UK prime minister Theresa May has finally had enough of EU unending intransigence. May went on the offensive by telling EU leaders The Ball’s In Your Court.
Theresa May will warn European leaders today that Britain will make no more concessions on Brexit until they compromise on opening trade and transition talks.
The embattled prime minister will use a statement to the House of Commons to tell other member states that “the ball is in their court” as British negotiators return to Brussels.
She will also implicitly warn of the risk of talks breaking down, calling for both sides to be constructive and “prove the doomsayers wrong”.
Downing Street pointed out yesterday that neither the EU as a whole nor Michel Barnier, its chief negotiator, had ever defined what “sufficient progress” meant and said this would be a decision for national leaders alone to make.
The statement is also a sign that after days of turmoil and talk of leadership challenges Mrs May is in no position to make further concessions on money without tangible progress on the UK’s key demands.
Michael Gove has added to the pressure on Mrs. May by demanding in cabinet that fisheries policy is not included in any no-change transition deal.
The environment secretary is privately arguing that fishing policy must be repatriated as soon as Britain leaves the EU and not at the end of a two-year implementation period.
It’s about time May stood up to the EU.
- Long ago I raised the threat of closing UK waters to EU fishing boats.
- As I also pointed out, the UK ought to threaten lowering its corporate tax rate as well.
- Finally, if there is no transition period, May should again reiterate the EU will get a divorce settlement of precisely zero.
Those three points qualify as sufficient “progress” in my book. Progress that May has finally had enough and makes it known the UK will not roll over and played for patsies.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
When will the accension applicantions from Scotland, Wales, and Ulster be accepted in Brussels ?
London has zero leverage in Brexit negotiations.
First they need to schedule a secession vote for leaving GB. Should they do so, they would need to decide on a currency; I assume (always dangerous) that would mean going to the euro in this context. That entails its own headaches and some planning.
London has fishing rights leverage, as well as banking leverage. No one is running from the City despite the BS. There is also the rest of the Commonwealth to trade with, and I suspect the EU would not want a trade embargo.
I thought Wales voted leave? Looking on line I see nothing to indicate otherwise. Northern Ireland leaving would simplify things for London, in terms of customs/border control. I wonder what Dublin would think? 🙂 Would Ireland finally unite?
Exactly backwards… the EU has zero leverage.
UK can develop unilateral trade deals… EU can’t stop them.
Europe is courting Ulster, Scotland & Wales? Good riddance. The EU would be doing the UK a favor by accepting these dependent welfare regions… hardly leverage… more like incentive to exit, asap.
Scotland going to EU, whilst looking to maintain financial position they have with current subsidies from England, might cost EU 15Bn Euro p.a.
That figure is no firm but Scotland is a net cost.
It is also before any move by Edinburgh based fund industry moving South to come out from under EU control and future Financial Transaction Tax.
vooch, Wales voted to Leave.
If what I have read is correct, the most recent poll of opinions show increased Leave bias now towards 68%.
Any inexpressible by the UK side is easily matched by the EU. Every time the EU makes comments the Leave case strengthens. Any Gov paying to Leave is dead in the water as the electorate won’t stand for it. It has to go through Parliament and any voting OK to it will be on the shit list with the voters – called DEMOCRACY.
EU wouldn’t understand that concept.
The EU owe the UK for share of assets and cash in the European Development Bank/Fund.
UK has tremendous economic leverage as the best luxury market in Europe. Germany and France would instantly enter a depression if trade were cut off…..Time to threaten total and absolute cutting of ties.
They should just announce that they are leaving on January 1, 2018 and be done with it.
That should give everyone just enough advance notice to allow them to plan around the event.
The EU is a basket case, the sooner they leave the better.
It is not an act of kindness to hang a man slowly rather than quickly.
Tony Bennett said:
“neither the EU as a whole nor Michel Barnier, its chief negotiator,”
Need to trot Rajoy out of the bullpen …
Once you got it you never want to let go.
It still was a very tame speech – far too tame for my liking. I really wish she would give over on the ‘deep and special relationship’ meme. We have seen over recent weeks how effective our ‘special relationship’ with the US is, considering the Trump administrations 300% trade tariffs on Bombardier aircraft. It all wears a little thin after a while. I enjoy the company of, and respect the views of Europeans from all quarters enormously; but so far as the political entity of the European Union is concerned, I wish it a generous and fatal dose of the bubonic plague.
Donald Last said:
Its quite clear that Brexit is going to happen because UK govt now getting down to the nitty-gritty of setting up computerised tariffs and duties with the baseline being WTO. As one observer pointed out:
WTO tariffs – apart from farm produce – are quite low – averaging at 4%
Sterling has fallen by 17% – so all things being equal UK goods and services will be 13% cheaper – than they were.
By comparison EU goods and services will be 21% more expensive.
Looks a WIN WIN situation.
I think this could be the straw that breaks the camels back.
World trade vols are already weakening and when economy #6 and EU get into a spat it could tip the apple cart over.
Do you believe the Euro area can cope with one of it largest trading partners going off line? Think again.
Draghi will have to buy even more crap every month. There is going to be a lot of shit hitting the fan.
The UK’s present system for handling non-EU-related trade is almost 25 years old and was set for replacement. The new system, called CDS for Customs Declaration System, to be ready by 2018 and to have the capacity to handle 100 million transactions. At double the current level of 50 million, that would have seemed to be ample headroom.
Reading between the lines of the Financial Time story, there seems to be some doubt as to whether the original spec could have been pulled off in time. But now with Brexit, the project suddenly has a major spec change: it has to handle 350 million transactions.
And what the story does not mention, but seems likely to be the case, is that there are tons of other spec changes that have yet to be identified and documented related to EU and UK tariffs on specific goods. And if the system tracks things like port of embarkation and disembarkation, more data fields need to be added for all the EU ports and air cargo locations. And of course, the Euro currency data field needs to go in too.
In addition, since the negotiations will be in progress, the levels, and potentially even some of the categories are likely to be in flux. Given that olives are a very important export good for the EU, how will olives be treated versus olive oil versus products made from olives, like olive paste? Will green olives be treated differently than ripe ones? How all this sorts out affects the coding.
Good luck with this IT project – outcome will be like the Obamacare launch….
The IT will be least of the problems but the money (billions) will be made available after Christmas and I gather there is assistance available from countries outside the EU that want easier UK market access.
Another wait and see.
Maybe Nial Farage’s speech was May’s wakeup call that appeasing a bully is unwinnable.
Gavin Longmuir said:
The EU is unlovely and generally unloved. But old Mrs May sits on top of an almost evenly divided polity. And many of her citizens love their vacations & second homes in the better climates of France, Spain, Italy, Greece. Until those polities also seriously think about reforming the EU, the EU has a lot of leverage over May.
On a longer-term horizon, the UK is dangerously over-dependent on earnings from the City of London. Many other places would like a piece of those earnings — not just Frankfurt & New York; investors in Abu Dhabi, Singapore, and China would be happy to do business closer to home. Again, the EU has leverage.
No surprises here. every teenager learns it is easier to get into a relationship than to get out of it. If May led a united country with a strong majority ready to accept near-term pain to get out of the EU, she could move ahead with confidence. But she does not.
Foolhardy brinkmanship, it’s the nouveau negotiators success tactic that everyone is copying.
Yancey Ward said:
I still think the negotiations are charade. When the two sides “fail” to come to an agreement, a hard Brexit will be the only option on the table, and then, and only then, will the Tory government propose a 2nd referendum by insisting that the first one wasn’t valid because “hard Brexit” was what the people thought they were voting for the first time.
The referendum question was very clear as was Cameron et al as to what a vote to Leave meant. There are speeches and videos to prove it.
The only Brexit that makes sense is a hard one else it’s not Brexit?
2019, the world caves in.
Euro is only holding together because of Germany, NIRP and QE.
People tend to forget what the ECB is doing to help keep it together and how dependent Germany is on a weak Euro
Add substantial trade stress with loss of major export market and it’s finished.
It’s share of world trade has been falling and X-UK it’s even lower and exports to the UK will fall too.
German tax payers better be willing to bail-out the others. Italian, Greek, Spanish & French pensions just to start. Falls straight into the hands of AfD.
Populism isn’t dead, just having a nap.
Wait and see.
It’s too late for the Euro to survive as is.
Depression straight ahead.
Brexit will just help it along a little sooner.
Just to make it clear.
There is a major event coming 2019 and much of what has gone before will change. Brexit isn’t the cause but might be the butterfly wings or the straw.
Don’t expect markets to crack yet. Wobble yes.
2019-2022 will scar generations to come and somehow the Euro is in the centre of it. Indeed, Draghi has wrought a monumental mess and the bills will be huge. German tax payers will be on the hook for many 100’s Bns.
Great Britain has enough navy to keep the Spanish Armada out of Great Britain’s fishing waters.
“Soft Exit” requires all members agree, and that just ain’t gonna happen.
Medex Man said:
Fighting to maintain access to a declining market is stupid. For the same amount of effort, England can expand trade with growing markets in Asia, Africa, middle east, and latin America.
Meanwhile, as Germany’s economy gets strangled by illegal immigration and accompanying crime waves — the EU’s economic lifeline is crumbling.
It makes no sense to waste time on a declining market with bad demographics, and even less sense to waste time on a market who’s sugar daddy is in collapse.
Quite simply, if Germany doesn’t deal with its immigration crisis — then its not worth ANYONE’s time to negotiate with Brussels. The EU isn’t going to be around long enough to conclude negotiations.
Rising Middle Class Wages
Löw Debt levels
Yeah – ready to fall apart
Medex Man said:
They have a trade surplus with countries that cannot (are not able to) pay.
Everything else you wrote is wrong.
Medex Man said:
And I notice you didnt’ mention a word about the many native Germans that no longer feel safe in their own towns — raping of women and children, muggings, burglaries, beatings of Christians for “violating” Sharia “laws”… and polizei who won’t enforce German law because when they do the piggie in Berlin turns around and lets the criminal go while scolding officers.
If you think that Syrians have the same work ethic as Germans, please explain why Syria’s economic situation (before Hillary and Obama intervened) wasn’t better than Germany.
Go ahead. We’ll wait while you make a complete @$$ of yourself.
Europe needs native Germany to survive, or Europe does not survive. Period. Amen. End of discussion. Europe’s welfare model needs a large group to be taxed and to subsidize all the welfare — without native German industry, Europe is in collapse.
It is precisely what will cause the problem.
German surplus is other countries deficit.
It will tear EU apart unless they share excess big time and will German tax payers do that?
The whole EU is set up for Germany to dominate. With financial centre moving to Frankfurt the domination will be complete. Trouble will ensue.
Medex Man said:
Not saying its good or bad — but a system where Germany exports (runs trade surpluses) and those surpluses get used to finance endless welfare under Berlin’s direction…. that is a potentially stable system even if it is unfair. You have both input and output in balance at the aggregate level, even if wealth disparity within the system gets worse.
But a system where everyone sits around and robs their neighbor? Where one religion (doesn’t matter which one) beats up everyone else? A system where police are afraid to enforce any laws, because the politicians undermine them?
There is a reason Syria hasn’t been a dominant economic player in centuries (and Jordan, and Iraq, and …). Those immigrants are leaving their native countries behind, risking their lives to leave — because those systems don’t work.
If Germany doesn’t work, Europe doesn’t work. Not arguing about the fairness of the German mercantile system, I am saying Syria couldn’t even support itself, much less the rest of the EU.
Whirled Peas said:
Just set a date and go. Let the bullies in Brussels try to stop the Britts.