On October 1, Catalans head to the polls to vote yes or no on separation from Spain.
The Spanish government and constitutional court claim the referendum is illegal but 700 Catalonia mayors say the vote will take place.
Today Madrid launched a major fearmongering campaign: Catalonia Faces ‘Brutal’ Impoverishment If It Leave, Spain Warns.
“The general impoverishment of the society would be brutal. GDP could fall between 25 and 30 percent and unemployment double,” Economy Minister Luis De Guindos said in an interview with radio Cope.
An independent Catalonia would find itself outside of the eurozone so 75 percent of its products would be slapped with tarifs, banks would have to relocate, and the region would have to set up its own currency, he added.
“The independence of Catalonia would be absolutely irrational from an economic point of view,” the minister said.
Divided Catalonia
The Guardian reports Catalonia divided as controversial poll on independence sparks conflict with Madrid
In two weeks, Catalans will go to the polls to vote in a referendum on whether to secede from Spain and form an independent republic. Or will they?
If the Catalan government’s strategy has been to provoke a reaction from Madrid, it has succeeded. While refusing to discuss the issue, the Spanish government has lashed out with a series of threats, including taking control of Catalonia’s finances by 18 September and abolishing its regional autonomy. It has threatened to bar Catalan leaders from holding office and even warned them that they could face jail. The attorney general has also said that any mayor who allows local authority buildings to be used as polling stations could face prosecution.
Last Wednesday the Civil Guard shut the official referendum website, but within 24 hours Puigdemont had published a new link to the site on his Twitter account. WikiLeaks’s Julian Assange says he has been helping to defend the website.
Critics of the referendum, including Ada Colau, the mayor of Barcelona, say it lacks the necessary guarantees and has set no minimum level of participation. However, she has reached an agreement with Puigdemont to facilitate the vote in the capital.
n a last-ditch effort to break the deadlock, Colau and Puigdemont have sent a joint letter to the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, and the king pleading for dialogue and a legally binding referendum. In the letter, they appeal for an “open and unconditional dialogue”. Rajoy insists that he is open to dialogue on any topic – except a referendum on independence.
The Yes camp has successfully created an image of consensus around independence – witness the million people they mobilized on the streets of Barcelona last week for Catalonia’s national day – but these impressive shows of popular power mask the fact that there is still only a minority in favor of secession. A survey at the end of July found that 49.4% of Catalans were against independence and 41.1% supported it.
When a similar referendum was held in November 2014, 80% voted Yes. However, the turnout of barely 37% suggested that No voters had boycotted the poll. There are fears this will be repeated on 1 October, but the Catalan government seems bent on a declaration of independence, however small the margin in favor.
Polls Accurate?
I cannot find a recent voter poll. The Guardian and other sites keep referring to polls taken about two months ago. Those polls are now useless.
By declaring the vote illegal and threatening Catalonia, prime minister Rajoy may have strengthened the yes vote. Ballot seizures and police actions may have the same effect.
Finally, many in the “no” camp may not turn out to vote because it was declared illegal.
Reflections on Fearmongering
The fearmongering campaign is ridiculous for several reasons.
- The Government said the vote will not take place. The fearmongering implies it will.
- Not only does the fearmongering campaign imply a vote, but the wordage admits that Catalonia could indeed break away.
- Who’s fooling whom?
Catalonia sends far more money to Spain than it gets back.
Thus, Spain is as likely, if not more likely to face an instant recession if and when Catalonia stops sending money to Madrid following a “yes” vote.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I was just in Spain last week after ending a bike trip through the French Pyrenees. Our last stop was Llanca on the Costa Brava. There were a number of Catalan flags with the words SI hanging from the windows. If Llanca is any indication there will be Yes votes. How many I don’t know but I saw no flags in support of Madrid
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Do you realize that if Catalonia secede, they will lose their King. They’ll have to find a new one. Not a small affair. Seriously, appart from the fact that they are a net contributor to the country’s finances, what is the ground for splitting? Because if the only reason is being a net contributor, given the clustering of our societies, where wealth is getting more and more concentrated in small areas, all the rich places will want to build walls around them.
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Don’t really care how they vote (or even if they vote), but Catalonia apparently has a distinct language and cultural history. I’m sure money plays a big role, but it is not the only factor.
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And you know that because…?
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I can read.
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I financialized dystopias, which includes most of the West by now, “the rich places” almost entirely consists of Marie Antoinettes whose wealth is solely derived from having the Central bank and Government rob others on their behalf. If Manhattan decided to build a wall around it and have nothing to do with anyone else, there exists virtually no anyone else who wouldn’t benefit from it. Ditto for most “rich places” in the US, and the rest of the West.
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You’re 98% of the way to being a good Socialist pawn. Workers of the world unite!
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you, on the other hand, are a “capitalist” pawn?
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“Do you realize that if Catalonia secede, they will lose their King. They’ll have to find a new one.”
The United States lost its ‘King’ when it declared independence. To my knowledge, it has never found a new one.
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The Catalans ( in general) did not like the result of the monarchic unification and have since traditionally called for a republic.
Spain had two national republican periods, both short, the last ended in civil war, with Cataluña being the main republican stronghold. The soviet union and Mexico supported the republican side, Germany and Italy the “Nationalist” military. The French took refugees but I think that the welcome ended under Vichy, then continued after the end of the war. There are various ties to France.
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Catalonia was an independent Kingdom for a couple of hundred years, and has a unique culture. Why should they stay with people they don’t like?
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Fairy tales (propaganda, actually). Just read that part of Don Quijote (16th century) when he was in Barcelona.
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The Spanish governrment, like all governments, worships Mammon.
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Guernica.
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Caveat, I’m usually wrong.
Observation, Europe is heading in the wrong direction with the Spanish government being tutored by the Brussells elite.
They have learnt nothing and I suggest the end game will ultimately be violence as various regions will want more self determination and less centralization.
Spain vs Catalonia is just a single side show.
I am wrong, it won’t happen.
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Spaniards never worked after they enslaved South America, Catalan, and Basques. Guess who shall be impoverished.
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You mean ‘enslaved’ like black people in the USA for centuries? One thing you can be certain of, though: Spaniards didn’t exterminate natives.
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So they are essentially saying the same thing that US free-traders tell its people what will happen if Americans ever insist on fair trade practices?
In time, the bluffs of both will be called.
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Vid. of Terrassa just now
http://elmon.cat/monterrassa/noticia/38928/lescorcoll-unipost-terrassa-acaba-cops-porra
As
Confiscate 45000 (of the 55000 I think) letters to summon vote booth attendants.
Nothing too dramatic, and I guess the letters might be sent again, but this is the way it is going.
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Given the screwed up nature of politics and political parties in Catalan I can’t say that i really care what happens. I have not heard whether the “vote” for independence is merely a wish or a command. Are they voting for a mandate for independence, meaning a full frontal attack on Madrid or is this simply an advisory vote to essentially poll how many voters (not total citizens, but voters) want independence. My question is: Who cares? Assuming that the vote is actually for a mandatory separation from Spain the next question would be how would it be arraigned? There are quite a few people of Catalan heritage/birth living in other parts of Spain. What will be their status both in Spain and Catalan? How shall the regular Spaniards be treated? Will they be offered citizenship or be forced to learn Catalan? Then we have the migrants from South America and other countries. What will be their status? So you see, this is not a simple up or down vote. And we haven’t discussed whether the new government, if there is one, will be a socialist government. If so, how will that play out? Given all this uncertainty, i say to you again: Who cares?
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A nation, therefore, has no right to say to a province: You belong to me, I want to take you. A province consists of its inhabitants. If anybody has a right to be heard in this case it is these inhabitants. Boundary disputes should be settled by plebiscite. (Omnipotent Government, p. 90)
No people and no part of a people shall be held against its will in a political association that it does not want. (Nation, State, and Economy, p. 34)
If it were in any way possible to grant this right of self-determination to every individual person, it would have to be done. (Liberalism, pp. 109–10)
https://mises.org/library/mises-secession
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Is there any indication that the Yes will gain the majority? I haven’t seen that. This could fizzle out just like the Scottish referendum.
Now that the Spanish authorities are using police forces to disrupt the referendum is there any chance it will be free and fair? Maybe it will give the pro-independece Catalan authorities the opportunity to count the votes in secret. That could be important for the announced result.
In any case whatever the outcome, will the losing side accept the result? I doubt that will happen and so this will be a bone of contention for some decades to come.
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The polls are not reliable on this vote for many reasons. If there is anything resembling a vote which takes place, which I doubt, independence would win I think, but it would not be a standard plebiscite, it would be distorted by numerous factors. The referendum holders will claim they made it possible to vote and so the result should be valid. Spain will not accept the result, if the referendum is held.
In reality we will see arrests, article 155 implemented maybe ( suspended regional authority), and any other interruption deemed nescessary. In reply will be protests, and the possibility of an immediate declaration of independence if the referendum is impeded – there is some text or agreement in the transitionary law passed by the Catalan parlament to that effect.
Catalan autonomy has been a contention for a very long time and will continue to be afterwards , whatever happens.
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What you label fearmongering is maybe just a form of patronisation. It is funny, I picked up on the slant from the start of the post, and you rounded it up well, but from a perspective of familiarity with the character of those speaking, and you won’t be familiar with it in many other countries, the statement seems more a one sided conversation designed to push aside any question and to round up national support. That in turn is a signal that “the matter is decided”, not a very strong one in terms of a debated understanding, but as independence is not debatable to the speaker or those that would support his wider position, it is good enough as a rhetorical justification.
So though you end up questioning his sincerity on not holding the referendum , in fact he is simply saying he has been considering it for them and has decided it is not for their good, that as the Catalans are in Spain it is a matter of Spanish/government responsibility.
If you stood close enough you would feel the temperature rising I think, one of frustration and resentments.
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The state of Western Australia (about four times the size of Texas) pays more in taxes and royalties than it gets back and intermittently threatens secession from Australia
Not going to happen
.
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I’m from Barcelona living abroad for over 10 years now.
It’s unclear whether Catalan authorities will be able to go ahead with the vote due to the Spanish government and ongoing police actions (confiscating anything related to the referendum they are able to get their hands on).
Polls go up and down, but Independence is somewhere around 50-50. However, in this case, if the vote is able to go ahead, the ‘yes’ is expected to win by far (70+%) given the fact that ‘no’ supporters are mostly not planning on voting (since they see it as an illegitimate vote).
The vote is supposed to be binding from the Catalan perspective (that’s what the approved Catalan law says). However, since it’s not an agreed referendum, the Spanish government suspended such law, calls it illegal and tries to stop it by any means necessary (e.g. police actions mentioned above) .
My best guess is that the vote will go ahead given the broad support in Catalan society (e.g. 700 mayor’s out of 900 have confirmed voting will take place in their towns). The main questions are around to which degree the Spanish government will be able to tarnish it (close polls, scare people away, confiscate ballots, etc.). I expect”yes” to win by far.
The day after I expect the Catalan side to confirm the success, and the Spanish side to confirm its failure.
What happens after is anybody’s guess and will depend on the international support received by the region. Obviously, simply by force, the Spanish side can impose their views, but they are trying not to be too repressive on their own citizens.
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Just some facts about taxes foreigners don’t really now about Spain:
Madrilieños, citizens are the ones paying taxes not regions, contributes way more than Catalonians to the central government. Each madrilieño puts in 2,979 euros ( A Catalonian puts in 1,317 euros per capita). If we add in Madrlieños contribute 19.2 billion euros and Catalonians 9.8 billion euros (representing 10% and 5% of their GDP respectively.
Even though Madridileños contribute more, Madrid region is one with the lowest taxes (I am talking about the autonomous income tax rate, weatlh tax and inheritance tax) of Spain and Calalonia is the other way around. Catalonia is the region of Spain that charge its citizens more specially to lower and middle class people. Af course all in the name of freedom.
I can give all all kind of facts to understand the conflict better but what for? You already fully undertand it.
So guys, should Madrid go after independence too?
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even the govt admits Catalonia contributes more than it gets back, but they differ in pecentages
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“Catalonia sends far more money to Spain than it gets back”
That is untrue, except in the propaganda sources you feed from. Catalonia’s social security has by far the highest deficit in Spain in regional terms (and the longest waiting lists, by far). It receives more than half the money apportioned to Spain’s 17 regional governments, with a much smaller population. It spends huge amounts of Spain’s taxpayers money to buy the fidelity of huge amounts of civil servants, plus full control of MSM (all of which helps a lot to explain that ‘million’ of demonstrators). Madrid’s Autonomous Community does give out much more than it gets (as does probably NY). Should they be allowed to get independence?
You’re discrediting yourself with your childish arguments. In democracy, you just cannot hold a referendum to rob a bank, to discriminate black people or to act against a High Court decision. I wonder if your posts on other subjects are as rigorous as the ones on Catalonia. Perhaps you might want to –again– reconsider your sources, Mish.
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It is universally accepted that Catalonia contributes more to Spain than it gets back. The only question is how much.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29478415
I also like this snip :
With its own language, a recorded history of more than 1,000 years as a distinct region, and a population nearly as big as Switzerland’s (7.5 million), Catalonia’s claim to nationhood is serious.
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Don’t get me wrong, Mish. I personally wouldn’t object to whatever region of Spain becoming independent. My objections in this case are threefold: (a) it is against the Spanish Constitution, hence antidemocratic; (b) it’s the result of a discriminatory, repressive attitude that for decades now has been far worse than Franco’s dictatorship (under which I lived for more than 20 years), including terrorism and minor but persistent acts of violence against non-nationalists; (c) it’s based on blatant lies and propaganda. The existence of Catalonia 1000 years ago is an pure fantasy, as is the notion that it ever remotely had a state. Spanish language and culture have been merciless suppressed by the nationalist regime for decades, hate against Spain has been instillated in the youth, and corruption is rampant in the Administration. Jordi Pujol and his lot are probably the most corrupt politicians in Europe. I don’t like Catalan nationalism for the same reasons I didn’t like Franco’s regime.
The BBC and other leftist sources follow the lines set by leftist historians, economists and politicians, including former president Zapatero, who granted the region its current statute, in exchange for the parliamentary support of the Catalan socialists. Socialists are now beginning to regret their past sympathy for nationalism, but it’s too late already. Sooner or later, Catalonia will become a totalitarian independent state, if not worse. What remains of Spanish culture there will be eradicated, and eventually Spain will disintegrate as the result of the central government’s weakness (for fear of being called fascists —Spanish leftists fully control Spain’s MSM).
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Did you read my post? I know and I did write Catalonians contributes more than they get back. They are not the only ones. Madrid and Baleares contribute way more.
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This sound familiar. Oh yea, Brexit.
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