What’s the point in telling someone they cannot do something, you know full well they will?
Prime minister Mariano Rajoy said there would be no Catalonia independence referendum. He lied. Despite sending in 10,000 troops to stop the referendum, there was a vote and it was 90% in favor of kissing Spain goodbye.
On Thursday, the Spanish Court Blocked the Catalan Parliament from Declaring Independence. Wanna bet?
Spain’s constitutional court has moved to stop the Catalan government making a unilateral declaration of independence by suspending the regional parliament session in which the results of Sunday’s referendum were due to be discussed.
The court warned that any session carried out in defiance of its ban would be “null”, and added that the parliament’s leaders could face criminal action if they ignored the court order.
The Madrid government has refused to rule out invoking article 155 of the constitution. The article, which has never been used, makes provision for the central government to step in and take control of an autonomous region if it “does not fulfill the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain”.
However, given the heightened tensions in Catalonia and the huge protests seen across the region this week, the move could prove counterproductive, and Puigdemont has already warned that the triggering of the article would be the Spanish government’s “ultimate mistake”.
Catalonia ‘Civil War’
The Telegraph reports Catalonia ‘civil war’ warning as independence declaration fears grow.
The EU’s budget commissioner has warned of the risk of “civil war” in Catalonia, as fears grew over a looming independence declaration and major banks prepared to relocate their headquarters.
As another day passed with no sign of dialogue and pro-independence parties pushed for the declaration of a Catalan Republic as early as Monday, Gunther Oettinger, the budget commissioner, urged the two sides to talk.
“The situation is very, very disturbing. A civil war is planned in the middle of Europe,” Mr. Oettinger said in Munich.
Bank Attack
Reuters reports Spain to make it easier for firms to move base from Catalonia as business alarm deepens.
Spain’s government will issue a decree on Friday making it easier for firms to transfer their legal base out of Catalonia, two sources said, in a move that could deal a serious blow to the region’s finances as it considers declaring independence.
The decree is tailor-made for Spanish lender Caixabank, sources familiar with the matter said, as it would make it possible for the bank to transfer its legal and tax base to another location without having to hold a shareholders’ meeting as stated in its statutes.
“The government is working on changing the law so that it’s no longer need to have a shareholders’ meeting, which would delay a change of the legal base in a case of emergency,” one of the sources said.
The board of Caixabank will meet on Friday to study a possible transfer of its legal base away from Catalonia due to the political uncertainty in the region, a source familiar with the situation said.
Caixabank is Catalonia’s biggest company by market value and accounts for around 50 percent of the region’s banking sector.
Another Catalonia-based bank, Sabadell, Spain’s fifth-biggest lender, decided on Thursday to move its base from Catalonia to Alicante, on Spain’s eastern coast.
Early next week, it’s highly likely Catalonia will tell Rajoy and the Spanish court where to go.
Then what?
10,000 troops could not stop a vote. Will Spain send in 100,000 troops? Block all the banks?
In regards to the latter question, Eurointelligence notes a paradox.
“A bank domiciled in a Catalonia whose independence is not recognized would remain, for all legal purposes, within the territory of the monetary union, and the Bank of Spain and ECB could be in violation of the law if they denied it liquidity.”
Stay tuned.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Spanisch kings can be pretty stubborn…The 80-year war was needed to get independence for the Netherlands. Like the situation in Catalonia, getting it was probably not according to whatever constitution Spain had in those days.
It was easy to cast a vote for independence, and equally easy to see that Spain would not grant the independence regardless of the vote. From here on out the road is bumpy, and war may well be where this ends up.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave / When first we practise to deceive!”[1]
Seems we’ve a lot of that going on nowadays … and not just in SW Europe.
Strap in tight, I suspect life will become even _more_ interesting for a while.
Kiisu
1. Marmion (wiki) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marmion_(poem)
Well, yes!
Madrid and the Spanish king declared war on Catalonia by sending in troops and mobilizing banks for economic retaliation against the region. The EU is lending moral support to crush Catalonia. Too late for Catalonia to capitulate and repudiate the independence vote. No going back, just as there was no going back for Moses leading the exodus out of Egypt. Come whatever hardships, the movement for freedom will go on, even if is another 80 Years War like the one giving the Netherlands independence from Spain.
Only question is how bloody the Spanish central government will make this. Spain as a whole will suffer mightily, if they revert to brutality. I suspect both Madrid and the EU will pursue a scorched earth policy, akin to how NATO countries bombed Serbia and turned Libya into rubble. Madrid and Brussels “need” brutality to send a message to Hungary and other former nation-states slowing awakening to their loss of sovereignty under EU rule. In the end, Spain will look like the Middle East as terrorist groups come into being to respond to the atrocities. Wars take on a life of their own, and war against Catalonia is the new reality.
The EU will come out of this looking awful.
The amalgamation of state and business for the furtherance of the power of the centre.
Fascist is the only way to describe such.
Where are all the Liberal Democrat voices now?
Silence.
The world no longer acknowledges wars much less declare a war unless it is the war on drugs or some other non state entity. They just invade as they see fit. Much easier that way. I smell UN peacekeepers on the horizon.
A bitesize history…not that long ago really…. the second Spanish republic formed in ’31 after the previous dictatorship light led by Rivera lost credibility, the king who supported that dictatorship left as well. The republican politics were left vs. nationalist ( not necessarily royalist), were chaotic and very divided. Franco repressed Basque dissent, in Cataluña Lluis Companys was elected and declared Catalan independence within the republic, was arrested (released and into exile during civil war, returned by NS then executed). The political tensions during the second republic led to political assassinations , the nationalist army rebelled and the war started. Behind the scenes though, all of this was primed by years of social tension, revolts, lack of diplomacy etc., even the army uprising was not spontaneous but already outined before events gave impetus.
Spain then turned into something of an open air prison, atrocities by both sides, the victors continuing the theme into a “working dictatorship” , then gradual relaxation into the modern world from the 70’s on.
There is so much up in the air now that I won’t guess, just remember Rajoy is in a minority coalition, the PSOE or Ciudadanos can pull the plug. Ciudadanos is Spain/EU/Rajoysortof , PSOE is Spain/EU/Rajoynot,butfornow,andconstitutionallaw . Podemos is for Rajoy out by whatever means.
EU is out for itself and its own project, by whatever route, quite capable of catching out Spanish nationalism… but not at handling it…like Catalans, the Spanish nationalists have a mind of their own.
Catalans like most of Western Europeans have no desire for street level violence. They are not crazy to set Barcelona on fire.
I would advice them to reduce VAT, payroll and income tax rates starting with the Declaration of Independence. This would slow down the flight of a capital from soon to independent Catalonia.
Nothing highlights the benefits of diversity and multiculturalism like a civil war.
Especially when the welfare gravy train comes to a screeching halt.
This Catalonia debacle should illustrate to Americans how different things would have been had King George III forbidden the second Continental Congress to meet. 😉
Eventually it comes down to this.
Will the average Catalonian pick up a rifle, organize militarily, man a check point, conduct a patrol or conduct offensive operations.
Most men, as history has shown us, won’t do a thing.
Even if it means living in slavery. Even if it means his wife and daughters will be raped.
A modern state can be brought to a halt in hours and its knees in days.
Hit the Spanish grid, water, main roads in a concerted way.
All it needs is some planning and very few determined people. Not many.
I would never incite such actions but should they happen we could all understand why.
Make yourself a big enough nuisance and people would be glad to see the back of you.
Catalonians should boycott all relocating businesses – just to start.
Get out of the relocating banks.
I agree, strikes are slower but have the same effect also.
There won’t be a civil war like the previous I think , with maurading forces making territorial gains, but if there is conflict it will be hybrid ( punctual conflicts, media, financial, political, sabotage, low scale civilian confrontations, services, economy etc.) and not clearly defined by any kind of border. More a kind of attrition with occasional clear statements of position. Very miserable also though.
“Make yourself a big enough nuisance and people would be glad to see the back of you.”
+a million.
In the long term, the only way to avoid being governed, is to be ungovernable. Behave in such a way, that it costs any wannabe tyrant more to occupy you, than he can possibly hope to gain from the occupation. Keep that up indefinitely and relentlessly, and sooner or later, others will be more than happy to give you a broad berth and leave you alone.
Isn’t that what governments do to people?
ETA has tried terror and found out that it didn’t work. In Clombia attacks on oil infrastructure still happen in spite of the recent FARC farce “peace” deal. Now ETA is involved in the Cataluña “freedom” movement.
Dear Mish,
Independent parties account for just 47% of the catalan voters.
Therefore, the problem is between Cataluña and Spain, and also between catalans, who are divided.
Even the catalan police is divided, 5000 of the 16000 mossos would think to be transferred to spanish corps, as they don´t approve the political decisions of their political leaders. If they don´t do it is because their salaries are higher than their peers in the rest of the country.
If the catalans should be granted fiscal autonomy, as the basques, the conflict would end immediately, but it would be like granting NY or CA, a grant not to pay taxes to the federal budget.
This is not a region suffering colonial repression, as Spain is a free, democratic, society. This is just a region who half it´s citizens are just fighting to avoid transfers to their poorer neighbors in Spain.
They deserve the same respect as if NY or CA tried to do the same in the US.
90% of the people voted for Independence
Isn’t that enough?
The true figure is as good as 50/50 until a legal referendum is allowed. If yes to independence claimed over 50% of electoral census in a well supervised (even if illegal) poll then it would also be clearer.
But maybe the point is – there are a few million unhappy people who have their own point of view, and who are not being accomodated by/in Spain in a way they would like. That is not something trivial, especially given other tensions in the rest of Spain, and the limited room for maneuver Spain has as a nation…Rajoy’s direction was known when he was given a simple majority.
Have you ever seen a vote were 90% wins in a country unlike Venezuela, Russia, or Iraq? Most people there did not want this vote and did not view it as legal. You have no idea what you’re publishing on this website. I’m certainly no stateist and generally side with the people over the cops but the other side is not portrayed at all in your posts. I live in Madrid. I have family in Catalunya – Independentistas and friends there who are not and I have seen and heard the arguments from both sides. Most in Catalunya think it should be settled at some point by a referendum. Most also don’t want independence. Most also thought the vote was illegal and should’ve been stopped. The argument that Spain is facist is ridiculous – Spain is a western democracy with a supreme court that has raided the ruling party’s offices twice and thrown the king’s son in law in jail. If you want to present yourself as an analyst, then analyze!
How do you know what most wanted?
It’s pretty clear to me that most wanted to leave.
Curiously, that may not have been the case a month ago and certainly was not the case a year ago.
Most certainly did not want to stop the vote.
because I look at the numbers of voters supporting the secessionist political parties, the previous referendum and the poll numbers. and the majority are scared because a group of facists have taken over there. They have taken over the gov’t and companies and schools and if you dare say anything of another opinion you are economically and socially ostracized. When you get into the place and know the undercurrent of the situation it is very scary.
90% is a mediocre outcome, given that the catalans that favor the status quo did not attend an illegal, unverifiable vote, with no international observers, no census…
Those 2 plus million catalans are those who wanted a change in our relationship are the same 2 plus that voted for the parties that rule the region.
The videos of policemen using force was a disgrace for us all, but luckily there were no casualties. All police forces around the world tend to overreact, just think if the us police or any other would´ve done better with so many people involved.
I have no worry about a civil war neither, as the only catalans who have military training have it because they feel spaniards. The population under 40 didn´t have to attend military service as the army turned profesional two decades ago.
My guess is that the catalans will not get anything positive from this. Madrid can´t give any concessions to people who have used ilegal actions. Meanwhile, catalans right now are losing all their blue chip headquarters.
If you were right, and most people didn’t want this, the Spanish government wouldn’t have sent in the thugs to prevent voting. They would have encouraged the referendum, and encouraged people to vote to stay with Spain, and the whole population would have gone out and voted to stay. But the Spanish government knew they would lose, so they violently suppressed the vote. I read an interview of a woman who said she had gone to the polls to vote to stay with Spain, but the violence she encountered caused her to change her vote. Just an anecdote, but a plausible one. Spain has blown it; there is no taking back the violence of the Spanish state against peaceful voters; we all saw it.
The Spanish rejected the referendum out of principle I think…they did not want to process endless regional referendums, did not want people getting the idea that they could stir up dissent, ask for a referendum, and possibly secede.
?
ETA has tried terror and found out that it didn’t work. In Clombia attacks on oil infrastructure still happen in spite of the recent FARC farce “peace” deal. Now ETA is involved in the Cataluña “freedom” movement.
Two wrongs don’t make a right. Bad actions by one side don’t justify those of the other.
Kareninka, I also think sending spanish forces was a mistake, they should´ve used the catalan Mossos to enforce the law. All “thugs” behave alike, just look at videos of mossos acting against their own folk. There are hundreds like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpwWHpTf6vM
Regarding the encouragement of referendums, if there was one in Aran, they would pull out of Catalan region, as they fell Aragonese. If there was one in Villaverde de Trucios, they would join the basque country. If there was one in sirian kurdistan, they would vote like the irakian kurds. If you asked the yazidis, or the druze, they would surely vote for their own state. If you let vote certain banlieus of marseille, or some hoods in london, surely they would love to vote to be run by themselves and impose the sharia law there…
Luckily we still are in time to avoid dividing the world in small statelets divided by ethnic, racist and religious lines. We should try to evolve as wider inclusive societies, not involve back to medieval times.
Catalans should boycott all companies that change HQ residence from Catalonia. Change your bank to start, tale liquidity out and put it elsewhere.
Of course noone should be forced to pay taxes to the US Federal budget, if they preferred going it alone, without any of the services/protections the Federal government purports to offer.
The key element in this story is the “independence” of Kosovo; the ICJ ruled that it was legal to hold an independence referendum even if forbidden by the constitution, because “self-determination” rights under various international treaties take precedence over national constitutions.
Since this precedent was strongly supported by all NATO members, that invaded and bombed Yugoslavia to dismember it, such precedent obviously applies to them too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia
«Solana directed Clark to “initiate air operations in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.”»
«F/A-18 Hornets of the Spanish Air Force were the first NATO planes to bomb Belgrade»
Would that be the same General Wesley Clark who ran for President as a Democrat in 2004, and executive of GRLD – Grilled Cheese Truck, that at one time had a market cap of $100 million for assets of 10 trucks, and is now a vertically integrated cannabis-focused agriculture company that is committed to cultivating and distributing the highest quality medical and recreational cannabis. Since May 2016 our primary focus is on the cultivation and distribution of medicinal and recreational cannabis. In May 2016 we decided to discontinue our food truck operations. In September 2016 we sold our Trademarks and Intellectual Property relating to our food truck business to a former company officer in exchange 3 million shares of the company’s stock he owned upon satisfaction of the terms of the Settlement Agreements. These shares are to be held in escrow until their release.
«“The situation is very, very disturbing. A civil war is planned in the middle of Europe,” Mr. Oettinger said in Munich.»
The Yugoslav/Kosovo precedent, of first supporting a civil war in an european state, then invading and dismembering it, was I think exceptionally stupid, and was done mainly or solely to teach a lesson to Russia, that it was too weak to stop its (potential, because Yugoslavia was non-aligned) allies being reduced to rubble and dismembered, ripping up the post-WW2 principles that wars in Europe were too dangerous and that the integrity of european states should be guaranteed by all.
Those principles were replaced by the demonstration that “USA might makes right”, that multi-lateralism was dead and uni-lateralism was the new USA policy.
Many conservative USA strategists think that was a colossal mistake, ripping up the multi-lateral institutions created and dominated by the USA since WW2, and that had been such useful means of more subtle USA worldwide power.
“What’s the point in telling someone they cannot do something, you know full well they will?”
So that afterwards you can send in the military to retake the disobedient region by force, and deflect criticism by saying “we warned them!”
It’s simpler: the High Court is obliged to say to the Parliament that they have not the power to declare independence. They are doing they job, nothing else.
self determination is the fundamental humanness right.
the madrid court is in the wrong
the EU court in Strasbourg will overrule
Sounds like lots of determined people around.
No, it is not. We are talking about law reality here, not about how ‘it should be’ in your opinion. Strasbourg wont overrule because is obvious that proclamation of independence is not in the hands of the Parliament of Catalonia.
Then Strasbourg should be flippantly disregarded.
Catalan is a metapfor for Brexit. All the Franco-German empire really wants is a chunk of British taxes. They have tha gall is itemise the Eurocrats pensions as a primse. the Brits must keep. Mao said power comes out of the barrel of a gun – so where are the Eurocrat guns?
Truth in that.
I can imagine the EU ending, or strengthening, through armed conflict.
They will bring upon themselves that which they formed to avoid.
Only a matter of time, may be some considerable time away.
The only reason they want an army is to address internal threats as it will be too weak to cope with externalities, for a few years at least.
The Catalans just moved the parlament meeting to Tuesday instead.
Mish, a fact, the EU is a law unto itself and 3 things:
1) The law is what they want to recognise in order to achieve their aims.
2) If a law gets in the way of their aims they will ignore it, then change it.
3) The ECJ is an arm of the EU supranational construct and NOT impartial.
Isn’t Spain in violation of Articles in the Lisbon Treaty through its actions against its civilian population in Catalonia?
Why no sanctions against Spain?
Because the EU hierarchy tacitly agree with this violence!!!
“A bank domiciled in a Catalonia whose independence is not recognized would remain, for all legal purposes, within the territory of the monetary union, and the Bank of Spain and ECB could be in violation of the law if they denied it liquidity.”
An abomination.
Also, what has Draghi wrought you ask – precisely what the EU wanted him to.
Time for free thinking people to shout STOP, but it will make no difference.
Just goes to show that, at least in the short run, a government without armed retainers ~ a monopoly on violence ~ won’t get far…which tells us a lot about the true nature of government: coercive and authoritarian.
It’s incredible how wrong you got this issue.
1. there were not a referendum. Independentists pretend otherwise but there were not census, people voted several times, half of population didn’t vote, the results are not recognised by any country or third party organisation.
2. The government didn’t send troops, they send the police. Quite a normal thing. I’m sure that you in your respective countries have police too, and sometimes have to deal with conflicts with civilians, such as Occupy Wall Street or Ferguson.
3. The nationalists and antifa parties only have 47% of popular votes in Parlament and have a slight majority of 72 over 135 seats. Only a reckless leader can declare independence in such conditions, whithout the support of Spain, EU neither any country in the world. Oh wait! Maduro gives the support of Venezuela to the catalonian independists.
It is absurd to say there was no referendum. Absolutely there was. Over 2million people voted. I would agree that it was not legal according to the constitution.
Venezuela has nothing to do with the anything.
Thanks to the idiotic tactics of Rajoy, it is clear the majority in Catalonia want independence.
Reuters: Catalonia plans to declare independence Monday as Spain’s troops settle in, stocks sink
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/862295/Catalonia-crisis-army-Spain-troops-Barcelona-Carles-Puigdemont
It is absurd to say that there was a referendum when 60% didn’t vote. Even when people could vote several times. In 71 towns there are more ‘yes’ votes than people.
‘Venezuela’ means that not a single ‘normal’ country or organisation in the world recognizes the results of the referendum and/or supports the self determination right of Cataluña.
Perhaps you have omniscient powers, but right now it is hard to say if the majority want independence. As I told you, in the last legal election the parties for the independence (antifa included) got the 47% of the votes. Remember the elections in the USA? Remember who were more vocal, the poll numbers, and the final result.
There are no troops, again. They are policemen. And if you believe the ‘police brutality’ narrative, let me tell you that it’s not the reality.
I’m surprised by your emotional position in this issue, when you are usually so neutral and cold in complex issues as the politics in USA. I’m afraid that this bias is affecting your analysis.
40% turnout is about on par for US midterm senate elections…. It would certainly be nice if that meant we could disregard them altogether, and not have to deal with those guys for another 2 years, but that doesn’t seem to be how things work.
If it is true that the majority of Catalans don’t want independence, it won’t take all that long before the government of the newly independent Catalan state reflects this, and starts slinking back to Spain again. IOW, if Catalans don’t want independence, why would Spain waste resources and goodwill preventing them from demonstrating that for all to see?
But if they do turn out to overwhelmingly want independence; using force to prevent them from acting on that, turns Spain into nothing more than an external occupying force.
Of course, just as the Scots are free to leave the UK to stay withing the EU if they want to, it would be very hard for a newly formed Catalan state to argue sub regions, say greater Barcelona, which wanted to remain part of Spain rather than Catalonia, could not take the right of self determination a step further down the path to granularity.
“Police?”
“Troops?”
Government force is government force – no matter the label you put on it.
Unless you think beating and shooting (even rubber bullets) at other peaceful people just trying to vote their desires is not force…
I don’t see succession happening. Prior to the heavy handed interference the vote would have failed. to gain a majority. The Spanish govt should have kept out of this and let the vote happen. Then if independence won they should have negotiated with them to stay in. Now everything if fubb. If they leave, a precedent will have been set that will lead to the disintegration of the EU. The feds wouldn’t let TX leave if they voted for it and I don’t see it happening for Catalonia either.
secession
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WPZn4rbiB8g
By declaring the referendum illegal most of the Catalan citizens who support unification stayed away from the polls thereby undermining the legitimacy of the vote. We are now stuck with a referendum result that no one can say truly represents the wishes of Catalans yet there is no way to have a do-over. No matter what happens there will now be questions about legitimacy that will echo for generations.
It’s incredibly sad.
Once again -Blame Rajoy
Rajoy likely shares most of the blame, but regardless of who is at fault Spain is now stuck in a situation with no solution. Even if Spain recognized Catalonian independence there would be millions of Catalan unionists who would cry foul because they feel they never got to express their views.
No one will win and resentments are now guaranteed no matter what the outcome.
“What’s the point in telling someone they cannot do something, you know full well they will?”
probably akin to bush and blair incessantly harping on iraqi no-fly-zone infractions which were undoubtedly instigated by us and gb air force as pretext for invasion.
World history tells us what it takes to achieve independence. It gets messy. The Catalans don’t have what it takes. It’s not in their blood.
Since the Catalans want to remain in the EU my feeling is that this will fizzle out at some point and the Catalans will go another 50 years with disappointment.
OTOH, if they were really serious about independence they would move out of the EU and create their own currency. Of course they will have to assert their independence in the face of Spanish repression which would imply that the Catalan separatists would have to be willing to die. Unless they are willing to take up arms and fight the Spanish military, they’ll have to take the approach of MLK during the civil rights campaign and Gandhi during the campaign for independence in India. Take a lot of beatings and water cannons and even being shot in the streets. Do they believe in independence that much? We’ll find out soon enough.
Wildcard???
One side of this skirmish has a well equipped standing army. The other side is subject to very strict gun control. There is a difference between resistance and suicide.
If rubber rounds and economic sanctions won’t do it, NATO rounds will. TPTB can’t let the prols slip their restraints here.
This all ends in “negotiations “, and Catalans going back home and living by the rules, unless of course, they find some other means of deterrence than waving cardboard placards and going on strike.
Well, we didn’t let the Confederacy go, and if Florida or Texas voted for independence, the Federal troops would be there the next day to take over. We will see how much Abraham Lincoln the Prime Minister and King want to channel.
Boycott bullfights and Spanish peanuts.
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
If Spain, EU use the banks in Catalonia, Brexit to achieve their aims, might they not also die by a banks’ actions – the ECB.
Could apply to the UK too having taken good tax from banks, when they go it will be felt.
That 90% figure is veeery doubtful, to say the very least. No observers, no verification, and half the voters stayed away! The Catalans are softening already, and the Spanish govt can throw them a bone, a little doggie snack. End of story.
The comparison with Venezuela is absolutely relevant, becaouse there the inMaduro narcocracy did the same with the costiuyente recently.