The Financial Times reports Germany Rejects May’s Brexit Transition Hopes.
Once again, the divorce agreement is at the center stage. Germany and France insist divorce bill from EU will be resolved before tackling trade.
The Independent reports Theresa May’s Brexit plans in ruins after France and Germany ‘reject transitional arrangement’.
Earlier this week, a leading association of German businesses warned German companies operating in the UK to start preparing for a “very hard Brexit”, in which the UK left the EU with no trading arrangements in place. This would lead to the immediate imposition of large tariffs on cars and other goods, and the possibility of customs checks and huge tailbacks at Dover.
No Such Thing As “Soft Brexit”
All this talk of a “hard Brexit” is nonsense. There is no such thing as a soft Brexit given the wide differences and lines in the sand that both sides have drawn.
What remains is a debate over timeframes. Theresa May wants a two-year transition. Others want longer.
The transition period could be abrupt or lengthy. It is the transition period that can be hard or soft, not Brexit itself.
1.5 to 2 years would be over easy, any longer would be soft, and any shorter would be a hard transition.
I say get it done and be done with it.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Just leave, and skip paying the bribe…This is what happens when your leader is weak and half-hearted.
Dr. Strangepork said:
Agree….leave, develop trade elsewhere…after all, it is a big world…and tell the EU that they can have their alimony at a date to to be named at some point next millennium.
Goodbye Rump Englabd
Welcome independent Scotland, Ukster, and Wales into the EU fold
Victor Adam Smith said:
If they have a suicide wish.
Victor Adam Smith said:
Yes, the UK can just leave and tell Merkel and all her EU Storm Troopers to shove it!
gonna be leavin’ that sinkin’ ship one way or another…..things REALLY get going next year.
Remember how fast communism collapsed in the USSR?…….one month it was there and very soon it WASN’T…….dominoes fall next year.
O/T Re-comment this here as closer to the topic than where I previously posted it:
Another warm day in Spain, that looks something like a political football match without a pitch to play on. Yesterday was the “white tide” of mostly pro-independence demonstration calling for dialogue, with a few Spanish nationalist demonstrations as well. Today is Spanish nationalist protest day… a few incidents but lots of crowd.
Ron J said:
The other day Martin Armstrong asked why the bill from the EU was so high for Britain to exit, answering that it was the EU government pensions.
Are they in a “shambles”? The EU would certainly like you to think so, and is doing it very best to get over the message that that is what’s happning!
The article tries to depict Germany as the heavy, but the opposition to the UK’s stance is broad based. As a rough and ready rule, when Germany and France agree on anything, the rest of the EU generally follows precisely because the two countries typically have very different interests and priorities. Here, we have not just France and Germany in a united stance, but Germany supposedly leading a block of other countries too. It is hardly a secret that most if not all of the Eastern European countries (whose entry the UK ironically promoted aggressively, to weaken the position of Germany and France) are particularly hard line about having the UK settle its so-called exit tab first. And recall further that the exit arrangements require unanimous approval of all 27 remaining members. NC
“With Boris Johnson as prime minister, the negotiations would be easier,” one EU diplomat said of the foreign secretary, who has sniped at May’s push for a deal that could see Britain stay bound by some EU rules, at least for a transition period. “We could save ourselves all this analyzing,” the diplomat said, “As he’d just drive the talks straight off the cliff.”
“Pretty soon,” said one, “It will be Norway or nothing.”
Norway: being in the EU market and accepting rules on which is has no vote.
Problem is there is no basis whatsoever for an ‘exit tab’. The treaties are clear and make no provision for such a think. The UK will pay the sums due up until the 29th March 2019 but there after nothing is owed. And if the EU are so keen to talk ‘liabilities’ they must also talk Assets, which they refuse to do.
Dr. Strangepork said:
Germany and France want Britain to pay their unsustainable pension tab. End of story. So, yes, they are the “heavies” in the room.
Nothing has changed since the rise of the unified French state and unified Prussian Kingdom. Both want to live on the wealth of others and Britain plays them against each other to keep them out of their wallets.
It is good policy and Britain should remember why they desire “balance of power” on the continent.
The headline of the quoted article says it all, “GERMANY Rejects May’s Transition Hopes.” Germany is attempting to do with contracts, treaties, and financial institutes what Hitler could not do with a military; conquer Europe. The UK wised up, and Germany is furious that its plan is failing. Now the world sees Germany’s true colors.
2 million illegals on welfare in Germany and they expect the UK to pay for it. Just leave and let them live in the hell they created themselves.
there will be no Brexit deal with the EU.
the logical thing to do now is to cease paying 10 billion euros a year to a “partner” that culd care less about whether a deal is done or not. the EU has no intention to negotiate and even if it does “kind of” negotiate, there is zero chance that ANY deal would be ratified by 26 EU parliaments.
in fact, a Brexit deal has been done, that has gone undiscussed, unreported and unapproved by any democratic process either in the EU or the UK
here it is
agriculture – this will be maintained at WTO quotas and freezes out cheaper and better quality products available to the UK (and the EU) because of the Common Agricultural Policy, the CAP.
that’s the CAP that pays farmers not to plant, subsidizes milk and wine (creating storage lakes) AND allows spanish and dutch fishermen to fish british waters whilst banning british fishermen from their own waters.
this is a criminal act by both the EU and the UK, yet no-one has batted an eye lid.
I agree there will be no deal. The EU have behaved disgracefully.
As to the supposed ‘Deal at WTO’ as far as I understand matters the EU and UK have divided up the EUs quotas reflecting the imports into the UK and other EU states. For once it was a sensible move. I hope the USA, Australia, New Zealand etc conclude Free Trade Agreements with the UK ASAP so we can buy many of these products cheaper not on quota.
And CAP doesn’t include fish: that is the Common Fisheries Policy. That is the one responsible for the rape of UK waters by EU fishing fleets. Perhaps with ‘no deal’ it will allow fish stocks to recover.
Only problem Andrew, we need very aggressive leadership with backing of the military.
Expect hardship for a few years.
Stuki Moi said:
Britain should have simply walked out the day after the vote was ratified. They can at lest just do it now. The only people befitting from “negotiations” and drawn out processes, are politicians and lawyers and others involved in nothing more that petty court intrigue.
The whole “Britain owes money” is so silly, and so obviously so, that even entertaining it for one second, should be treated with nothing but ridicule. When/if inside the EU, Britain (in aggregate) some money flowed from Britain to the other EU countries, and some money flowed from the others to Britain. No reason to a priori assume the two didn’t roughly balance out.
Meaning, once Britain leaves, the transfers are cut both ways. Netting out to zero. The way most politicians are treating this, one would think that if every single country left the EU, somehow every single one of them would end up “owing” the remaining entity consisting of nothing but perhaps some drunk Juncker in a pub in Brussels, billions upon billions of Euros….
We should have done as this article indicates; just Left using the provision in Article 50 (1).
chris m said:
i personally voted for Brexit last year.
and have paid next to no attention of the comings and goings (shenanigans) since then.
apart from my reference point ( David Camerons resignation on following date)
(While panic ensues, one person’s musings in the comments section of the Guardian has an interesting hypothesis on these complications:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.)
so i was never going to be in the least bit surprised that it has come down to this
ie cold feet
2019 will be rough and I suspect leading to a major economic, global, slowdown or even full on depression.
The EU/Euro zone is happy as their economies have perked up under NIRP and massive QE. Unfortunately, normalise and it will slip back into a malaise.
Brexit stresses will be severe in the UK but might just be the straw that breaks the Euro back will substantial voter backlash in Germany when they get to pick-up the bill for everyone.
Populism is resting, it’s not dead.
It appears there will be no deal so the sooner we say toodle-pip the better.
No money transfer, we will need it at home.
i take it that the “populism” you reference here “Populism is resting, it’s not dead.” refers to the populism of the last 50 years of libtard socialism that has led the entire G7 to increase their debt to gdp ratios by between 50% and 100%?
i am heartily sick of living in the last fifty years of populism and want some return to common sense (fiscal surpluses to repay debt PLUS training for the substitute of imported goods).
What was followed over the last 50 years was the disastrous Reaganomics/Thatchernomics policies in the UK, and the rampant Wall St style deregulatory policies in not just the UK but other places in Europe as well. The result is the wreckage we see now all over Europe.
Liberal populism has only just started. It will go global in the coming years, as Jeremy Corbyn has stated here: “Global Populist Left Uprising” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5xfae04DPE&t=1s
I call for no defence pact either.
NATO with all countries at 2% of GDP or nothing.
Can’t say I like Trump but he was right to hit Merkel with a bill for unpaid defence costs. Germany has been free loading for years whilst not policing its own industries – diesel scandal example – and living off the weak Euro.
Whatever happens to the UK, Germany had better get its wallet out for Greece, Italy, Spain, France defence and EU infrastructure.
Interesting German workers haven’t, and won’t, see as much benefit out of their industrial performance as expected. The money will go to the EU countries and especially those sharing the Euro.
if Washington demands your proposal. The Euros will be more than happy to kick Washington out of NATO.
LOL indeed. suggest you stop hitting the hard stuff. Nato without US??
What is a “tailback”? The Brits have some unique words, completely unfamiliar to Americans.
Long queue of traffic.
These are some of the BRITISH MEPS that voted AGAINST THEIR OWN COUNTRY.
This is the level of betrayal. Tantamount to treason, voting against your own electorate and democratically elected government.
I usually agree with your comments but no sure if I agree with this one.
Although very much pro-Brexit (mainly because I believe the EU project will eventually to an ugly chaos or worse), I do think the many that are/were not pro-Brexit can have a voice in a superficially democratic Parliament. (in reality an EU fan club with very few exceptions). Not that it makes any difference…
The MEPs are (supposed to be) representatives of the people and not representatives of national governments or “consensus opinions” That some may vote a different way.
If this was a European Council vote were the UK representative voted against, I would agree with you.
This argument sounds a bit like some I hear from people that are disgusted when someone dares to take a seat in the EU parliament despite being critical of the socialist playground. I know quite a few people that “work” for the EU institutions, so am often confronted with mindless drivel.
The whole theater play will lead to no-where anyway. A hard Brexit is what will come whether we like it or not. It will be the only way a constructive negotiations can start.
Not looking forward to even more delays in Calais/Dover though. (but we have these already thanks to idiotic French protesters dissatisfied with their own government policies and therefore naturally targeting Calais instead of Paris.
High time to start improving links to Flemish and Dutch ports and say Adios Amigos to the rest of them!
Gavin Longmuir said:
While there is much to be said for making a decision and then implementing it rapidly, let’s never forget how narrow the “victory” of the Leave side was in Dear Old Blighty. This was not a 90/10 split, nor even an 80/20 vote. If one voter in 50 had voted the other way, Leave would have been defeated. Obviously, the victors in any democratic election want to make it “One man, one vote, one time”, but the nearly half the Brits who voted Stay might feel different.
The practical impact of the narrowness of the vote is that there is a limited tolerance for pain in UK society — and any Hard Brexit would certainly mean short-term pain for Brits, no matter haw rosy the promised long-term future would be.
you are rigt.
most first and second generation brits and those students that could be bothered to forsake a ballad concert (not “rock”, that would be an insult to rock) voted to remain.
there is soemthing to be said for only allowing those that voted in 1973 and their immediate familits to vote again – in much the same way that clinton got the vast majority of those paying no taxes to vote for her so that she won the “popular” vote (leaving aside the votes of dead people and multiple ballots cast by the same person(s))
Only single citizenship British should be allowed to vote or be members of Parliament.
DFXEU should only employ British citizens and no dual nationals – that may already be the case.
” (leaving aside the votes of dead people and multiple ballots cast by the same person(s))”
and the many non-citizens who voted. The DNC is doing everything it can to avoid making elections honest.
Recent large poll showed substantial shift to Leave now.
Sits at about 68% Leave.
EU plays hardball and that number goes up.
Also – vast majority of UK military and ex-vets voted Leave.
Fancy ignoring those defending the country?
Cameron was less than honest so word went out to Army, Navy, Airforce – vote Leave.
I would have more confidence in UK Gov if run by the military, they get my vote.
The British still rule the waves.
They dominate, – this huge 300 X 300 miles British island, – the ether waves, for attention and to influence our mind.
It is a phony divorce.
Ten years of in and out of bed with the major European players, flirting with them all.
Otherwise, the French Cazenove will takeover.
The 50B or 60B divorce bill should not be a big deal.
This will be further down once UK is out.
Not only does the EU want to centralise and control, it’s actually shrinking as a % of world trade EVEN ALLOWING for German export prowess.
Medex Man said:
This is why Brexit is going to happen. Its why the EU is going to dissolve entirely. You can argue about the timing, but not the outcome. It will have ever declining relevance.
Ergo, Theresa May or the more practical person who replaces her, needs to focus on expanding trade outside of the dying EU. Maybe the EU dies next year, maybe it holds out for a few years — but its dying either way. Why waste negotiating resources on something that won’t last?
David Cameron didn’t want Brexit — that’s why he is gone. Some people loved him, some hated him … but he didn’t want to accept the reality that the EU is not going to make it. So he had to go. Simple as that.
Theresa May’s honeymoon period is over. She is going to get with Brexit or she is going to get replaced. Its not personal, its business
Germany and France are just trying to bully us (British) into submission. They think that if they shout loud enough and issue big enough threats then Britain will have a change of heart, there will be a popular uprising and we will go crawling back cap in hand begging for forgiveness. The way our shitweasel politicians are currently behaving, they might just succeed. I keep hoping for something – just something – to give in Europe, just to bring the whole little shitshow down. But it seems I wait in vain.
perhaps it is a ploy by the Bremainers (including May) to look so incompetent that brits will prefer to be ruled by complete idiots in brussels rather than utter idiots in westminster.
Fear abounds. Cameron ran away through fear and being bought to book for Libya.
I can’t believe the British Secret Services don’t have enough dirt on EU leaders to not be able to bring them to heel. Corruption, bordello visitors, you name it.
The thought had crossed my mind!
Answer to Peter’s above
Mish et al,
EU corruption report. Where does the money go?
Strict independant auditing would be a start.
If you know enough names you will find corruption linked to some.
Junker is unfit for office if you know his history & he is leading the EU.
Why shelve the corruption report?
Because it’s rife at all levels?
Too close to the top for comfort?
Michael Surkan said:
Brexit could be a success in theory, but only if managed properly. Unfortunately, Britain’s current batch of political leaders don’t have their heart in the endeavour and are therefore only doing a half-hearted job of it. The totally chaos we face now in which business is in utter confusion is the result.
The sad fact is that Britain doesn’t have either the political unity or competent leadership to pull off a successful Brexit.
Politicians don’t make a country, they hang off the coat-tails of the common people and of business. Have more confidence in the real power in Britain. Think like the most dynamic city in the the east if not the world, Hong Kong – founded on British know-how, British idea of fairness and of it’s common and mercantile law and Chinese trading naus.
Medex Man said:
I keep saying this, and its still true… Theresa May (or whomever replaces her?) needs to put 110% of her energy into trade agreements with Commonwealth countries, with southeast Asia, with Latin America, with Africa. Forget about Europe for awhile — Europe has a LONG list of serious problems and can’t be a rational counter-party for England, even if Merkel and Juncker were to go away.
A year and a half from now, as June 2019 approaches, Europe might still not have its act together — the chaos in Spain / Catalonia strongly suggests Europe’s problems are worse than England feared.
Even if Europe got its act together (which is a long shot and getting longer)…. from a demographic standpoint the EU is an elderly and shrinking market. Why waste time “fighting” to maintain that rubbish, when so many other bigger and better markets exist?
Theresa May needs to refocus her attention away from EU. Best case scenario, England might be treading water. More likely, UK will be expending more and more resources on a shrinking market. And the possibility that the EU erupts into widespread “civil war” (dissolving itself the hard way) cannot be ruled out.
The EU is an errant child screaming for attention it doesn’t deserve — and giving it unwarranted attention just feeds the temper tantrums. It distracts England (and the world) away from more important items. And with all the extra attention the EU is taking, it seems to be headed for civil war in spite of the added attention (or maybe BECAUSE Brussels is getting attention it should not).
Meanwhile, potential trading partners in Asia, Latin America, Africa and middle east are inexplicably getting less attention? That makes zero sense.
England should just ignore the EU for the time being. Hard Brexit happens in June 2019 even if negotiations fail (which they will). Plan for that, and focus all attention on bigger and growing trade markets instead.
Theresa May needs to change course or she’ll be out soon
Michael Surkan said:
Unfortunately, there are no viable leaders for any of Britain’s political parties who would have their hearts sufficiently into Brexit to do it properly. The openly pro-Brexit politicians are just too marginalized in their own parties to be able to seize leadership. Odds are that May would be replaced with an even more tepid Brexiter. Full blooded Brexiters like Johnson and Gove are just too marginalized within the Tory caucus.
Brexit is going to be a disaster because the only politicians with a chance of actually leading the government don’t have their hearts in it.
Medex Man said:
More practical people know Brexit happened in spite of UK leadership, not because of it. The EU is an epic failure, an example of greedy and selfish bureaucrats high on a power trip.
I disagree with your opinion that England’s citizens don’t want to leave — but it really doesn’t matter what either of us think on that. The EU isn’t viable as is.
England is leaving the EU — so is every other EU member state.
And given that practical reality, Theresa May has to choose between fighting the tide from coming in (which she will lose sooner or later) — or she can refocus on trade deals in growing markets. No guarantee of victory there either, but at least England has a chance.
You have a long history on this blog of advocating big government even when the recipients of that tyranny don’t want it. F you and your Obamacare crime. And the same for your tyrannical dictats toward Europe. Go mind your own business and stop messing up everyone else’s lives you miserable socialist. No one gave you permission to mess up our lives.
Britain, as a previous maritime power with the built in flexibility of trading on a worldwide scale with diverse nationalities would do well to look towards the new power base in Eurasia and it’s own previous Commonwealth of Nations. The city of London’s heartbeat would hardly pause as it is already deals on a global scale,
Europe incapable of flexibility and ringed by single minded protectionist autocrats subservient to the Euro-dollar will fall further behind and that’s happening now.
Medex Man said:
But too many people on this blog arguing about their feelings / politics, while ignoring the practical reality of the situation.
David Cameron did not want Brexit, and tried to drag his feet as long as he could. It happened in spite of him, not because of him.
The EU is not viable as is, and everyone knows it even if some people don’t want to admit as much to themselves.
England, as you say, is already accustomed to global trade, not the over-regulated stagnant cesspool that is the EU.
Richard Conboy said:
Hey, Britain, just leave. Layoff all your bureaucrats in the 1002 taxing authorities in the EU and just leave