20% of the Illinois House announced will not run for reelection, many of them are cowardly, corrupt Republicans who voted for a tax hike.
It’s a Huge Stampede for the Door the likes of which Illinois has never seen. They do not want to face voters after passing a huge tax hike.
Thirty state lawmakers in the 100th General Assembly will not be holding their seats in the 101st General Assembly. And that’s not even counting those who might be ousted at the ballot box next year.
The exodus is unlike anything Springfield insiders have ever seen.
In the House, 23 lawmakers will not return to their seats in the 101st General Assembly. That’s nearly a whopping 20 percent of the chamber. The situation is less severe in the Senate, where seven members are certain not to return.
Of the 30 total members of the General Assembly who will not hold on to their seats, three have resigned. Twenty are not running for re-election. Two are House members running for Senate seats. And the remaining five are running for office outside the General Assembly: one for governor, two for lieutenant governor, one for attorney general, and one for a seat on Chicago’s Metropolitan Water Reclamation District (yes, really.)
But the most likely driver is pretty obvious to most Illinoisans: the rage of constituents.
I am not digging into this right now, but I remember in older years, where some politicians would be eligible to get government pensions if they “retired” from their seats as opposed to getting voted out.
Allied Van Lines
Truth in Accounting asks Fleeing or Flocking?
United Van Lines has published an annual interstate migration study for decades. Looking at that study, along with state government financial conditions and related factors, you typically see that states in bad financial shape also tend to have lower trust in state government, and in turn, higher out-migration in recent years.
In addition to states’ migration trends, United Van Lines recently began publishing an analysis of cities. Using a slightly different method, the moving company reported the 10 cities with the highest net in-migration as well as out-migration.
We took a look at those cities to see how they fare in Truth in Accounting’s latest analysis of financial conditions of the nation’s 50 largest cities. Of the 50 largest municipalities, the average Taxpayer Burden calculated for the nine cities with the highest in-migration is one-fourth as high as the average for cities with the highest out-migration. Four of the cities with the highest out-migration rates were New York, Chicago, Boston and San Diego, according to United Van Lines.
Here’s another way to look at it — the average Taxpayer Burden for the six states that have the 10 cities with the highest net out-migration runs five times as high as the average of the Taxpayer Burden for the nine states that are home to the top 10 cities for in-migration.
Illinois, New York and New Jersey account for five of the 10 cities with high net out-migration rates in the United Van Lines study. You can see the lists of the cities United Van Lines ranked here.
We will be releasing an updated report on the finances of the 50 largest cities in the US in January 2018.
Goodbye Illinois, Hello Florida
The Chicago Tribune reported Fed-up Illinois homeowners consider moving: ‘It’s not just the property taxes on my home; it’s all of them’
The day after the Illinois legislature voted to raise the individual income tax rate from 3.75 to 4.95 percent, Northfield-based financial planner Ellen Rogin said she started getting phone calls from clients who are residents of Chicago with second homes in Florida.
The clients, according to Rogin, were saying “I’m worried about Illinois. Should I be moving to Florida?”
Rogin said anyone considering a move has to look at lifestyle, not just taxes.
Chicago certified public accountant Debbie Lessin said that when people consider a move for tax reasons in retirement, they may be missing a crucial element of Illinois’ tax system.
Illinois doesn’t tax retirement income from Social Security, pensions and IRAs, an advantageous provision for retirees living in the state, she said.
The above synopsis is from the Tribune courtesy of Mary Pat Campbell.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
It’s clearly a sinking ship. ‘Yes’ their fault, but can’t say I blame them. I’d get as far away from that sewer as I could before it overflows.
LikeLike
Nothing spells “sewer” like …
…
“Of Illinois’ last seven governors, four have ended up going to prison.”
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2013/01/30/4-of-illinois-last-7-governors-went-to-prison
LikeLike
The smart ones are going to “get out of Dodge” before the State Where the Governors Make the License Plates blows up.
LikeLike
Why is it that the honest people have to run away, abandon their homes and their lives? Why shouldn’t the honest good people just invade the f-ing capital building and physically throw the bums out? Are we so afraid of government that they can push us around and run us off our land with their heavy handedness? That’s how pussies think! Stand and fight them ppl from Illin’ Noise. Take back your corrupt POS state, birthplace of American organized crime. At the very least, don’t bring your liberal ideas to Texas. Liberals are like locusts, they eat everything down to the roots and then move on. If you come to Texas you better come with your conservative hat on. Smaller, more limited government, balanced budget and debt not allowed at the state level. In fact, the state should have a real emergency fund.
LikeLike
Hard to feel sympathy for lawyers
LikeLike
Illinois has the highest overall tax burden in the country. Those retirees who don’t have their ss, IRA or pension taxed still have to pay the state’s overweight personal property taxes.
LikeLike
someone should do a comparative study of (blue v red) tax policies by state.
i don’t have time, but the data is here:
https://www.retirementliving.com/taxes-by-state
would be nice if retirementliving did the work sincde it has the data.
LikeLike
San Francisco at #5 on the Move To list, rather throws a spanner in the works for the theory. All Bay Area residents I know continually complain about the excessive taxes, annoying local government’s love of regulating everything, and ridiculous home prices. Yet people apparently are still moving there. I am surprised Arizona is not on the incoming list, low taxes and relatively low house prices (just crappy education and the Sheriff Joe pardon as negatives, oh, and the 120 degree summers -but some like it hot!).
LikeLike
Golly gee, that awful Sheriff Joe insisted on enforcing the Rule of Law, specifically immigration laws! Terrible!
LikeLike
People move to SF and Silicon Valley hoping for a huge salary and/or stock options, not knowing that VC is a huge bubble. Living in AZ is cheap, but you may end up making very little money, unless you do a niche startup in a budding tech milieu or something like that.
LikeLike
I suspect it will not matter if they retire or get the boot. In the end pensions will be cut. They deserve to have theirs cut first.
LikeLike
As long as I get mine I am happy to do whatever you suggest.
LikeLike
The really insane part is that the overwhelming majority of Illinoisians will gripe like hell about it all, but choose to stay anyway. They deserve what they get!
LikeLike
3.75 to 4.95 percent – so what? A married couple with two children and $100,000 in adjusted gross income, the tax increase amounts to about $1,200 annually or 100 bucks per month. That’s for them a rounding error.
LikeLike
And if Trump gets his wish to eliminate local / state income taxes as deductions on federal returns?
LikeLike
Not significant if the Federal standard deduction is enlarged. And many retirees don’t have enough deductions to itemize even now…
LikeLike
Illinois lawmakers look longingly … at DC’s … printing press …
LikeLike
Illinois doesn’t tax retirement income from Social Security, pensions and IRAs, an advantageous provision for retirees living in the state, she said.
Not yet, but there have already been proposals to change that….Whereas in AZ, TX, or FL, they are not taxed and will stay that way…
LikeLike
Arizona, Texas and Florida are not safe from needing to raise taxes to plug holes in pension gaps.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-05/these-two-charts-depict-which-cities-will-file-bankruptcy-next
LikeLike
cities & states… different governments, different tax structures.
LikeLike
“And Jesus answering said unto them, Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and to God the things that are God’s. And they marvelled at him.” Mark 12:17
He sure wasn’t a tax “advisor”.
LikeLike
Everyone who quotes that seems to miss the fact that Caesar’s spies were watching Jesus, hoping he would do or say something they could arrest him for. Jesus was being politically correct, while not actually saying what he thought really belonged to Caesar.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And just because they’re not taxing those income sources now doesn’t mean they won’t be doing it soon. Get out while you can!
LikeLike
Simply looking at municipality and state balance sheets and unfunded liabilities tells you your future. They WILL be looking for THEIR money…..and it is THEIRS.
LikeLike
Sounds like great opportunity to run for office Mish. I’m betting you would find the Srate legislature far worse than you imagine.
LikeLike
US states and pension funds are potential black swans which can start the global MFC, mega financial crisis.
LikeLike
We get less of whatever is taxed. Do not tax prosperity. Tax the unemployed. Make it hurt.
LikeLike
Don’t forget the new Cook County sweetened beverage tax…that may go full statewide after the dust settles
LikeLike
I wish all the losers in Illinois (bureaucrats and citizens) would STAY IN ILLINOIS.
You folks voted for this nonsense, and if you are allowed to vote in other states, how do we know you won’t go F things up again (still)? You could vote these bums out. You could do a recall vote. You could impeach them for all manner of crimes.
Instead, you want to run away and start the same problems somewhere else?
STAY IN ILLINOIS. Enjoy the socialist utopia you voted for
LikeLike
That’s a great way of looking at it, Mr. Medex, I completely agree.
LikeLike
Sure, let Ill. just implode and be the black swan which takes down the world economy. The reaon states and pension funds are goners is that it’s impossible for the Federal govt to bail all of them out.
LikeLike
Unfettered politically endorsed government spending creating unsustainable debt levels . Its time for some haircuts. Mr market will then decouple from central bank’s policies .
LikeLike
Hey Mish, what about Warren Buffett just buying 38.6% of the Pilot/Flying J Diesel fueling chain? Seems like he’s looked at electric and didn’t see the seismic change from diesel fuel.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-buys-stake-in-pilot-flying-j-1507038130
LikeLike
Are you kidding? If it takes 10 minutes to refuel a big rig today, but 20+ minutes to recharge an electric (with 1/2 the range), truck stops are going to be a very big business in the coming years. And it still be a very long time until the truly autonomous vehicles are around. Just look at the railroad industry, which should have been completely autonomous years ago, or at least completely remote controlled.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Do you think the next bunch of scoundrels that the Illinois voters replace them with will be any better?
LikeLike
Let’s split Cook and DuPage off from the rest of us and let them prove how we need them more than they need us. I’m more than ready to be free from those two bloodsucking counties. Illinois would be a nice red state without the DuPage RINO’s and Cook Dhimmicrats.
LikeLike
On average, that’s pretty decent logic Medex, especially
LikeLike
Did you forget about St. Clair County, Jake? The home of East St. Louis has the highest homicide rate of all US cities. Quite a distinction!
LikeLike
Or Dumbocrats and Repugnicans. They all swim in the same cesspool.
LikeLike
Dennis Hastert was sent to prison for withdrawing his own money from a bank account registered in his own name and SSN. He took out too much without alerting the Federal authorities.
Just ponder that for a moment or two.
However repulsive an individual you may find him to be based on his past behaviour as a sexual predator (or Illinois legislator) it’s NOT what he was charged with.
All he was trying to do was meet the demands of the extortionist who was threatening to publicly expose Hastert’s past. It’s a perfectly reputable matter for an IL congressman to engage in.
LikeLike
Those General Assembly retirees may pocketed the last remaining dollars in the GARS retirement kitty.
“The pension fund for Illinois lawmakers is the state’s most insolvent system. Taxpayers bail it out every year. If they didn’t, the General Assembly Retirement System, or GARS, would only have enough assets to pay retired politicians for another 2.5 years.
…
To help prop up the system, taxpayers are required to contribute 11 times more than lawmakers to the pension fund. In 2015, the state (meaning taxpayers) will put nearly $16 million toward lawmaker pensions. Lawmakers, on the other hand, will put in just $1.5 million.
By 2045, taxpayers will be paying more than $43 million a year into GARS while lawmakers will be contributing only $4 million.”[1]
Illinois Policy makes for interesting bedtime reading … if you like horror stories before nodding off to sleep.
Kiisu
1. https://www.illinoispolicy.org/why-wont-illinois-lawmakers-reform-their-own-pensions/ more at https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/pensions-101-understanding-illinois-massive-government-worker-pension-crisis/
LikeLiked by 1 person
Denver is number 4 on the list, and Colorado overall has “enjoyed” a growing population for the last decade or so.
I’m fine with more people, but could they please remember why they left the hell hole they came from? This year’s election ballot has prop 4a, a proposal to build more beds in the local hospital. Last election had a pretty big tax hike/teacher pay increase. Seems to me if the area is growing and property taxes, based on annual assessments, should automatically bring in more revenue to pay teachers more? And if the hospital is so busy why do they need more funding to build more beds? Shouldn’t they be setting aside some of the insane prices they charge for capital projects? But no, we need more. And all the transplants want the same gold-plated service that pushed them over the top in the place they came from.
So Denver gets light rail boondoggles, rural areas get shiny new schools that look like Frank Gehry designed them, and the old timers who wanted to retire here are going to be pushed out. And in the case of Aspen or Cherry Creek, the old timers are cashing out and the new money is putting up virtual walls around the town to keep the deplorables out.
LikeLiked by 1 person
In the plus column Chicago gets to sit squarely at the bottom of this list.
http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-bubble-risk-cities-ubs-2017-9/#amsterdam-1
LikeLike