurricane target if they didn’t think FEMA would send the bill to taxpayers in Nebraska? ZERO.
FEMA is causing a lot of the hurricane property damage by encouraging hurricane targets such as this to be built.
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Keys surge levels
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/view.html?name=IRMA
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Just looking at webcam, tide level, I am GUESSING most of the keys is spared major damage. I think property exposed to southerly swell will be badly damaged. I have no way to calculate how far in/high the surge from waves would be from the shoreline. Here is to hoping.
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This reminds me of the 1935 hurricane that hit the Florida keys and west coast:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane
The only way to Key West at that time was by train, and a train sent to evacuate residents was blown off the track. Because of the damage, that RR line never ran again. Eventually the RR bridges were repaired and became the highway to Key West.
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going to be hell in markets on Monday
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for the shorts … or the longs?
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I’d hedge and go for the Bermudas, but Jose might be headed that way too… damn 😦 .
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I have friends in Bermuda. They are already preparing, just in case.
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So they know about me do they?
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I will tell them to expect you.
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I guess there are still flights out of Bermuda then.
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The hurricane was just downgraded to Cat 3.
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From 2pm advisory:
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it
moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane as it approaches Florida.
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Winds in Naples FL are about 10mph, with gusts about 15… the eye of Irma still a long way away, but its a big storm (200 miles across?) . The leading edge (on satellite view) is just south of Tampa — Naples is well inside the spirals.
Hopefully it will continue to lose power where ever it heads; maybe it will go a little further west and just fizzle out in the gulf, not hit anyone else.
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It might stay in the gulf and swing north slower, but I don’t think it will fizzle out until landfall.
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it went from Cat5 down to Cat3, with a less defined eye, just bumping along the top of Cuba…
Anyway, I said I **HOPE** it fizzles out at sea. Water temps are pretty high, so it could easily gain strength once it is out over the gulf. But “squished” (SCIENCE TERM 🙂 ) between Cuba and the Keys, its losing a lot of ooomph (another SCIENCE term)
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I think Irma is more likely to squodge the squish and umph the oomph, but you know how temperamental she can be.
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If it does in fact turn out to be a Category 3, it proves my theory. Take the worst forecast and divide by two.
Generally American homes are strong enough to withstand all but the very worst wind speeds. To my way of thinking, it’s the flooding that does the damage. That’s where I find forecasts lacking. Could it be because it reflects on political responsibiity for infrastructure?
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Whether it is high winds or high water, it is a danger to human life and people should evacuate, if possible, before it hits (the earlier, the better).
Whether the winds are 110, 130 or 150 mph, flying debris can kill you and destroy a lot of buildings. Don’t be lulled into a sense of complacency because it got knocked down to Category 3 by running into Cuba. It can just as easily regain strength over the warm waters.
The biggest danger, and the most deaths are from storm surge. The forecasts are calling for storm surge of 5-10 feet in many coastal areas.
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People should wait before leaving. All those Miami-area residents sat in traffic in hot humid weather for nothing. Had they ignored the hype and watched the ‘cone’ as it was updated, they could have saved themselves a lot of trouble.
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+100
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“All those Miami-area residents sat in traffic in hot humid weather for nothing.”
Really? You think that Miami won’t be affected because the cone shifted a little west? This storm is bigger than the state of Florida. Miami may escape the cone, but it won’t escape the storm.
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Here’s a dad and his daughter wandering around Miami. They are staying under an overpass, but they aren’t buying into the “evacuate for socialism” mantra. Native Floridians are used to annual weather events.
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“Evacuate for socialism”?
That’s really stupid, even for you!
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Smart people can evaluate the situation, and decide for themselves whether to evacuate or shelter in place… and given the clogged roadways and overburdened public shelters, sheltering in place is a smart choice if your home was built above sea level and with hurricane shutters.
Dumb people need big government to tell them when to evacuate and what to think.
So yes… evacuate for socialism!! Join your comrades at over-crowded public shelters and eat the mush that airlines won’t serve! All together, one for all and all for one!!
Capitalists will elevate their house, add hurricane shutters and test them regularly — and GASP!!! think for themselves.
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Some people are truly smart. Others just think they are. Your words betray you.
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Since Florida is quite regularly hit by hurricanes and major tropic storms, and weather “predictions” seem to be pulled out of a hat, one would think that people would be prepared…I don’t think you can call something “catastrophic” that occurs on a regular basis. Before the US Government started bailing out people who built on the coasts, fewer than 5 million lived on the entire coastline of the US…
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+100
The money wasted on NOAA hurricane center and FEMA would be better spent on enforcing solid construction standards so people can shelter “in place” for regularly occurring weather patterns
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So, “enforcing solid construction standards” is not socialism?! LOL.
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People have been warned to evacuate for many days. Each day the warnings have grown louder and more urgent. However, it seems common for some people to ignore warnings, until it is too late.
Fortunately, many did listen, and have already gone north, though it is not easy to evacuate millions of people. Since the storm is moving from south to north, it is also hard to know how far north people should travel to escape the danger.
It appears as though Florida is doing the best it can to keep people safe. I’m quite certain that no matter what the state does, people will complain either way (“why did you make me leave?” and “why didn’t you make me leave?”)
The hurricane models have done a great job of showing the possible path of Irma throughout it’s journey. Thank goodness that people were forewarned, and started evacuating several days ago.
Hopefully, it will not end up being the worst case scenario for Florida.
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Thousands of native Floridians, who are quite used to a weather event that happens (in varying severity) every single year, are staying put in their homes. And they are smart to do so. Their homes are built with the knowledge that hurricanes are going to strike.
Too bad for you socialists, but your bankrupt government doesn’t have enough shelter space for everyone if for some reason everyone listened. Logistically it would be impossible for big government to do so, even if they had more competent people working in government (ha ha ha ha ha!!!!).
Back when America had a can-do attitude, instead of a gimme-gimme free sh!t attitude, people took care of themselves and helped their immediate neighbors as best they could. We had smaller government, negligible debt, and economic growth that was the envy of the world.
Now we have socialism, crippling debts, an out of control and incompetent government, and people whining endlessly about very common weather phenomenon.
Socialism causes economic suffering everywhere, and the US is no exception
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I am neither American, nor a Socialist. Because I suggested that the state of Florida is doing their best to protect their citizens (I was trying to pay them a compliment) you go into one of your typical rants.
Since I have expressed concerns for people’s safety, you decide to label me (incorrectly).
You make it very clear that you hate many things: your government, socialism, young people, FEMA, NOAA, and on and on and on and on in your all too numerous posts.
ie. “Now we have socialism, crippling debts, an out of control and incompetent government, and people whining endlessly about very common weather phenomenon.”
My sympathies that you are so full of hate. Very sad.
My sympathies as well to the people of Florida as they live through this storm.
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i’m from the government and here to help
it’s for the children
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Hey vooch. Not sure what you are trying to say.
That the state of Florida should send all the first responders home because they won’t really help? The local fire and police, state troopers, national guard, coast guard, navy, army, etc.
Let people fend for themselves?
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You made the bogus assumption that everyone should have accepted the “orders” to evacuate days ago.
The public infrastructure cannot handle the number of people who would be in shelters if even half the population listened. The interstate was a mess for a day and a half because it can’t handle the volume.
And thousands of Floridians are sheltering in place. Some because they have to — there aren’t enough ambulances to evacuate the elderly. Some because they anticipated that a hurricane strike in Florida was a certainty sometime during the building’s lifetime, so they respected mother nature and adapted the house accordingly. That is smart.
Now read my lips, kiss my intern, WMDs are a slam dunk, and if you like your current doctor and health plan…. putting your faith (and your life) in the hands of US politicians is not smart.
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“You made the bogus assumption that everyone should have accepted the “orders” to evacuate days ago.”
Actually, my assumption is that self-preservation is important to everyone. And if I was warned about the possibility of death due to an oncoming storm, I would do what I could to protect the people I love. If that mean’s evacuating, that’s what I would do if I could. I would not wait till there was 100% certainty of impending doom.
“The public infrastructure cannot handle the number of people who would be in shelters if even half the population listened.”
That’s a second reason why I would evacuate. Not enough room at the shelters.
“The interstate was a mess for a day and a half because it can’t handle the volume.”
That’s why I would heed the first warning and leave as early as possible, rather than wait till it’s too late.
” there aren’t enough ambulances to evacuate the elderly.”
That’s why they have public shelters, and another reason for me to evacuate my family. I don’t want to take spaces in the shelter from those elderly.
For those that have stayed behind in their own homes, I say good luck and God Bless. I hope that they have indeed prepared as well as you say they have. I hope that the number of deaths is zero. I hope that you are right that everyone is ready.
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Realist, for someone who says he doesn’t live in the US — you certainly have a lot of long distance opinions about how efficient the US government is. Like everywhere else in the world, local knowledge is a lot better.
Miami and Tampa hotels are now filled up with out of town media and “reporters” — who theoretically have better access to the FL governors warnings (since they reported on said warnings). Yet they aren’t leaving town, they are hunkering down in the very places everyone has been told to evacuate.
Even the media personalities take US government “mandatory evacuation orders” as mere suggestions.
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Yeah, but they are on a budget nowadays since advertising is down. How they supposed to make a living? You get to combine low season room rates, vacation time, weather reports, dramatic scenery, police action and flashing lights and sirens, and people that look like they emerged from a cave stumbling around, plus to promote suppliers of dinghies and lifejackets and bio suits, all wrapped in to one neat package for a captive audience looking to see if they get a glimpse of whether their houses are still there. Just something none of them will pass coz that’s the way it is.
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“Realist, for someone who says he doesn’t live in the US — you certainly have a lot of long distance opinions about how efficient the US government is.”
Hey Medex. The reality is that I don’t have a lot of faith in the US government for dozens of reasons. They are perhaps the most dysfunctional government I have ever seen. You assume that I am a huge supporter of your government. I am not. Your personal disdain for all things government in the US, apparently makes you think that anyone who disagrees with you on any topic, must be a supporter of your government. You are mistaken.
Similarly, you seem to think I am a Socialist. My friends would laugh hysterically if they heard that. Just because I disagree with you on many topics, you label me as something I am not.
I would label myself as a realist and a pragmatist and open-minded. That has served me well throughout my life and contributed much to my success.
“Like everywhere else in the world, local knowledge is a lot better.”
I agree with that statement in general. However, sometimes people can’t see the forest for the trees. Viewing things from a distance can provide quite a different perspective. That can be helpful.
I am following this hurricane (from far away), and I am watching your government and it’s agencies respond. I actually think that they are doing everything they can to help protect people. I have been particularly impressed with NOAA and their forecasts, and I have been impressed with the state of Florida and it’s warnings. (it’s not often I’m impressed with your government). I will give them a compliment on this one. I have no axes to grind.
“Miami and Tampa hotels are now filled up with out of town media and “reporters” — who theoretically have better access to the FL governors warnings (since they reported on said warnings). Yet they aren’t leaving town, they are hunkering down in the very places everyone has been told to evacuate.”
That’s their job and they are willing to take on the risks. If they were not doing this job, fewer people would be informed as to what is going on, and more people would die. Just like your first responders, who are waiting to help people after the storm strikes. All the media and first responders are educated enough to take all the appropriate precautions. In spite of taking all the best precautions though, sometimes they die while doing their job. It’s no different then being in the military, or police, etc. They are aware of the risks and they accept them.
All these people taking these risks, have a reason to be there. One of those reasons is to inform and help those who refused to leave.
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I think you are both right somewhere. What strikes me is how transient/mobile populations are now. In “the old days” people were where they were at, and arranged their world around that. Pest, famine, war, after large natural disaster, they would move if need be. Now it is all more fluid, but maybe less resilient at the same time… there is only so much displacement that is wothwhile or possible without negative feedback.
Same goes for the press…independent journalism and information are vital, but no one is going to say that we haven’t lost some/much trust in the media lately, for various reasons, from propaganda through to it becoming nothing more than trivial misinformed entertainment. Similar phenomenon – great mobility and saturation but loss of definition.
Strange world we live in, when meanings become detached or overfocused.
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Hey Crys. You make some good points. The world has indeed changed a lot.
In my lifetime, the world has become far more complex. I learned long ago that there is nothing I can do to stop the world from changing. All I can do is adapt to it. That view has served me well.
I have also learned to be pragmatic when it comes to dealing with government, businesses or people. I have dealt with governments that were right wing, centrist, and left wing. I have dealt with a variety of business people who were on all sides of the political spectrum as well (personally, I am apolitical). The most successful (and impressive) business people, were the ones who could set aside their political beliefs, and not let those beliefs interfere with their business success.
One of the most interesting changes that I have seen in the last few years, is the number of people who have lost faith in their government, businesses, institutions, celebrities, and the media. People would rather believe in dubious conspiracy theories, while ignoring the institutions that they used to rely on. While I am not a fan of most governments, they have a role to play in our world, and I wish them well in trying to execute their role.
And from where I sit, the media doesn’t seem to be promoting “fake news” like so many on this site seem to think. Though, since I watch news from all over the world, my perspective may be a little different than Americans.
I am a big believer in free markets, competition, and businesses in general. Yet, I hear more people complain that businesses are all corrupt. While there will always be a few corrupt people in business, in general, most business people I know are very honest and want to support the communities they reside in.
Overall, there is just so much more negativity today, which I consider a waste of time and energy. I am by nature, an optimist. I look for the positives in life.
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I live by a similar moto, the main difference being though that I am not too happy accepting what I have come across. This is just personal experience of some quite heavy events, getting caught up in other people’s arguments and finding out more than I should know. I am probably younger than you, the gfc 2008, the Euro, new authority knocked the country where I lived out of balance and I watched this unfold around me. I used to be care free at this level (politics sucks) but no more, have seen, am aware of, too many people hurt. I don’t think great conspiracy, the structure is made to serve, and you end up with whatever people and ideas in charge of it. Sometimes they are less than worthy, often the structure is false. Imagine Snowden but not even having released secret material or any semblamce of wrong…you like to travel, visit family while they are here, have business, dreams. You would not like to experience having family directly threatened by inexperienced or corrupt people who you thought were there to serve . Just understand I am not the typical commentator… I don’t complain, others have much worse to deal with, and others complain continuously over nothing. You don’t know this side to it, and you are better off not knowing it, but if you ever have to look into specifics and turn over what goes on behind the scenes, “it ain’t as pretty as it seems”. Reaches a point where people just don’t tolerate more … you can be positive from outside and say ‘ wtf, look at all you have, the possibilities ‘ and you’d be right, and sometimes that is all it takes… but you aren’t those people tied into their lives, loyalties, history, commitments, sentiments, responsibilities … and sometimes it is just not that simple.
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Hey Crys. You are correct. Very little in life is “simple”. I shake my head in both frustration and amusement at those who want simple solutions to complex problems. No wonder they are so angry. However, I can’t caught up in their anger, as it is a waste of my time and energy.
I give some of my time to a charity that helps retrain people who have lost their jobs. These people have good reason to show anger at their situation. However, the vast majority of them are thankful that there is someone there to help them learn the skills that they need to get a new job. I wouldn’t be able to do that if they were all angry and bitter.
Like I said earlier; I can’t stop the world from changing. All I can do is to help people adapt to it.
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A little off topic, but related due to its absence. What ever happened to hurricane Kim Jong um and his threats of nuclear force winds?
I think of him as a wack-a-mole. Always useful when the propaganda media has slow days.
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I grew up in Polk County, just east of Tampa. We all survived Hurricane Donna in 1960 when I was a teen. My sister is there now. They got ready LAST weekend, not that they needed to do much. Been there and done it; smart people living there are always ready.
Most people living “inland” like my sister would be far better off staying put, either in their own place, with friends, or in a shelter.
These mass evacuations are a mistake. People caught out in this storm in traffic jams or “riding it out” along the road somewhere are in for a long night.
Maybe I’m just “old”, but people are such wimps and candy asses these days.
After Donna’s(in the top 10 hurricanes to hit the USA) destruction, people around Polk County just got to cleaning stuff up themselves—cause they did NOT leave. I recall piles of trees all around everywhere for months—waiting to be burned in place or hauled away.
School was back in session in a week or two.
There was NO FEMA!!
All these disasters of late are just more “conditioning” of the sheeple by FEMA for when the “big reconciliation” arrives and markets crash, etc. etc.—and BIG Gov;t needs the sheeple to “obey” its edicts.
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+1000
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Actually if you look at google maps the roads were clear most of the day. Now, at 6pm Sat (local time) there are only a few tiny places with congestion. Unless google maps traffic is completely wrong (and it was certainly showing major problems yesterday) the evacuation is not going to leave people stranded in traffic jams while the storm approaches — assuming new ones don’t form, of course.
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Mish, I don’t think that Irma can hit Tampa.
Irma is moving in a vector parallel to N. Cuba coast, aiming at Houston.
Irma is a hurricane with a counter the clock spin (a centrifuge force), moving like a soccer ball on Cuba coast line.
Once it will enter the gap between southern FL & Cuba it will be compressed, sending
turbulence and harmony waves in every direction.
Key West is no hurdle for the storm.
With a counter the clock spin ==> Irma cannot ride over the western parts of FL.
Irma will burst out of the gap, gaining strength, probably moving on the same original vector,
moving to the north west and hitting oil assets for the 2nd time.
It might cont’ roll over the western parts of Cuba, which are tilting south, beyond the gap in direction to Yucatan, making room for the storm and spare TX from a 2nd strike.
Cuba coast line is flat, southern FL, is a cone, creating most of the disturbance, forcing
the storm to hug Cuba and send it west, towards Mexico.
Key West is a thin gate sending the storm south.
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We spend billions to equip NOAA and NWS with the latest hi-tech gadgets to figure out Mother Nature’s next move and they still get it wrong 70% of the time. They don’t know one hour to the next what direction IRMA is headed. My guess is that she continues to shift west, picks up steam and takes out the Panhandle. Good as guess as any.
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Hurricanes are extremely complex. Every year the models get better and predict with greater accuracy, the possible paths of a hurricane. They have actually done a good job on this one.
I am copying Tony Bennett’s post from another thread, below with the link he provided. You can copy and paste it into your browser. It shows how good the forecasts have been:
Tony Bennett
Yep. NHC model has been quite accurate.
Irma never strayed outside the 1 to 3 day track … nor the 4 to 5 day cone.
Historical 5 day graphic for Irma.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
“NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time.”
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Never strayed outside the track?
Good God. A couple days ago the “experts” told us Irma would track up the east coast and now they have the eye going up the west coast.
Stop making excuses for these bloated gov agencies that that devour our tax dollars.
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You didn’t even check it out, did you oldtimer? Or maybe you did and couldn’t understand it? Sorry.
Not being American, I couldn’t care less about your government agencies.
Just hitch your pants up higher to your armpits, and keep complaining about your government full-time.
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“A couple days ago the “experts” told us Irma would track up the east coast and now they have the eye going up the west coast.”
The distance between the two coasts is a mere 100 miles, my friend. You are talking as if they kept insisting that the hurricane will head over the ocean and then suddenly, it hit land! That is what your super weather forecasting expert Rush Limbaugh said. Not NOAA!
No private agency would have been able to do any better than that. If anything, things would be a lot worse as they would try to cash in on ratings by spreading even more panic.
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Net outcome? Millions evacuated Florida’s eastern seaboard when it was totally unnecessary. So what good are the billion dollar weather satellites? Might as well bring in a group of farmer’s from Iowa w/ $10 weather sticks. Your tax dollars at work.
A private agency could provide better and more accurate services at half the cost without an army of beard scratchers in think tanks w/ six-figure salaries and million dollar pensions at age 55..
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people in America have free choice to live in any area of the country. free to build along the Mississippi river, along the coast, in the keys, etc. they are free to evacuate or hunker down. please tell me what government has to do with peoples individual choices? nothing.
florida is over 400 miles long. rain bands range from the georgia border to well south of cuba….that puts this storm roughly 600mile in diameter.this is a huge storm and will go where it wants to go.
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